Is There A Light At The End Of The Global Financial Crisis Tunnel?

[MJP]

There are spurts of baseless confidence which cause little rallies. Afraid the long term from here (next decade at least) is down.

But in the end it was an " engineered rally " maybe just to get the " suckers " to carry these liabilities instead of the taxpayers ......

se

Total Meltdown And Civil Unrest – Wall Street's Manipulated Stock Market Rally

http://eldib.wordpress.com/2009/03/27/tota...k-market-rally/

Yes, very possibly.

Back to the land, glad we got a bit.

[flying]

the green shoots

They would be lucky to have those Folks keep talking & saying this & that but the reality here is folks are losing jobs so fast its not even funny.

I would guess Unemployment may have a problem sooner than Social Security

Yes the news reports all kinds of promise.....In the way of this month is less bad than last month.

Well I can take that a number of ways. If the water tanks were full last month & leaking badly...Yes I would guess that this month they leaked less since they have lost most if not all of their head pressure/water

Other than that show me real signs of recovery.......Because I swear I see none what so ever. Top that off with Me O blowing big in the white house & we are in a state of wonder here.

Some day Im sure it will come clean as to what the truth was behind this whole crisis but one thing is for sure & that is that it is not what we have been told........at all. For all the Trillions cast to the wind we see nothing. It may have been a joke that someone posted about a cure for the UK & giving retirees a million pounds with some conditions on how to spend it. But really that plan at least had a result assured

Edited May 15, 2009 by flying

[flying]

"The Worst Is Yet to Come": If You're Not Petrified, You're Not Paying Attention

Posted May 15, 2009 09:31am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking, Autos, Housing

The green shoots story took a bit of hit this week between data on April retail sales, weekly jobless claims and foreclosures. But the whole concept of the economy finding its footing was "preposterous" to begin with, says Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates.

"We're in a complete mess and the consumer is smart enough to know it," says Davidowitz, whose firm does consulting for the retail industry. "If the consumer isn't petrified, he or she is a dam_n fool."

Davidowitz, who is nothing if not opinionated (and colorful), paints a very grim picture: "The worst is yet to come with consumers and banks," he says. "This country is going into a 10-year decline. Living standards will never be the same."

This outlook is based on the following main points:

* With the unemployment rate rising into double digits - and that's not counting the millions of "underemployed" Americans - consumers are hitting the breaks, which is having a huge impact, given consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity.

* Rising unemployment and the $8 trillion negative wealth effect of housing mean more Americans will default on not just mortgages but student loans and auto loans and credit card debt.

* More consumer loan defaults will hit banks, which are also threatened by what Davidowitz calls a "depression" in commercial real estate, noting the recent bankruptcy of General Growth Properties and distressed sales by Developers Diversified and other REITs.

As for all the hullabaloo about the stress tests, he says they were a sham and part of a "con game to get private money to finance these institutions because [Treasury] can't get more money from Congress. It's the ‘greater fool' theory."

"We're now in Barack Obama's world where money goes into the most inefficient parts of the economy and we're bailing everyone out," says Daviowitz, who opposes bailouts for financials and automakers alike. "The bailout money is in the sewer and gone."

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...ying-Attention

[Jungian]

I was watching the Daily Show with Jon Stewart last night and an interesting thing I didn't know was all of the land being used to drill oil including areas of the ocean and areas for coal mining belong to (according to the US government) the "American People"! The oil companies are just leasing the land and they are to pay a fair market value on the lease however the USA is suppose to get royalties for all of the natural resources taken. The interesting thing is that these companies have been paying their leases but they have not been paying out on the profit (as the people that have been running the country for far to long) have been oil men or had investments in oil and natural resources. Now Obama has set up a natural resource police/comity to get our pay day. This could be the saving grace to bankrupt these greedy jerks that earned the biggest profits in the history of human kind when they jacked up the cost of fuel when in fact there was no shortage or problem other than greed. I bet this could be worth the 2 Trillion we owe China???

[MJP]

"The Worst Is Yet to Come": If You're Not Petrified, You're Not Paying Attention

Posted May 15, 2009 09:31am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking, Autos, Housing

The green shoots story took a bit of hit this week between data on April retail sales, weekly jobless claims and foreclosures. But the whole concept of the economy finding its footing was "preposterous" to begin with, says Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates.

"We're in a complete mess and the consumer is smart enough to know it," says Davidowitz, whose firm does consulting for the retail industry. "If the consumer isn't petrified, he or she is a dam_n fool."

Davidowitz, who is nothing if not opinionated (and colorful), paints a very grim picture: "The worst is yet to come with consumers and banks," he says. "This country is going into a 10-year decline. Living standards will never be the same."

