The Stock Market

[siamamerican]

Can I ask you something siamamerican ?

For example if i chose not to buy an insurance policy or say a car from a salesperson that I dont TRUST

- is that considered " doom and gloom " ?

I dont want to participate because I no longer trust the so called " markets " and as for your statement " I really doubt your market forecast ability "

I completely agree with you on this. But I think you will find i am not alone

Stocks are not even my business but take David Rosenberg or David Horowitz and it is their business and they are saying the same.

But you go ahead and knock yourself out and bet the farm if you like

Sorry, I'm not understanding your point. You comparing not buying a product you don't trust to continuously forecasting economic Armageddon. You can't say you don't want to participate and then actively participate by posting doom and gloom articles and telling us that we are fools for not seeing it. You mention a few names of professional investors that are saying the same (as you?). How does that prove anything other than a couple professional investors feel differently than the majority of professional investors.

By all means, don't buy stocks in companies you don't trust. Put all your money in a hole if you don't trust banks. I just don't understand how you keep calling for a collapse and fail to see any positives. Reality is we both don't really know what is going to happen to the market in the future. There is a decent chance we might fall back into a recession and, in my opinion, a much better chance the world economies are going to grow robustly the next few years.

I won't be betting the farm because I am not extremely confident this recovery is a sure thing. I do have more in the world equity markets than ever before but I'm not betting the farm on the results.

I know your not alone and throughout history you would always have had ample company. This financial crisis ( not really but we seem to tag everything a crisis these days) so far has created little lasting damage in my opinion. Nothing earth shattering about what we experienced with the bursting of the housing bubble in America. Companies and countries will continue to prosper and both will experience tough times in the future.

[zorro1]

Best put Midas on ignore. I have, anyone who continually calls a crash every post through 2 historical rallies is a Troll , who knows how many other stock forums he loiters in.

[fletchsmile]

I've no idea what the upside is

but I'm sticking to 3500 as a downside DJIA target

on that basis fear trumps greed right now

Gambles are you shorting the dow? This thread is good for a laugh since no one is willing to disclose their position and we know who the bears are , they only post -200. Are you happy to disclose your position/ stock holding? Easy to post your heart away without conviction. very much look forward to your disclosure

cheers

Personally have a small USD long equity holding - well under 5% of my portfolio. Happen to think the equities will generate OK returns this year, and the Dow/S&P will surprise many in 2010. Really don't like the downside potential in short and long term. This is one market for me that is more like gambling, unless you're considering it part of a diversified portfolio. Mid term / long term there'll be better choices elsewhere. Downside I can't see what would take it below 7000, aside from another Lehmans and meltdown elsewhere.

UK offers some similar themes, although I prefer to US. I have a larger long exposure here both in GBP equities and GBP currency. Think the FTSE will do quite well and the FT250 in particular, even though the UK economy is in such bad shape. FT250 is already one of the best performing markets in 2010 up over 10% and it will build on that, and I expect it higher at y/e.

BTW I don't play the indices themselves, but choose them as benchmarks for which fund managers to pick with the alpha to outperfom in that area. Hence they're just starting points.

Personally still like Emerging Markets, despite the gains already made. Have taken some profits from there though to recycle in frontier markets. Think MENA - Middle East/Africa will do better than the BRICs this year (China worst of the 4). eg Fidelity MENA, Franklin Templeton Frontier Markets, although again these are also riding some hefty gains in last year.

Edited April 12, 2010 by fletchsmile

[midas]

This financial crisis ( not really but we seem to tag everything a crisis these days) so far has created little lasting damage in my opinion. Nothing earth shattering about what we experienced with the bursting of the housing bubble in America. Companies and countries will continue to prosper and both will experience tough times in the future.

That i cannot agree with The financial crisis is DEBT DEBT DEBT everywhere

I just find it bizzare to be cheerleading gains in the stockmarket day after day

when so many of these gains can be attributed to stimulus packages that are now beginning to run out

but when the debts in some of the biggest economies around the world are still growing bigger

without any apparent solution as to how they will be paid.

Today i read this :-

" Japanese National Strategy Minister Yoshito Sengoku said the country should have a greater sense of urgency about the nation’s fiscal situation, comparing it to the plight of Greece. “So far some have been crying wolf, but Greece’s situation isn’t entirely unrelated to Japan’s,” Sengoku said at a news conference in Tokyo today. “At the end of the day, Japan’s situation right now is not that good. There hasn’t been a sense of crisis about this, including from ourselves.”

[midas]

Sorry, I'm not understanding your point. You comparing not buying a product you don't trust to continuously forecasting economic Armageddon. You mention a few names of professional investors that are saying the same (as you?). How does that prove anything other than a couple professional investors feel differently than the majority of professional investors.

here is another one - a professional funds manager and he uses the same words as me - the " markets " can't be trusted

I dont know about the size o your portfolio but I am quite sure he is managing more money than what zorro has !

