The Stock Market

[lannarebirth]

Well, all you sons of Livermore; tomorrow 11/17/09 at $SPX 1121.44 marks the 50% retrace of Time and Price of the 10/11/07-3/6/09 decline. That's all the headwinds I have in this area. More at 1150-1160 and a lead cloud near 1200.

We really need some consolidation for a week or so , next 3 days will be interesting. Took some more profits but now in Que other stock anticipating a descent drop tonight.

Just my opinion, but there's no time for much consolidation in this market. It's got to get some air under it before conditions change. Best case IMO is 1190-1210 in 4 weeks time. Other scenarios are less rosy. OCICBW blah blah.

Futures just gobbled up again. The big danger (not for me ) as I mentioned the instos cant avoid staying out the higher we go. but still would like a week or so of consolidation to indicate which way next. Im still in with 80% of life savings crazy yeah but was crazier last year

Is that the news that's being spun? The "instos" have to buy? Let me tell you something. Most institutional investors are always in, but sometimes they have to sell. Particularly if they've been using too much leverage. Margin levels are high now (great indicator BTW), but not record breaking.

[zorro1]

"Let me tell you something"

yeah I know you been telling me for months "

[badge]

Futures just gobbled up again. The big danger (not for me ) as I mentioned the instos cant avoid staying out the higher we go. but still would like a week or so of consolidation to indicate which way next. Im still in with 80% of life savings crazy yeah but was crazier last year

For every insto buying, theres an insto selling; its zero-sum. And there will always be big money on the sidelines, infact it will always grow, as more is printed.

[lannarebirth]

"Let me tell you something"

yeah I know you been telling me for months "

I think this is the sum total of what I've suggested to you here.

1) averaging down is stupid and if one continues the practice it eventually leads to financial ruin.

2) One shouldn't pay much attention to the Dow Jones Industrial Index as it's not very meaningful.

3) Institutions are always in with varying degrees of leverage. Institutional selling is a better indicator than institutional buying.

[lannarebirth]

Now there's an Index worth watching:

http://ptv-investing.com/blog/2009/09/01/v...remains-strong/

Edited November 17, 2009 by lannarebirth

[zorro1]

Futures just gobbled up again. The big danger (not for me ) as I mentioned the instos cant avoid staying out the higher we go. but still would like a week or so of consolidation to indicate which way next. Im still in with 80% of life savings crazy yeah but was crazier last year

For every insto buying, theres an insto selling; its zero-sum. And there will always be big money on the sidelines, infact it will always grow, as more is printed.

[zorro1]

"Let me tell you something"

yeah I know you been telling me for months "

I think this is the sum total of what I've suggested to you here.

1) averaging down is stupid and if one continues the practice it eventually leads to financial ruin.

2) One shouldn't pay much attention to the Dow Jones Industrial Index as it's not very meaningful.

3) Institutions are always in with varying degrees of leverage. Institutional selling is a better indicator than institutional buying.

1. i average down no more than twice , and will take a loss quickly if support breached

2. ATM you can virtually intra day trade the ASX by micro movements on futures alone

3. yes /no

4. All of the above are both right and wrong

[midas]

Meredith Whitney: “I haven’t been this bearish in a year”

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/me...-in-a-year.html

[zorro1]

Meredith Whitney: "I haven't been this bearish in a year"

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/me...-in-a-year.html

"I haven't been this bearish in a year"

so she missed the whole rally? didnt read the article the headline says it all rice boy :-) or did she buy untill today and now she is bearish? can you clarify please rice boy, cheers

[badge]

For those folks who like the wacky notions of divergences/non-confirmations, heres S&P 500 cash v Barclays Junk Bond ETF(which being high yield, most closely follows equities).

I also have some resistance on the 'Disney' DOW Index; as I know you guys like this one, at 10425(traded around y'day), 10475 and 10575.

[Abrak]

For those folks who like the wacky notions of divergences/non-confirmations, heres S&P 500 cash v Barclays Junk Bond ETF(which being high yield, most closely follows equities).

I also have some resistance on the 'Disney' DOW Index; as I know you guys like this one, at 10425(traded around y'day), 10475 and 10575.

That's a really interesting chart. (I know nothing about bonds.)

