Gbp Rate On The Rise?

[mja1906]

Does anyone know whats happening to the GBP/baht rate, was very pleased to see 52.3 today.....

any predictions?

will it continue to rise?

[churchill]

It has been between 50 and 52 for some time so PERHAPS it is breaking up to a new level ? 52-54

[pothai]

The U.K. economy is in better shape than the European Union. As with the dollar, the £ will recover...... to approx 63 Baht in the next 5 months as interest rates also rise within the U.K. to counteract inflation. With Spain, Ireland, Greece it will be at the expense of the Euro which can expect to see about September as 37/38 baht. Dollar still strong at 35/36...

[theoldgit]

It's moving in the right direction, albeit very slowly, my Grandmother always used to say to me "don't tempt providence"

[Naam]

The U.K. economy is in better shape than the European Union. As with the dollar, the £ will recover...... to approx 63 Baht in the next 5 months as interest rates also rise within the U.K. to counteract inflation. With Spain, Ireland, Greece it will be at the expense of the Euro which can expect to see about September as 37/38 baht. Dollar still strong at 35/36...

prophets are not an extinct species!

[phaethon]

prophets are not an extinct species!

Not yet... but what about the future..?

[12DrinkMore]

The U.K. economy is in better shape than the European Union. As with the dollar, the £ will recover...... to approx 63 Baht in the next 5 months as interest rates also rise within the U.K. to counteract inflation. With Spain, Ireland, Greece it will be at the expense of the Euro which can expect to see about September as 37/38 baht. Dollar still strong at 35/36...

unfortunately the actual inflation figures have nothing to do with the decisions made by the MPC. Yes, I would LOVE to see interest rates in the UK rise, but there is one main obstacle in the way, Brown.

1. Brown will not allow interest rates to rise until he has inflated a load of debt out of existence.

2. Brown will not allow interest rates to rise until the housing market has stopped falling. All his policies, money creation and zero interest rates have one single aim, to stop the fall in house prices by reducing the interest payments for the debtors and to push enough cash into the economy so that prices rise again.

Over the last two years the CPI has been at least 50% above the target and doesn't reflect the true rate of inflation for most Brits, which is far above that. But on the reasoning that at some point they EXPECT deflation to take hold, the interest rates have been pared to nothing and the MPC have turned to printing money.

I suspect that the reason why the GBP has surged a little this week is because the ECB is meeting on Thursday and there is speculation that the EUR interest rate will be reduced and the ECB might announce that they too are about to run the printing presses. I hope they they do not go down this path.

Edited May 5, 2009 by 12DrinkMore

[khundon]

The U.K. economy is in better shape than the European Union. As with the dollar, the £ will recover...... to approx 63 Baht in the next 5 months as interest rates also rise within the U.K. to counteract inflation. With Spain, Ireland, Greece it will be at the expense of the Euro which can expect to see about September as 37/38 baht. Dollar still strong at 35/36...

Pothai, what planet are you from?

Edited May 5, 2009 by khundon

[Rinrada]

FTSE surges amid wave of optimism....every little bit helps...and all that...

: Tuesday, 05 May 2009, 15:54 GMT

- Search: London Stock Exchange

The FTSE 100 Index has surged more than 2% ahead as investors rode a wave of economic optimism and played catch-up after the bank holiday weekend.

Banking, mining and travel stocks all crowded the leaders' board, ensuring a buoyant start to the week for the London market, which ended at its highest level since January.

The Footsie closed 93.7 points ahead at 4336.9 in the wake of big gains on world markets on Monday.

Markets have seen growing optimism that the worse of the global recession could be over after a spate of better-than-expected economic data.

http://money.aol.co.uk/ftse-surges-amid-wa...124140201033452

[snuggzzz]

There is no longterm stability or growth in the UK economy for the forseeable future. The talk of an 'end to the recession' or, (I like this one), 'the green shoots of recovery' is being very over optomistic. The UK economy may apparently been seen to rise according to the FTSE, but other indicators, like deflation, unemployment, house repossessions, are still negative aspects which need to be taken into account and are growing.

