Bird Flu Warning

[twix38]

If fear of this flu makes me scour the web and have to read "the Scotsman", pay out $109 bucks for a drug that I may need because 15 people have died from it in three months. Then I think I would rather take my chances. By anyones standard the death toll is not that high and you will probably get knocked down by a bus on the way to the chemist because you reading the Lancet and not looking where you were going. It is peoples reliance on drugs and antibioics that have created all these super bugs, yet we still go running to the pharmacy at the slightest urgeing from the WHO, it's like using petrol to put out a fire

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Toastwars,

A simple Google search for top stories does the trick. Mortality rate at about 70%+, although could change and hopefully reduce on reassortment, if becomes a Pandemic. It's not the figures now, it's the potential if gene reassortment allows sustained human to human transmission.

Surely the WHO are not known for scaremongering and the future threat is real and alarming. My crystal ball is no better than your own, but as a cautious guy I would rather have some Tamiflu than not. The WHO seem to think a Pandemic overdue and quite likely that Bird Flu could become the next Pandemic, if so you may not live to regret it. Of course, you may well personally help your wish for Human pruning. Each to their own. Pesonally a few £'s, $'s or Baht is not a heavy price to pay and it treats all types of Flu, so good enough to keep in the medicine cabinet for you or a friend in the years to come.

Perhaps your visits to the beach to bury your head in the sand should continue. He he

I do agree with you generally on our race to the Doctors at the slightest sneeze for Antibiotics and that we have made our own problems in regard to bacterial resistance etc. Often Antibiotics are not even correctly prescribed in the first place

May I mention that my original posting also made the point that Thaskin was playing fast and loose with public health again, just as he has focused on tourism and economic priorities before. True to form he even tried to hide the truth about the earlier Bird Flu episode until he no longer could. IMHO he should now be culling the Duck population as recommended by his own minister for the committee set up to oversee these operations and public health. This guy is a businessman, crook and liability. Whilst I also have to recognise he is perhaps the best there is available and won a resounding victory.

Edited February 24, 2005 by twix38

[Felt 35]

I have been in Europe for a couple weeks. Going back to Phuket next week.

Will the customs care, (if they should check) if I bring a few boxes extra with Tami flue with me?

[udon]

The death toll so far is 45+

[khunlungphudhu]

So many threats to life, my life, so many ways to go, I'll be blowed if I am going to worry my way into a grave!

[bartender100]

Anyone brought any in Thailand yet?

[h5n1]

cheers twix - just having a bit of a rant but i would point out to you and many of the other posters that seem to think that 'tamiflu' is somehow going to do anything save for cure a few minor symptoms are dreaming -and that is not a rant. pls re-read the blurb from cdc:

Fever was often the first symptom,

dyspnea often occurred a median of 5 days after illness onset (range 1–16). all patients were found to have fever, cough, and dyspnea,

almost half had myalgia and diarrhea.

intermittent high fevers [NOTE THIS IS HUGE DANGER FOR ADULTS]

persistent cough productive of thick sputum.

One patient had a small amount of hemoptysis.

organ failure or dysfunction was commonly observed,

including respiratory failure in 9 (75%) patients,

cardiac failure in 5 (42%),

renal dysfunction in 4 (33%).

this is potentially a massive problem on the scale persons currently living have never seen and you are living in the epicenter.

[twix38]

cheers twix - just having a bit of a rant but i would point out to you and many of the other posters that seem to think that 'tamiflu' is somehow going to do anything save for cure a few minor symptoms are dreaming -and that is not a rant. pls re-read the blurb from cdc:

Fever was often the first symptom,

dyspnea often occurred a median of 5 days after illness onset (range 1–16). all patients were found to have fever, cough, and dyspnea,

almost half had myalgia and diarrhea.

intermittent high fevers [NOTE THIS IS HUGE DANGER FOR ADULTS]

persistent cough productive of thick sputum.