This outlook is based on the following main points:

* With the unemployment rate rising into double digits - and that's not counting the millions of "underemployed" Americans - consumers are hitting the breaks, which is having a huge impact, given consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity.

* Rising unemployment and the $8 trillion negative wealth effect of housing mean more Americans will default on not just mortgages but student loans and auto loans and credit card debt.

* More consumer loan defaults will hit banks, which are also threatened by what Davidowitz calls a "depression" in commercial real estate, noting the recent bankruptcy of General Growth Properties and distressed sales by Developers Diversified and other REITs.

As for all the hullabaloo about the stress tests, he says they were a sham and part of a "con game to get private money to finance these institutions because [Treasury] can't get more money from Congress. It's the 'greater fool' theory."

"We're now in Barack Obama's world where money goes into the most inefficient parts of the economy and we're bailing everyone out," says Daviowitz, who opposes bailouts for financials and automakers alike. "The bailout money is in the sewer and gone."

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...ying-Attention

Yep, saw that one earlier. Cracker innit?!

This has ten years to run.

All those with expensive condos and window boxes, I feel for you.

All those with farms , get planting baby!

[midas]

Yep, saw that one earlier. Cracker innit?!

This has ten years to run.

And during that ten years what happens to the younger generation in USA and UK.

While Chinas young are rapidly improving themselves with computer-assisted education,

education standards in America and UK continue to fall behind. And what about all the graduates

that can no longer find work? So after 10 years will these young people be ready to compete ?

But i agree about land and farming !

[MJP]

Yep, saw that one earlier. Cracker innit?!

This has ten years to run.

And during that ten years what happens to the younger generation in USA and UK.

While Chinas young are rapidly improving themselves with computer-assisted education,

education standards in America and UK continue to fall behind. And what about all the graduates

that can no longer find work? So after 10 years will these young people be ready to compete ?

But i agree about land and farming !

TBH, Midas I no longer care. I've employed many Masters Degree kids in the UK, they are uneducated piles of useless whining blubber. Turn them into oil!

Good for Mr. Yuan and Mr. Patel. They have something to strive for.

No, Midas. In the UK, after ten years, they will all be CHAVS!

[MJP]

I was watching the Daily Show with Jon Stewart last night and an interesting thing I didn't know was all of the land being used to drill oil including areas of the ocean and areas for coal mining belong to (according to the US government) the "American People"! The oil companies are just leasing the land and they are to pay a fair market value on the lease however the USA is suppose to get royalties for all of the natural resources taken. The interesting thing is that these companies have been paying their leases but they have not been paying out on the profit (as the people that have been running the country for far to long) have been oil men or had investments in oil and natural resources. Now Obama has set up a natural resource police/comity to get our pay day. This could be the saving grace to bankrupt these greedy jerks that earned the biggest profits in the history of human kind when they jacked up the cost of fuel when in fact there was no shortage or problem other than greed. I bet this could be worth the 2 Trillion we owe China???

But Mr. Obama, in Paragraph 4, sub-section 3 the contract states . . . .

Trillion? Did you say Trillion? We don't have it.

Okay no problem. Will you make a donation to my next campaign?

Come on, Jungian. Play the game!

[Jungian]

I did play the game AIG made off with my money until Obama made them give it back (thank you Mr. President) now I have pulled all of my money from the US banks and put a good deal of it in my account in China which I have had for more than 20 year. I don't know how much is fact and how much is fiction and I am hardly the guy you would want to ask for financial advice, I'm just telling you what I heard on the show and yes it could be trillions that has been stolen by big business over the years heck look what the idiots did when they got a bail out, gave themselves big bonuses for running their respective companies into the ground right in front of our faces no less, so could they be holding out on what they owe? Yes, I'm sure of it and that I would put money on.

[midas]

it seems the first about who gets the bail out money is that there are no rules !!

Anyone can apply !

Trucking firm to ask for $1 billion in bailout cash

NEW YORK --- The nation's largest publicly traded trucking company will ask for $1 billion in aid from the federal bailout fund, as creditors come knocking and business continues to sink, media reports said Friday.

If approved, YRC would become the first trucking company to get help from the bailout fund, officially known as the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. But analysts say the chance of YRC getting any bailout money is slim.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/b...out-money_N.htm

[AlexLah]

Yep, saw that one earlier. Cracker innit?!

This has ten years to run.

And during that ten years what happens to the younger generation in USA and UK.