1. I would have thought that the best return would have come early in the cycle. My theory being that bond holders dont like equities, so the more a bond looks like an equity (because they are likely to place very high risk premium on equity) the better the returns. Incidentally some equities turn into bonds effectively which I suspect give better returns than bonds with equivalent risk.

2. The second thing you hear is that equities are discounting a V shaped recovery while bonds are reflecting a U shaped recovery. To me equities are just reflecting a very low and friendly interest rate environment.

Edited November 19, 2009 by Abrak

[midas]

Listen to what Steve Meyers says at 1.59

“ no real buyers or no real intelligent buyers out there ”

Presumably that means smart money so only hoping for dumb money

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6Mes_PAcvk...embedded#at=140

[zorro1]

Recovery could be breath taking

Strap on your safety harness and get ready for take-off.

20.11.2009 05:33 PM

Strap on your safety harness and get ready for take-off. According to one of our major banks, the economy is about to enter a stronger "trajectory" in 2010, hitting four per cent growth next year.

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=751

Edited November 20, 2009 by zorro1

[Naam]

Listen to what Steve Meyers says at 1.59

“no real buyers or no real intelligent buyers out there ”

Presumably that means smart money so only hoping for dumb money

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6Mes_PAcvk...embedded#at=140

= "the fox and the sour grapes"

sarcasm aside Midas. people like Steve Meyers are nothing but losers who envy this year's success of "dumb" money! anybody who, after seven months, denies that "two plus two equals four" is a poor clown.

[zorro1]

Listen to what Steve Meyers says at 1.59

"no real buyers or no real intelligent buyers out there "

Presumably that means smart money so only hoping for dumb money

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6Mes_PAcvk...embedded#at=140

= "the fox and the sour grapes"

sarcasm aside Midas. people like Steve Meyers are nothing but losers who envy this year's success of "dumb" money! anybody who, after seven months, denies that "two plus two equals four" is a poor clown.

Dont waste your time on Midas he is never going long or short on anything. indeed a poor clown

[Naam]

Zorro,

i did not refer to Midas but to Steve Meyers who (unlike Midas) does not own any rice field and unlike Midas, Steve Meyers is not Thai, id est he can't own any rice field in Thailand... as Midas does (who must be therefore Thai).

[zorro1]

higher highs and lows the journey just beginning

Edited November 21, 2009 by zorro1

[khunjake]

Confirmed SELL on the Russell 2000 Friday 11/20. Didn't get it for the S&P 500 yet but the Russell can be a leading index. We shall see. One other thing that I have noticed is that short-term treasury yields, particularly 90-days US bills have plummeted again toward the Fall '08 lows. Someone's going back into cash big time.

[midas]

Confirmed SELL on the Russell 2000 Friday 11/20. Didn't get it for the S&P 500 yet but the Russell can be a leading index. We shall see. One other thing that I have noticed is that short-term treasury yields, particularly 90-days US bills have plummeted again toward the Fall '08 lows. Someone's going back into cash big time.

Thank you khunjake. That is exactly what Steve Meyers warned about in his video interview

But be careful otherwise people might say you are also a loser and a clown

[midas]

Recovery could be breath taking

Strap on your safety harness and get ready for take-off.

20.11.2009 05:33 PM

Strap on your safety harness and get ready for take-off. According to one of our major banks, the economy is about to enter a stronger "trajectory" in 2010, hitting four per cent growth next year.

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=751

But make sure first you have enough rocket fuel

Fear of 'double dip' haunts global markets

Fears of a fall in equity prices grew last week when Crispin Odey, one of the City's most successful fund managers, ended his bullish stance on equities, revealing he had slashed his exposure to equities fearful of a fall in prices.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...ts-1825251.html

[zorro1]

Throw away your tea leaves people futures up 90 ,betting against the market is the worst you could do. Trillions yet to hit. i have noticed the bears have stopped posting understandable its embarrassing to get it wrong 4 months straight (thread time). one more time for the intellectually challenged

the TREND is your friend

Edited November 23, 2009 by zorro1

[badge]

[...]one more time for the intellectually challenged

the TREND is your friend

Bizarrely I dont think 'trading' requires intellectual enlightenment, but conformity does have its benefits in financial markets. 'Until the bend at the end' that is.

Just to ensure your not mistaken as one of the intellectually challenged, make sure when the trend does change, you announce it nice and clearly fr us all Mr Zorro.