One patient had a small amount of hemoptysis.

organ failure or dysfunction was commonly observed,

including respiratory failure in 9 (75%) patients,

cardiac failure in 5 (42%),

renal dysfunction in 4 (33%).

this is potentially a massive problem on the scale persons currently living have never seen and you are living in the epicenter.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree H5NI, these symptoms are dreadfull. My oppinion however is that although Tamiflu is not the real answer (a vaccine is) it is the best we have. As the medicine MUST be taken within first 2 days of symptoms, the reason for this is clear because Tamiflu blocks the cell receptors that the Bird Flu virus attaches to and it must have a chance to compete with the virus. Thus, it follows that as the virus in this cell cannot then multiply and infect new cells the further details you supply should not occur. Well this is the theory and who knows it's perhaps a 50/50 (I would hope a little better)rather than the odds you get without it.

I fully realise we do not know the full facts and many other important factors, but as I have said, it is all there is right now and I would rather have some.

Good luck to all you out there in Asia. I am in the UK now and you should see the government plan being prepared if it comes here. Contingency for portable morgues, evacuating Cities and banning large gatherings such as Football matches and concerts etc. Governments are indeed also ordering to stockpile Tamiflu, and Ken Livingstone (London Mayor) has placed an order for key workers such as Hospital, emergency services etc.

I might add that the WHO expect a strong possibility that the Pandemic will be next year. Of course it may never happen (well it will one day!)

Edited February 25, 2005 by twix38

[chuchok]

Bird flu shots coming - in winter

25.02.05

The Ministry of Health says it has secured a deal to cover 20 per cent of the country during a flu pandemic.

The bulk of the vaccine is expected to arrive in mid-winter, although the first batch is expected in May.

The Director-General of Health, Dr Karen Poutasi, said the ministry had ordered hundreds of thousands of doses of the Roche product Tamiflu to help it deal with the prospect of a pandemic of bird flu or a similar type of influenza.

The announcement comes a week after the ministry, which was questioned about New Zealand's preparedness for coping with a bird flu pandemic, said it was negotiating to buy extra vaccine doses to add to the 20,000 it already possessed.

"We are buying more than 800,000 doses - sufficient to cover approximately 20 per cent of the population," Dr Poutasi said yesterday.

Questions about New Zealand's preparedness were raised last week after a World Health Organisation official said this month that up to 100 million people around the world could die within weeks if a bird flu pandemic broke out.

"This purchase is in line with international recommendations, and will put us on the same sort of footing as Australia and well ahead of many other countries," Dr Poutasi said.

"It is important to note, however, that there has been no sudden change in the international situation.

"Particularly pertinent is the fact that the World Health Organisation has not recorded any human deaths from avian influenza since February 9 this year."

Dr Poutasi said people who took Tamiflu as soon as they developed influenza symptoms "have been shown to have less severe illness, of shorter duration and may be less likely to infect others as they shed less of the virus".

The WHO has confirmed 10 human cases of bird flu so fat this year in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. Human cases have been the result of direct contact with infected birds. Green Party health spokeswoman Sue Kedgley last week said the Government should have acted sooner to stockpile the doses.

- NZPA

[Felt 35]

"It is important to note, however, that there has been no sudden change in the international situation.

Maybe no change in sick or Human deaths but absolutely a change in awareness.

Even here in Northern Europe, more than 8000Km from where the bird flu first started, Governments order vacination to all the population and selling Tami flue as ever before.

BTW, the prescription to the Tamiflue tablets says that it can be used as a preventive.

[toastwars]

So many threats to life, my life, so many ways to go, I'll be blowed if I am going to worry my way into a grave!

Too right, you won't catch me in one of those masks unless I am playing "doctors and nurses" There are much more prevelant killers out there but not everyone is running around screaming like ladies and waving their hands in the air because ebola virus is 90% fatal. Like I said I am all for a little global population thinning anyway. I vote Drug company execs first, of which I susspect there are a few posting on this thread.

Edited February 25, 2005 by toastwars

[chuchok]

Cost of a course of Tamiflu in NZ is US$51....you guys are getting ripped

[Felt 35]

ebola virus is 90% fatal. Like I said I am all for a little global population thinning anyway.

I did not know that "Ebola" had killed Humans in Thailand!

