What % of fake visa busts were of innocents?

[Indo-Siam]

I have never before initiated a thread on this forum, so I thought I'd see how the process works.

So -  I will pose several questions in ignorance, and seek informed input.

We all know that some number of foreigners have been arrested/detained and face punishment for - knowingly or not - having used unofficial procedures to obtain fraudulent entry and/or and exit permits for Thailand, which resulted in illegitimate stamps appearing in their passports.  (I know of no more neutral way to state this situation).

First question:  How many total foreigners do informed people on this board believe have 1) already been arrested;  2)  will be arrested later;  and 3) would ultimately be liable to arrest, if all such practitioners were identified?

Second question:  Following from the first, of all foreigners entering and leaving Thailand over say the past three years, what are your thoughts concerning the percentage of the total that were - knowingly or not - using documents with fraudulent entries?

Third question: Of the total of foreigners who have used services that provided fraudulent immigration stamps, what - in your opinion  - is the breakdown between:

1)  Naive tourists, who got misled by crafty Thai con artists, and had no clue that they were becoming enmeshed in fraudulent  activity, and used such services only once, or infrequently.

2)  Expats or frequent visitorts who used these services regularly, but were under the impression that they were fully above-board - effectively being fooled by slick Thai con artists.

3)  Expats or frequent visitors who normally followed the official way of doing things, but under some sort of unusual circumstance, took a known risk, and knowingly used a dodgy visa service just once, or very infrequently - hoping for the best.

4)  Well-informed expats who regularly used these services despite knowing that they were performing an illegal service, but who wanted to "beat the system" and not have to make legal (and comparatively expensive) border runs.

5)  Subset of group 4 who laughed at fellow expats who made real visa hops, and chided them for being unimaginative dullards.

I can honestly say that I have no real idea concerning the actual numbers.  I am convinced that there is a drastic difference of opinions/perceptions concerning what percentage of "busted individuals" fall into each of the first four categories under question 3.

Comments from all are welcome.  All I ask is that you answer the questions by providing your own opinions, and not take issue with anyone else's opinions.  We are talking about opinions, and each individual is the absolute and total expert on what his own personal opinions are.

I am particularly interested in seeing input from the "silent majority" or viewers who rarely post - and particularly those who are long-term residents here who are very familiar with the historical availability of these fraudulent services - and the common practices of frequent visitors and other expats.

Thanks to all who participate.  I hope to have my level of understanding improved, with respect to the perceptions of the "average Joe" reader here.  It has been suggested to me elsewhere on this forum that I have extreme and way-off-the-mark perceptions, and I am eager to recalibrate myself back to the center of the bell curve.

Steve Sykes

Managing Director

Indo-Siam Group

www.indo-siam.com

[Maigo6]

Well Steve, i have in the past  used an agent, a thai guy actually, in Pattaya. I used to do my own, i got friendly with him after a few visa runs in the Mini bus to the border, he said that for 500 baht more than i was paying he could do it for me, i asked if there was a problem with this, he said he does it everyday and it is no problem. I guess its what i wanted to hear, although i did have thoughts about what would happen if he was involved in an accident, and my passport was with him, not me.

I guess i had been in Thailand too long and when he said that his contact was an immigration policeman at the Border i accepted the risk. Of course things have now changed, i wont be doing it again, but as i now work overseas i wont have to, i go through the airport every 4-5 weeks get a 30 day stamp, then i am gone again before it is finished.

So i kinda knew it may be dodgy, but maybe i had been in Thailand so long i became complacent, luckily i never had a problem, but i do feel a bit sorry for the guy's that have found they are in trouble, after all, the agent service was going on for years. I guess a few hundred have got a problem, but thousands used those services over the years, so some are unlucky. Some used the service knowing it was dodgy, some used it on advice of others, some used it thinking it was legal, that's life.

cheers

[foolwholaughsatdeath]

I'll play along, although I agree that this is basically based just on different people's perceptions and experiences and the questions themselves defy scientific inquiry.  Wonder if this thread might have been better structured as a poll or series of polls.. maybe not.   Here goes!

First question:  How many total foreigners do informed people on this board believe have

1) already been arrested;  between 50 to 150

2)  will be arrested later;  hopefully zero, up to 100

3) would ultimately be liable to arrest, if all such practitioners were identified?  several thousand

Second question:  Following from the first, of all foreigners entering and leaving Thailand over say the past three years, what are your thoughts concerning the percentage of the total that were - knowingly or not - using documents with fraudulent entries?  i'd say this figure is low compared to the millions of tourists that come for two weeks and leave.  maybe 5-10%

Third question: Of the total of foreigners who have used services that provided fraudulent immigration stamps, what - in your opinion  - is the breakdown between:

1)  Naive tourists, who got misled by crafty Thai con artists, and had no clue that they were becoming enmeshed in fraudulent  activity, and used such services only once, or infrequently.   you don't mention crafty farang agents, but i'll just assume you mean all crafty agents.   20%

2)  Expats or frequent visitorts who used these services regularly, but were under the impression that they were fully above-board - effectively being fooled by slick Thai con artists.  Same thing here, all agents.  25%

3)  Expats or frequent visitors who normally followed the official way of doing things, but under some sort of unusual circumstance, took a known risk, and knowingly used a dodgy visa service just once, or very infrequently - hoping for the best.  15%

4)  Well-informed expats who regularly used these services despite knowing that they were performing an illegal service, but who wanted to "beat the system" and not have to make legal (and comparatively expensive) border runs  39%.

5)  Subset of group 4 who laughed at fellow expats who made real visa hops, and chided them for being unimaginative dullards. 1% or less.

[Indo-Siam]

One item of information - according to the TAT (TAT Statistics), the number of international tourist arrivals into Thailand during 2002 was 10,874,978.  So there were at least that many entries and exits.  I would have to think that non-tourist arrivals must push that number up to at least 11 million (although maybe the TAT scores every arrival as a tourist?).

Looking at the graph, it is interesting to see the effect of SARS.  Not too much doubt that SARS badly hurt this sector.