Incidentally if we look at the last 9weeks performance in Americas Value Line Index, the NYSE composite Index and the Nasdaq composite Index, we see indices that are down 1%, up just over 1% and up less than 1%, respectively.

Unimpressive, even for the intellectually challenged, surely?

[lannarebirth]

[...]one more time for the intellectually challenged

the TREND is your friend

Bizarrely I dont think 'trading' requires intellectual enlightenment, but conformity does have its benefits in financial markets. 'Until the bend at the end' that is.

Just to ensure your not mistaken as one of the intellectually challenged, make sure when the trend does change, you announce it nice and clearly fr us all Mr Zorro.

Incidentally if we look at the last 9weeks performance in Americas Value Line Index, the NYSE composite Index and the Nasdaq composite Index, we see indices that are down 1%, up just over 1% and up less than 1%, respectively.

Unimpressive, even for the intellectually challenged, surely?

So, if it the market leader isn't leading, what is?

Oh, I see it's the Dow. Interesting.

[zorro1]

gents all inductors point to a recovery, ie we are out and now have a long a and bumpy road but a bottom is a bottom you guys ask me to announce when i go short however i have asked the same question about you guys time and time again with zip response. in fact the bears run for the woods whenever this topic bought up. all a bit sad really, im the only one to disclose im long, the rest of you poor souls hide in the shadows. typical bear psychology. I didnt miss out and my stops are down low and will be very happy bull if they triggered but I doubt they will. time will tell

[badge]

gents all inductors point to a recovery, ie we are out and now have a long a and bumpy road but a bottom is a bottom you guys ask me to announce when i go short however i have asked the same question about you guys time and time again with zip response. in fact the bears run for the woods whenever this topic bought up. all a bit sad really, im the only one to disclose im long, the rest of you poor souls hide in the shadows. typical bear psychology. I didnt miss out and my stops are down low and will be very happy bull if they triggered but I doubt they will. time will tell

Ive no idea what your talking about?

"make sure when the trend does change, you announce it nice and clearly fr us all Mr Zorro. " - is that a No then?

[zorro1]

Sorry guys dont post here much anymore. Seems some of you need prozac you bringing me down

we bottomed a very long time ago and you guys still waiting for the big W recovery ROFL... have a good day all and good luck you will need lots

cheerio

[William Osborne]

if any semi serious investor missed out on the gains this year.....I would be depressed as well..

I actually invested all my salary (bar my living expenses in thailand) in stocks this year... obviously very risky and didn't seem like a good idea back in March but portfolio is back in double digit gains again....

I am in for longterm but am watching out for the 7 year cycle..

[Abrak]

Throw away your tea leaves people futures up 90 ,betting against the market is the worst you could do. Trillions yet to hit. i have noticed the bears have stopped posting understandable its embarrassing to get it wrong 4 months straight (thread time). one more time for the intellectually challenged

the TREND is your friend

I do think your relentless cheering of the Dow on the 'trend is your friend' is incredibly US centric. You do seem to totally ignore the other relentless 'trend is your friend' movement in the US which is the US$ which has and is still trending lower. On an exchange weighted basis I calculate that the Dow is up about 1.3% since the beginning of the year which on any international basis is pretty disastrous.

And even when you talk about huge cash sitting on the side lines, I wonder if you take into account that in the first 10 months of the year there has been record cash inflows into Asian (and I suspect other emerging markets.)

Obviously the best returns have been made by selling US$ and buying pretty much any other market.

However, have implied that Dow Jones was the worst performing market, I have found one that has performed worse both in actual terms and in US$ terms. It is Iceland.

Seems the Iceland chart doesnt want to show its face. But it can be found here.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/...aspx?Symbol=ISK

And for sure someone is jumping up and down, saying the crisis is over, next stop 4,900 or whatever the high was. Actually that market might be a pretty good punt for the New Year dog returns - I think it has fallen 96% in US$ terms in the last 2 years

Edited November 26, 2009 by Abrak

[lannarebirth]

On this day of Thanksgiving I'd just like to say that I'm thankful I watch the $RUT and not the Dow:

[flying]

On this day of Thanksgiving I'd just like to say that I'm thankful I watch the $RUT and not the Dow:

Not a chart reader but like to follow.

That does look like the classic rounding over.

What would you watch for next? The touching or breaking below the 200 mda?

Very different than GLD climbing the wall. ( Same time period)

Edited November 26, 2009 by flying