The Stock Market

[midas]

as i type on cnbc

[/color][/size]

THAT EXPLAINS EVERYTHING !!!!!

YOU AND JIM CRAMER WOULD MAKE A GREAT TEAM !

[teletiger]

More good news.

"33 TARP recipients missed a scheduled dividend payment to taxpayers last month, according to the Treasury Department, including 18 banks that missed a payment for the first time. It’s a powerful indicator that the US banking system for the first time. And it throws cold water on talk that taxpayers are making money on the bailout."

Regards.

[Abrak]

men in black? everyone I know is buying while its still low. Analysts like faber have a big influence and only pop up at critical moments on the dow, short for 2 days probably with millions who knows and then short cover whilst the suckers load up the shorts looking for a 4 week plunge. Its so obviouse and the smell of burning shorts is soooooo sweet

" men in black? " Those were your own words in Post #608 ?

But honestly how do you sleep at night taking these risks ...................................

" Bernanke's gambit is that the devaluation he is engineering will remain controlled. Unfortunately he has managed to produce yet another asset bubble, this time in stocks which (for the S&P) are trading at an outrageous 122 times earnings on the last quarter's (2Q 2009) earnings.

This sort of parabolic pricing move (from the bottom in March of this year), of course, is unlikely to hold up. Consider that while P/Es have reached 60 during bear market "rollovers" in the past, they have never seen valuations like this in the history of the US market. Never mind Treasuries, with the IRX (13 week T-bill) pricing at a vast six (yes, six) basis points of yield as of the close today.

These levels are dramatically and ridiculously unsustainable. The only reason to loan the government money for 13 weeks for a near-literal zero cost (six basis point is a literally six cents per $100 annualized) is because you either believe massive and outrageous deflation is about to strike or you fear that a near-literal end of the world in other financial assets is shortly upon us. Yet this general level of yield on the IRX has persisted since late last year, with the "recent high" reaching a vast 33 basis points in January. "

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/si...,0,0,0,0,0.html

First of all Midas dont get too carried away.

If you solely wish to value stocks on a P/E of one years earnings then you are right that they are more expensive then at any time over the last 100 years. But stocks in general look expensive at the bottom of a cycle because they have no E. Secondly this E is massively bias by 4Q 2008 which was I think about -23 due to financials. Running quarterly E is about 8 or 32 for the year or placing the S&P 500 on about 33x. Taking a 10 year moving average with an E at 54 then the S&P is on 21x which is about 45% above its long term average. of 15.5x. I will admit it should currently be below because the 10 year MVA is moving down. However you can find several occasions including 2000 that stocks have been more expensive.

More importantly, you have to consider what you are comparing it to. We have cash with ZIRP, a massive fiscal deficit, A Fed Chairman apparently committed to devaluation and some quasi QE going on. So without a doubt to me cash looks more expensive than at anytime during the last 100 years. You talk about buying bonds in the belief of deflation while there is an equal risk of highly negative interest rates.

So PMs -you know shiny stuff that you hide under the bed that is inherently non-productive and has no use - are going up because total crap looks cheap verses everything else.

[zorro1]

men in black? everyone I know is buying while its still low. Analysts like faber have a big influence and only pop up at critical moments on the dow, short for 2 days probably with millions who knows and then short cover whilst the suckers load up the shorts looking for a 4 week plunge. Its so obviouse and the smell of burning shorts is soooooo sweet

Why keep dreaming up Fabers analysis when you dont even listen to him ( your own words). To basically sum him up it is that he basically bullish on all assets verses a devalued cash.

Recently 02/10

'In general I think dollar-related assets are not terribly expensive.

Dollar-related assets are properties and equities in the US and in countries

which peg their currencies to the US dollar.'

But...

'My principal concern remains that asset markets are quite stretched.'

So he is hedging his bets. Of course he is still very bullish on Thailand and gold but he always is.

And if you believe he move markets I rank that as a conspiracy theory in line with the 'market push it up team' thing.