While Chinas young are rapidly improving themselves with computer-assisted education,

education standards in America and UK continue to fall behind. And what about all the graduates

that can no longer find work? So after 10 years will these young people be ready to compete ?

But i agree about land and farming !

The "kids" know what to do......or at least they are being told.

[flying]

The "kids" know what to do......or at least they are being told.

College grad: ‘I wish I’d gone to prison instead’

Posted: Tuesday, May 12 2009 at 05:00 am CT by Bob Sullivan

Hernan Castillo is treading water, trying to survive under the weight of $5,200 in credit card debt and $30,000 in student loans. He’s making payments on time, but the Orange County, Calif., resident sees little hope for getting out of the warehouse job he holds and landing a job as an accountant, the field in which he earned his degree. And forget about saving money for a home or retirement. He now firmly believes the money he spent earning a college degree was a waste.

http://redtape.msnbc.com/2009/05/college-d...tead.html#posts

[cloudhopper]

The "kids" know what to do......or at least they are being told.

College grad: ‘I wish I’d gone to prison instead’

Posted: Tuesday, May 12 2009 at 05:00 am CT by Bob Sullivan

Hernan Castillo is treading water, trying to survive under the weight of $5,200 in credit card debt and $30,000 in student loans. He’s making payments on time, but the Orange County, Calif., resident sees little hope for getting out of the warehouse job he holds and landing a job as an accountant, the field in which he earned his degree. And forget about saving money for a home or retirement. He now firmly believes the money he spent earning a college degree was a waste.

http://redtape.msnbc.com/2009/05/college-d...tead.html#posts

It's going to be like grads here in LOS but with much more debt - zillions of grads with no meaningful job opportunities. Higher education has turned into an overpriced scam IMO. I just got an e-mail from the president of the University of California (who probably pulls down half a million a year) urging me to support the CA tax initiatives and make an alumni donation - I told him to f-off and resign if he wanted to help.

[flying]

It's going to be like grads here in LOS but with much more debt - zillions of grads with no meaningful job opportunities. Higher education has turned into an overpriced scam IMO. I just got an e-mail from the president of the University of California (who probably pulls down half a million a year) urging me to support the CA tax initiatives and make an alumni donation - I told him to f-off and resign if he wanted to help.

That is correct & then they will probably need to default on all those student loans.

I agree on higher education price wise being a total rip these days.

Funny what you told the prez too

[midas]

The "kids" know what to do......or at least they are being told.

College grad: ‘I wish I’d gone to prison instead’

Posted: Tuesday, May 12 2009 at 05:00 am CT by Bob Sullivan

Hernan Castillo is treading water, trying to survive under the weight of $5,200 in credit card debt and $30,000 in student loans. He’s making payments on time, but the Orange County, Calif., resident sees little hope for getting out of the warehouse job he holds and landing a job as an accountant, the field in which he earned his degree. And forget about saving money for a home or retirement. He now firmly believes the money he spent earning a college degree was a waste.

http://redtape.msnbc.com/2009/05/college-d...tead.html#posts

It's going to be like grads here in LOS but with much more debt - zillions of grads with no meaningful job opportunities. Higher education has turned into an overpriced scam IMO. I just got an e-mail from the president of the University of California (who probably pulls down half a million a year) urging me to support the CA tax initiatives and make an alumni donation - I told him to f-off and resign if he wanted to help.

So it's a hard to get too enthusiastic about the future housing market because whether a mortgage

is based on 7x or 5x income is a bit academic in the case of people like Hernan Castillo?

[AlexLah]

Common.....there is very affordable "Housing" available.

They are going to be more expensive in a while so buy one while you still can...

[hhgz]

"I bet this could be worth the 2 Trillion we owe China???"

Huh? China has 2T of trade surplus, abut 800B is from the US.

[lannarebirth]

It's going to be like grads here in LOS but with much more debt - zillions of grads with no meaningful job opportunities. Higher education has turned into an overpriced scam IMO. I just got an e-mail from the president of the University of California (who probably pulls down half a million a year) urging me to support the CA tax initiatives and make an alumni donation - I told him to f-off and resign if he wanted to help.

Not in every case do I agree, but for the most part I agree whole heartedly. An MBA from Northwestern or UCLA used to have some cache. Now you can get it through the backdoor from some third world college with a couple of short visits to the actual campus. maybe it was always about the fees, I don't know. It certainly is now, and no one hides that fact very well either.

[OriginalPoster]

It's going to be like grads here in LOS but with much more debt - zillions of grads with no meaningful job opportunities. Higher education has turned into an overpriced scam IMO. I just got an e-mail from the president of the University of California (who probably pulls down half a million a year) urging me to support the CA tax initiatives and make an alumni donation - I told him to f-off and resign if he wanted to help.