[bina]

get serious, how many people run to a doctor the first day or two with fever etc. think its just an other virus. we had hospitals in israel filled 250% two weeks ago due to flue w/complications: old people, babies/children and immune deficient types... my daughter was in hospital one night w/bad asthma as complication... had three elderly types from kibbutz hospitalized etc... but to take tamiflu every time u have a fever? it could be a million and one things besides THE FLU .... BTW several deaths in hospitals here including VIP person's mother due to lack of available care: she was in a hall way and the staff was also sick and spread way to thin.... my daughter was released after one nite to get cont. treatment at home to avoid hospital induced complications.... may be i'm used to third world setups (we have advanced tech. care but third worl attitudes) but it seems scare tactics and drug company profits are playing a big role here.... your chance of dying in thailand in a car acciident seem 200% higher than getting sick and dying, and u cant control either scenario.

[twix38]

bina

get serious, if Bird Flu is prevalent, Human to Human transmission confirmed, people in suffering with it and in the daily news, then you might think more carefully about any Flu symptoms on top of these facts. It's a common sense approach. Bird Flu transmission occuring = see a doctor if you have Flu symtoms and take Tamiflu in a common sense way reletive to the circumstances. It is a Flu medication and not just for Bird Flu, so check and act on symptoms in first 2 days.

Ebola not around, but if it was in my back yard, I would be giving the same (even more urgent) advice to get out or get any medication recommended in a similar way.

To me there is something wrong with some people's view of the situation and taking minor reasonable precautions on a "just in case" basis to be sensible.

You might get knocked down by a Bus tomorrow, but if you knew the bus was forcast (W.H.O.) by the timetable to come along and you were in the middle of the road, would you stay where you are, sit down and shut your eyes.... waiting, rather than make the slightest effort to move(get some protection). Timescales are relative and this Bus is already running late and overdue!!

Edited February 26, 2005 by twix38

[twix38]

bina

get serious, if Bird Flu is prevalent, Human to Human transmission confirmed, generally people suffering with it and in the daily news, then you might think more carefully about any Flu symptoms on top of these facts. It's a common sense approach. Bird Flu transmissions occuring = see a doctor if you have Flu symtoms and take Tamiflu in a common sense way relative to the circumstances. It is a Flu medication and not just for Bird Flu.

Ebola not around, but if it was in my back yard with the WHO banging on about it, I would be giving the same (even more urgent) advice to get out or get any medication recommended in a similar way.

To me there is something wrong with some people's view of the situation and taking minor reasonable precautions on a "just in case" basis to be sensible.

You might get knocked down by a Bus tomorrow, but if you knew the bus was forcast (W.H.O.) by the timetable to come along and you were in the middle of the road, would you stay where you are, sit down and shut your eyes.... waiting, rather than make the slightest effort to move(get some protection). Timescales are relative and this Bus is already running late and overdue!!

It is my preference to take sensible precautions in advance, if they are reasonable, practical and affordable. Then with peace of mind (even if deluded) I can sleep better. If I never take my Tamiflu, then great. I never got the Flu

Could it really be about cost and availability. If it was $15 and in the Chemist down the road, would you have it already in the cabinet with the Asprins? I think so...

BTW, I am nothng to do with Roche etc, just happens that Tamiflu is the only drug around(look for yourself what's recommended and being stockpiled) and the risks imho, if realised, are not worth ignoring.

Edited February 26, 2005 by twix38

[chuchok]

These reporters spout alot of crap,but this was front page on in the NZ Herald....

'Worldwide pandemic’ of bird flu predicted

27.02.05

By Geoffrey Lean and Jan McGirk in Bangkok

Lek, a beggar who squats like a troll atop a pedestrian bridge in central Bangkok, used to keep a fluffy baby chick to attract passers-by to his outstretched cup.

When bird flu broke out last year and Thai farmers were forced to cull 60 million poultry, he switched to a cute duckling instead.

Last week, when Thailand’s livestock ministry announced that 2.7 million free-range ducks must be slaughtered because water fowl can harbour and transmit the deadly H5N1 virus without showing any symptoms, Lek replaced his duckling with a wind-up toy.

Yet even though a third wave of avian influenza is scything through hen houses in nearly half the provinces of neighbouring Vietnam, there is little consumer concern in the Thai capital. Such a blase response is surprising, given that 42 people in South-east Asia have died from bird flu complications during the past 13 months, with 13 fatalities since January.