The UK economy is still upredictable, in real terms, it will not be until mid 2010 that the depth and length of the recession will be known; it is not expected to recover for some considerable time.

In relation to the THB, it may have to adjust it's rate in view of the world economies........

[sanmiguel]

Someone was speaking about this on the news and commented that because for some reason American politicians claim theyre pretty much at the bottom of this recession that people are taking their money out of the safe haven that is the dollar and having a bit more of a gamble with it, hence its more to do with the dollar weakening then any decent news about the UK economy.

Britain has only just really found out in the last 6 months or so that the economy has been run by someone who is probably severely mentally ill for the last 13 yrs, the tax hike that is coming is going to make sure any rebound is a slow one.

[churchill]

Seems like Sterling on a rise .

Sterling hits session highs, gilts fall on PMI data

http://uk.reuters.com/article/ukPoundRpt/i...618203120090506

[mommysboy]

Well, if anyone really considers that the pound will not rise against the bt (save for short term corrections) then more fool them!

[JimmyGreaves]

Don't understand. We have the highest rate against the usd and euro for quite some time: 1 GBP = US DOLLAR 1.51304 EURO 1.13625

but the baht remains strong

1.00 GBP= 52.3848 THB

[Oberkommando]

One year's time folks = 80thb to the Pound.

[Naam]

One year's time folks = 80thb to the Pound.

may i assume that the rubber sheet protecting your mattress from the proceeds of your wet dreams is in place?

[mommysboy]

One year's time folks = 80thb to the Pound.

may i assume that the rubber sheet protecting your mattress from the proceeds of your wet dreams is in place?

I have to agree, substance abuse I'd guess!

[Naam]

One year's time folks = 80thb to the Pound.

may i assume that the rubber sheet protecting your mattress from the proceeds of your wet dreams is in place?

I have to agree, substance abuse I'd guess!

but his statement lacked substance (as did most statements of the Oberkommando in the years 1944/1945)

[SantiSuk]

Does anyone know whats happening to the GBP/baht rate, was very pleased to see 52.3 today.....

any predictions?

will it continue to rise?

The baht seems to me to be pretty strongly tied to the US$. When the US$ strengthened against GBP from roughly $2 to the £ last year to $1.40, the baht likewise strengthened from about 67 to 49. The UK was seen as a bust economy overly reliant on a flawed financial services and banking sector. It was not expected to receive international support nor to have a vibrant commercially resilient and entrepreneurial resilience in the same way as the States. The US was expected to pull out of recession much more quickly.

Sentiment towards the UK has improved recently which is why we have seen a modest (very modest!) recovery of GBP. Here is an extract from one UK currency brokers report, on Friday last week, of the US$ against GBP. If my observation that the $ and baht tend to be tied is correct and the brokers view that GBP will continue to bounce back against the $ then we can expect the GBP rate agianst the baht to keep improving.

As always predicting currency movements is very difficult - the extract below gives an indication of the myriad factors involved. If at all possible spread transactions involving currency out over a period of time, rather than trying to guess the timing of a good spot rate. Having said that I am trying to delay the last thai baht payment on my newly built Iassan abode in the hope that the improvement will continue.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Sterling / US Dollar The pound strengthened by over two cents against the US dollar on Friday, finishing the day at $1.5231.

• In early trading on Friday the greenback slipped against the pound ahead of US Non-farm Payrolls data for April. Traders expected the US economy to have shed 590k jobs, less than the 663k in March, and therefore some took on more risky positions.
  
• However, trade was relatively quiet following Thursday’s results of US “stress tests”, which did not yield any negative surprises. Sterling remained above the psychologically key $1.50 level as a result.
  
• The news US employers only shed 539k jobs in April further extended sterling’s gains against the US dollar early Friday afternoon.
  
• However, worse-than-expected Month-on-Month and Year-on-Year Average Hourly Earnings figures released in the US capped demand for sterling to some extent.
  
• Elsewhere, strong gains on the FTSE 100 buoyed investor demand for the pound, primarily because the UK economy is so dependent on the financial services sector. At one point the FTSE 100 was up 1.7%, although it eventually finished the day up 1.44%.
  
