The Stock Market

[nakachalet]

quoting....

Parvis you are the derivative expert.

At present - I see Market going up Tuesday morning - then selling off. At the end of the day Tuesday (last hour) - there is a strong potential that Market will recover sharply. At that time you should notice that put/call ratio will become high. Should this occur - as I described - there is a strong potential Market will go up 700 points on DJI within the next week or so. But I do not trade on projected anticipation - but rather what the Market is telling me at any given time (my "inside information" ie the "inside of my crystall ball").

parvis....

as you guesstimate.... Market going up Tuesday morning - then selling off ....

the end of the day.... Tuesday (last hour) - there is strong potential that Market will recover sharply.

just to help you prove your points....

i'll go long 10 ym during the opening, then sell 10 back sometimes during the next hour or so.... and we'll see if your forecast is on par....

and sometimes thereafter, i shall short another 10 with the intention to buy them back sometimes during the last hour....

to help you prove your second set of theory....

i hope we have winners on both the long and the short sides of the trades....

we have gone 10 long on ym at the indicated enlarged price of 9975

JUST DECIDE FOR YOURSELF.... JUST W H E N DO YOU WISH TO UNLOAD THE 10 LONG POSITIONS, OK?....

according to parvis.... price should go higher than 9975.... :jap:

it is utterly not fair for parvis.... a trader's performance should be judged on a 6 months or longer achievement.... but not on a one night stand like what i am attempting to do.... (shame on me! ) i just want to give him credit for daring to stick his neck out to put out a prediction.... and hope his guesstimate would be right on....

[nakachalet]

quoting....

Parvis you are the derivative expert.

At present - I see Market going up Tuesday morning - then selling off. At the end of the day Tuesday (last hour) - there is a strong potential that Market will recover sharply. At that time you should notice that put/call ratio will become high. Should this occur - as I described - there is a strong potential Market will go up 700 points on DJI within the next week or so. But I do not trade on projected anticipation - but rather what the Market is telling me at any given time (my "inside information" ie the "inside of my crystall ball").

parvis....

as you guesstimate.... Market going up Tuesday morning - then selling off ....

the end of the day.... Tuesday (last hour) - there is strong potential that Market will recover sharply.

just to help you prove your points....

i'll go long 10 ym during the opening, then sell 10 back sometimes during the next hour or so.... and we'll see if your forecast is on par....

and sometimes thereafter, i shall short another 10 with the intention to buy them back sometimes during the last hour....

to help you prove your second set of theory....

i hope we have winners on both the long and the short sides of the trades....

we have gone 10 long on ym at the indicated enlarged price of 9975

JUST DECIDE FOR YOURSELF.... JUST W H E N DO YOU WISH TO UNLOAD THE 10 LONG POSITIONS, OK?....

according to parvis.... price should go higher than 9975.... :jap:

it is utterly not fair for parvis.... a trader's performance should be judged on a 6 months or longer achievement.... but not on a one night stand like what i am attempting to do.... (shame on me! ) i just want to give him credit for daring to stick his neck out to put out a prediction.... and hope his guesstimate would be right on....

[Parvis]

Quote:

"it is utterly not fair for parvis.... a trader's performance should be judged on a 6 months or longer achievement.... but not on a one night stand like what i am attempting to do.... (shame on me! ) i just want to give him credit for daring to stick his neck out to put out a prediction.... and hope his guesstimate would be right on.... "

It is already obviously apparent that we are not going higher at the opening. Had we gone higher - it would not have been much anyhow. If we have a strong comeback in the last hour - the jury is still out. I am not really "sticking out my neck" since I personally do not trade according to my future "expectations (guesstimates)" but rather to "specific occurences" in the Market.

For instance "specific occurences" showed me the Market will go down today Tuesday (quite sharply) - my "expectations (guesstimate)" were we would have a "blip up" in the morning before start of sell-off (incorrect expectation). As someone pointed out "aiming for perfection has its price".

My "expectations (guesstimate)" are we will have a "major" reversal to the up-side at the end of Tuesdays trading day - not yet borne out by "specific occurences".

It is not fair to judge any traders performance - without understanding his specific aim - and particularily not by having hypothetical trades (which do not indicate necessarily an entry position).

