If A General-election Were Held Now ...

[Ricardo]

There have been calls for a new General-Election since last November, when it became clear that the PPP might be dissolved by the courts, and the PPP-led coalition-government might then fall.

Both PM-Somchai then, and now PM-Abhisit, have refused to call a general-election.

But if there were to be one, called now and held in 90 days, what do TV-posters believe the result might be ? What is the current view of the general electorate ?

I'm especially interested in whether people think that there would again be a Democrat-led coalition in power ?

And if the Red-Shirts or Yellow-Shirts ran as a party, would either one attract any significant support, which I've set as being 5% of the total votes cast, or would they both be insignificant ?

What do you think ?

[skipvice]

it don't matter. it will be same same only different.

[rogercw]

I am far from an authority on Thai politics but I will prognosticate anyway. Under whatever name it may use, the party supporting (fronting for) Thaksin would get the largest number of votes but not a majority. The leadership of the next government would then be determined by bargaining and deal making by Thai politicians as in any other parliamentary country. Result unpredictable.

[LawnGnome]

I am far from an authority on Thai politics but I will prognosticate anyway. Under whatever name it may use, the party supporting (fronting for) Thaksin would get the largest number of votes but not a majority. The leadership of the next government would then be determined by bargaining and deal making by Thai politicians as in any other parliamentary country. Result unpredictable.

The most telling indicator of this question was the Jan. By-elections, where the PTP lost huge ground, on the Dems and Newin's faction.

If an election were held today, Dems might pick up 10-15 seats, but PTP would lose at least 50 members (Defecting) to Newin's Bhum Jai Thai.

[Ulysses G.]

I am far from an authority on Thai politics but I will prognosticate anyway. Under whatever name it may use, the party supporting (fronting for) Thaksin would get the largest number of votes but not a majority. The leadership of the next government would then be determined by bargaining and deal making by Thai politicians as in any other parliamentary country. Result unpredictable.

Agreed!

[PhilHarries]

It is largely irrelevant this western democracy style of thinking, there will be no landslide for anybody. It's not like the UK (Conservative vs Labour) or the USA (Democrats vs Republicans) in Thailand there are a whole raft of parties with no particular allegiance to anyone or anything. The only thing they crave is a share of the spoils of power and they will dance with the devils to get their slice of pie. It's not like any party publishes any manifesto of any substance so they are free to slide around as they see fit the only goal being to get to the table. Parties are born, dissolved and reformed much like flocks of starlings swooping in the evening sun there is no long term shape to the formations just ever changing patterns against the sky.

[Koo82]

Once in power, Democrat Party won't want to lose. They don't want any election. I don't know what people in Parliarment will come up with.

[dbrenn]

It is largely irrelevant this western democracy style of thinking, there will be no landslide for anybody. It's not like the UK (Conservative vs Labour) or the USA (Democrats vs Republicans) in Thailand there are a whole raft of parties with no particular allegiance to anyone or anything. The only thing they crave is a share of the spoils of power and they will dance with the devils to get their slice of pie. It's not like any party publishes any manifesto of any substance so they are free to slide around as they see fit the only goal being to get to the table. Parties are born, dissolved and reformed much like flocks of starlings swooping in the evening sun there is no long term shape to the formations just ever changing patterns against the sky.

Agreed your views on the disloyalty and lack of quality of Thai pols, and it's nice to see you joining in on political discussions again

[Ricardo]

Once in power, Democrat Party won't want to lose. They don't want any election. I don't know what people in Parliarment will come up with.

I don't think any party, once in power, wants to lose. The question was, if there were to be an election, what would its result currently be. Not whether an election was likely to be held, I don't see why there should need to be one, with a secure coalition in control, at present.

I must admit that I am surprised, that so many people think that either the UDD or PAD are so popular, that they would get a 5% share of the vote. I myself don't think either would do well, running against the existing well-organised well-financed big parties, as I see both as fringe-groups not mainstream.

[rixalex]

the party supporting (fronting for) Thaksin would get the largest number of votes but not a majority

Agreed!

I think both you guys greatly under-estimate how tarnished Thaksin's name now is thanks to the actions of the last week or so. He's become a joke and even his once loyal supporters are far less vocal these days.

The best chance the PTP, or whatever they call themselves, have is by distancing themselves from him - if they did that i do think they'd have a shot, but not a good one. And the longer that Abhisit stays in power, the harder it will become for them, as he starts to implement more populist policies and proves his abilities as a leader.

[rixalex]

I must admit that I am surprised, that so many people think that either the UDD or PAD are so popular, that they would get a 5% share of the vote. I myself don't think either would do well, running against the existing well-organised well-financed big parties, as I see both as fringe-groups not mainstream.

I'm surprised too.

[Ulysses G.]

I know several Thai businessmen who are interested in politics and are willing to discuss their feelings with a farang and are usually right. Neither one is supportive of what the reds did last week, but, I asked them point blank if Thaksin's Party would win an election right now and they both immediately said yes.

It is really their opinion, not mine.

[Gary A]

The democrats need some time to throw a few crumbs to the Issan farmers. Abhisit could make the farmers forget Thaksin by paying some attention that poorest group of people in Thailand. Unfortunately, I'm not sure the rich elite would allow that. The political plan is to keep the farmers ignorant, poor and manipulated to allow the rich to get even richer.

[ozzydom]

As in previous elections ,it will depend solely upon who has the deepest pockets and the best network for doling out the 1000 baht notes.