(BTW he seems to have blocked access to his website so I cant point you to his stuff.)

No it just appears that way, anyone can sell after an 8-12 day winning streak and call a reversal and most likely get it right except we dont have millions to tell he does. every time were overbought he crops up with bearish predictions. he doesnt move markets he just follows them. having said that the problem with selling is miss timing the swing , buying back due to emotion and eventually you get squeezed out. Loong summed it up beutifully lasy week in a brilliant post.

If only I had held on to just 20% of some of my stock I would have several 5 baggers and one 10 bagger instead of a bunch of 10% profits. I have a few now not for sale although it hurts to see a large profit sit there, its almost a relief to sell but got to have nerves of steel and my shattered nerves are being soothed going long , just hope my timing is right

[flying]

So PMs -you know shiny stuff that you hide under the bed that is inherently non-productive and has no use

Wow I guess 108 countries & their governments have very large beds

Wonder why the central banks all hold so much of this non productive having no usage stuff? Beats me but I guess compared to cooked books & marked to fantasy assets it seems quite honest? Hmmm odd eh?

[zorro1]

Another brilliant night on the Dow on profit taking Fridays. we are going straight up just as we did straight down, IMO many have made the terminal error of overlapping charts form the great depression with the dow chart of the last 7 months and "assuming" history wil repeat, how anyone could compare the 2 has always ammused me considering the global attempt and stimulas to get us back on track. back in the thirties nothing was to big to fail with catastrophic results

Every Action has an equal and opposite reaction/ so why the big surprise?

now if that law of relatively stated

Every action has half a reaction followed by a reversal and then probably the other half will come later, then this world would be a very very different place.

Edited October 10, 2009 by zorro1

[midas]

This is too hillarious for words

I have said all along this rally feels like " the last BIG party "

" The market is only about halfway through what is historically typical of a bear-market recovery—and this

time around, the rebound is likely to be even bigger, said Barton Biggs of Traxis Partners.

Traxis analyzed 14 past bear markets—ranging from gold to US stocks—and found that when markets

dipped more than 40 percent, the average rally off the lows was about 72 percent, he said. "

OK so far..........Zorro will like to read that

BUT one interesting note about Barton is his long term view :

Biggs is also author of the 2008 book Wealth, War and Wisdom. In this book, Biggs has a gloomy outlook for the economic future, and suggests that investors take survivalist measures such as looking into "polar cities" as safe refuges for future survivors of global warming. In the book, Biggs recommends that his readers should “assume the possibility of a breakdown of the civilized infrastructure.”

He goes so far as to recommend planning adaptation strategies now and setting up survival retreats: “Your safe haven must be self-sufficient and capable of growing some kind of food,” Mr. Biggs writes. “It should be well-stocked with seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc. Think Swiss Family Robinson. Even in America and Europe there could be moments of riot and rebellion when law and order temporarily completely breaks down.”

Which is the contrarian view ?

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/10/ba...ay-through.html

[midas]

First of all Midas dont get too carried away.

If you solely wish to value stocks on a P/E of one years earnings then you are right that they are more expensive then at any time over the last 100 years. But stocks in general look expensive at the bottom of a cycle because they have no E. Secondly this E is massively bias by 4Q 2008 which was I think about -23 due to financials. Running quarterly E is about 8 or 32 for the year or placing the S&P 500 on about 33x. Taking a 10 year moving average with an E at 54 then the S&P is on 21x which is about 45% above its long term average. of 15.5x. I will admit it should currently be below because the 10 year MVA is moving down. However you can find several occasions including 2000 that stocks have been more expensive.

More importantly, you have to consider what you are comparing it to. We have cash with ZIRP, a massive fiscal deficit, A Fed Chairman apparently committed to devaluation and some quasi QE going on. So without a doubt to me cash looks more expensive than at anytime during the last 100 years. You talk about buying bonds in the belief of deflation while there is an equal risk of highly negative interest rates.