Edited July 20, 2010 by Parvis

[jcon]

Parvis you are the derivative expert

I read this comment on the web today

" TODAY WAS LOWEST PUT VOLUME SINCE 07 " which was followed

by the following comment by someone else ?

" If true, that is insane. And very very bearish."

But i dont understand the mechanism of this because its 180 degrees

to what you would expect! But as usual there must be a logical

explanation and I thought you might know ?

Correct - low put volume (put/call ratio) TENDS to be a short term negative - therefore the Market should (more correctly WILL) go down tomorrow Tuesday.

However, you cannot use the P/C ratio alone for actual timing - you should use it more as "confirmation" with other indications.

MECHANISM:

1) Small traders tend to buy (go long) puts or calls since to sell short (write) has a much higher capital requirement (higher risk).

2) Institutions etc. primarily buy puts as a ratio to their long asset holdings as "down side insurance/protection" (highest volume puts).

3) Market makers tend to ONLY SHORT (also called "write") PUTS OR CALLS since time is in their favor (premium deteriorates as time passes).

When the p/c ratio is very low - this tends to indicate that "3" are shorting CALLS in the anticipation that Market will sell off (inside information?).

As I said - this is short term indicator only.

At present - I see Market going up Tuesday morning - then selling off. At the end of the day Tuesday (last hour) - there is a strong potential that Market will recover sharply. At that time you should notice that put/call ratio will become high. Should this occur - as I described - there is a strong potential Market will go up 700 points on DJI within the next week or so.

But I do not trade on projected anticipation - but rather what the Market is telling me at any given time (my "inside information" ie the "inside of my crystall ball").

Thank you so much :jap:

As much as I'd hate to barge in on an otherwise interesting exchange of misinformation - I feel like I should make a few points here as midas actually asked a genuine question and so he shouldn't deserve (let along ''thank'') such a narrow and dangerously false perception of derivatives (specifically the SPX options, which I think midas was referring to).

The put-call ratio isn't going to tell you anything, especially if you don't know volumes, volatility, who's trading them, and a whole bunch of other voodoo-inputs. Actually, midas, you can see that, just like any other ''number'' aka technical indicator you can interpret it in any which way you like. So one guy is going to say a low put-call ratio is bearish, and another guy will tell you it's bullish (one guy thinks he's being a contrarian, the other thinks he's following some kind of trend). Fine, so I don't like technicals - some do, and I won't take issue with that.

But I will take issue with the points parvis made about the ''mechanism." Parvis says:

MECHANISM:

1) Small traders tend to buy (go long) puts or calls since to sell short (write) has a much higher capital requirement (higher risk).

2) Institutions etc. primarily buy puts as a ratio to their long asset holdings as "down side insurance/protection" (highest volume puts).

3) Market makers tend to ONLY SHORT (also called "write") PUTS OR CALLS since time is in their favor (premium deteriorates as time passes).

When the p/c ratio is very low - this tends to indicate that "3" are shorting CALLS in the anticipation that Market will sell off (inside information?).

I'm going assume midas was referring to the SPX. Please correct me if I'm wrong midas. So "1)" doesn't matter. "2)" rubbish. "3)" absolute rubbish.

Midas, I think you can see for yourself why "1)" doesn't really matter. This is the SPX we're talking about.

As for "2)," Institutions could be long/short/speculating/sideways/backwards/upside-down/doggy-style any position and they could be doing anything in the SPX, even the use of ''primarily'' doesn't cut it.

Finally, "3)" is just insane. If market makers were to only short (yes, I know parvis said ''primarily,'' but again, that doesn't make his statement any less worse) options, they'd be short gamma/volatility and market makers not only make the market but they have their own portfolios (their company's) to manage so always being short vol is just plain stupid in most cases. Most market makers prefer to be long gamma and then trade their way to pay for it (that's what they do as market makers) and then let the long vol position bring in the cash when vol moves. Yes, maybe over the summer, some companies will go short vol/gamma but it's not the smartest move, especially if the market makers are good at what they are supposed to be doing, which is making money on the floor, making markets. Parvis makes it sound like market makers don't have a portfolio to look after (they do, and it can be huge).

This one is a doozie:

"When the p/c ratio is very low - this tends to indicate that "3" are shorting CALLS in the anticipation that Market will sell off (inside information?)."