The authorities are anything but blase. "The world is now in the gravest possible danger of a pandemic," Dr Shigeru Omi of the World Health Organisation warned an emergency UN conference in Vietnam last week.

Joseph Domenech, head of animal health at the Food and Agriculture Organisation, called the threat "a sword of Damocles" hanging over the world. And Dr Julie Gerberding, head of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said: "This a very ominous situation for the globe."

It was a week of the direst predictions yet that the flu could soon rapidly spread across the globe, killing tens of millions of people; by one authoritative estimate 500,000 could die in Britain alone.

On Friday, New Zealand became the latest government to announce a mass purchase of oseltamavir, the only drug known to be effective against the virus which has so far killed over 70 per cent of those known to have caught it. This follows mass orders by countries such as France - which is buying 13 million courses - Japan, Australia and Sweden.

But Britain has yet to decide whether to follow suit. There is a longstanding stockpile of some 100,000 courses, but the Government has not added to it since the crisis began. Yet Professor John Oxford, of London University’s Queen Mary and Westfield College - one of the world’s leading authorities on the disease - says that Britain would need some 20 million courses. He said: "This is a national emergency."

Yesterday, at Bangkok’s Chatuchak market, a vast open air warren of stalls, fighting cocks were on sale and several bold birds were strutting outside their cages, close to hawkers selling piglets, and kittens.

Chomsri Chattong, an information officer for the market that attracts a quarter of a million customers every weekend, dismissed any concerns that the crowded alleyways lined with caged songbirds and gamebirds, cockatoos and parrots might pose any risk.

The Thais, who used to be the world’s fourth largest exporter of poultry products, are learning to live with the disease, just as they have learned to cope with Aids. Workers who prepare raw poultry or pluck feathers increasingly don latex gloves or protective masks. Few Thais have yet bothered to stockpile Tamiflu, a prescription medication used to treat symptoms in humans.

Elsewhere in Asia, stocks have sold out after researchers announced that the virus had been detected in pigs and in sand flies. Senior virologists say it is only a matter of time before this variety of bird flu mutates and becomes a scourge capable of killing tens of millions of people.

- INDEPENDENT

[MikeWill]

Thailand, one of two countries at the centre of the bird flu outbreak, is refusing to act against its spread, scuppering attempts to stop a devastating pandemic expected to kill tens of millions of people around the globe.

An emergency plan to tackle the disease, drawn up by the country's Deputy Prime Minister, would have involved slaughtering more than ten million ducks and chickens, and distributing face masks to protect people from catching the flu. But it has been rejected on the grounds that it could alarm the public.

The country's decision contrasts with the effective action being taken in nearby Vietnam, the only nation to be hit harder than Thailand, which has slowed the spread of the disease by killing 1.5 million birds since December.

A ban on raising poultry came into force in the capital, Ho Chi Minh City, last week. A major UN conference called to consider how to combat the disease opens in the city on Wednesday. Although outbreaks of the disease continue in Vietnam, it appears to have been beaten, at least temporarily, in seven of the country's provinces.

Twenty-nine people are so far confirmed dead in Vietnam and 12 in Thailand, but the virus, codenamed H5N1, has yet to mutate into a form which can spread rapidly among people. Experts agree that the best way of preventing this is to stamp the disease out among poultry.

Hong Kong is thought to have averted a worldwide catastrophe in 1997, after 18 people were affected, by slaughtering its entire poultry population in only three days.

Thailand's decision not to act, the personal initiative of its Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, marks the second time in two months that it has failed to take life-saving action in the face of a looming disaster. On Boxing Day, it was one of only two Indian Ocean countries to receive an immediate warning of the tsunami. But it failed to relay this to its coastal people or to tourists on the beaches until after long after the wave hit. Experts suggested that the warning was delayed because it might damage tourism.

Similar charges are being made this weekend, after the failure to act on bird flu. The Prime Minister intervened to stop the $124.7m (£66m) plan, after the cabinet had already approved it, concerned that it would alarm the public and other countries.

The government says that it needs more information. Yesterday it announced a two-year research programme into developing a vaccine against the disease.

