The Stock Market

[zorro1]

Seems to be the same old bunch of bears here led by Midas (what a winner ) offereing nothing but gloom , no matter what charts are posted , where the dow is , its the same and has more to do with the majority of men here are losers in all aspects. better to buy the g/f a 100k house than to risk a trade in a rising market

The last chart i posted ,and i seem to be the only one , clearly shows a cross but more chance of an uptrend as hinted. worked out to plan and from here momentum will clearly be on the up.

here is something to digest from fridays bounce. Also let me say i wont be posting on a traders "forum" as mentioned. why? i want the bears to fail miserably ,probably twice for most . losing all your money in the gfc and missing the bounce has got to hurt bad

Wall St jumps on positive jobs report

http://thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=9927

p.s Im in sydney at the moment,cant get a descent hotel room under $200 in the last 2 weeks. recession? Stick with ASX eventually will decouple from the dow but not just yet

[Abrak]

here is something to digest from fridays bounce. Also let me say i wont be posting on a traders "forum" as mentioned. why? i want the bears to fail miserably ,probably twice for most . losing all your money in the gfc and missing the bounce has got to hurt bad

You really ought to go and see a therapist.

(Out of interest do you think the bears would go charging into the market if you joined the thread. I understand that you want Midas to lose a bundle of money but I do think you are a little delusional if you think you joining the thread would make him jump in and make some. I mean it would be interesting - the day he did that I would probably sell every stock I hold.)

[lannarebirth]

I make trades , long and short, that have a duration of 10 minutes to 2 hours generally. Which board should I be posting on and why should anyone care what my trade is?

[Abrak]

I make trades , long and short, that have a duration of 10 minutes to 2 hours generally. Which board should I be posting on and why should anyone care what my trade is?

What surprises me about you Lanna is that you understand a lot about fundamentals/economics and about charts and trading. In my experience knowledge of both is usually a disaster because people cant help confusing the two. It obviously works for you though.

And the answer as to which board, the trading one for trades. I invest 1 month to 5 years so I guess I dont get as big an xmas present from my broker as you (actually I dont get one at all). In most of the stuff I buy it is a miracle if I cover the spread in 10 minutes.

[chuck1106]

I'm not a big fan of stoplosses myself. Even large cap stocks are subject to occasional exceptionally large spreads that can trigger a stoploss!

Different strokes for different folks.

I use stoplosses on every equity position I have and if a particilar stock has moved up very rapidly, i move the stops up daily and keep them tight to protect as much profit as i can. Occasionally one gets triggered that I did not intend, but with commissions so low at $1-$3 each way, I can buy back in with little cost penalty if I decide to. It is cheap insurance to me.

Which Broker you use? What platform they have? What Markets you trade? American, European or Thai Market?

[lannarebirth]

I make trades , long and short, that have a duration of 10 minutes to 2 hours generally. Which board should I be posting on and why should anyone care what my trade is?

What surprises me about you Lanna is that you understand a lot about fundamentals/economics and about charts and trading. In my experience knowledge of both is usually a disaster because people cant help confusing the two. It obviously works for you though.

And the answer as to which board, the trading one for trades. I invest 1 month to 5 years so I guess I dont get as big an xmas present from my broker as you (actually I dont get one at all). In most of the stuff I buy it is a miracle if I cover the spread in 10 minutes.

One of the best and worst things my Dad ever taught me was "never bet on what someone else can do, but only on what you can do yourself". I've pretty much followed that advice, which has served me pretty well.

Having owned a couple of businesses and sold them I know what the market price of a business is. When I look at stock market valuations based on price/sales, price/book,etc., I know they are almost wholly detached from the reality of what real businesses sell for, even when the market is down a lot. People have been conditioned to think to think those valuations are good or bad relative to historic values, but that's all accounting sleight of hand. It's all bullshit.

