The Stock Market

[flying]

(he forecasts large job growth )

Joe Bidden yesterday re the markets.

If that is VP Joe Biden speaking I would be curious as to where he expects those jobs are coming from.

Other than the Census takers of course.

[Naam]

(he forecasts large job growth )

Joe Bidden yesterday re the markets.

If that is VP Joe Biden speaking I would be curious as to where he expects those jobs are coming from.

Other than the Census takers of course.

i haven't heard too much of Biden. but after i heard from him regarding jobs i will refer to him in future as "The Right Honourable Vice President of the Greatest Nation on Earth™"... Sarah Joe Palin Biden.

[midas]

(he forecasts large job growth )

Joe Bidden yesterday re the markets.

If that is VP Joe Biden speaking I would be curious as to where he expects those jobs are coming from.

Other than the Census takers of course.

flying dont worry about jobs..........plenty of those in the government sector

But what about revenue generated ?

http://projectworldawareness.com/2010/04/h...ssions-created/

[zorro1]

Market is about sentiment. I cant see the next 'Sub prime' happening anytime soon, thats been done already

" we got some unlucky breaks on the way down and will get some lucky breaks on the way up" (he forecasts large job growth )

Joe Bidden yesterday re the markets. Simple but very true

IMO if this recovery is real, its quite possible by ignoring the noise we may hit a new historical high.

so opprtunity set is what 20-30% upside versus 90% downside??

You'd better be sure about the upside probability'

Looks like nickels in front of dozers to me......

"Looks like nickels in front of dozers to me"

It was that all the way up. remember at around 6500 people were reading headlines about the great deppression, hence many missed the run up.

Anyway just an anobservation of buying into weakness in general . 30% could easy go 60%, records are there for breaking. Investors starting to realise that its not worth selling into headlines anymore

[flying]

i haven't heard too much of Biden. but after i heard from him regarding jobs i will refer to him in future as "The Right Honourable Vice President of the Greatest Nation on Earth™"... Sarah Joe Palin Biden.

Actually that was about the most anyone has ever heard from him.....back during the campaigns when he debated Sarah.

flying dont worry about jobs..........plenty of those in the government sector

But what about revenue generated ?

Yeah govt jobs is about it isn't it Midas?

Between health care bill jobs... Census taking temp jobs....Even Govt Motors aka: GM jobs....

& last but not least the new large scale employers ......The Military Industrial Complex along with all their sub contractors.... Well at least with that last one they can be like pirates & pillage elsewhere?

Does make one wonder doesn't it? All these jobs are paid for with.......taxes?

Hmmm perpetual motion has been discovered

Perhaps more jobs if they pass that cap & trade carbon tax nonsense too....?

PS: almost forgot the IRS has been hiring mak mak I hear

[Gambles]

Market is about sentiment. I cant see the next 'Sub prime' happening anytime soon, thats been done already

" we got some unlucky breaks on the way down and will get some lucky breaks on the way up" (he forecasts large job growth )

Joe Bidden yesterday re the markets. Simple but very true

IMO if this recovery is real, its quite possible by ignoring the noise we may hit a new historical high.

so opprtunity set is what 20-30% upside versus 90% downside??

You'd better be sure about the upside probability'

Looks like nickels in front of dozers to me......

"Looks like nickels in front of dozers to me"

It was that all the way up. remember at around 6500 people were reading headlines about the great deppression, hence many missed the run up.

Anyway just an anobservation of buying into weakness in general . 30% could easy go 60%, records are there for breaking. Investors starting to realise that its not worth selling into headlines anymore

if the run is all the way to 18,000 then I think we'd need to see discernibly different fundamentals at some point....

[Gambles]

i haven't heard too much of Biden. but after i heard from him regarding jobs i will refer to him in future as "The Right Honourable Vice President of the Greatest Nation on Earth™"... Sarah Joe Palin Biden.

That's totally unfair - there are few people stupid enough to deserve comparison to the Alaskan half-wit

[Naam]

i haven't heard too much of Biden. but after i heard from him regarding jobs i will refer to him in future as "The Right Honourable Vice President of the Greatest Nation on Earth™"... Sarah Joe Palin Biden.

That's totally unfair - there are few people stupid enough to deserve comparison to the Alaskan half-wit

you made me think Gambles and i agree. but assuming i'd find that alaskan half-wit stark 'nekkid' in my bedroom (while my wife is visiting her relatives in a far away foreign country)... i wouldn't kick her out immediately

[Gambles]

i haven't heard too much of Biden. but after i heard from him regarding jobs i will refer to him in future as "The Right Honourable Vice President of the Greatest Nation on Earth™"... Sarah Joe Palin Biden.