This market can not be trusted, says John Hussman.

http://www.businessinsider.com/hussman-correction-2010-4

[Naam]

Sorry, I'm not understanding your point. You comparing not buying a product you don't trust to continuously forecasting economic Armageddon. You mention a few names of professional investors that are saying the same (as you?). How does that prove anything other than a couple professional investors feel differently than the majority of professional investors.

here is another one - a professional funds manager and he uses the same words as me - the " markets " can't be trusted

I dont know about the size o your portfolio but I am quite sure he is managing more money than what zorro has !

This market can not be trusted, says John Hussman.

No market can be trusted, says Naam... and then Naam added more of his wisdom such as "two plus two equals four", "wives generally don't trust the mia nois of their husbands", "a hungry soi dog left alone with a sausage cannot be trusted", "the sun rarely shines when it's raining cats and dogs", "most of the time it is much warmer in Tamanrasset than in the Arctic", "a grilled duck on a plate is better than a sparrow in a bush", "Madoff wasn't exactly an honest man" and last not least "politicians cannot be trusted!"

[Gambles]

I've no idea what the upside is

but I'm sticking to 3500 as a downside DJIA target

on that basis fear trumps greed right now

Gambles are you shorting the dow? This thread is good for a laugh since no one is willing to disclose their position and we know who the bears are , they only post -200. Are you happy to disclose your position/ stock holding? Easy to post your heart away without conviction. very much look forward to your disclosure

cheers

Personally have a small USD long equity holding - well under 5% of my portfolio. Happen to think the equities will generate OK returns this year, and the Dow/S&P will surprise many in 2010. Really don't like the downside potential in short and long term. This is one market for me that is more like gambling, unless you're considering it part of a diversified portfolio. Mid term / long term there'll be better choices elsewhere. Downside I can't see what would take it below 7000, aside from another Lehmans and meltdown elsewhere.

UK offers some similar themes, although I prefer to US. I have a larger long exposure here both in GBP equities and GBP currency. Think the FTSE will do quite well and the FT250 in particular, even though the UK economy is in such bad shape. FT250 is already one of the best performing markets in 2010 up over 10% and it will build on that, and I expect it higher at y/e.

BTW I don't play the indices themselves, but choose them as benchmarks for which fund managers to pick with the alpha to outperfom in that area. Hence they're just starting points.

Personally still like Emerging Markets, despite the gains already made. Have taken some profits from there though to recycle in frontier markets. Think MENA - Middle East/Africa will do better than the BRICs this year (China worst of the 4). eg Fidelity MENA, Franklin Templeton Frontier Markets, although again these are also riding some hefty gains in last year.

Fletch,

As I'm sure you know, outright shorting is generally difficult because the cost of maintaining shorts is so expensive that timing has to be perfect and I agree that timing now is probably too early. One of our favourite short themes would be the 2 big Aussie property companies and also the ASX Financials plus Aussie Dollar but it's still too early for this. Also shorting UK property will be a valuable theme before too much longer, if not just yet. We keep highlighting mid this year to mid next year as the crucial period so I too wouldn't be shocked to see markets get to the year end at current levels or even a fair bit higher.

So what to do now? I'd favour flexible, nimble approaches - relative value, long/short, managed futures and macro (we're buying Paulson) look better bets right now than long only equity, UK, US or emerging at current vals. Specifically do you know GAA Q, Turnstone's European long/short or NZAM's Global? Orbis Global is more of a traditional stockpicking fund but is really well run. We're also looking at Thames River's Longstone long/short property right now.

That may not seem like much of an answer but really in these markets don't be dogmatic, expect the unexpected, beware bolts from the blue, be nimble, be quick to look for opportunities but at the moment be mindful that the momentum is still upwards even though the basic fundamental problems will come back to haunt.

We recently commissioned a 16 page report that covers the macro issues - PM me if you want a copy.

Cheers,

Paul

[Gambles]

The 75% fall is just something I use for peace of mind so that I never feel I have to sell, and can remove the panic and negative emotion people feel in crashes. Bear in mind also that if the market tanked 75% my faith in the fund managers I use is that they will maintain their alpha, so I wouldn't get hit with the full 75%. Anyone who checks say the SET will see 10 year performance is not great. The alpha of certain fund managers is...

Agreed totally about the alpha....

[zorro1]

For those interested in reality and not relying only the “ greater fool theory “

So, How Are Stock Prices Now That We're Back At DOW 11,000? They're 30% Overvalued

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-pe#ixzz0kodlOMoC

yeah that's great news! somebody keeps pushing my stock up and by 30% Who cares why? not me. Watching the dow chart closely it was a great indicator a few months back. Hey midas I do remember saying see you at 11, 000 , why don't you just buy something and enjoy the ride? Nothing to suggest its not going to 11500 or to 13000 for that matter, can you show me why anyone would be selling now? (please no news paper clips)

Simple zorro !