...  A drug that can treat it, oseltamivir, already exists, and is mainly marketed as Tamiflu. But although other countries are rushing to stockpile Tamiflu, the Department of Health says it will make no decision before the spring. 

  23 February 2005 09:24

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

WHO is calling on governments to develop contingency plans... to stockpile vaccines... to put the focus on the sources of infection... to rise general awareness... and come up with timely preparations...

These are the main issues to combat the avian flu.

Ducks as one of the main sources of infection are capable of excreting large amounts of viruses into the environment.

Several countries were accused last year of covering up outbreaks.

Avian flu has already killed 12 people in Thailand.

What the Thailand government has done since the WHO conference in Vietnam?

What protective measures Thailand has taken on so far?

It seems to me that these questions should be openly directed to the Thai officials in charge, i.e. the Prime Minister.

[toastwars]

"shock,Horror" not 12 people, that is devastating I must rush

off to give a pharmacy a big pile of cash..how long has this "crisis" been

going on? The death toll is massive...Oh wait...hasn't it been going on

for over a year? me thinks pizza is a bigger killer than bird flu, is there

a vacine against pizza?

[twix38]

"shock,Horror" not 12 people, that is devastating I must rush

off to give a pharmacy a big pile of cash..how long has this "crisis" been

going on? The death toll is massive...Oh wait...hasn't it been going on

for over a year? me thinks pizza is a bigger killer than bird flu, is there

a vacine against pizza?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Projections, heard of them? Scientific expectations, W.H.O., CDC, Press warnings, read any of them? Heard we are overdue and if not Bird Flu then another Flu and deemed not IF but when. Tamiflu, a general Flu medicine, so always welcome in the Medicne cabinet.

I will now make a prediction. You can't afford a packet of Asprin, let alone more expensive medicine. Otherwise, you would have it already just to play on the safe side instead of arguing the professional advice and warnings being issued.

You are not the cautious type, that I feel confident about.

Good luck to you anyway. We each have our own oppinion and way of dealing with potential levels of threat.

Edited February 28, 2005 by twix38

[toastwars]

I might stop eating pizza!

[twix38]

I might stop eating pizza!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Nice one,

I might stop breathing, that should stop infections :-)

[waldwolf]

Now i'm worried as to whether or not I could catch this bird-flu from the chicken feathers in my bed pillows?

Edited February 28, 2005 by waldwolf

[Felt 35]

QUOTE]scare tactics and drug company profits are playing a big role here

Of course they play a role, but I don’t get the feeling that they play the leading role!

Because this time they are not alone about the cast! (Below)

WHO is calling on governments to develop contingency plans... to stockpile vaccines... to put the focus on the sources of infection... to rise general awareness... and come up with timely preparations...

Why doesn’t the Thai Government act?

Prime Minister intervened to stop the $124.7m (£66m) plan, after the cabinet had already approved it, concerned that it would alarm the public and other countries.

Well people who have been around for a while know that the priority here is

Face, profit, status and on the bottom of the list, Human Life.

If I live in an "outpost" North in Europe most of the year, bird flue was the last thing I would worry about. But because I live most of the year here where Human life is of less value, do I have bought Tami flue in case it could help at least for keep wifey and me healthy as long as it eventually would take to evacuate.

I don’t see that as been hysterical because on the contrary my own Government have ordered vaccination to each and every citizen.

We have no guaranty for that Tami flue will help if we should get a pandemic, but at least I have done what I can as prevention.

Hopefully WHO is wrong and we will never need any Tami flue or vaccination.

BTW, Tami flue sell in Europe for US 40,- pack.

[twix38]

Well said Felt 35,

A sensible and rational view based on the facts as they unfold and the best projections available.

You might want to avoid Pizza too. :-) (joke re earlier post)

[Mr_C]

To the people in the UK saying we are making massive plans to combat this potential pandemic, how come I have just been to my GP today with regards to vaccinations for a 3 month stay in thailand, and there was no mention of bird flu?

[Felt 35]

To the people in the UK saying we are making massive plans to combat this potential pandemic, how come I have just been to my GP today with regards to vaccinations for a 3 month stay in thailand, and there was no mention of bird flu?