Corporations these days are vehicles for insiders to accrue massive wealth in cohorts with investment bankers, and to have speculators join in hopefully for some capital gains. LT holders are screwed. Pension funds are screwed, they just can't get out. With that in mind I never buy shares in any one company. I trade indexes and I DO hold for longer terms, both long and short when I feel the market has regressed too far from its mean, but I don't think that's where it is at now. It DID bounce off its 34 week ema and that was expected and ST bullish, so that colors my holding time a little bit.

Getting close to Bull Market territory up here. Currency Crack-up Boom?

Anyhow, if I INVEST in something my criteria is that either my own personal effort/capital is able to affect the outcome or that the investment has to be puchased at a steep discount to intrinsic value (as determined by me) with little carrying expense. That's why I got into Thai real estate several years ago and haven't really spent much time thinking about it since. Bought cheap, costs nothing to own, easy sleeping. Takes care of my THB issues.

Economics-wise I like the puzzle. As you've pointed out lately, there's really only one outcome to all this, but I DO find it fascinating how they keep all the plates spinning for so long and like you I really wonder where the outrage is.

[zorro1]

Recovery Gathers Momentum

By Colin Twiggs

March 8, 2010 00:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. AET)

These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment or trading advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use.

North American and European markets are recovering, with momentum rising and the FTSE 100 signaling a primary advance to 6000. Asian markets are slower to recover, but rising bulk shipping rates are an encouraging sign for resources stocks.

Commodities & Resources Stocks

The Baltic Dry Index is testing resistance at 3300; breakout would signal the end of the correction and a surge in shipments of bulk commodities — especially since new deliveries of Capemax vessels in the last 6 months have increased available tonnage. Reversal below support at 2550 is unlikely, but would test primary support at 2150.

U.S.A

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow broke through resistance at 10450, signaling a test of the January high at 10750. Rising Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) confirms buying pressure. Breakout above 10450 would offer a target of 11500*. Reversal below 9900 is most unlikely, but would signal a primary down-trend.

Edited March 8, 2010 by zorro1

[Naam]

"The Baltic Dry Index is testing resistance at 3300; breakout would signal the end of the correction and a surge in shipments of bulk commodities — especially since new deliveries of Capemax vessels in the last 6 months have increased available tonnage. Reversal below support at 2550 is unlikely, but would test primary support at 2150."

it is beyond my comprehension why some voodoo-practitioner thinks he can use technical analysis or charts to forecast shipping information like a traded commodity

[midas]

North American and European markets are recovering, with momentum rising and the FTSE 100 signaling a primary advance to 6000. Asian markets are slower to recover, but rising bulk shipping rates are an encouraging sign for resources stocks.

Commodities & Resources Stocks

The Baltic Dry Index is testing resistance at 3300; breakout would signal the end of the correction and a surge in shipments of bulk commodities — especially since new deliveries of Capemax vessels in the last 6 months have increased available tonnage. Reversal below support at 2550 is unlikely, but would test primary support at 2150.

Go to the back of the class zorro with your dunce hat on !

Between January 15 and February 26, the Baltic Dry Index (which tracks average shipping prices globally) fell 18%.

http://www.businessinsider.com/are-shippin...-selloff-2010-3

[Naam]

North American and European markets are recovering, with momentum rising and the FTSE 100 signaling a primary advance to 6000. Asian markets are slower to recover, but rising bulk shipping rates are an encouraging sign for resources stocks.

Commodities & Resources Stocks

The Baltic Dry Index is testing resistance at 3300; breakout would signal the end of the correction and a surge in shipments of bulk commodities — especially since new deliveries of Capemax vessels in the last 6 months have increased available tonnage. Reversal below support at 2550 is unlikely, but would test primary support at 2150.

Go to the back of the class zorro with your dunce hat on !