• Optimistic mood in the financial markets improved risk sentiment on Friday afternoon, causing investors to buy into the perceived riskier pound, selling the safe-haven US dollar.
  
• In early trading today the pound has pared some of Friday’s gains against the US dollar, as investors continue to digest last week’s market-moving events.
  
• There are no major announcements due in the UK or the US today.
  

House View:* Sterling positive

[chiang mai]

Well, if anyone really considers that the pound will not rise against the bt (save for short term corrections) then more fool them!

Well maybe I'm a fool then because I see GBP strengthening marginally against THB in the short term but my medium and long term view is that GBP will weaken quite substantially and as discussed elsewhere in this forum previously, 35 Baht per GBP during the next five to seven years is entirely probable if not very likely. As for the poster who estimates 80 baht per Pound, do you have any logiv to support this claim and did you get confused when trying to post in the jokes section!

[mommysboy]

Well, if anyone really considers that the pound will not rise against the bt (save for short term corrections) then more fool them!

Well maybe I'm a fool then because I see GBP strengthening marginally against THB in the short term but my medium and long term view is that GBP will weaken quite substantially and as discussed elsewhere in this forum previously, 35 Baht per GBP during the next five to seven years is entirely probable if not very likely. As for the poster who estimates 80 baht per Pound, do you have any logiv to support this claim and did you get confused when trying to post in the jokes section!

No maybe about it. But go on give us your theory.

Wow 35!!!!

Guess you took the blue pills then!!

Maybe the guy who predicted 80 can give you a few of his uppers.

What a nut!

[12DrinkMore]

Currencies are notoriously difficult to predict.

The GBP used to be seen as a solid currency with a high interest rate. Both of these conceptions have been destroyed with the drop in interest rates to zero , the realisation the UK economy is in very bad shape and the commencement of Brown's money printing debacle, every Pound he prints screws all of us who own "real" and hard earned Quids. That <deleted> Brown tried to run around the globe and get all the major countries to debase their currencies simultaneously. Didn't work and the GBP lost 30% of its value, well done Brown.

The Baht, and other Asian currencies, are appreciating slowly but surely against the debtors.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thai-Baht-Ne...sd-t264518.html

Kasikorn Research Centre said in a paper released yesterday that the baht's appreciation was inevitable, as the selling spree in US dollars would continue and Thailand is predicted to record a US$8 billion (Bt276 billion) trade surplus this year, compared with a mere $200 million last year.

I have difficulty in believing that incredible performance. But if it is anywhere near the truth, then the Baht will surely remain solid?

But anyway, specifically to the GBP, the only way the GBP is going to appreciate is if the interest rates increase (and this could cause a rapid appreciation of the GBP) or the economic situation improves immensely, something which I doubt will occur in the next three years.

Unfortunately for the GBP I can see Brown persisting with his "quantitative easing", this month another massive 50,000,000,000 GBPs, in a stupid attempt to create another house price and stock market bubble. He might succeed with the stock market bubble for a bit, his mates in the City will see to that, but house prices? No way. The UK population is now "hunkering down" and waiting for the prices to reach affordable levels again.

And to be honest, I don't really see where the current policies of Brown will enable an economic recovery. Britain needs to make stuff that people want to buy. And this is not escalating existing housing stock prices or through the liability called the "finance industry". Tourism might help, but in the end, to pay the debts and the taxes saleable stuff has to be manufactured.

Where is the manufacturing industry in the UK?????

[MJP]

Currencies are notoriously difficult to predict.

The GBP used to be seen as a solid currency with a high interest rate. Both of these conceptions have been destroyed with the drop in interest rates to zero , the realisation the UK economy is in very bad shape and the commencement of Brown's money printing debacle, every Pound he prints screws all of us who own "real" and hard earned Quids. That <deleted> Brown tried to run around the globe and get all the major countries to debase their currencies simultaneously. Didn't work and the GBP lost 30% of its value, well done Brown.