So PMs -you know shiny stuff that you hide under the bed that is inherently non-productive and has no use - are going up because total crap looks cheap verses everything else.

no i am not getting carried away - just watching

Did you see " Special Report: A “V”-Shaped Recovery " by David Rosenberg which discusses this ?

Special_Report_Valuation_100909.pdf

[zorro1]

Midas dont take this the wrong way but are you an alcoholic? the second half of your post indicates psychosis also

I did some research, these may help and I strongly recommend you at least give them a call. Your condition can be treated with the medication

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[midas]

Midas dont take this the wrong way but are you an alcoholic? the second half of your post indicates psychosis also

Zorro if I am an alcoholic and psychotic .............you are a schizophrenic

because last week you posted " Midas where are you ...........dont give up "

and then when I write something you dont like...........you go off in a huff

[zorro1]

I know I did but if you believe what you are pasting and you must do or that would make you a scitzo also then your nutz nutz nutz cant I disagree with you? thats okay right? You moved down several notches though after reading that, several hundred actually Never dealt with a psychotic poster before but by all means type away

[Abrak]

So PMs -you know shiny stuff that you hide under the bed that is inherently non-productive and has no use

Wow I guess 108 countries & their governments have very large beds

Wonder why the central banks all hold so much of this non productive having no usage stuff? Beats me but I guess compared to cooked books & marked to fantasy assets it seems quite honest? Hmmm odd eh?

Now I would like to propose this argument as the dumbest on this thread for holding gold. Now it is quite possible that there are even dumber arguments (may well be made by me) but I find it hard to think of them.

1) Central banks have a huge legacy of held gold because at one stage the central reserve currency be it sterling or the US dollar was on a gold backed currency ( to the extent I believe that it was practically illegal for a normal human being to actually hold gold).

2) Since we moved fiat central banks have being trying to rid themselves of gold holdings and have entered into agreements to limit the sales so as potentially to avoid losses. Luckily they are so imprudent that despite their measures to dispose of their gold holdings the price of gold has still gone up.

If you wish you take central bank holdings as a sign that it is a good investment you really have to consider why the BOE made about the worst investment in history by selling at the bottom and why most central banks have been selling on the way up. TRUELY if you wish to choose central banks actions with gold as an example of whether it is a good investment or not, it must be through their actions in which it will decline substantially.

And seriously Flying I have often argued with serious hedge fund managers about their ability to add serious value to highly liquid, seriously analyzed material assets. My argument being rational expectations and random walk. Their argument has always been more along the lines that governments and central banks have economic objectives that if there are costs to be borne to achieve them then that is acceptable even if losses accumulated are at the profit of the hedge funds.

P.S. On a different subject, I am a avid reader of David Rosenberg's work, Midas, whether it is popular, correct or not.

Edited October 10, 2009 by Abrak

[flying]

So PMs -you know shiny stuff that you hide under the bed that is inherently non-productive and has no use

Now I would like to propose this argument as the dumbest on this thread for holding gold. Now it is quite possible that there are even dumber arguments (may well be made by me) but I find it hard to think of them.

And seriously Flying I have often argued with serious hedge fund managers about their ability to add serious value to highly liquid, seriously analyzed material assets.

yada,,,yada,,,yada

Well thanks but I really owe it all to you. I mean what do you expect when you make statements as dumb as what you wrote which I replied to?

You sold gold before its biggest run up in history period...get over it you were wrong.

As for serious hedge fund managers Why do you think gold has run up? It is the likes of serious hedge fund mangers that couldn't keep their greed in check along with the bankers et al....

PS: I did not purchase metals based on CB's holdings nor serious<sic> hedge fund managers advice. I mentioned them only as a rely to your suggestion that PM's live under a bed is non productive & has no use....

Edited October 10, 2009 by flying

[Abrak]

So PMs -you know shiny stuff that you hide under the bed that is inherently non-productive and has no use

Now I would like to propose this argument as the dumbest on this thread for holding gold. Now it is quite possible that there are even dumber arguments (may well be made by me) but I find it hard to think of them.

