churchill Posted April 12, 2009 Share Posted April 12, 2009 Both politically and finacially . How can Thailand be relied on by its neighbours after this fiasco . The Thais must be becoming increasingly emdarassed by this situation . The effects on tourism and investment will higher than the last PAD demonstrations IMO . China planned $10 billion invest fund at failed summit http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/id...E53B08A20090412 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AsiaMB Posted April 12, 2009 Share Posted April 12, 2009 More than that, international respect and safety concerns.... no foreign dignitary will set foot into Thailand, and once again tourism will plummet....... Both politically and finacially .How can Thailand be relied on by its neighbours after this fiasco . The Thais must be becoming increasingly emdarassed by this situation . The effects on tourism and investment will higher than the last PAD demonstrations IMO . China planned $10 billion invest fund at failed summit http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/id...E53B08A20090412 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamlangjai Posted April 12, 2009 Share Posted April 12, 2009 Both politically and finacially .How can Thailand be relied on by its neighbours after this fiasco . The Thais must be becoming increasingly emdarassed by this situation . The effects on tourism and investment will higher than the last PAD demonstrations IMO . China planned $10 billion invest fund at failed summit http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/id...E53B08A20090412 As the buggers are charging 150 baht to take your own money out of an ATM I dont care how much it costs them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
micky44 Posted April 12, 2009 Share Posted April 12, 2009 well i for one will be checking what the bht is doing againts the £ tomorrow !!! but if its owt like the circus performance at the air port last year the bht will be even stronger!!! makes no sence really,but and i know theres lots of talk about strong bht, but it is going to go down, big stlye, just wait and see my friends, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eldar1 Posted April 12, 2009 Share Posted April 12, 2009 It's too early to tell what the total damage of the latest round of mob violence is. I think that it will shave at least 0.5% gdp off of the current year and maybe 0.75% off of the next year. My reasoning is that while the short term things will be bad, the canceled deals and loss of foreign investor confidence will eat a significantly larger share of future gdp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pib Posted April 12, 2009 Share Posted April 12, 2009 Damage to the country's image by the Yellow Shirts a few months ago and now further/equal damage by the Red Shirts....bottom-line the damage is major and will cause approx a 1-2% GDP reduction over the next few years due to the political turmoil. Throw in the worldwide financial mess and it does not paint a pretty picture for Thai economic growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted April 12, 2009 Share Posted April 12, 2009 How Much Will This Political Crisis Cost Thailand who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hhgz Posted April 13, 2009 Share Posted April 13, 2009 After the tsunami, the average BKK property price drop was 0%. After the removal of Thaksin, the average BKK property price drop was 0%. After the yellow shirt demonstration, the average BKK property price drop was 0%. After the red shirt protest, I predict that the the average BKK property price drop will be twice as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingobongo Posted April 13, 2009 Share Posted April 13, 2009 After the tsunami, the average BKK property price drop was 0%. After the removal of Thaksin, the average BKK property price drop was 0%. After the yellow shirt demonstration, the average BKK property price drop was 0%. After the red shirt protest, I predict that the the average BKK property price drop will be twice as much. you silly sod, you forgot to include the baht devaluation that is coming, opportunity and real cost to maintain empty units, and the inability to sell at all......viola, a capital trap, so there is in fact a "drop", so you might as well......oh never mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2oDunc Posted April 13, 2009 Share Posted April 13, 2009 The Foreign Office today urged Britons planning to travel to the 'Land of Smiles' to 'urgently review' their plans. Thaksin is also calling for a full blown revolution. A bad report in the Mail today wont help the tourism from the UK. link here http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/...ng-PM-flee.html Happy Songkran then ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSnake Posted April 13, 2009 Share Posted April 13, 2009 My guess Billions and billions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