The Baht, and other Asian currencies, are appreciating slowly but surely against the debtors.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thai-Baht-Ne...sd-t264518.html

Kasikorn Research Centre said in a paper released yesterday that the baht's appreciation was inevitable, as the selling spree in US dollars would continue and Thailand is predicted to record a US$8 billion (Bt276 billion) trade surplus this year, compared with a mere $200 million last year.

I have difficulty in believing that incredible performance. But if it is anywhere near the truth, then the Baht will surely remain solid?

But anyway, specifically to the GBP, the only way the GBP is going to appreciate is if the interest rates increase (and this could cause a rapid appreciation of the GBP) or the economic situation improves immensely, something which I doubt will occur in the next three years.

Unfortunately for the GBP I can see Brown persisting with his "quantitative easing", this month another massive 50,000,000,000 GBPs, in a stupid attempt to create another house price and stock market bubble. He might succeed with the stock market bubble for a bit, his mates in the City will see to that, but house prices? No way. The UK population is now "hunkering down" and waiting for the prices to reach affordable levels again.

And to be honest, I don't really see where the current policies of Brown will enable an economic recovery. Britain needs to make stuff that people want to buy. And this is not escalating existing housing stock prices or through the liability called the "finance industry". Tourism might help, but in the end, to pay the debts and the taxes saleable stuff has to be manufactured.

Where is the manufacturing industry in the UK?????

Trouble is IR's will rise in the UK, because of an impending bonds/gilts strike. The international money markets will ultimately reprice UK debt risk. This is unlikely to have the effect of pushing Sterling higher, I suspect it may go the other way. It is at this point the UK, just like under Callaghan, goes begging to the IMF. Not good.

Quite a few economic commentators are now actively talking about the collapse of the US Dollar, the Euro and Sterling, primarily against the Asians. Not good for anyone. Oil price likely to go flying up (already above $60/bbl), Asia can't export anything, West can't buy anything.

Add to this the carnage left in the wake of the MP's expenses chaos. This, from the accounts I'm getting from the UK has the potential to destabilise not just the Labour government but the whole of Parliament. Public confidence in any of the parties and the whole system of government in the UK appears to be on the brink of collapse. Brown has the lowest opinion poll ratings since they began in 1946 (I think that's the correct year). Less than Michael Foot in 1983!

I'd say it's all good fun. But it isn't.

[chiang mai]

Well, if anyone really considers that the pound will not rise against the bt (save for short term corrections) then more fool them!

Well maybe I'm a fool then because I see GBP strengthening marginally against THB in the short term but my medium and long term view is that GBP will weaken quite substantially and as discussed elsewhere in this forum previously, 35 Baht per GBP during the next five to seven years is entirely probable if not very likely. As for the poster who estimates 80 baht per Pound, do you have any logiv to support this claim and did you get confused when trying to post in the jokes section!

No maybe about it. But go on give us your theory.

Wow 35!!!!

Guess you took the blue pills then!!

Maybe the guy who predicted 80 can give you a few of his uppers.

What a nut!

When Western economies recover then so too will Asian economies but Asian economies will not have the overhang of Quantitative Easing, thus true growth and progress will be more easily achieved.

The Thai economy is export led but less than 50% of that market is in the West, the remainder is regional - dependence on Western markets is not as huge and all inclusive as people may think. In going forward though, Thai exports will recover more fully as the economies in the West recover.

Tourism represents around 7% of GDP and is not a serious factor in the recovery process since shortfalls in the numbers from Western tourists will likely be replaced by those from other countries.

The longer term historic norm in the GBP/THB exchange rate is around 35 and this only changed as a result of the Asian crisis in 1997 - During the following twelve years Thailand borrowed and repaid its loans to the IMF and now has substantial foreign reserves, in excess of 110 bill. In the years since '97 Thailand has done much to put its financial house in order and its financial system, under the auspices of the BOT, is well regarded. One of the benefits of that progress is that Thai financial institutions were hardly suffered any Sub Prime losses directly.

In recent years GBP/THB hovered around 70 and expats and frequent tourists became accustomed to this level because it made living in Thailand cost effective for holders of GBP. It's easy to forget however that 35 Baht per Pound is not the anomaly, 70 Baht is however.