That's totally unfair - there are few people stupid enough to deserve comparison to the Alaskan half-wit

you made me think Gambles and i agree. but assuming i'd find that alaskan half-wit stark 'nekkid' in my bedroom (while my wife is visiting her relatives in a far away foreign country)... i wouldn't kick her out immediately

For reasons that I can't fully explain, there's now an image of the really dumb hooker in 'Man with two brains' who sings 'Duke of Earl' all the time.......

[zorro1]

i haven't heard too much of Biden. but after i heard from him regarding jobs i will refer to him in future as "The Right Honourable Vice President of the Greatest Nation on Earth™"... Sarah Joe Palin Biden.

That's totally unfair - there are few people stupid enough to deserve comparison to the Alaskan half-wit

you made me think Gambles and i agree. but assuming i'd find that alaskan half-wit stark 'nekkid' in my bedroom (while my wife is visiting her relatives in a far away foreign country)... i wouldn't kick her out immediately

. <deleted> !!

[chantorn]

i haven't heard too much of Biden. but after i heard from him regarding jobs i will refer to him in future as "The Right Honourable Vice President of the Greatest Nation on Earth™"... Sarah Joe Palin Biden.

That's totally unfair - there are few people stupid enough to deserve comparison to the Alaskan half-wit

you made me think Gambles and i agree. but assuming i'd find that alaskan half-wit stark 'nekkid' in my bedroom (while my wife is visiting her relatives in a far away foreign country)... i wouldn't kick her out immediately

. <deleted> !!

You boys are so naughty. Photo-shop on poor Palin.

[zorro1]

Hmmm so does anyone have a real pic of Sarah ? only other one I have is her in a bikini & shotgun stalking a moose. Looks real to me, but so does the recovery ( just to keep it on topic )

[Naam]

<deleted>

? ?

[AlexLah]

Ha ha ha!

Kwookle it Naam, make sure the wife is not around.....

[midas]

if the run is all the way to 18,000 then I think we'd need to see discernibly different fundamentals at some point....

but HFT computers dont care about " fundamentals " ?

" As the market keeps going up day in and day out, regardless of the deteriorating economic conditions, it is just these HFT’s that determine the overall market direction, usually without fundamental or technical reason. And based on a few lines of code, retail investors get suckered into a rising market that has nothing to do with green shoots or some Chinese firms buying a few hundred extra Intel servers: HFTs are merely perpetuating the same ponzi market mythology last seen in the Madoff case, but on a massively larger scale.”

HFT rigging helps explain how Goldman Sachs earned at least $100 million per day from its trading division, day after day, on 116 out of 194 trading days through the end of September 2009. It’s like taking candy from a baby, when you can see the other players’ cards. “

http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/computer...ont_running.php

[zorro1]

<deleted>

? ?

Get with it Naam , ask the mrs.... wait NO!

Edited April 26, 2010 by zorro1

[Naam]

hmmm... more evidence that Thaivisa educates

[badge]

if the run is all the way to 18,000 then I think we'd need to see discernibly different fundamentals at some point....

but HFT computers dont care about " fundamentals " ?

" As the market keeps going up day in and day out, regardless of the deteriorating economic conditions, it is just these HFT's that determine the overall market direction, usually without fundamental or technical reason. And based on a few lines of code, retail investors get suckered into a rising market that has nothing to do with green shoots or some Chinese firms buying a few hundred extra Intel servers: HFTs are merely perpetuating the same ponzi market mythology last seen in the Madoff case, but on a massively larger scale."

HFT rigging helps explain how Goldman Sachs earned at least $100 million per day from its trading division, day after day, on 116 out of 194 trading days through the end of September 2009. It's like taking candy from a baby, when you can see the other players' cards. "

http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/computer...ont_running.php

HFT has little impact on longer term market trends, but for arguments sake lets say it exacerbates them. This would surely lead the astute trader to exploit this mispricing Midas?

Long Live HFT

[midas]

if the run is all the way to 18,000 then I think we'd need to see discernibly different fundamentals at some point....

but HFT computers dont care about " fundamentals " ?

" As the market keeps going up day in and day out, regardless of the deteriorating economic conditions, it is just these HFT's that determine the overall market direction, usually without fundamental or technical reason. And based on a few lines of code, retail investors get suckered into a rising market that has nothing to do with green shoots or some Chinese firms buying a few hundred extra Intel servers: HFTs are merely perpetuating the same ponzi market mythology last seen in the Madoff case, but on a massively larger scale."