I don’t NEED to thank youvery much and I am more than happy with what I already have

plus these days who needs the anxiety of having keeping an eye on so many 'events '

Think This Market Is Boring? Here Are 14 Crises That Could Blast The Complacency Out Of The Market

http://www.businessinsider.com/12-crises-market-2010-4

You dont need extra money? sure I can accept that its what makes the rich richer and the poor poorer. Im gonna try to help you Midas, god knows why

Okay obviously since day one you screwed up, why you keep coming back for more whipping? who knows you probably hang out in seedy underground bars with a leather mask ,rubber ball in your mouth and a very red Butt.

Okay buy some MEO, inside word its about jump 50%

Why? well do a little research grass hopper.

Im on record ..

Well Meo just signed the agreement deal done up 25% sold at 46.5....

Thats 2 tips vil and Meo and the only 2 I held outside of Pen for a net profit of 45% Thats a LOT OF PROFIT in a few weeks . Still im the only one posting exactly what I buy my shares for and what I sell them for Now for the next one

Edited April 14, 2010 by zorro1

[zorro1]

Okay last one .

why you should buy PEN

Capitol raising at 4c last week caused a pullback as they all do

yesterday they released an announcement FIRST MAIDEN JORC well before expected

today's broker report recommend upgrade from speculative to a buy and forecast PEN at 9c within 6 months

HARTLYES upgrade PEN spec to buy 9c (currently 4.6)

http://www.peninsulaminerals.com.au/images...-134--kucee.pdf

Edited April 14, 2010 by zorro1

[Naam]

Zorro, even though you might hate me... i will not buy PEN, whether first maiden or not

[lannarebirth]

Okay last one .

why you should buy PEN

Capitol raising at 4c last week caused a pullback as they all do

yesterday they released an announcement FIRST MAIDEN JORC well before expected

today's broker report recommend upgrade from speculative to a buy and forecast PEN at 9c within 6 months

HARTLYES upgrade PEN spec to buy 9c (currently 4.6)

http://www.peninsulaminerals.com.au/images...-134--kucee.pdf

Because of the time difference, trading the US market leaves me absolutely enervated most nights. Consequently, I gave the Australian Futures market a go, even tough its a country with a population somewhere between Florida and Texas. I cut my usual trading size in half and to my great shock and horror I actually MOVED the Index Futures market (it is not "deep"). That's a pretty distressing thing to a trader unless you have the US Treasury backing you up. You'll forgive me I'm sure if I take a pass on a penny stock in that same highly illiquid market. I do wish you the best of luck though.

[zorro1]

Okay last one .

why you should buy PEN

Capitol raising at 4c last week caused a pullback as they all do

yesterday they released an announcement FIRST MAIDEN JORC well before expected

today's broker report recommend upgrade from speculative to a buy and forecast PEN at 9c within 6 months

HARTLYES upgrade PEN spec to buy 9c (currently 4.6)

http://www.peninsulaminerals.com.au/images...-134--kucee.pdf

Because of the time difference, trading the US market leaves me absolutely enervated most nights. Consequently, I gave the Australian Futures market a go, even tough its a country with a population somewhere between Florida and Texas. I cut my usual trading size in half and to my great shock and horror I actually MOVED the Index Futures market (it is not "deep"). That's a pretty distressing thing to a trader unless you have the US Treasury backing you up. You'll forgive me I'm sure if I take a pass on a penny stock in that same highly illiquid market. I do wish you the best of luck though.

I know what you mean, I have aged considerably in the last 12 months. However pen has a 120million dollar line of credit plus just raised $10,000mill plus maiden jorc so now on the map plus broker upgrade. Im holding an obscene amount for good reason thanks for the luck and I know this coy inside out so only gfc2 will see me sell. Guess I wont be selling

[zorro1]

Zorro, even though you might hate me... i will not buy PEN, whether first maiden or not

I believe this wouldn't be zee first maiden you bought right

you will HATE me in 6 months

[Gambles]

Zorro, even though you might hate me... i will not buy PEN, whether first maiden or not

and so say all of us!

[Naam]

Zorro, even though you might hate me... i will not buy PEN, whether first maiden or not

I believe this wouldn't be zee first maiden you bought right

i refuse to testiclefy in order to avoid self-incrimination and criminal proceedings

[zorro1]

Zorro, even though you might hate me... i will not buy PEN, whether first maiden or not

and so say all of us!

No Guts No Glory!! (my guts hurt) i just want that 1 in a million that jumps 500% and then gets taken over the next day

Then I can go sit by a mountain stream in China and forget all this madness

[zorro1]

ROFL news just released. Thailand goes nuclear

Maybe they will be supplied by PEN

Preparation for nuclear power plant stepped up

By The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The Energy Regulatory Commission and the Office of Atoms for Peace recently discussed the scope of their regulatory powers over nuclear energy plants as Thailand makes plans for such plants for the first time ever.

[badge]

Fletch,

As I'm sure you know, outright shorting is generally difficult because the cost of maintaining shorts is so expensive that timing has to be perfect and I agree that timing now is probably too early. One of our favourite short themes would be the 2 big Aussie property companies and also the ASX Financials plus Aussie Dollar but it's still too early for this. Also shorting UK property will be a valuable theme before too much longer, if not just yet. We keep highlighting mid this year to mid next year as the crucial period so I too wouldn't be shocked to see markets get to the year end at current levels or even a fair bit higher.