And seriously Flying I have often argued with serious hedge fund managers about their ability to add serious value to highly liquid, seriously analyzed material assets.

yada,,,yada,,,yada

Well thanks but I really owe it all to you. I mean what do you expect when you make statements as dumb as what you wrote which I replied to?

You sold gold before its biggest run up in history period...get over it you were wrong.

As for serious hedge fund managers Why do you think gold has run up? It is the likes of serious hedge fund mangers that couldn't keep their greed in check along with the bankers et al....

Look Flying I still hold PMs in the form of silver.

I actually sold gold to invest in Thai equities which arguably wasnt exactly the wrong choice. To have put it into cash would have been a bad decision. I have certainly made more more money through luck or whatever than in gold. But virtually anything against a depreciating dollar has made money.

My point was simply that it is unwise to follow the actions of central banks if you wish to make money - they are on a completely different agenda.

I mean really I sold gold at about 955 so I have lost 10% but I made 58% in a Thai stock in 2 weeks (and yes I didnt put all my money in that stock so I am not claiming that big of a return.) But gold has hardly had the biggest return in history over the last 2 months, the dollar has been going down and stockmarkets have been going up.

My point was not really whether I was wrong or right but merely whether you could take actions taken by central banks as a good value creation argument. (If you missed this I have no problem because intelligence is not a parameter which is set for posting on the internet.)

P.S. I mean can think of 101 arguments why you should hold gold, but Central Banks hold of a lot of it, aint one of them.

Edited October 10, 2009 by Abrak

[flying]

P.S. I mean can think of 101 arguments why you should hold gold, but Central Banks hold of a lot of it, aint one of them.

PS: I did not purchase metals based on CB's holdings nor serious<sic> hedge fund managers advice. I mentioned them only as a rely to your suggestion that PM's live under a bed is non productive & has no use....

[Naam]

for a 'U.S. Person' who holds, thinks in USD, has expenses in USD and is currency wise not diversified, hedging against USD weakness with precious metals was in hindsight the right thing to do. whether it will be the right thing in future remains to be seen.

[midas]

Danger Signs: DIVIDEND DISTURBANCE

DESPITE THE INCREASING CAPITULATION (or perhaps because of it) among bears to the idea that this market is unstoppable, there are some real danger signals. That's the view, at least, of Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International, a market-timing permabear who said a market low was being formed in February.

Consider the dividend yield -- the annual dividend divided by stock price. The yield for the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen from 4.7% on March 9 to 2.95%, about the same as in September 1929 -- and lower than at all other stock-market peaks of the 20th century, writes Prechter in his most recent report. With the dividend yield so low, "people are too optimistic about making capital gains," Prechter says. "When dividend yields are low, it has always indicated a market top," he adds.

But that isn't all that gives Prechter pause. At the end of July, mutual-fund cash holdings stood at 4.2% of assets, not much higher than the all-time low of 3.5% at the July 2007 stock-market high.

Moreover, sentiment readings have gone bullishly haywire -- a notably contrarian signal. Prechter, who predicted both last year's major decline and the 1987 crash, and who is issuing an updated version of his 2002 Conquer the Crash later this month, notes that the Daily Sentiment Index reported by MBH Commodities recently hit 92% bullish, compared with just 2% at the March low.

Prechter doesn't know what might trigger a market swoon, although he thinks it will be "at least as large" as the 60% drop from October 2007 to March 2009. His prescription? Short-term Treasury bills and gold.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB125512...1348777129.html?

[zorro1]

Danger Signs: DIVIDEND DISTURBANCE

DESPITE THE INCREASING CAPITULATION (or perhaps because of it) among bears to the idea that this market is unstoppable, there are some real danger signals. That's the view, at least, of Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International, a market-timing permabear who said a market low was being formed in February.