That's just plain wrong. Market makers are there to make the market for the trades that come in from the broker-dealers. They aren't the ones making the master plans, they are making the markets (if the name ''market maker'' wasn't self-explanatory enough). They trade what comes into the SPX. The only inside information is what the broker-dealer will tell them if you're standing right next to him and have known him for awhile. And market makers don't use that information to anticipate larger ''sell offs,'' they will just use it to make a proper market (for them), and to maybe trade the futures ahead of the pack. That's super short-term stuff. Yeah the big banks have market makers down in the pit, but it's a zero-sum game down there, so this type of herd-''anticipation'' would defeat the purpose of having traders in the pit. This is applicable to the SPX, which I'm assuming midas was referring to.

Finally - SPX traders know that a put is a call and call is a put (yes, they are essentially the same, you can make one into the other synthetically). So all that matters is volatility (or implied volatility). And they will arbitrage all day long along the rules of put-call parity. That alone indicates that the put-call ratio isn't a really good indicator of much, especially in the SPX.

So midas - be careful from whom you get your information. There's a lot of crap in here. But lets not let reality and facts get in the way of this thread, that would be a disservice to TV

Parvis, no need to try to re-explain yourself with some more ersatz-quotes. I know the score.

[nakachalet]

Quote:

"it is utterly not fair for parvis.... a trader's performance should be judged on a 6 months or longer achievement.... but not on a one night stand like what i am attempting to do.... (shame on me! ) i just want to give him credit for daring to stick his neck out to put out a prediction.... and hope his guesstimate would be right on.... "

It is already obviously apparent that we are not going higher at the opening. Had we gone higher - it would not have been much anyhow. If we have a strong comeback in the last hour - the jury is still out. I am not really "sticking out my neck" since I personally do not trade according to my future "expectations (guesstimates)" but rather to "specific occurences" in the Market.

For instance "specific occurences" showed me the Market will go down today Tuesday (quite sharply) - my "expectations (guesstimate)" were we would have a "blip up" in the morning before start of sell-off (incorrect expectation). As someone pointed out "aiming for perfection has its price".

My "expectations (guesstimate)" are we will have a "major" reversal to the up-side at the end of Tuesdays trading day - not yet borne out by "specific occurences".

It is not fair to judge any traders performance - without understanding his specific aim - and particularily not by having hypothetical trades (which do not indicate necessarily an entry position).

parvis....

relax.... you are not entirely wrong, neither were you entirely right either....

the lot was sold at 9988....

see.... you were right.... too....

at certain point in time.... this morning.... CONGRATS....

Edited July 20, 2010 by nakachalet

[nakachalet]

Quote:

"it is utterly not fair for parvis.... a trader's performance should be judged on a 6 months or longer achievement.... but not on a one night stand like what i am attempting to do.... (shame on me! ) i just want to give him credit for daring to stick his neck out to put out a prediction.... and hope his guesstimate would be right on.... "

It is already obviously apparent that we are not going higher at the opening. Had we gone higher - it would not have been much anyhow. If we have a strong comeback in the last hour - the jury is still out. I am not really "sticking out my neck" since I personally do not trade according to my future "expectations (guesstimates)" but rather to "specific occurences" in the Market.

For instance "specific occurences" showed me the Market will go down today Tuesday (quite sharply) - my "expectations (guesstimate)" were we would have a "blip up" in the morning before start of sell-off (incorrect expectation). As someone pointed out "aiming for perfection has its price".

My "expectations (guesstimate)" are we will have a "major" reversal to the up-side at the end of Tuesdays trading day - not yet borne out by "specific occurences".

It is not fair to judge any traders performance - without understanding his specific aim - and particularily not by having hypothetical trades (which do not indicate necessarily an entry position).

parvis....

relax.... you are not entirely wrong, neither were you entirely right either....

the lot was sold at 9988....

see.... you were right.... too....

at certain point in time.... this morning.... CONGRATS....

parvis....

had i known better..... :lol:

now look at the attached.... what do you have to say yourself....

the morning is still young.... obviously.... it is only 10 am EST.... :clap2:

Edited July 20, 2010 by nakachalet

[midas]

As much as I'd hate to barge in on an otherwise interesting exchange of misinformation - I feel like I should make a few points here as midas actually asked a genuine question and so he shouldn't deserve (let along ''thank'') such a narrow and dangerously false perception of derivatives (specifically the SPX options, which I think midas was referring to).