HFT rigging helps explain how Goldman Sachs earned at least $100 million per day from its trading division, day after day, on 116 out of 194 trading days through the end of September 2009. It's like taking candy from a baby, when you can see the other players' cards. "

http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/computer...ont_running.php

HFT has little impact on longer term market trends, but for arguments sake lets say it exacerbates them. This would surely lead the astute trader to exploit this mispricing Midas?

Long Live HFT

Each to their own badge On balance i dont see how an individual investor can gain from this manipulation.

I can only pay regard to the likes of Max Keiser who describes it as " “rigged market capitalism” and Max should know because he

actually invented one of the most widely used programs for doing the rigging

Unless you have access to the same computers as the likes of GS you have to be operating with a blindfold.

Another critic Karl Denninger says " They have turned the market into a rigged game where institutional orders

(that’s you, Mr. and Mrs. Joe Public, when you buy or sell mutual funds!) are routinely screwed for the benefit of a few major international banks.”

I doubt if being astute is quite enough to combat the sharks like GS who seem proud to engage in finanical fraud

Anyway good luck

Edited April 27, 2010 by midas

[Parvis]

Any form of manipulation leaves a trace - it is just a question of how hard you look to be able to see it. Therefore - the individual "small" investor has the edge in theory - but normally the only edge he has is in ignorance.

[Gambles]

Just in case anyone missed my piece in The Nation today - all ThaiVisa readers are of course welcome to come and listen to the great man (if spaces are available) - please PM me to confirm.

Alternatively he'll be on 'Money Channel' later in the week.

Cheers,

Paul

ONE OF the biggest problems that seems to infuriate many investors is the inability of brokers and analysts to accurately predict the markets.

The use of regressive analysis, Fibonacci sequences and historical data can help paint a clear picture of why what just happened has happened,

but it consistently fails to offer credible and accurate insight into the risks and returns of future investments.

The ability to accurately predict future events is one of the defining characteristics of science. The fact that market analysts fail to do this suggests

that either their model simply doesn’t work, or that despite all of the convoluted data the profession is really more of an art and that at the end of the

day too many brokers and advisors still act on gut instinct – a nice luxury when you’re playing with someone else’s hard earned cash.

As a result too much time and effort seems to be spent on the reassessment in hindsight of major events – the collapse of the sub-prime market, the

fall of Lehman Brothers, etc – to explain how they all really saw it coming but for some inexplicable reason forgot to act to prevent losses.

This is little more than a financial parlour trick, a revisionist sleight of hand that hopes to keep investors parting with their cash, but I’d always be

less interested in knowing why investments lost out in the past than how that relates to the present and the future and what should be done

next in terms of sound advice.

A decade ago research by McKinsey & Co, a global business consultancy, found that analysts “were typically overoptimistic, slow to revise their

forecasts to reflect new economic conditions, and prone to making increasingly inaccurate forecasts when economic growth declined”.

The catastrophic events of the recent financial crisis have done little, if anything, to change this outlook that the sector is overly bullish, as a

report published earlier this month by McKinsey Quarterly reveals.

“Alas, a recently completed update of our work only reinforces this view – despite a series of rules and regulations, dating to the last decade, that

were intended to improve the quality of the analysts’ long-term earnings forecasts, restore investor confidence in them, and prevent conflicts of interest.”

So just whose advice should you listen too when making an investment? Start by picking someone with a proven track record of making solid investment

calls, especially those that have bucked bullish consensus and either generated profits or protected capital integrity as a result.

Such people may be thin on the ground, but they do exist. Scott Campbell – an S&P award winning fund manager and CEO of the Guernsey-based

international fund management company MitonOptimal – and his long-term business affiliate Martin Gray have repeatedly hit the nail on the

head with predictions of major market events.

What makes Scott and Martin especially interesting for locally based investors is their expert knowledge of how to evaluate the region’s markets and

currencies against the bigger picture of global portfolio allocation.

In fact, in recent years investors have been shocked on numerous occasions during the pair’s trips to Bangkok by their contrarian calls – which have

even more shockingly turned out to be spot on.

The price of oil is just one example.

With oil in the doldrums, in January 2007, Scott Campbell told the Bangkok Post “oil will hit more than $80 a barrel”. By mid 2008 when oil had reached

$130 per barrel and everyone was rushing into black gold enthused by Goldman Sachs’ view that $200 was in sight, Scott was now heading the other

way talking of “air pockets” – a phase when prices drop. Within weeks the price had started to drop, ultimately falling below $40 per barrel.