Not in every case do I agree, but for the most part I agree whole heartedly. An MBA from Northwestern or UCLA used to have some cache. Now you can get it through the backdoor from some third world college with a couple of short visits to the actual campus. maybe it was always about the fees, I don't know. It certainly is now, and no one hides that fact very well either.

Don't know about that. While there certainly are high school drop outs and earn millions and college grads who wait tables, on average people with more education earn more. Of course not all fields of study are equally lucrative and not all college degrees from all colleges are equal to each other, but generally it pays better to be educated than to be ignorant.

Edited May 16, 2009 by OriginalPoster

[MJP]

The "kids" know what to do......or at least they are being told.

College grad: 'I wish I'd gone to prison instead'

Posted: Tuesday, May 12 2009 at 05:00 am CT by Bob Sullivan

Hernan Castillo is treading water, trying to survive under the weight of $5,200 in credit card debt and $30,000 in student loans. He's making payments on time, but the Orange County, Calif., resident sees little hope for getting out of the warehouse job he holds and landing a job as an accountant, the field in which he earned his degree. And forget about saving money for a home or retirement. He now firmly believes the money he spent earning a college degree was a waste.

http://redtape.msnbc.com/2009/05/college-d...tead.html#posts

It's going to be like grads here in LOS but with much more debt - zillions of grads with no meaningful job opportunities. Higher education has turned into an overpriced scam IMO. I just got an e-mail from the president of the University of California (who probably pulls down half a million a year) urging me to support the CA tax initiatives and make an alumni donation - I told him to f-off and resign if he wanted to help.

So it's a hard to get too enthusiastic about the future housing market because whether a mortgage

is based on 7x or 5x income is a bit academic in the case of people like Hernan Castillo?

It was another bubble, supported by the credit bubble, it was the 'education bubble'.

These kids got suckered in believing that anything less than 'middle class' wouldn't satisfy them or parents. It was all a load of bu!!sh!t.

It was about getting them into debt and keeping them in debt.

Most degrees in the US and the UK should come with a financial health warning.

[lannarebirth]

It's going to be like grads here in LOS but with much more debt - zillions of grads with no meaningful job opportunities. Higher education has turned into an overpriced scam IMO. I just got an e-mail from the president of the University of California (who probably pulls down half a million a year) urging me to support the CA tax initiatives and make an alumni donation - I told him to f-off and resign if he wanted to help.

Not in every case do I agree, but for the most part I agree whole heartedly. An MBA from Northwestern or UCLA used to have some cache. Now you can get it through the backdoor from some third world college with a couple of short visits to the actual campus. maybe it was always about the fees, I don't know. It certainly is now, and no one hides that fact very well either.

Don't know about that. While there certainly are high school drop outs and earn millions and college grads who wait tables, on average people with more education earn more. Of course not all fields of study are equally lucrative and not all college degrees from all colleges are equal to each other, but generally it pays better to be educated than to be ignorant.

I don't dispute that. What i'm saying is that the degree itself is watered down as practically anyone with the funds can get it. We've become certificate oriented ather than knowledge oriented.

In my career I would have one major accreditation that encompassed the whole of the job I might be asked to do. By the time I retired I had maybe 15, which were all "sub" certifications. All designed to cover the ass and limit liability to my employers. The3y didn't care that I knew my job. They cared if I had a certificate that could indemnify them. Schools of "higher education" have really pushed this way of thinking and broad knowledge of the graduate has been the first casualty. Big bucks in it too.

[Abrak]

I am posting this chart below because I said I had a clear chart showing what he was looking for - namely that there were 4 to 5 bear rallies in the great depression that were over 25% and subsequently ended in lower lows. I thought I had a chart showing this on my PC but I cant find it so this will have to do.

I agree that the statement about bear market rallies isnt really obvious from the chart itself but if you wish to check the stat you can go here....

http://skepticalspeculator.blogspot.com/20...et-rallies.html

....which shows the data a little more clearly.

BTW this all came up following some comment that the market had gone up x% so that the bear market was clearly over and that we would be mad if we didnt go out and fill our boots.

[MJP]

This one's interesting.

Young lass returns from Wall Street bank to Ghana.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8052518.stm

[flying]

Here is a good one

[MJP]

Here is a good one

That's not a chart. That's a section view of a mountain range that's fallen off it's own cliff.

[Abrak]

Here is a good one

That's not a chart. That's a section view of a mountain range that's fallen off it's own cliff.

