Abhisit May Not Last Beyond August

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ANALYSIS

Abhisit may not last beyond August

By THANONG KHANTHONG

THE NATION

Published on May 6, 2009

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva might not last beyond August or October this year as political pressure surrounding his government has intensified.

Abhisit has to finish his important job of hosting the Asean Summit first. He suffered a big loss of face in Pattaya, being forced to postpone the summit due to the red shirt riot. The summit has been rescheduled to Phuket next month. Abhisit would also like to pass the 2009-2010 budget in June before going to the polls again.

For me, Abhisit is a prime minister of the future rather than the present. He has come to office too early, in the midst of a crisis in which power play is the name of the game. Abhisit has not been groomed for such crude power play. He has been a nice man who plays strictly by democratic principles. In fact, he is a novice among the tigers.

He has Thaksin Shinawatra attacking him from the outside, Newin Chidchob and coalition partners backstabbing him from "inside", the military and police at his neck, and red shirt protesters hungry for his blood.

Abhisit could not have believed his political enemies would like to take his life. On April 12, he could have died at the hands of the red mob out to instigate violence and set a perfect plot to stage a coup.

And there is the sharp drop in the Thai economy, which could contract by 5-6 per cent. Unemployment is soaring.

If Abhisit can't move forward, he may need to dissolve Parliament and hope for a stronger mandate to return.

We are beginning to see the shape of the Blue camp, which will contend for the premiership. Behind Newin's Bhum Jai Thai Party are Gen Prawit Wongsuwan, the defence minister, and Gen Anupong Paochinda, the Army chief.

Gen Prawit will serve as prime minister if the Bhum Jai Thai can muster a sizeable block of MPs and strengthen its allies with other blocs such as Somsak Thepsuthin. Newin is hoping to sweep Isaan as the red shirt camp of Pheu Thai has witnessed a sharp erosion of its credibility from the recent political turmoil. About 30 MPs in Pheu Thai are already in his pocket. Other backers include Suriya Jungrungreangkit and King Power.

Thaksin has been doing everything he can to oust the Democrat government and bring about a new election to get a chance to return home and to reclaim his Bt76 billion currently "frozen" in Thai banks.

If we were to have an election now, Bhum Jai Thai stands a good chance of becoming a core government party since it can join a coalition with either the Democrats or Pheu Thai.

You can see that we have a deadlock in democracy now, as rival parties can't afford to let opponents hold power for too long. So, a spectre of violence looms large on the horizon.

Sondhi Limthongkul cannot remain on the defensive. The military wanted him dead. But miraculously he has survived the assassination attempt. He has spoken out on TV and hinted at the identities of those who masterminded the plot.

So far the People's Alliance of Democracy under his and Chamlong Srimuang's leadership has exercised restraint.

The yellow shirts resisted temptation to return to the streets during the turmoil. If they were to do so, they would be could well spur civil strife.

After telling all about the move to kill him, Sondhi plans to head abroad for a rest. A couple of things are in his mind. First, he would like Pol Gen Thanee Sonboomsap to proceed with his investigation into the assassination plot. Thanee is likely to be able to arrest the suspected gunmen this month. His team has already identified several of the gunmen, who serve in the military.

Second, he wants to hand leadership of the PAD to the second generation. Suriyasai Katasila and Somkiat Pongpaiboon will be new leaders of the PAD, which has come to terms with itself. Street protests are not the answer for Thai politics. The PAD is now resolved to set up a political party, named Thien Haeng Dharma (Candle of Dharma), to contest the next election.

The PAD's street protests over the past three years have generated a new dimension in Thai politics. Via ASTV, the PAD now has a large base of popular support nationwide, particularly among the more educated Thais, traders and entrepreneurs. This may overlap with Democrat Party.

Third, Sondhi would like to see how Abhisit deals with top security officials. After the Asean Summit debacle, bids to kill both Abhisit and Sondhi, the Songkran turmoil, nobody from the police or military has stepped up assume responsibility for failing to do their job.

In fact, by officials found to have failed to undertake their responsibility during the crisis must be charged or sacked.

We will have to see whether Abhisit has the guts to take on the top security personnel and replace them before he goes into the next general election. If he fails to do so, the Democrat will surely be dead meat.

-- The Nation 2009/05/05

Edited May 6, 2009 by sbk

[WinnieTheKhwai]

the nation

[BigSnake]

the nation

DITTO

[sbk]

suggestion? If that is all you have to offer by way of comment, why not refrain from commenting? It not only adds nothing to a discussion but is skating very close to trolling. Something, I for one, find most annoying. Cheers.

[Jai Dee]

This editorial opinion has already been posted in the News Clippings Forum here.

/Closed.