Between January 15 and February 26, the Baltic Dry Index (which tracks average shipping prices globally) fell 18%.

http://www.businessinsider.com/are-shippin...-selloff-2010-3

Zorro was neither referring to january nor to february. his posting is dated march 8th and since that date the index went up to 3506

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND

[Abrak]

To be honest I cant quite believe that people are really discussing the relevance of the BDI to the stockmarket on the internet - it is afterall, at least to the extent that people believe it is relevant a fairly complicated subject.

BTW you know Zorro's chart with its technical line drawings bug me because I believe a straight line on a chart should at least have to 2 cojoining points. Afterall you can draw any line from one. Even two has no particular meaning until after the second event - so as an indicator that it actually predicted the second the event it is useless. But then again I know it works for some people and the fact that I dont appreciate 1.618 is my problem.

[zorro1]

North American and European markets are recovering, with momentum rising and the FTSE 100 signaling a primary advance to 6000. Asian markets are slower to recover, but rising bulk shipping rates are an encouraging sign for resources stocks.

Commodities & Resources Stocks

The Baltic Dry Index is testing resistance at 3300; breakout would signal the end of the correction and a surge in shipments of bulk commodities — especially since new deliveries of Capemax vessels in the last 6 months have increased available tonnage. Reversal below support at 2550 is unlikely, but would test primary support at 2150.

Go to the back of the class zorro with your dunce hat on !

Between January 15 and February 26, the Baltic Dry Index (which tracks average shipping prices globally) fell 18%.

http://www.businessinsider.com/are-shippin...-selloff-2010-3

Just popped in to read this Rice boy you cant read a chart but surely you know march comes after Jan & feb right?

Whos the dunce?

Sign up for a course or Move on bud, Im just trying to help you. Dates are the first thing you look at dill

[YankeeVet]

I've been reading through this thread and just though I'd say hello to my fellow investors. I've been a full time securities trader for about 3 years now so I'm still a novice in the investing world. Mostly stocks, ETF's and bonds. Mostly a technical swing trader now although I used to be a pure fundamental trader as quantitative analysis is what I learned in school.

I trade through a US brokerage account but prefer to invest in overseas markets. However, lately I've noticed that the US is one of the few markets in a confirmed uptrend and breaking to new annual highs. A lot of sideways action from brazil, china, europe, and asia over the past 6 months which is concerning since I expect to see these markets leading ( as they have recently) and the fundamentals for growth are better. However, it is what it is.

Is the US in a bull market? Well that appears to be the case now. This has gone on far too long to be a bear market rally. We will have pull backs for sure as we just saw. I use data from Investor's Business Daily, Vector Vest, and stocktiming.com as well as the 50 dma on the indexes for my decisions to move in and out of the market or go long/short. I did sell out of half my long positions yesterday to take profits as we are reaching extreme levels of overbought in the US indexes. Yes, we can go higher but risk is too high for me at today's levels. Waiting for a pullback to buy weakness. There are a lot of ways to make money in the market, so to each their own. Although I have no idea how anyone can daytrade in Thailand, at least Chiang Mai, with slow unreliable internet. I spent most of last night in the lobby of our condo using the slow wifi since my AIS 3G was kaput.

Good luck to everyone.

Full disclosure: I currently own long positions in AMZN, PCLN, DBRN, and GLD. Shorting IVV as a hedge.

[lannarebirth]

Something like that. Maybe month end.

[ExpatJ]

To be honest I cant quite believe that people are really discussing the relevance of the BDI to the stockmarket on the internet - it is afterall, at least to the extent that people believe it is relevant a fairly complicated subject.

BTW you know Zorro's chart with its technical line drawings bug me because I believe a straight line on a chart should at least have to 2 cojoining points. Afterall you can draw any line from one. Even two has no particular meaning until after the second event - so as an indicator that it actually predicted the second the event it is useless. But then again I know it works for some people and the fact that I dont appreciate 1.618 is my problem.

I bought TTA shipping stock in thailand recently precisely because the Baltic dry index had just begun to increase again - i sold last week at a 5% profit- not bad these days.