So midas - be careful from whom you get your information. There's a lot of crap in here. But lets not let reality and facts get in the way of this thread, that would be a disservice to TV

Parvis, no need to try to re-explain yourself with some more ersatz-quotes. I know the score.

Oh thanks jcon ! Yes it was SPX options

but as I said in my reply to Abrak the part that confused me when i posted

my question was I thought about the 2 comments in the wrong way resulting in my

instant reaction - why there would be a low volume of puts if everyone

was " very very " bearish ?

Edited July 20, 2010 by midas

[lannarebirth]

Parvis you are the derivative expert

I read this comment on the web today

" TODAY WAS LOWEST PUT VOLUME SINCE 07 " which was followed

by the following comment by someone else ?

" If true, that is insane. And very very bearish."

But i dont understand the mechanism of this because its 180 degrees

to what you would expect! But as usual there must be a logical

explanation and I thought you might know ?

Correct - low put volume (put/call ratio) TENDS to be a short term negative - therefore the Market should (more correctly WILL) go down tomorrow Tuesday.

However, you cannot use the P/C ratio alone for actual timing - you should use it more as "confirmation" with other indications.

MECHANISM:

1) Small traders tend to buy (go long) puts or calls since to sell short (write) has a much higher capital requirement (higher risk).

2) Institutions etc. primarily buy puts as a ratio to their long asset holdings as "down side insurance/protection" (highest volume puts).

3) Market makers tend to ONLY SHORT (also called "write") PUTS OR CALLS since time is in their favor (premium deteriorates as time passes).

When the p/c ratio is very low - this tends to indicate that "3" are shorting CALLS in the anticipation that Market will sell off (inside information?).

As I said - this is short term indicator only.

At present - I see Market going up Tuesday morning - then selling off. At the end of the day Tuesday (last hour) - there is a strong potential that Market will recover sharply. At that time you should notice that put/call ratio will become high. Should this occur - as I described - there is a strong potential Market will go up 700 points on DJI within the next week or so.

But I do not trade on projected anticipation - but rather what the Market is telling me at any given time (my "inside information" ie the "inside of my crystall ball").

Thank you so much :jap:

As much as I'd hate to barge in on an otherwise interesting exchange of misinformation - I feel like I should make a few points here as midas actually asked a genuine question and so he shouldn't deserve (let along ''thank'') such a narrow and dangerously false perception of derivatives (specifically the SPX options, which I think midas was referring to).

The put-call ratio isn't going to tell you anything, especially if you don't know volumes, volatility, who's trading them, and a whole bunch of other voodoo-inputs. Actually, midas, you can see that, just like any other ''number'' aka technical indicator you can interpret it in any which way you like. So one guy is going to say a low put-call ratio is bearish, and another guy will tell you it's bullish (one guy thinks he's being a contrarian, the other thinks he's following some kind of trend). Fine, so I don't like technicals - some do, and I won't take issue with that.

But I will take issue with the points parvis made about the ''mechanism." Parvis says:

MECHANISM:

1) Small traders tend to buy (go long) puts or calls since to sell short (write) has a much higher capital requirement (higher risk).

2) Institutions etc. primarily buy puts as a ratio to their long asset holdings as "down side insurance/protection" (highest volume puts).

3) Market makers tend to ONLY SHORT (also called "write") PUTS OR CALLS since time is in their favor (premium deteriorates as time passes).

When the p/c ratio is very low - this tends to indicate that "3" are shorting CALLS in the anticipation that Market will sell off (inside information?).

I'm going assume midas was referring to the SPX. Please correct me if I'm wrong midas. So "1)" doesn't matter. "2)" rubbish. "3)" absolute rubbish.

Midas, I think you can see for yourself why "1)" doesn't really matter. This is the SPX we're talking about.

As for "2)," Institutions could be long/short/speculating/sideways/backwards/upside-down/doggy-style any position and they could be doing anything in the SPX, even the use of ''primarily'' doesn't cut it.

Finally, "3)" is just insane. If market makers were to only short (yes, I know parvis said ''primarily,'' but again, that doesn't make his statement any less worse) options, they'd be short gamma/volatility and market makers not only make the market but they have their own portfolios (their company's) to manage so always being short vol is just plain stupid in most cases. Most market makers prefer to be long gamma and then trade their way to pay for it (that's what they do as market makers) and then let the long vol position bring in the cash when vol moves. Yes, maybe over the summer, some companies will go short vol/gamma but it's not the smartest move, especially if the market makers are good at what they are supposed to be doing, which is making money on the floor, making markets. Parvis makes it sound like market makers don't have a portfolio to look after (they do, and it can be huge).