So what to do now? I'd favour flexible, nimble approaches - relative value, long/short, managed futures and macro (we're buying Paulson) look better bets right now than long only equity, UK, US or emerging at current vals. Specifically do you know GAA Q, Turnstone's European long/short or NZAM's Global? Orbis Global is more of a traditional stockpicking fund but is really well run. We're also looking at Thames River's Longstone long/short property right now.

That may not seem like much of an answer but really in these markets don't be dogmatic, expect the unexpected, beware bolts from the blue, be nimble, be quick to look for opportunities but at the moment be mindful that the momentum is still upwards even though the basic fundamental problems will come back to haunt.

We recently commissioned a 16 page report that covers the macro issues - PM me if you want a copy.

Cheers,

Paul

Hi Gambles.

When you state 'we', to whom do you refer? Incidentally I have been short the largest UK Real Estate Inv Trusts for almost 6 months now, they're still c10% down from those highs.

[Gambles]

Zorro, even though you might hate me... i will not buy PEN, whether first maiden or not

and so say all of us!

No Guts No Glory!! (my guts hurt) i just want that 1 in a million that jumps 500% and then gets taken over the next day

Then I can go sit by a mountain stream in China and forget all this madness

that's great, Zorro......but wealth management (which is the business with which I'm ultimately associated) is more about preservation than speculation whereas what you do appears to be diametrically opposite to that - each has their place but they're very different disciplines that appeal to different needs and achieve different outcomes. Good luck with what you do but also be aware that it is what it is - the minute that any of us forget the role and value of what we do then we instantly devalue it.

[Gambles]

Fletch,

As I'm sure you know, outright shorting is generally difficult because the cost of maintaining shorts is so expensive that timing has to be perfect and I agree that timing now is probably too early. One of our favourite short themes would be the 2 big Aussie property companies and also the ASX Financials plus Aussie Dollar but it's still too early for this. Also shorting UK property will be a valuable theme before too much longer, if not just yet. We keep highlighting mid this year to mid next year as the crucial period so I too wouldn't be shocked to see markets get to the year end at current levels or even a fair bit higher.

So what to do now? I'd favour flexible, nimble approaches - relative value, long/short, managed futures and macro (we're buying Paulson) look better bets right now than long only equity, UK, US or emerging at current vals. Specifically do you know GAA Q, Turnstone's European long/short or NZAM's Global? Orbis Global is more of a traditional stockpicking fund but is really well run. We're also looking at Thames River's Longstone long/short property right now.

That may not seem like much of an answer but really in these markets don't be dogmatic, expect the unexpected, beware bolts from the blue, be nimble, be quick to look for opportunities but at the moment be mindful that the momentum is still upwards even though the basic fundamental problems will come back to haunt.

We recently commissioned a 16 page report that covers the macro issues - PM me if you want a copy.

Cheers,

Paul

Hi Gambles.

When you state 'we', to whom do you refer? Incidentally I have been short the largest UK Real Estate Inv Trusts for almost 6 months now, they're still c10% down from those highs.

I think that there's a very interesting time coming up for UK listed real estate (as if the last 2 years hasn't been interesting enough)

This is one of our key themes right now.

I'm probably not allowed to write too much about who I am/we are on TV without breaking all kinds of forum rules about self-promotion???

PM me - anyone who knows me knows that I'm always very, very happy to talk about myself in situations where that doesn't break any rules!!

cheers,

Paul

[siamamerican]

This financial crisis ( not really but we seem to tag everything a crisis these days) so far has created little lasting damage in my opinion. Nothing earth shattering about what we experienced with the bursting of the housing bubble in America. Companies and countries will continue to prosper and both will experience tough times in the future.

That i cannot agree with The financial crisis is DEBT DEBT DEBT everywhere

I just find it bizzare to be cheerleading gains in the stockmarket day after day

when so many of these gains can be attributed to stimulus packages that are now beginning to run out

but when the debts in some of the biggest economies around the world are still growing bigger

without any apparent solution as to how they will be paid.

Today i read this :-

" Japanese National Strategy Minister Yoshito Sengoku said the country should have a greater sense of urgency about the nation’s fiscal situation, comparing it to the plight of Greece. “So far some have been crying wolf, but Greece’s situation isn’t entirely unrelated to Japan’s,” Sengoku said at a news conference in Tokyo today. “At the end of the day, Japan’s situation right now is not that good. There hasn’t been a sense of crisis about this, including from ourselves.”

Midas, I get it - the world has issues. It has always had issues from wars to economic recessions. The difference between you and I is that I see the positives as well as the negatives. This talent that most humans possess allows for rational decisions. You are so vested in a complete collapse of the worlds economies that you are blind to info that contradicts this belief.

How much of the gains can be attributed to the stimulus packages? I'll answer - you nor I don't have a clue. Also, weren't the stimulus packages meant to create growth?

Just curious, do you post only negative articles? Why?

Below are a few positives.