[rixalex]

I know several Thai businessmen who are interested in politics and are willing to discuss their feelings with a farang and are usually right. Neither one is supportive of what the reds did last week, but, I asked them point blank if Thaksin's Party would win an election right now and they both immediately said yes.

It is really their opinion, not mine.

In your posts Ulysses, you regularly mention the thoughts of Thai people you come in contact with and they always seem to have pretty much exactly the same opinion as you. Is it a mere coincidence?

Edited April 17, 2009 by rixalex

[Ulysses G.]

No coincidence. I am not Thai, so when it comes to Thailand and Thai politics, I listen to Thai people that I know and respect. Seems like common sense to me.

[rixalex]

No coincidence. I am not Thai, so when it comes to Thailand and Thai politics, I listen to Thai people that I know and respect. Seems like common sense to me.

Really? You need to be Thai to come to an opinion of your own?

I'm sorry but i don't think for one minute that you haven't already a clear idea yourself of where you stand politically before you meet these "respected" people - you respect them because they share your opinion. Perhaps, were they to tell you what a corrupt selfish idiot Thaksin was and what a fool you've been for wasting so much time on Thaivisa defending him, suddenly you wouldn't be refering to them as people you respect. Or would you? Please do tell me i'm wrong.

[Ulysses G.]

Please do tell me i'm wrong.

OK. that's easy. You are wrong. In fact, you are pretty much always wrong.

Edited April 17, 2009 by Ulysses G.

[rixalex]

OK. that's easy. You are pretty much always wrong.

Yes well done Ulysses, that's easy.

Addressing the question though seemed to prove a little too difficult.

[PhilHarries]

Agreed your views on the disloyalty and lack of quality of Thai pols, and it's nice to see you joining in on political discussions again

Thanks, I tend to drift in and out of political discussions as Thai politics, much in common with the world stage, has become too polarised and the people involved in the discussions have lost sight of the fact that it is all opinions nothing more, nothing less. These days everyone seems to enter into a discussion with the view that they are right and anyone who doesn't agree is an idiot and not deserving of the right to voice their side of the story. A discussion become a fight to the death rather than an exchange of views and an appreciation of the other side's viewpoint.

So I tend to lurk and chuck in a few bits here and there when the smoke clears.

The democrats need some time to throw a few crumbs to the Issan farmers. Abhisit could make the farmers forget Thaksin by paying some attention that poorest group of people in Thailand. Unfortunately, I'm not sure the rich elite would allow that. The political plan is to keep the farmers ignorant, poor and manipulated to allow the rich to get even richer.

Problem for Abhisit and the Democrats is that Thaksin's heartland has become a no go area for them. Feelings have been whipped up to such an extent that he'd need to go in there with a battalion of the USMC as back up to keep the lynch mob at bay and even then nobody would be listening. So what he would have to do is act first and hope his message gets through unadulterated by the opposition who'd deny that the actions were the result of the Democrats.

[Ulysses G.]

OK. that's easy. You are pretty much always wrong.

Yes well done Ulysses, that's easy.

Addressing the question though seemed to prove a little too difficult.

Actually, your so-called "question" is too silly to bother with.

Edited April 17, 2009 by Ulysses G.

[tijnebijn]

I feel a BKK vs CM farang tension ...........

[Ricardo]

I feel a BKK vs CM farang tension ...........

Can I have the concession, for ring-side seats, Bring It On !

Interesting that nobody sees the emergence of a successful middle-of-the-road party/coalition ?

[Naam]

if during the campaign the Tories don't try hard then the Christian-Socialists have a good chance to win the elections... i think

[PhilHarries]

I feel a BKK vs CM farang tension ...........

Can I have the concession, for ring-side seats, Bring It On !

Interesting that nobody sees the emergence of a successful middle-of-the-road party/coalition ?

If only it would, my friend, if only it would.

Unfortunately it's been allowed to get to the point of either red or yellow with neither side giving ground. However there are some signs, via posts from forum members, that the reds are losing the support of ordinary people in their territory. Whilst this does not necessarily herald a shift towards the yellows it might just buy a bit of time and allow tempers to cool and objective vision prevail and seek a compromise.

We must live in hope for without hope there is nothing.

[rixalex]

Actually, your so-called "question" is too silly to bother with.

I see.

Funnily enough, Thaksin had a similar way of dealing with questions he didn't approve of. He even fashioned a little lollipop sign with an "x" on it to hold up whenever he was thrown a question too "silly" to bother with.

[Ulysses G.]

I already told you that I have listened to and respect my Thai friends opinions about Thai politics and that I often agree with them. You asked me what I would think if they agreed with you, but they DON"T.

What a STUPID question. Are you seven years old?

Edited April 18, 2009 by Ulysses G.

[phaethon]

[webfact]

Once in power, Democrat Party won't want to lose. They don't want any election. I don't know what people in Parliarment will come up with.

- It just came to my attention that a certain PM of Thailand (member of TRT) mentioned not only once but many times that "he (they) now will be in power for at least 20 years..."

- Few weeks ago the opposition in the parliament had the chance to vote the PM out of office but they didn't succeed. Even a few from the opposition voted FOR the current government (represented by the PM)

I know it is hard to lose, nobody want to lose but IMHO it would be honored by the voter if losers have the guts to admit it!

Of course there will be elections. Nobody knows the day. But it is not a form of true democracy to get an "election day on the agenda" by using force or violence.

This applies to every color who want to run this country! Period

[rixalex]

You asked me what I would think if they agreed with you, but they DON"T.

I know they don't. Wasn't saying that they did. The question was a hypothetical. Even a 7 year old would have grasped that i would have thought.