This one is a doozie:

"When the p/c ratio is very low - this tends to indicate that "3" are shorting CALLS in the anticipation that Market will sell off (inside information?)."

That's just plain wrong. Market makers are there to make the market for the trades that come in from the broker-dealers. They aren't the ones making the master plans, they are making the markets (if the name ''market maker'' wasn't self-explanatory enough). They trade what comes into the SPX. The only inside information is what the broker-dealer will tell them if you're standing right next to him and have known him for awhile. And market makers don't use that information to anticipate larger ''sell offs,'' they will just use it to make a proper market (for them), and to maybe trade the futures ahead of the pack. That's super short-term stuff. Yeah the big banks have market makers down in the pit, but it's a zero-sum game down there, so this type of herd-''anticipation'' would defeat the purpose of having traders in the pit. This is applicable to the SPX, which I'm assuming midas was referring to.

Finally - SPX traders know that a put is a call and call is a put (yes, they are essentially the same, you can make one into the other synthetically). So all that matters is volatility (or implied volatility). And they will arbitrage all day long along the rules of put-call parity. That alone indicates that the put-call ratio isn't a really good indicator of much, especially in the SPX.

So midas - be careful from whom you get your information. There's a lot of crap in here. But lets not let reality and facts get in the way of this thread, that would be a disservice to TV

Parvis, no need to try to re-explain yourself with some more ersatz-quotes. I know the score.

Excellent post jcon and not to mention there are equity p/c ratios and index p/c ratios. Me I like the $OEX when looking at that.

[Parvis]

Nakachalet you said

relax.... you are not entirely wrong, neither were you entirely right either....

the lot was sold at 9988....

see.... you were right.... too....

at certain point in time.... this morning.... CONGRATS....

Well - you certainly should not have considered my call for a higher opening a suggestion this would be a tradeable move. Had I been less "perfectionist" - I should have called only the downmovement tradeable.

The question is still yet - shall we have the late reversal I "expect" - and yes that still appears to happen - probably 1-2 hours before the close.

[badge]

I believe Put/Call ratios are a worthy addition to any market timers' indicators.

[Parvis]

I believe Put/Call ratios are a worthy addition to any market timers' indicators.

Now consider using an indicator called "On Balance Volume" behind the Chart - see if that tells you something.

OBV was invented by "Joe Granville" (the perma bear) many years ago.

[lannarebirth]

I believe Put/Call ratios are a worthy addition to any market timers' indicators.

Now consider using an indicator called "On Balance Volume" behind the Chart - see if that tells you something.

OBV was invented by "Joe Granville" (the perma bear) many years ago.

Sometimes there is such a thing as "too much information". Not saying OBV isn't useful, it is, but perhaps in a weekly timeframe.

Edited July 20, 2010 by lannarebirth

[Parvis]

I believe Put/Call ratios are a worthy addition to any market timers' indicators.

Now consider using an indicator called "On Balance Volume" behind the Chart - see if that tells you something.

OBV was invented by "Joe Granville" (the perma bear) many years ago.

Sometimes there is such a thing as "too much information". Not saying OBV isn't useful, it is, but perhaps in a weekly timeframe.

I see your point - I only use max 6 month Charts (Daily) and the info displayed is easier to read.

Edited July 20, 2010 by Parvis

[PCA]

I believe Put/Call ratios are a worthy addition to any market timers' indicators.

Now consider using an indicator called "On Balance Volume" behind the Chart - see if that tells you something.

OBV was invented by "Joe Granville" (the perma bear) many years ago.

Sometimes there is such a thing as "too much information". Not saying OBV isn't useful, it is, but perhaps in a weekly timeframe.

I see your point - I only use max 6 month Charts (Daily) and the info displayed is easier to read.

well that explains a lot, trying to lock the market into a cage will definitely end up in ping pong games. A typical gamblers approach which leads one either to run after the market or to try predicting based on pure fiction.