Consider the dividend yield -- the annual dividend divided by stock price. The yield for the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen from 4.7% on March 9 to 2.95%, about the same as in September 1929 -- and lower than at all other stock-market peaks of the 20th century, writes Prechter in his most recent report. With the dividend yield so low, "people are too optimistic about making capital gains," Prechter says. "When dividend yields are low, it has always indicated a market top," he adds.

But that isn't all that gives Prechter pause. At the end of July, mutual-fund cash holdings stood at 4.2% of assets, not much higher than the all-time low of 3.5% at the July 2007 stock-market high.

Moreover, sentiment readings have gone bullishly haywire -- a notably contrarian signal. Prechter, who predicted both last year's major decline and the 1987 crash, and who is issuing an updated version of his 2002 Conquer the Crash later this month, notes that the Daily Sentiment Index reported by MBH Commodities recently hit 92% bullish, compared with just 2% at the March low.

Prechter doesn't know what might trigger a market swoon, although he thinks it will be "at least as large" as the 60% drop from October 2007 to March 2009. His prescription? Short-term Treasury bills and gold.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB125512...1348777129.html?

Midas I only hold gold and uranium and one zinc stock thats waiting for FIRB approval and its flying ATM. MII is the stock if you want a leg up. Spot price of Uranium is rising off its lows and Nuclear reactors being built by the hundreds especially in India and China, Most of France is powered by nuclear energy. I see both gold and uranium continuing their momentum even in a moderate pull back. Midas chronic Down ramping in a powerful uptrend is not the way to go. if you want to contribute to a collapse then you have to wait until we break out of the bottom support line on the chart I posted. If that occurs (unlikely) I promise i will join you. I swear I wont sit on my hands and watch my profits dissipate but in the meantime Im bullish 100% untill 1150 on the dow, I dont have anymore spare cash to put in, thats how bullish I am. IMO your burnt because you missed out and want another chance, fair enough

[Abrak]

P.S. I mean can think of 101 arguments why you should hold gold, but Central Banks hold of a lot of it, aint one of them.

PS: I did not purchase metals based on CB's holdings nor serious<sic> hedge fund managers advice. I mentioned them only as a rely to your suggestion that PM's live under a bed is non productive & has no use....

Yeah well sorry for the rude posts. Totally uncalled for. I must have been in a foul mood last night.

[midas]

IMO your burnt because you missed out and want another chance, fair enough

Zorro i reallt dont care about the stock market but i hate the lies and corruption and the feeling of living in Alice in Wonderland ... nothing makes sense any more

" One in six American households currently receive food stamps and according to a report by Deutche Bank 40% of homes will be under water on their mortgage by 2011. The government added $1.7 trillion to the public debt last fiscal year (ending September 30th), taking in $2.1 trillion in taxes and fees. The claim is made that the "budget" was $3.1 trillion; in reality, $3.8 trillion was spent, an "overage" of $700 billion or 22%. (As an aside the CBO claims the "deficit" was significantly smaller but they ignore the off-balance-sheet games; tax receipts and the addition of debt are hard numbers, both published, and expose the chicanery. Performed by a private business this would be a felony violation of securities laws and result in jail time; the Obama government lies like this daily.) "

The stock market wasnt always so dishonest like this.........I remember...........

But who cares at the end of the day it's only monopoly money...........but what really pisses me off more than anything is the same lies and corruption by this

Obama Regime are being told regarding the war in Afghanistan and there its lives that are being lost not monopoly money.........we have really lost the plot

[midas]

here we go surprise surprise NOT

while the bank shares in the DJIA have been skyrocketing up and now we read this ..............

Oct. 10, 2009,

October surprise from bank earnings?

Some experts worry results may be much more negative than investors expect

Thinking the worst is behind the industry, investors began looking to 2010 and 2011 when banks should be a lot healthier, according to Richard Bove, an analyst at Rochdale Securities. Third-quarter results will make that leap of faith harder to maintain, he said.

"Third-quarter earnings for most banks, particularly the regional lenders, will be extraordinarily negative," Bove said.