It’s the same a bit more North. I guess it’s because of to little info and a bit misguided info, after all, it is one ting to go here as tourist for two weeks or if people stay here most of the year.

However, I got better info from a medical centre, which specialised in vaccination, and also from the Web to the Peoples Health Department and the Governments Health Directorate.

[Ned]

Still no reply to someone's question: Where can I get some Tamiflu in Thailand? Has anybody been able to get their hands on any here? Cheers.

[pedro01]

Still no reply to someone's question: Where can I get some Tamiflu in Thailand? Has anybody been able to get their hands on any here? Cheers.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I just ordered mine - paid by AMEX - $219.99 for 30 pills - enough for me, wife & son.

It's 2 pills a day for 5 days, right ?

I've had them shipped to the UK & I'll have someone bring them over in April.

I got them from www.drugdelivery.ca - I'll post again if they are delivered succesfully to the UK.

I got a feeling mr toastwars will flame me for this - but what's $219.99 if it some day saves my sons life ?

[twix38]

I got a feeling mr toastwars will flame me for this - but what's $219.99 if it some day saves my sons life ?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Of course, my sentiments entirely. Only the poor and ill informed would not take sensible precautions.

As Tamiflu is preventative and the only treatment to at least reduce symptoms and perhaps save lives and is for all Flu types, it is only common sense if you are informed to have some in this environment.

The W.H.O. expert last night on Channel 4 in England actually said Antivirals were 1st line of defence right now.

[Rinrada]

To the people in the UK saying we are making massive plans to combat this potential pandemic, how come I have just been to my GP today with regards to vaccinations for a 3 month stay in thailand, and there was no mention of bird flu?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

£200m vaccine will be just a stopgap against flu outbreak

By Nigel Hawkes

More than 53,000 people could die, but antiviral jab will not prevent all the deaths

THE Government took out a £200 million insurance policy yesterday against an epidemic of flu that could kill more than 50,000 people.

Under political pressure and on the eve of a World Health Organisation meeting in Luxembourg to discuss flu preparedness, the Department of Health rushed out a plan based on buying 14.6 million courses of the antiviral drug Tamiflu.

The plan says that more than 53,000 people could die in a pandemic in Britain unless precautions are taken. The only sure defence is a vaccine, but that cannot be made until the precise make-up of any pandemic strain is known.

Tamiflu is a stop-gap measure but should reduce the severity of the disease and prevent some deaths, said Professor Maria Zambon, head of the National Influenza Centre at the Health Protection Agency.

Yesterday’s announcement came after warnings from WHO that a strain of bird flu with the ability to spread rapidly in people could develop, turning the few cases of human infection that have occurred in Asia into a global epidemic. John Reid, the Health Secretary, said: “We are working closely with other governments and WHO to ensure the international community is as well prepared as it can be to spot and address the early signs of a pandemic. However, it makes sense to ensure that we in the UK . . . have drugs against an influenza pandemic.”

The quantity of the drug ordered is based on the assumption that one in four people will catch the disease. The estimated 53,700 deaths assumes a one in 300 mortality rate among those infected, as in the 1957 Asian flu pandemic.

In Asia, the death toll from bird flu has been much higher, at 75 per cent of those infected. But an avian flu virus that has developed the ability to infect people easily is expected to lose some virulence in the process, becoming much less lethal than pure bird flu which infects only those in direct contact with birds.

There are, however, many uncertainties. The 1918-19 flu virus killed 1 per cent of those it infected, and if this were reproduced in a new pandemic the death toll in Britain would reach 141,800 in the absence of effective action.

In the extreme case considered, where half the population catches flu and the mortality rate is 2 per cent, more than 700,000 people would die. But the 50,000 figure is considered much more likely.

Sir Liam Donaldson, the Chief Medical Officer, said: “Wherever in the world a flu pandemic starts, perhaps with its epicentre in the Far East, we must assume we will be unable to prevent it reaching the UK.

“When it does, its impact will be severe in the number of illnesses and the disruption to everyday life.”

In a typical year, between 12,000 and 18,000 people die from “seasonal” flu, mainly among high-risk groups such as the elderly. Pandemic flu occurs when the virus changes sufficiently to attack people who have acquired immunity to the regular strains

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8122-1507087,00.html