Thailand is unlikely to suffer the same problems of social unrest resulting from the economic downturn as the West - the population is not so heavily dependent on social financial support as say the UK or Europe. The return to work factor is therefore likely to be shorter and stronger in Asia than in the West and without the associated overhead.

Finally, BOT has moved away from linking THB solely to USD and now manages its currency against a basket of regional currencies, BOT has also moved away from keeping its reserves solely in USD - currency dependency on USD is therefore not such a huge factor today as previously albeit all export bills are still settled by the Bank in USD.

Edited May 13, 2009 by chiang mai

[apetley]

The pound is now certain to rise as I have just transferred a sizeable sum into Thailand after putting it off as long as possible.

As my dad says, 'it's only money'.

Edited May 13, 2009 by apetley

[cmsally]

The pound at the moment seems to be following stocks, it goes up when they do.

The guy with the bow tie (I think his name is Jim Rogers) predicts a US$ crisis this or next year, but doesn't point to GBP as an alternative, prefers the Euro.

There is also a long interview with Marc Faber but I didn't hear much on currencies. You can find it on youtube in 2 parts speaking from Vancouver. But so far I only listened to one part.

So I suppose the only consensus is that the US$ is too high but whether that means the GBP will rise I don't know. I think it could go up to 55 in the short term from drop in the US$ but after that is anyones guess. At a guess stockmarket dodgy for 2-3 yrs and GBP probably the same.

[mommysboy]

Well, if anyone really considers that the pound will not rise against the bt (save for short term corrections) then more fool them!

Well maybe I'm a fool then because I see GBP strengthening marginally against THB in the short term but my medium and long term view is that GBP will weaken quite substantially and as discussed elsewhere in this forum previously, 35 Baht per GBP during the next five to seven years is entirely probable if not very likely. As for the poster who estimates 80 baht per Pound, do you have any logiv to support this claim and did you get confused when trying to post in the jokes section!

No maybe about it. But go on give us your theory.

Wow 35!!!!

Guess you took the blue pills then!!

Maybe the guy who predicted 80 can give you a few of his uppers.

What a nut!

When Western economies recover then so too will Asian economies but Asian economies will not have the overhang of Quantitative Easing, thus true growth and progress will be more easily achieved.

The Thai economy is export led but less than 50% of that market is in the West, the remainder is regional - dependence on Western markets is not as huge and all inclusive as people may think. In going forward though, Thai exports will recover more fully as the economies in the West recover.

Tourism represents around 7% of GDP and is not a serious factor in the recovery process since shortfalls in the numbers from Western tourists will likely be replaced by those from other countries.

The longer term historic norm in the GBP/THB exchange rate is around 35 and this only changed as a result of the Asian crisis in 1997 - During the following twelve years Thailand borrowed and repaid its loans to the IMF and now has substantial foreign reserves, in excess of 110 bill. In the years since '97 Thailand has done much to put its financial house in order and its financial system, under the auspices of the BOT, is well regarded. One of the benefits of that progress is that Thai financial institutions were hardly suffered any Sub Prime losses directly.

In recent years GBP/THB hovered around 70 and expats and frequent tourists became accustomed to this level because it made living in Thailand cost effective for holders of GBP. It's easy to forget however that 35 Baht per Pound is not the anomaly, 70 Baht is however.

Thailand is unlikely to suffer the same problems of social unrest resulting from the economic downturn as the West - the population is not so heavily dependent on social financial support as say the UK or Europe. The return to work factor is therefore likely to be shorter and stronger in Asia than in the West and without the associated overhead.

Finally, BOT has moved away from linking THB solely to USD and now manages its currency against a basket of regional currencies, BOT has also moved away from keeping its reserves solely in USD - currency dependency on USD is therefore not such a huge factor today as previously albeit all export bills are still settled by the Bank in USD.

Brave New World then!. I'd certainly agree 70 was never a norm. Must admit I can't comment on the figures yet, but less social unrest, are you kidding? where have you been?