"None of this bodes well for the third quarter," Bove said. "Once the market is faced with the reality of how bad the earnings are, it will be interesting to see whether investors will be able to hold on to these stocks at these price levels."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-bank-e...-occ-2009-10-09

[flying]

Yeah well sorry for the rude posts. Totally uncalled for. I must have been in a foul mood last night.

No harm No Foul

[zorro1]

IMO your burnt because you missed out and want another chance, fair enough

Zorro i reallt dont care about the stock market but i hate the lies and corruption and the feeling of living in Alice in Wonderland ... nothing makes sense any more

" One in six American households currently receive food stamps and according to a report by Deutche Bank 40% of homes will be under water on their mortgage by 2011. The government added $1.7 trillion to the public debt last fiscal year (ending September 30th), taking in $2.1 trillion in taxes and fees. The claim is made that the "budget" was $3.1 trillion; in reality, $3.8 trillion was spent, an "overage" of $700 billion or 22%. (As an aside the CBO claims the "deficit" was significantly smaller but they ignore the off-balance-sheet games; tax receipts and the addition of debt are hard numbers, both published, and expose the chicanery. Performed by a private business this would be a felony violation of securities laws and result in jail time; the Obama government lies like this daily.) "

The stock market wasnt always so dishonest like this.........I remember...........

But who cares at the end of the day it's only monopoly money...........but what really pisses me off more than anything is the same lies and corruption by this

Obama Regime are being told regarding the war in Afghanistan and there its lives that are being lost not monopoly money.........we have really lost the plot

'Zorro i reallt dont care about the stock market'

Midas your just wasting everyone's time, read the thread title. Go away please, start a new thread If Im interested I will post there. Chow

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[flying]

createInlineScriptElement("var%20LEO_HIGHLIGHTS_DEBUG%20%3D%20true%3B%0Avar%20LEO_HIGHLIGHTS_DEBUG_POS%20%3D%20false......................

+much much more

Ummmm seems my decoder ring is on the fritz again

[Naam]

IMO your burnt because you missed out and want another chance, fair enough

But who cares at the end of the day it's only monopoly money...

my wife tells me that ricefields, gold bars, houses, flats and cars can be bought with that monopoly money. she claims even supermarkets as well as other shops exchange goods for monopoly money and that she recently remodelled one of her flats using nothing but monopoly money. is she bullsh*tting me?

[Naam]

note to myself: Midas is slowly but surely getting my sympathy. i wonder whether his ailments hurt. i hope not!

[flying]

my wife tells me that gold bars, can be bought with that monopoly money.

I know this sounds funny but I think the day will come soon when gold is not for sale.

At least not to us smaller buyers.

But as for now I agree it is a good buy with the monopoly money aka: FED Reserve notes...aka: IOU's

[badge]

Id be impressed if the ASX can get over 4800

In fairness Im not easily impressed 4800 been rejected twice now. Wonder how significant a hurdle it will be?

[cloudhopper]

here we go surprise surprise NOT

while the bank shares in the DJIA have been skyrocketing up and now we read this ..............

Oct. 10, 2009,

October surprise from bank earnings?

Some experts worry results may be much more negative than investors expect

Thinking the worst is behind the industry, investors began looking to 2010 and 2011 when banks should be a lot healthier, according to Richard Bove, an analyst at Rochdale Securities. Third-quarter results will make that leap of faith harder to maintain, he said.

"Third-quarter earnings for most banks, particularly the regional lenders, will be extraordinarily negative," Bove said.

"None of this bodes well for the third quarter," Bove said. "Once the market is faced with the reality of how bad the earnings are, it will be interesting to see whether investors will be able to hold on to these stocks at these price levels."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-bank-e...-occ-2009-10-09

The earnings that banks report will be blessed by the FASB, and therefore complete fiction.

[zorro1]

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+much much more

Ummmm seems my decoder ring is on the fritz again

That wasnt meant for you it was an encrypted message for Naam