* China’s Economy Surges in First Quarter

* Factories in the United States, Europe and Asia cranked up production last month

* Fed’s Bullard: U.S. jobless rate to start falling

If it makes you more comfortable, the world will face dire times in the future just as it always has.

Edited April 15, 2010 by siamamerican

[midas]

Midas, I get it - the world has issues. It has always had issues from wars to economic recessions. The difference between you and I is that I see the positives as well as the negatives. This talent that most humans possess allows for rational decisions. You are so vested in a complete collapse of the worlds economies that you are blind to info that contradicts this belief.

I can be positive about the developing South East Asian countries including China ( not Japan which is going to have serious problems ) but not about USA ( which you and I disagreed about in the past ) nor can I be positive about Europe.

How much of the gains can be attributed to the stimulus packages? I'll answer - you nor I don't have a clue. Also, weren't the stimulus packages meant to create growth?

that is debatable - have you looked at how some of the stimulus in USA has been used ?

Just curious, do you post only negative articles? Why?

Because I believe these measures are aimed at trying to re- inflate the economy accompanied

by what I view as a false message that we should fear deflation - wheras deflation is not as bad as some in power

want you to believe wheras inflation only serves the interests of a very small number of people in high places.

Do you think it's healthy for homeowners to be allowed to default on mortgages and use the money

from the payments instead to buy 'stuff ' to allow consumer activity to drive up corporate revenue and

hence stock prices ? Banks are losing the income on the mortgages, but they don't have to mark-down

the asset value and they make the money back in trading but if they lose they are ultimately

back-stopped by bailouts. The FED/Treasury fund the bailouts by issuing debt for which there

is an infinite demand at 0 .1%.

Do you really believe this is a sound environment for solid growth and business opportunities ?

Below are a few positives.

* China’s Economy Surges in First Quarter [b]YES that is great ![/b]

* Factories in the United States, Europe and Asia cranked up production last month - Yes that is good

* Fed’s Bullard: U.S. jobless rate to start falling - I dont trust that

If it makes you more comfortable, the world will face dire times in the future just as it always has.

[zorro1]

Zorro, even though you might hate me... i will not buy PEN, whether first maiden or not

and so say all of us!

No Guts No Glory!! (my guts hurt) i just want that 1 in a million that jumps 500% and then gets taken over the next day

Then I can go sit by a mountain stream in China and forget all this madness

that's great, Zorro......but wealth management (which is the business with which I'm ultimately associated) is more about preservation than speculation whereas what you do appears to be diametrically opposite to that - each has their place but they're very different disciplines that appeal to different needs and achieve different outcomes. Good luck with what you do but also be aware that it is what it is - the minute that any of us forget the role and value of what we do then we instantly devalue it.

gambles good luck with your wealth management, its easy to avg 10% / year in a mixture of blue chip and fixed term interest. I know what Im doing, I know which penny stock have been slaughtered and with a combo of T/A ( just check my charts vil and meo) and fundamentals I can scalp 20% in a few weeks. many go on to be 50-100% plus, but greed is a killer. the charts are my own. I offered to chart yours or any ones stock here but no takers. Gambles you haven't contributed much to this thread , oh unless "be careful" is a contribution...

if you want to contribute be specific. What fund? what stock? what currency?

Back your self with a commitment. What should we buy? more importantly WHEN? I already know you will come back with out specifics.

and puleez no "disclaimers"

Edited April 15, 2010 by zorro1

[Gambles]

This financial crisis ( not really but we seem to tag everything a crisis these days) so far has created little lasting damage in my opinion. Nothing earth shattering about what we experienced with the bursting of the housing bubble in America. Companies and countries will continue to prosper and both will experience tough times in the future.

That i cannot agree with The financial crisis is DEBT DEBT DEBT everywhere

I just find it bizzare to be cheerleading gains in the stockmarket day after day

when so many of these gains can be attributed to stimulus packages that are now beginning to run out

but when the debts in some of the biggest economies around the world are still growing bigger

without any apparent solution as to how they will be paid.

Today i read this :-

" Japanese National Strategy Minister Yoshito Sengoku said the country should have a greater sense of urgency about the nation’s fiscal situation, comparing it to the plight of Greece. “So far some have been crying wolf, but Greece’s situation isn’t entirely unrelated to Japan’s,” Sengoku said at a news conference in Tokyo today. “At the end of the day, Japan’s situation right now is not that good. There hasn’t been a sense of crisis about this, including from ourselves.”

Midas, I get it - the world has issues. It has always had issues from wars to economic recessions. The difference between you and I is that I see the positives as well as the negatives. This talent that most humans possess allows for rational decisions. You are so vested in a complete collapse of the worlds economies that you are blind to info that contradicts this belief.

How much of the gains can be attributed to the stimulus packages? I'll answer - you nor I don't have a clue. Also, weren't the stimulus packages meant to create growth?

Just curious, do you post only negative articles? Why?

Below are a few positives.