[badge]

Something like that. Maybe month end.

This is an interesting trendline with roots set back quite a long time.

[lannarebirth]

Something like that. Maybe month end.

This is an interesting trendline with roots set back quite a long time.

Well whaddaya know. My data falls about 40 years short of coming up with that chart. Anyhow, it's hard to imagine those folks that got trapdoored in Sept '08 are gonna get made whole on the first try:

[zorro1]

locked in some profits. looking a bit toppy

[Abrak]

I bought TTA shipping stock in thailand recently precisely because the Baltic dry index had just begun to increase again - i sold last week at a 5% profit- not bad these days.

Have you thought about taking up tennis or golf?

[zorro1]

Well the second rally has eclipsed the first, no wonder its so quite in here. Where did the doom brigade go led by the general Midas? Just a reminder Midas you vowed to call me Mr market if the second rally occured, still waiting but that would take character which you dont seem to have.... good luck to those who held on. Where to for now? 11,500 according to chartists before a possible largish pull back. Any thoughts anyone?

[Naam]

Well the second rally has eclipsed the first, no wonder its so quite in here. Where did the doom brigade go led by the general Midas?

the doom brigade has been disbandened. only a few generals without soldiers hope and wait for the "endsieg".

[Abrak]

Here is quite a good piece on how valuations and returns stack up historically.

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john...s-in-store.aspx

First 5 paras are waffle.

[midas]

Well the second rally has eclipsed the first, no wonder its so quite in here. Where did the doom brigade go led by the general Midas? Just a reminder Midas you vowed to call me Mr market if the second rally occured, still waiting but that would take character which you dont seem to have.... good luck to those who held on. Where to for now? 11,500 according to chartists before a possible largish pull back. Any thoughts anyone?

But what happens whern the money runs out ?

Consumers Draw Down Savings For Personal Consumption

February results showed that flat income growth caused consumers to tap into their savings to finance purchases of goods and services, which were up only 0.3% MoM. This means that personal savings decreased. These are negative indicators for the economy.

http://dailycapitalist.com/

[zorro1]

just randomly selecting posts from day one of this thread targeting the losers, no offence but you guys are probably nice people..poor but nice, salt of the earth farmer types

heres one from the first page I beleive his name is Loong? he vanished

Although I tend to agree with "The trend is your friend" I would not advise anyone to jump on the bullmarket bandwagon at the moment. If you are already in and riding the profits all well and good, but I find it too difficult to call at the moment.

The German Dax in particular has over-reacted to every glimmer of good news from the US.

A fall of at least 10% is on the cards, it just needs a run of not so good news to instigate it.

In my opinion the Ftse and Dax are running out of steam, I'm getting no indication re the Dow at all.

Best just to watch for now I think. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to see sharp declines in the markets this week coupled with a strengthening US$ vs GBP and Euro.

I'm not a big fan of stoplosses myself. Even large cap stocks are subject to occasional exceptionally large spreads that can trigger a stoploss!

[teletiger]

What a great day, so far. SPOO up to 1177. mortgage rates rising, gold up, oil up. Frenzied buying going on.

Were I a betting man I might just dip in a toe. How do you short the NYSE these days? Just a toe mind.

Regards.

[Naam]

just randomly selecting posts from day one of this thread targeting the losers, no offence but you guys are probably nice people..poor but nice, salt of the earth farmer types heres one from the first page I beleive his name is Loong? he vanished

most of the prophets take a break and go into hiding when their forecasts are wrong. but you can count on their resurfacing, even after a year or two, when some events seem to prove them right even though the circumstances have completely changed and their prophecies were on the wrong footing. then you will hear their "I TOLD YOU SO!"