churchill Posted April 13, 2009 Author Share Posted April 13, 2009 Thai Baht Declines, Debt Rating at Risk Amid Protests http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted April 13, 2009 Share Posted April 13, 2009 Thai Baht Declines do i finally need reading glasses? where's the decline? i see the Baht strengthening vs. US-Dollar since march 1, 2009 http://isht.comdirect.de/html/detail/main....8&range.y=7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted April 13, 2009 Share Posted April 13, 2009 After the tsunami, the average BKK property price drop was 0%. After the removal of Thaksin, the average BKK property price drop was 0%. After the yellow shirt demonstration, the average BKK property price drop was 0%. After the red shirt protest, I predict that the the average BKK property price drop will be twice as much. you silly sod, you forgot to include the baht devaluation that is coming... when exactly is this devaluation coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
churchill Posted April 13, 2009 Author Share Posted April 13, 2009 That's logic for you which markets don't have - usually doing the opposite of what one would expect - give it a week or so !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eldar1 Posted April 13, 2009 Share Posted April 13, 2009 After the tsunami, the average BKK property price drop was 0%. After the removal of Thaksin, the average BKK property price drop was 0%. After the yellow shirt demonstration, the average BKK property price drop was 0%. After the red shirt protest, I predict that the the average BKK property price drop will be twice as much. Would this possibly only pertain to your condo which you are trying to sell. I.e what ever happens you don't drop the selling price Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted April 13, 2009 Share Posted April 13, 2009 That's logic for you which markets don't have - usually doing the opposite of what one would expect - give it a week or so !! Churchill, i am not completely mistaken most expats (and that includes me) are waiting since 4 or more YEARS for a devaluation. we had a military coup, we had considerable political problems, we had the yellow shirts paralysing airtraffic and the red shirts throwing stones and molotov cocktails. nothing really happened and the five year lows v. EUR, GBP and USD are still far beyond reach. but you think in "a week or so" some devaluation will happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
churchill Posted April 13, 2009 Author Share Posted April 13, 2009 I did not say devaluation . But I think the baht will weaken now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgriffith Posted April 13, 2009 Share Posted April 13, 2009 Sounds like wishful thinking to me, Winston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
churchill Posted April 13, 2009 Author Share Posted April 13, 2009 I have investments here as well as the Uk so - If it goes up it goes up - If it goes down it goes down . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave_boo Posted April 13, 2009 Share Posted April 13, 2009 Thai Baht Declinesdo i finally need reading glasses? where's the decline? i see the Baht strengthening vs. US-Dollar since march 1, 2009 http://isht.comdirect.de/html/detail/main....8&range.y=7 Herr Naam, I hope you're wrong (even though I do enjoy your postings) because I get paid in USD. And considering it's only 0,6 off of what the high in March was, the fact that it had a 1 day gain of >0,26 perhaps it will keep going up. I'm not a financial guru, but going back through those charts it seemed like when the USD lost ground it lost it in a big way; 0,5-1,0 THB really quickly. It seems to have been fluttering 0,05-0,1 THB differences for a while, so this jump has me excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jumnien Posted April 13, 2009 Share Posted April 13, 2009 This crisis will save hundreds of lives that otherwise would have been lost in the usual drunken Songkran Slaughter on the Thai highways! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted April 13, 2009 Share Posted April 13, 2009 Thai Baht Declinesdo i finally need reading glasses? where's the decline? i see the Baht strengthening vs. US-Dollar since march 1, 2009 http://isht.comdirect.de/html/detail/main....8&range.y=7 Herr Naam, I hope you're wrong (even though I do enjoy your postings) because I get paid in USD. And considering it's only 0,6 off of what the high in March was, the fact that it had a 1 day gain of >0,26 perhaps it will keep going up. I'm not a financial guru, but going back through those charts it seemed like when the USD lost ground it lost it in a big way; 0,5-1,0 THB really quickly. It seems to have been fluttering 0,05-0,1 THB differences for a while, so this jump has me excited. Dave, it would indeed be nice if i was wrong as the lion share of my expenses are in Baht. there is also no doubt (in my mind) that the Baht will weaken in the coming months. the question remains "vs. which currency?" and "to what extent?" the resident currency experts expect a weakening since several years and every other day a guru pops up, paints the gloomiest picture of Thailand's economy and predicts a crash of the Baht "any time from now" because that scenario fits his wishful thinking and/or his wet dreams. most amusing are some of the fancy reasons given for the predictions, such as... "Brazilian Real has weakened too". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BygonKeaw Posted April 13, 2009 Share Posted April 13, 2009 That's logic for you which markets don't have - usually doing the opposite of what one would expect - give it a week or so !! Churchill, i am not completely mistaken most expats (and that includes me) are waiting since 4 or more YEARS for a devaluation. we had a military coup, we had considerable political problems, we had the yellow shirts paralysing airtraffic and the red shirts throwing stones and molotov cocktails. nothing really happened and the five year lows v. EUR, GBP and USD are still far beyond reach. but you think in "a week or so" some devaluation will happen? whats all this we? its them not we! Bloody hel_l i hate these thai wanna b's. what about the 4 year thing to?? i havent been waiting that long, not unless i lost a couple of years somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hhgz Posted April 14, 2009 Share Posted April 14, 2009 "whats all this we? its them not we!" Absolutely true. When Thaksin was PM, many farangs complained about what "he" doing to "them". It's comical how the farangs feel that Thailand is their country, and then complain about immigrants in their home countries changing the status quo. Hypocrisy, ignorance, and desperation rolled into a single human being is an ugly sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyphuketLife Posted April 14, 2009 Share Posted April 14, 2009 "whats all this we? its them not we!"Absolutely true. When Thaksin was PM, many farangs complained about what "he" doing to "them". It's comical how the farangs feel that Thailand is their country, and then complain about immigrants in their home countries changing the status quo. Hypocrisy, ignorance, and desperation rolled into a single human being is an ugly sight. Their you go grouping all farangs into one group... shame... Some farags complained about what "he" doing... Some farang complain about immigrants in thier home country... NOT ALL FARANG in both cases above... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted April 14, 2009 Share Posted April 14, 2009 "whats all this we? its them not we!"Absolutely true. When Thaksin was PM, many farangs complained about what "he" doing to "them". It's comical how the farangs feel that Thailand is their country, and then complain about immigrants in their home countries changing the status quo. Hypocrisy, ignorance, and desperation rolled into a single human being is an ugly sight. do you know any farang who feels that Thailand is "his/her" country? i don't! moreover, nobody can deny that farangs living in Thailand have experienced the military coup, the political problems, paralysed Suvarnabhumi and recently the stone and molotov cocktail throwing. i therefore suggest to switch on brains in order avoid ridiculous statements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeaceBlondie Posted April 14, 2009 Share Posted April 14, 2009 The more things change, the less they change. BKK property values, the baht, rents, etc. It is as if Thailand is immune to basic economic forces such as supply and demand. Unless the sky falls. It looked pretty fallen yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lancelot Posted April 14, 2009 Share Posted April 14, 2009 (edited) The more things change, the less they change. BKK property values, the baht, rents, etc. It is as if Thailand is immune to basic economic forces such as supply and demand. Unless the sky falls. It looked pretty fallen yesterday. Things do work differently here. Back in the US "motivated" sellers (bankrupt, divorce, illness) will usually heavily discount their properties to move them. Many properties here are owned by rich Thais that will simply sit tight until the market recovers. I think Thailand would have to experience a depression similar to the US in 1932 for this to change. Then again, probably no change even then Edited April 14, 2009 by Lancelot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AsiaMB Posted April 14, 2009 Share Posted April 14, 2009 Both politically and finacially .How can Thailand be relied on by its neighbours after this fiasco . The Thais must be becoming increasingly emdarassed by this situation . The effects on tourism and investment will higher than the last PAD demonstrations IMO . China planned $10 billion invest fund at failed summit http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/id...E53B08A20090412 THAI people dont give a shit about what anyone else thinks outside Thailand, because they are too stupid to understand the link between their own job, employment, foreign tourism and employment and foreign investment..... maybe one day the penny will drop.. like when 2-3 Million Thai people are unemployed !!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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