[jcon]

As much as I'd hate to barge in on an otherwise interesting exchange of misinformation - I feel like I should make a few points here as midas actually asked a genuine question and so he shouldn't deserve (let along ''thank'') such a narrow and dangerously false perception of derivatives (specifically the SPX options, which I think midas was referring to).

So midas - be careful from whom you get your information. There's a lot of crap in here. But lets not let reality and facts get in the way of this thread, that would be a disservice to TV

Parvis, no need to try to re-explain yourself with some more ersatz-quotes. I know the score.

Oh thanks jcon ! Yes it was SPX options

but as I said in my reply to Abrak the part that confused me when i posted

my question was I thought about the 2 comments in the wrong way resulting in my

instant reaction - why there would be a low volume of puts if everyone

was " very very " bearish ?

NP (no problem) midas. I think Abrak alluded to why some people would claim that low put volume would be bearish. It's basically the assumption that if there is low put volume then sentiment is bullish - and hence the contrarian would say that is effectively bearish. My point was to just explain that it's a bit more complex than that and that low put volume could mean basically anything.

Lanna, thanks (I still don't know how to use the multiquote, so I couldn't include your reply to me). It may be that the put-call ratios can be used as a tool more so in equity options, perhaps - but as I assumed that midas was speaking of the SPX, I just had to put some things to rest about the complexity of the whole thing and how dangerous it would be to not account for the many variables in that market. There is so much going on in the SPX that I would be remiss if I didn't point out the flaws in Parvis' opinions about derivatives (as they pertain to the SPX, which midas has confirmed was what he was referring to). Re: the OEX, I'm not sure how the American-style expiration would effect the put-call parity I mentioned (SPX being European-style) since I've never traded it, but I know your tools work for you and you've been around the block and that's really all that matters for a successful trader!

I actually don't mind charts and things of that nature too much - I learn something at least, as I don't think I've ever charted anything in my life. I'm also interested in Naam's bond investing, as it's a total mystery to me (yes, I plead ignorance) as well as Abrak's knowledge of the Thai markets. Sometimes this thread can be good (as much as I like to rip on it), but one has to admit it is often pretty jumbled up and the pros don't say much (I suspect because they, like me, don't want to interrupt an otherwise entertaining parade of misinformation or one-sided ''I made 30% in 5 days" kind of stuff which doesn't really increase anybody's knowledge base....)

That said, I think guys like Ray23 should just keep banging away asking questions and eventually people will respond. He takes the approach of somebody willing to learn, and that is a good humble approach IMO.

[nakachalet]

parvis....

you are the man....

here is the up and down during the last two hours.... as you guesstimated.... rather correctly....

[nakachalet]

parvis....

you are the man....

here is the up and down during the last two hours.... as you guesstimated.... rather correctly....

[Parvis]

parvis....

you are the man....

here is the up and down during the last two hours.... as you guesstimated.... rather correctly....

No the Market did not behave the way I anticipated. From the standpoint of now starting the 700 point climb - we should have had a bottom later in the day. From the standpoint of daytrading we had a double bottom "1 hour apart" early in the day which essentially guarantees you a profitable "daytrade". The probem with daytrade - I find - is that to be able to get in and out "at will" I need to limit my trade to 10 contracts (bought at 7.8 - sold at 12.2 - low of day 7.5 - high of day 12.65).

Either way we are setting up for a significant rally - but we are very likely to return to the previous bottom - or nearly so - set on Tuesday.

[badge]

I believe Put/Call ratios are a worthy addition to any market timers' indicators.

Now consider using an indicator called "On Balance Volume" behind the Chart - see if that tells you something.

OBV was invented by "Joe Granville" (the perma bear) many years ago.

Im not a huge fan of OBV; I can take it or leave it.

I listed the indicators I follow on stocks many pages ago.

None carry sufficient weight to place a trade though, that rights reserved to a trade/price model.

[Parvis]

From my viewpoint - OBV does not give me exact timing - therefore I look at it - but do not trade with it. My timeframe is too short for OBV to give me any significant signal.

[midas]

parvis....

you are the man....

here is the up and down during the last two hours.... as you guesstimated.... rather correctly....

No the Market did not behave the way I anticipated. From the standpoint of now starting the 700 point climb - we should have had a bottom later in the day. From the standpoint of daytrading we had a double bottom "1 hour apart" early in the day which essentially guarantees you a profitable "daytrade". The probem with daytrade - I find - is that to be able to get in and out "at will" I need to limit my trade to 10 contracts (bought at 7.8 - sold at 12.2 - low of day 7.5 - high of day 12.65).