* China’s Economy Surges in First Quarter

* Factories in the United States, Europe and Asia cranked up production last month

* Fed’s Bullard: U.S. jobless rate to start falling

If it makes you more comfortable, the world will face dire times in the future just as it always has.

Siam, I admire your outlook but not your thinking. This rose-tainted acceptance is what caused this mess in the first place - if the glass is half full enough then we can believe that we can lend money to anyone and that they will be able to repay and what's more if we slice and dice the worst of the worst into CDS that will mean that they can pay and then we can bet that they can through synthetic CDS until we end up with synthetic CDS cubeds...

The world will continue to turn. The US will continue to function as an economy. Has it (and all the other indebted countries) recovered from its/their credit excesses. No it hasn't. And we should thank the liks of Midas for dissenting from the shared madness of pursuing policies that have never worked and probably never could. The one hope that US policy makers have is that they can create inflation and continue to depreciate the USD but their inability to understand inflation and their inability to deal with the 1000 Lb gorilla that is China creates challenges to both of those desperation policies that they just don;t seem to have any answers for.

Each day the picture can be painted pretty pink for a while to come but thank you, Midas, for asking all those difficult long term questions that too many people would prefer not to ask because deep down they'd rather not face the answers.

The stimulus packages have stimulated/protected just 2 sectors - banks/financials and housing. We can see exactly to what extent and we can deduce that its smoke and mirrors and it's probably going to take 20 years from now to actually fix the US banking and property sectors (I pick on the US because it's the biggest and it's now in the worst shape thanks to the policy decisions made in 08/09 although let's be clear all the indebted nations are in ugly shape).

* China has its own challenges and will, quite rightly, resolve those in China's best interests not America's

* US industrial production is not the most meaningful stat

* There are no indications that the U6 unemployment rate is falling meaningfully from its 16-17% range or that the SS rate is falling below 22%. The official rate may have fallen from 10% to 9.7% or whatever made up number it's at following the extra half a million people now added but I long gave up tracking this - fluctuations in a meaningless measure are ultimnately meaningless too.

We need the likes of Midas to ask the questions about the Midas in reverse policies inflicted by indebted governments of whom USG has been the most culpable so far. If you don't like it, Siam, cover your eyes and ears but don't ever devalue the role of Midas & co in asking the questions......the next step is back to looking for reds under every bed and McCarthyism

[Gambles]

gambles good luck with your wealth management, its easy to avg 10% / year in a mixture of blue chip and fixed term interest. I know what Im doing, I know which penny stock have been slaughtered and with a combo of T/A ( just check my charts vil and meo) and fundamentals I can scalp 20% in a few weeks. many go on to be 50-100% plus, but greed is a killer. the charts are my own. I offered to chart yours or any ones stock here but no takers. Gambles you haven't contributed much to this thread , oh unless "be careful" is a contribution...

if you want to contribute be specific. What fund? what stock? what currency?

Back your self with a commitment. What should we buy? more importantly WHEN? I already know you will come back with out specifics.

and puleez no "disclaimers"

Actually, Zorro, it's not that easy to average 10% / year

the average of the best private client managers have achieved 6.2% per year over the last 5 years in their balanced portfolios (PCI Index, Sterling, Balanced to 31.3.10)

Over the last 9 years (to 31.12.09) which is the longest period shown on trustnet Martin Gray's total return of 96% placed him 76% ahead of UK fund managers with the same aims who averaged 20% in total.

but whilever Martin keeps doing what he does, then that's fine by me.

Good lcuk with your speculation - be careful is the best advice that I can give you; other than that I don't think that I have anything useful to add to your enterprise, except don't do this with serious money - only speculate what you can afford to lose.

I'm not sure what soecific holdings info will tell you but I have absolutely nothing to hide - The Osmium Portfolio was until a few weeks ago allocated as follows:

Holding

Cash

37.97%

CF Miton Special Situations

24.91%

MAN AHL

6.68%

GAA Q

6.49%

Moonraker Commodities

6.38%

Moonraker GOP

5.52%

MOG Core Diversified

2.45%

Carmignac Patrimoine

2.43%

CF Miton Strategic

2.03%

CF Ruffer Total Return

1.92%

Turnstone European

1.90%

Berkshire Hathaway

0.75%

CF Ruffer European

0.57%

Total

100.00%

There have been quite a lot of changes during March and April - I can get you an update next week if you'd like.

This information is a specific answer to a particular question and not a recommendation as to the suitability of Osmium or any of Martin Gray or Scott Campbell's portfolios or any of the underlying assets for any particular investor.

Edited April 16, 2010 by Gambles

[midas]

The world will continue to turn. The US will continue to function as an economy. Has it (and all the other indebted countries) recovered from its/their credit excesses. No it hasn't.

The stimulus packages have stimulated/protected just 2 sectors - banks/financials and housing. We can see exactly to what extent and we can deduce that its smoke and mirrors and it's probably going to take 20 years from now to actually fix the US banking and property sectors (I pick on the US because it's the biggest and it's now in the worst shape thanks to the policy decisions made in 08/09 although let's be clear all the indebted nations are in ugly shape).