I rather think the effects of quantitiative easing have been and gone as a major impact. You make it sound as if Thailand has no economic woes???? We're just seeing time lag that's all. In a year's time foreign reserves may have dwindled to zero, and Gov't borrowing soared. Yes it's so fiscally sound that leading brokers downgraded it's credit rating!

What we've seen is the pound at it's lowest ebb, as investment picks up, so will the demand for sterling, we are seeing it now, it's about in line with the bt.

What about inflation though? I'd imagine Thailand outstripped the west on this over say the last 20 years! wouldn't this erode value and move the average to 40-45 as a minimum?

Love the way you dismiss 7% (min) GDP as seemingly inconsequential- do you realise that multiple millions are employed by tourism and it's spin offs and Thailand has seen a 50% reduction in numbers.? Aren't you aware of the multiplier effect?

Not linked to the dollar??

Yes Thailand is very export driven, as are many of it's trading partners, don't just assume demand will suddenly just appear from elsewhere. Asia as a whole is very heavily dependent on the west.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

It is unfortunate that gambling is not allowed in Thailand as a bookmaker could do really well on currencies.

I'm happy I bought when I did and did not listen to the don't buy rent group. It would be costing me 25% more just on exchange rate if I was renting and moving my money in every month.

[neil324]

Well, if anyone really considers that the pound will not rise against the bt (save for short term corrections) then more fool them!

Well maybe I'm a fool then because I see GBP strengthening marginally against THB in the short term but my medium and long term view is that GBP will weaken quite substantially and as discussed elsewhere in this forum previously, 35 Baht per GBP during the next five to seven years is entirely probable if not very likely. As for the poster who estimates 80 baht per Pound, do you have any logiv to support this claim and did you get confused when trying to post in the jokes section!

No maybe about it. But go on give us your theory.

Wow 35!!!!

Guess you took the blue pills then!!

Maybe the guy who predicted 80 can give you a few of his uppers.

What a nut!

When Western economies recover then so too will Asian economies but Asian economies will not have the overhang of Quantitative Easing, thus true growth and progress will be more easily achieved.

The Thai economy is export led but less than 50% of that market is in the West, the remainder is regional - dependence on Western markets is not as huge and all inclusive as people may think. In going forward though, Thai exports will recover more fully as the economies in the West recover.

Tourism represents around 7% of GDP and is not a serious factor in the recovery process since shortfalls in the numbers from Western tourists will likely be replaced by those from other countries.

The longer term historic norm in the GBP/THB exchange rate is around 35 and this only changed as a result of the Asian crisis in 1997 - During the following twelve years Thailand borrowed and repaid its loans to the IMF and now has substantial foreign reserves, in excess of 110 bill. In the years since '97 Thailand has done much to put its financial house in order and its financial system, under the auspices of the BOT, is well regarded. One of the benefits of that progress is that Thai financial institutions were hardly suffered any Sub Prime losses directly.

In recent years GBP/THB hovered around 70 and expats and frequent tourists became accustomed to this level because it made living in Thailand cost effective for holders of GBP. It's easy to forget however that 35 Baht per Pound is not the anomaly, 70 Baht is however.

Thailand is unlikely to suffer the same problems of social unrest resulting from the economic downturn as the West - the population is not so heavily dependent on social financial support as say the UK or Europe. The return to work factor is therefore likely to be shorter and stronger in Asia than in the West and without the associated overhead.

Finally, BOT has moved away from linking THB solely to USD and now manages its currency against a basket of regional currencies, BOT has also moved away from keeping its reserves solely in USD - currency dependency on USD is therefore not such a huge factor today as previously albeit all export bills are still settled by the Bank in USD.

When the west starts buying again Thailand with a strong currency will not do so well. Stunting any growth.

Remember since 1997 and all Thailand has achieved was done so on the back of a so called weak currency under a worldwide boom. Now all of a sudden its ok to have a strong currency.

[ChiangMaiFun]

Slightly frustrating that the GBP/USD has improved to 1.53 but not corresponding movement in GBP/THB as everyone keeps saying they are linked - should be GBP/THB 54/55 today