In February last year Scott was back here again (while in London Martin was receiving the accolade from the Sunday Telegraph of second place in their

listing of the top 12 fund managers of the decade) and he told The Nation, that although the situation seemed as difficult as it was in the 1930s, and that

the name of the game had changed to focus on return of capital – not return on capital – he remained upbeat on Asia, correctly predicting, months ahead

of most observers, that the continent’s economies would lead the world recovery.

In terms of the money markets, Scott has a similarly pre-eminent record. In 2007 he called a weakening of the US dollar, in June 2008 he called a dollar

bounce when consensus was that the greenback had become a banana currency, and in February last year he again correctly called a weakening of the

dollar, before seeing a turning tide again late last year.

He has also pioneered the only global investment portfolio hedged into baht and Singapore dollars as well as the major currencies.

While no-one has the ability to be 100 per cent right all the time, Scott, Martin and their teams have translated their superior analysis into returns that

have consistently outperformed the market. Analysis shows that the times when MitonOptimal has made thinner returns than the consensus are

typically the prelude to a crash. Rather than profiting from the death rattle of the bull market only to lose all the gains in the blink of an eye, Scott has

tended to focus on protecting client assets by moving the smart money to safer havens.

Scott, Martin and their teams have maintained a strategic alliance with MBMG for the past decade and they manage the extremely successful multi-asset

Iridium and Osmium portfolios, into which many MBMG clients invest offshore.

Scott is back in Thailand this week, giving investor briefings in Pattaya today and speaking at breakfast, lunch and evening events tomorrow.

Given the current calamitous political and economic environment it will be fascinating to hear what surprising forecasts Scott will make.

Edited April 27, 2010 by Gambles

[churchill]

"Given the current calamitous political and economic environment it will be fascinating to hear what surprising forecasts Scott will make. "

Whatever forecasts he makes I am sure he will agree that one needs to be nimble on one's feet , as you have said !

[Naam]

Scott is back in Thailand this week, giving investor briefings in Pattaya today and speaking at breakfast, lunch and evening events tomorrow.

Given the current calamitous political and economic environment it will be fascinating to hear what surprising forecasts Scott will make.

"fascinating and surprising forecasts"? don't you have it one size smaller Gambles?

[zorro1]

Anybody watch the comedy on CNN last night? Goldman sachs traders, talk about sharks ! Senators came in guns blazing totally unprepared for the wall of confusion confronting them. Priceless entertainment

[Parvis]

Yes - interesting - it was all about ethics or the lack of it. However this is unlikely to be changed - unless we can change human nature.

[midas]

" As a result too much time and effort seems to be spent on the reassessment in hindsight of major events - the collapse of the sub-prime market, the fall of Lehman Brothers, etc – to explain how they all really saw it coming but for some inexplicable reason forgot to act to prevent losses "

I would like to ask him why did the market react suddenly last night on the news of Greece when we have seen it coming for months ?

PLUS why does one country like Greece create that panic last night when 41 of the 50 US states are in the same position ? Why is no one panicking about that ?

" While Greece dominates the headlines, California’s state debt is actually rated as more risky than Greek debt by at least two rating agencies."

Edited April 28, 2010 by midas

[Parvis]

If you still believe in "cause and effect" in the Stockmarket - I also believe you still must believe in "fairies".

[midas]

If you still believe in "cause and effect" in the Stockmarket - I also believe you still must believe in "fairies".

it doesnt mean that will apply for ever ?

countries including US and japan are racking up debts but with no imaginable way for them

to pay these off or indeed for some of them to even pay their way going foward.

[Parvis]

Correct - but to assume that yesterdays selloff was caused by Greece's or anyones problems shows "naive reasoning". If you checked one of my posts late last week - I warned about a sell-off early this week. So therefore how would I know about this weeks news?

This sell-off is over for the moment - but shall be continued in a few days on a much more significant level. Again, how would I know?

I will again post the beginning of the sell-off a day or so in advance.

[flying]

I would like to ask him why did the market react suddenly last night on the news of Greece when we have seen it coming for months ?

PLUS why does one country like Greece create that panic last night when 41 of the 50 US states are in the same position ? Why is no one panicking about that ?

" While Greece dominates the headlines, California’s state debt is actually rated as more risky than Greek debt by at least two rating agencies."

It has actually started leaking again that it is more than Greece. ( Portugal & Spain downgrade )

Do agree though that the States are in reality a bigger risk to the USD than the PIIGS are to the Euro...Well perhaps should say its all bad for fiats

Edited April 28, 2010 by flying