I would give Siamamerican a firm undertaking to be far more positive if he or anyone can give me a

plausible reason why the real estate market in USA is not going behave substantially the same

( i.e.maybe not exactly the same ) as what has happened in Japan over the last 20 years –

but I haven’t read anything of the sort so far.

And as Americans used their homes as ATM machines, unless home values can be

restored ……as I see it prospects in the land of 70% GDP coming from

consumption will be rather “ muted “ because banks cannot carry deflated real estate on their books forever.

The irony is Bernanke knows full well what is in store and should be lynch mobbed but instead is

“ Person of the Year for 2009 “ .How bizarre is that ?

[zorro1]

gambles good luck with your wealth management, its easy to avg 10% / year in a mixture of blue chip and fixed term interest. I know what Im doing, I know which penny stock have been slaughtered and with a combo of T/A ( just check my charts vil and meo) and fundamentals I can scalp 20% in a few weeks. many go on to be 50-100% plus, but greed is a killer. the charts are my own. I offered to chart yours or any ones stock here but no takers. Gambles you haven't contributed much to this thread , oh unless "be careful" is a contribution...

if you want to contribute be specific. What fund? what stock? what currency?

Back your self with a commitment. What should we buy? more importantly WHEN? I already know you will come back with out specifics.

and puleez no "disclaimers"

Actually, Zorro, it's not that easy to average 10% / year

the average of the best private client managers have achieved 6.2% per year over the last 5 years in their balanced portfolios (PCI Index, Sterling, Balanced to 31.3.10)

Over the last 9 years (to 31.12.09) which is the longest period shown on trustnet Martin Gray's total return of 96% placed him 76% ahead of UK fund managers with the same aims who averaged 20% in total.

but whilever Martin keeps doing what he does, then that's fine by me.

Good lcuk with your speculation - be careful is the best advice that I can give you; other than that I don't think that I have anything useful to add to your enterprise, except don't do this with serious money - only speculate what you can afford to lose.

I'm not sure what soecific holdings info will tell you but I have absolutely nothing to hide - The Osmium Portfolio was until a few weeks ago allocated as follows:

Holding

Cash

37.97%

CF Miton Special Situations

24.91%

MAN AHL

6.68%

GAA Q

6.49%

Moonraker Commodities

6.38%

Moonraker GOP

5.52%

MOG Core Diversified

2.45%

Carmignac Patrimoine

2.43%

CF Miton Strategic

2.03%

CF Ruffer Total Return

1.92%

Turnstone European

1.90%

Berkshire Hathaway

0.75%

CF Ruffer European

0.57%

Total

100.00%

There have been quite a lot of changes during March and April - I can get you an update next week if you'd like.

This information is a specific answer to a particular question and not a recommendation as to the suitability of Osmium or any of Martin Gray or Scott Campbell's portfolios or any of the underlying assets for any particular investor.

Thanks Gambles, we have different styles and we should both be careful and keep a close watch , I do every minute of the day. The idea being sharing of more info here regarding real trading of course DYOR is the most important piece of advise. The endless articles posted here should be reserved for the financial crisis thread IMO. Thanks for your input

Edited April 16, 2010 by zorro1

[fletchsmile]

Actually, Zorro, it's not that easy to average 10% / year

the average of the best private client managers have achieved 6.2% per year over the last 5 years in their balanced portfolios (PCI Index, Sterling, Balanced to 31.3.10)

Over the last 9 years (to 31.12.09) which is the longest period shown on trustnet Martin Gray's total return of 96% placed him 76% ahead of UK fund managers with the same aims who averaged 20% in total.

but whilever Martin keeps doing what he does, then that's fine by me.

Good lcuk with your speculation - be careful is the best advice that I can give you; other than that I don't think that I have anything useful to add to your enterprise, except don't do this with serious money - only speculate what you can afford to lose.

I'm not sure what soecific holdings info will tell you but I have absolutely nothing to hide - The Osmium Portfolio was until a few weeks ago allocated as follows:

Holding Cash 37.97% CF Miton Special Situations 24.91% MAN AHL 6.68% GAA Q

6.49%

Moonraker Commodities

6.38%

Moonraker GOP

5.52%

MOG Core Diversified

2.45%

Carmignac Patrimoine

2.43%

CF Miton Strategic

2.03%

CF Ruffer Total Return

1.92%

Turnstone European

1.90%

Berkshire Hathaway

0.75%

CF Ruffer European

0.57%

Total 100.00%

There have been quite a lot of changes during March and April - I can get you an update next week if you'd like.

This information is a specific answer to a particular question and not a recommendation as to the suitability of Osmium or any of Martin Gray or Scott Campbell's portfolios or any of the underlying assets for any particular investor.

Very honest and open post Gambles. Useful benchmarks and stats too for comparisons.

The portfolio above looks well diversified and quite conservative. Looks as though it would have been good thru 2008. The UK fund managers average is surprisingly low at 20% though, and 76% looks prima facie respectable given the tough times we've just done.

What currency are you using as base on those? My guess would be GBP right?