[loong]

just randomly selecting posts from day one of this thread targeting the losers, no offence but you guys are probably nice people..poor but nice, salt of the earth farmer types

heres one from the first page I beleive his name is Loong? he vanished

Although I tend to agree with "The trend is your friend" I would not advise anyone to jump on the bullmarket bandwagon at the moment. If you are already in and riding the profits all well and good, but I find it too difficult to call at the moment.

The German Dax in particular has over-reacted to every glimmer of good news from the US.

A fall of at least 10% is on the cards, it just needs a run of not so good news to instigate it.

In my opinion the Ftse and Dax are running out of steam, I'm getting no indication re the Dow at all.

Best just to watch for now I think. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to see sharp declines in the markets this week coupled with a strengthening US$ vs GBP and Euro.

I'm not a big fan of stoplosses myself. Even large cap stocks are subject to occasional exceptionally large spreads that can trigger a stoploss!

I haven't vanished. I have done very little in the way of trading the stockmarkets for the last year. I've been concentrating on learning about and adapting to trading Forex.

From reading my post that you have quoted, why do you call me a loser?

I wrote "Best just to watch for now I think.". The market conditions didn't suit my style of trading so I decided not to trade.

If I refrained from trading, how could I be a loser?

It is those who feel that they HAVE to trade that end up the losers in the long term. Those of us who are comfortable with only trading when the market conditions suit us will continue to make steady profits.

There are some traders who "Have to be right" and you, Zorro, show signs of being one of them. This type often refuse to accept that they made a wrong decision when the market moves against them and don't cut their losses. A disaster waiting to happen. I know - been there, done that.

During the course of this thread, it seems that you have had to show how brilliant you are. You've actually done nothing of the sort. The Dow had a fall of nearly 900 in January and you claimed to closed your long positions after most of the downward move had happened.

You then said that you were going to take short term positions, trading bounces. Now that the market has moved back up again, you claim to be back in. Again - after the move has happened.

If you want to show how clever you are, why don't you actually post if you are in or out of the market on the same day?

About the stoploss - I don't use stops with shares that I own for the long term, but when trading Forex, CFD's and indices short term, I do.

[zorro1]

QUOTE (zorro1 @ 2010-02-02 14:05:57) p.s. do you think we should send a search party to the Whitsunday Passage to

look for zorro ! I am getting worried.

Zorro is just fine LOL. Great fishing out there! I see the bears are out in full force and midas still yapping away. Well did what I said I would do and sold most once the dow was out of the trading channell. am bounce trading now .funny bhp still above 40 and rio still over 70 bucks.pennies and mid caps starting to slide obviuously.Yes Im bearish grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr but getting ready for the next run up which may start to happen about now. took some small postions short term today but only toe dipping. And midas i didnt sell at the top but then again didnt buy at the bottom either

Yes things went a bit sour while you were fishing

so if there is a " next run up " it will prove you ARE THE MARKET.....you and a few robots

Well here is where I started my entry about when the second bounce happened of course Midas now thinks Im the market

Sorry Loong but your a loser cause you missed out. Im sure your a nice guy but in stockmarket land you lost down talking both rallies. Sure I closed my postions when dow slipped out of the channel and I stated it, from there it was short term swing trades until correction was over. Have posted many charts since supporting the second rally, why would I do that if I wasnt in

[zorro1]

Now where do I start with Midas???? nah to hard dont want to burn him he is actually helping the bulls everytime he opens his mouth

[zorro1]

A

just randomly selecting posts from day one of this thread targeting the losers, no offence but you guys are probably nice people..poor but nice, salt of the earth farmer types heres one from the first page I beleive his name is Loong? he vanished

most of the prophets take a break and go into hiding when their forecasts are wrong. but you can count on their resurfacing, even after a year or two, when some events seem to prove them right even though the circumstances have completely changed and their prophecies were on the wrong footing. then you will hear their "I TOLD YOU SO!"

Agree bears, dont like em something wrong with living a half empty glass life Dont mind bears in a bearish market but the ones here continue to buck the trend..silly boys