To the extent this is a chart - and I do like ones which go back 50 years ago - I could also show you a chart that shows the drop in earnings in any recession going going back back to the 1880s. It shows that the drop in current in current earnings is fairly spectacular plus that the bigger the drop the longer they return to record earnings.

The problem with the graph is that it is pre-war and post war so that the statistics are bias by say 3% inflation pre-war and 7% inflation post war (on average). So clearly with higher inflation in a post war period earnings recovered quicker than in a post-war period. I also suspect there is an inherent bias in the current period by the large degree of financial earnings which are always debatable.

Personally I have a view that US GDP numbers were artificially inflated by non-sustainable levels of increase in debt which had a marginal propensity in the dollar increase in debt to GDP of 15 cents, this is not an unreasonable economic argument and that it was unsustainable and it is not unreasonable.

To which anyone has a view that we will see a V recovery in US GDP numbers similar to those in the past, I am perfectly open to this if it can be justified, but CBO and Fed forecasts are poorly argued while say IMF arguments to the contrary would seem to have far more economic credibility.

[flying]

Here is a good one

That's not a chart. That's a section view of a mountain range that's fallen off it's own cliff.

Truth be known we are living through a time that I think will be used as an example many decades from now.

[Abrak]

BTW I am very interested in the concept of biflation.

I hold a number of assets - such as gold - that I am not entirely happy with (especially given some luntatic reasons for holding it on Thaivisa). Biflation makes a lot of sense to me but I am reluctant to invest in it given the poor performances of basic commodities during the last depression.

The fact that basic commodities have done well over the last 3 months doesnt in anyway seem to represent an investment arguement (other than that I missed an opportunity) which I am sure 100s of TVers will tell me that they bought x here and it is now here.

Someone mentioned that biflation was happening in Iceland but with no details and noone has satisfactorily explained why it didnt happen (in terms of relative pricing) in the depression. Bear in mind I know little about commodity prices - being primary an equity investor. If someone can explain all this (in any relatively simple manner or point me in the right direction) it would be much appreciated.

[MJP]

Sorry Abrak, bit of Wiki-kee-kee-aat to begin with.

Biflation is the state of an economy where the processes of inflation and deflation occur simultaneously. During this period there is a rise in the purchasing prices of commodity items and a fall in the purchasing prices of non-commodity items.

The purchasing price of an item is based on the demand for it and the amount of money in circulation to pay for it.

Biflation is preceded by an overabundance of money placed in circulation within the population by a central bank. Since commodities (such as food, energy, clothing) are essential and are in high demand, the purchase price for them rises due to the increased money available to buy them. This increasing purchase amount is price inflation.

One reason is liquidity flees to the safest and most liquid assets. This causes the money supply at upper levels of the pyramid to shrink while the money supply at lower levels of the pyramid expands. This causes deflation as the money supply evaporates away.

Likewise, biflation is preceded by a decrease in employment within the population. Although there is an increase of money in circulation, fewer people have access to the money to make purchases. As a result, a greater percentage of individual wages is directed toward purchasing commodities and less is utilized for purchasing non-commodity items. Since debt-based assets (such as automobiles, televisions, stocks) are less essential and are in lower demand, the purchase price for them falls due to the decreased money available to buy them. This decreased purchase amount is price deflation.

Bit in bold. No money to buy houses (already built), houses go down. Also no money to buy fertiliser and farm machinery, food supply reduced, same demand, prices go up. This is happening from what I've read.

Add to that the bailout money heading for commodities market to leverage a bubble in human needs to off-set the burst housing bubble (well I reckon anyway). But no bailout money going head into land (that's what house prices really are, land inflation), becuase it's an asset class in demise.

Depends on country. Iceland because it imports it's food, apart from the ten billion haddock it's surrounded by. Currency crash, import prices WOW!. But house prices, WOOO!!!!

What think, Dink?

[Abrak]

MJP,

Fully understand your explanation and agree with it and more. In that I believe that that 2/3rd world countries will eventually lead our way out of this mess (which along with the debt reliable assets deflating relative would add to my view that basic commodities will outperform.)

As I said while I get the argument I cant help respecting the statistics which was say gold was a better bet either in a major inflation/deflation cycle. Imagine for instance in a deflationary environment huge numbers of Chinese workers return to their farms and so increase rice output, as a result the price falls. Now I made up that argument so I wont pretend it is valid but I can see that as a scenario - namely less workers going into manufacturing, and increase in basic commodity out put which leads to a price fall.

Now I dont really represent that as a serious argument but while someone cant explain to me why I would have lost half my money in corn or rice in the last great depression, I cant really understand why I should bet anything else.

Edited May 17, 2009 by Abrak