More Good News ! Time To Weaken The Bhat

[hangusthemonkey]

Thailand's exports slumped by more than a quarter in May - a record fall - as demand for Thai goods overseas continued to drop during the downturn.

Exports fell by 26.6% compared with a year earlier, to $11.7bn (£7.1bn). Imports dropped by 34.7% to $9.3bn.

"Exports to key markets were all lower due to weak demand and intensifying competition," the government said.

The Thai economy, which is suffering from its worst recession in decades, is heavily dependent on exports.

And analysts believe the country's exporters, which account for more than 60% of Thailand's entire economic activity, will continue to suffer.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8108859.stm

[Chaimai]

Nice balance of payments surplus there, if the headline figures are correct.

The THB/USD is probably the key rate as the major exports i.e. rice are traded in Dollars.

[Maizefarmer]

Since discussion on Thai Visa forums started regards the impact the so-called credit crunch and world wide recession was liklely to have on Thailands economy, I have repeated a number of points time and time again:

a) that the economic impact on Thailand would only start to really be felt some 12 - 18months after it commenced in the West - primarily (at least from a manufacturing & export perspective) because it would take that amount of time for existing production contracts to be filled - which are then not replaced with new production contracts. Well, as can be seen now, that very point has come home to roost - and its my opinion Thailand will see that +/- 26% figure grow to around 34% - 38% between now and the end of Q1/2010.

the strength of the TB would would compound the situation i.e. a 26% recorded drop is in a way "misleading" - the reality of the situation is substantially worse: Western brandnames are now starting to look ahead, and anticipate a turn around in Western retail sales sometime Q3/Q4 2010. Prepearing for production costs means factoring in the strenght of the TB - and that means the likes of Timberland, Nike, Levi, Wrangler, and the white goods manufacturers are not going to be considering Thai based factories. Nope - they will be looking towards China, Malaysia, Indonesia and other South East Asian countries.

c) will the TB turn? - yes, I believe it is going to do so sometime during the 2nd half of this year, or Q1/Q2 next year - and its going to be a very significant turn around, if not indeed a devaluation. But it won't be to the late Q3 or Q4 next year that the next bunch of quaterly production quota's from Western brandnames begin to return to Thailand.

As for ex-pats and their money: if you have Euro's/U$D and £, and are intending to bring it into Thailand to spend on land/house/apartment or car - don't do so yet: you can expect to see at least 25%, and quite likely more than 30%, turn around in the exchange rate sometime later this year, or sometime during first halve of next year as Thailands fiscal policy makers scramble to repair the damage the strong Baht has done to Thailand over the preceeding 18-24 months.

[noahvail]

That's an interesting and well-reasoned post. It permits a glimmer of hope in the increasingly dark financial news we've been seeing. I'm sure there are those out there who would be coming at you to deconstruct the post, but I hope it can stand on its own.

[samran]

I don't think that the BOT and senior policy makers particilarly care very much what the baht does against the USD. Up, down, sideways, doesn't matter.

A friend interviewed a bunch of senior MOF and BOT policy makers a month or two ago. Their consistent line was so long as the baht was no less competitive (relatively) against other regional competitors currencies (vis a vis) the USD, they don't really care what it does.

to that extent, trying to predict a devaluation/appriciation is useless as what matters is thailands relative competitiveness regionally.

[EnhancePlus]

Does the government ever ask why their exports are failing or just blame it on the AH1N1 flu?

[Heng]

Orchid exports (for us, and industry wide even) have been rock solid this year, despite the world going into a big black hole. People still getting married, falling in love, etc. and still feel the NEED to give people the flower part of these plants that wilt after 10-15 days. The one hit we took was when the airport closed.

Edited June 20, 2009 by Heng

[soundman]

Topic continued here.