There's an interesting spin on that though given we live in Thailand.

While 6.2% p.a. or 35% compound over 5 years isn't bad for someone back in the west, we need to bear in mind that for those of us living in Thailand GBP has lost 33% vs THB over 5 years. So effectively for someone living here, with their main outgoings in THB => anything the portfolio has made over 5 years has been lost on the FX exposure....

Is the portfolio really suitable for someone living here? Anyone taking say 4-5% from the portfolio each year to live off, would effectively have been taking money from capital, which would further have compounded worries....

In fairness 9 years looks better given sterling is down only 23% vs THB and a 96% portfolio gain, but you'd still be drawing from capital. For those that went with the average fund manager's return of 20% they'd be in real trouble.

{Calc used: GBP 100 was worth approx THB 7,320 9 years ago. GBP 196 now is approx THB 9,620. So while you have 7.8% pa in GBP, THB 7,320 to THB 9,620 is only around 3% p.a, and below your take out if someone is living on it}

All cases: Throw in inflation in Thailand and it's worse still.............

Edited April 16, 2010 by fletchsmile

[Gambles]

Actually, Zorro, it's not that easy to average 10% / year

the average of the best private client managers have achieved 6.2% per year over the last 5 years in their balanced portfolios (PCI Index, Sterling, Balanced to 31.3.10)

Over the last 9 years (to 31.12.09) which is the longest period shown on trustnet Martin Gray's total return of 96% placed him 76% ahead of UK fund managers with the same aims who averaged 20% in total.

but whilever Martin keeps doing what he does, then that's fine by me.

Good lcuk with your speculation - be careful is the best advice that I can give you; other than that I don't think that I have anything useful to add to your enterprise, except don't do this with serious money - only speculate what you can afford to lose.

I'm not sure what soecific holdings info will tell you but I have absolutely nothing to hide - The Osmium Portfolio was until a few weeks ago allocated as follows:

Holding Cash 37.97% CF Miton Special Situations 24.91% MAN AHL 6.68% GAA Q

6.49%

Moonraker Commodities

6.38%

Moonraker GOP

5.52%

MOG Core Diversified

2.45%

Carmignac Patrimoine

2.43%

CF Miton Strategic

2.03%

CF Ruffer Total Return

1.92%

Turnstone European

1.90%

Berkshire Hathaway

0.75%

CF Ruffer European

0.57%

Total 100.00%

There have been quite a lot of changes during March and April - I can get you an update next week if you'd like.

This information is a specific answer to a particular question and not a recommendation as to the suitability of Osmium or any of Martin Gray or Scott Campbell's portfolios or any of the underlying assets for any particular investor.

Very honest and open post Gambles. Useful benchmarks and stats too for comparisons.

The portfolio above looks well diversified and quite conservative. Looks as though it would have been good thru 2008. The UK fund managers average is surprisingly low at 20% though, and 76% looks prima facie respectable given the tough times we've just done.

What currency are you using as base on those? My guess would be GBP right?

There's an interesting spin on that though given we live in Thailand.

While 6.2% p.a. or 35% compound over 5 years isn't bad for someone back in the west, we need to bear in mind that for those of us living in Thailand GBP has lost 33% vs THB over 5 years. So effectively for someone living here, with their main outgoings in THB => anything the portfolio has made over 5 years has been lost on the FX exposure....

Is the portfolio really suitable for someone living here? Anyone taking say 4-5% from the portfolio each year to live off, would effectively have been taking money from capital, which would further have compounded worries....

In fairness 9 years looks better given sterling is down only 23% vs THB and a 96% portfolio gain, but you'd still be drawing from capital. For those that went with the average fund manager's return of 20% they'd be in real trouble.

{Calc used: GBP 100 was worth approx THB 7,320 9 years ago. GBP 196 now is approx THB 9,620. So while you have 7.8% pa in GBP, THB 7,320 to THB 9,620 is only around 3% p.a, and below your take out if someone is living on it}

All cases: Throw in inflation in Thailand and it's worse still.............

Thanks Fletch,

Sorry for not being clearer (although as usual you've made the right assumptions!) - yes, this is managed in base currency in GBP but is also offered, mechanically hedged, in

THB

SGD

US$

AUD

There really should be a CHF version too and that will come shortly

Eur may also follow (if there's still a Euro to hedge into!!)

That's a really good point that you make about currencies and we're constantly preaching the message about trying to identify base currencies of income and capital - not always a completely obvious call for many of us as Herr Naam has rightly pointed out

While this is low vol and highly consistent, it's not neccessarily a pure income fund - as an alternative there are THB income funds that chase defined yields that we introduce to suitable investors - hard to get too much yield right now though in THB or hedged on secure, liquid assets, - I've been away all week so I'd have to check but I think that current yields there are still at 7.3%.

One interestimg idea is a balanced blend of yield and low volatility which will be available shortly - a kind of lazy portfolio for those who don't need more than say 4-5% income but do want average medium to long term capital growth of a similar order. Not yet available though but coming soon (as they say) !