Either way we are setting up for a significant rally - but we are very likely to return to the previous bottom - or nearly so - set on Tuesday.

Do the results of the European Stress tests have anything to do with your expected

" significant rally " ? It is already being reported that all the banks everywhere

have passed so maybe they are just waiting for the big finale day announcement on Friday.

Other than because the earnings season hasnt had that much of an effect surely

there would have to be some kind of " event " to trigger a " significant rally "

and I am trying to think what it would be ? Or does it have something to do with

the weekly jobs report tommorow ?

Edited July 21, 2010 by midas

[Parvis]

Midas said

Do the results of the European Stress tests have anything to do with your expected

" significant rally " ? It is already being reported that all the banks everywhere

have passed so maybe they are just waiting for the big finale day announcement on Friday.

Other than because the earnings season hasnt had that much of an effect surely

there would have to be some kind of " event " to trigger a " significant rally "

and I am trying to think what it would be ? Or does it have something to do with

the weekly jobs report tommorow ?

No, I do not base my "predictions" on "events" - but rather just on technical factors. We did not have the bottom late in the day - as I had envisioned. In other words we should have had the initial down with futures (which we had) and then revisited this bottom about 1-2 hours before the close (which did not happen). Technically we are not strong enough to go above the resistance at approx. DJI 10350 - YET. I expect - we will go down again shortly - before this "significant rally" can occur.

Edited July 21, 2010 by Parvis

[BlackJack]

AND . ASX up 4.8% today - gold

woooh whoooo

make that 8.5%

[midas]

No, I do not base my "predictions" on "events" - but rather just on technical factors. We did not have the bottom late in the day - as I had envisioned. In other words we should have had the initial down with futures (which we had) and then revisited this bottom about 1-2 hours before the close (which did not happen). Technically we are not strong enough to go above the resistance at approx. DJI 10350 - YET. I expect - we will go down again shortly - before this "significant rally" can occur.

But I distinctly remember you saying you base your method on change in sentiment ?

Surely there would have to be some event or news that would trigger a change in that sentiment

that would then translate into technical factors to give you your “"significant rally" ?

You are making it sound like your squigly lines have a life of their own ?

I mean even Goldman Sucks of all people are starting to sound bearish now ( which really surprised me )

so I am just trying to join the dots on how you go from this subdued environment to enough of a change of sentiment to result not in a rally but a "significant rally" ?

[badge]

From my viewpoint - OBV does not give me exact timing - therefore I look at it - but do not trade with it. My timeframe is too short for OBV to give me any significant signal.

Of course like most technical indicators, one can use OBV on any time frame.

So are you suggesting it only works on larger/longer timeframes? Daily? Weekly? If so, perhaps you could offset a faster/longer term OBV?

Not my cup of tea, in any timeframe.

[badge]

I wouldnt worry Midas, Parvis' apparent expertise lies is desperately trying to come across as a market trading sophisticate.

Perhaps he intends to offer a subscription service? At least then he can make some money from all his market talk hehehe Im only joking, just because I say 'the market should head up' and it doesnt certainly doesnt mean I cant make money. Besides which, suggesting a reversal in the last hour, during results season, is a bold call.

The reality of Mr P's conclusions - his 'tips' - we've discussed in the past, shows in practice his brand of squiggles doesnt cut it, and for that reason Mr P, regretably, you're fired.

[midas]

I wouldnt worry Midas, Parvis' apparent expertise lies is desperately trying to come across as a market trading sophisticate.

Perhaps he intends to offer a subscription service? At least then he can make some money from all his market talk hehehe Im only joking, just because I say 'the market should head up' and it doesnt certainly doesnt mean I cant make money. Besides which, suggesting a reversal in the last hour, during results season, is a bold call.

The reality of Mr P's conclusions - his 'tips' - we've discussed in the past, shows in practice his brand of squiggles doesnt cut it, and for that reason Mr P, regretably, you're fired.

yeah well badge I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt

because I am just trying to imagine what gives him his signal for a " significant rally "

But at the end of the day I still see better perks in this method of making money .....

well compared to the Parvis method anyway

Edited July 21, 2010 by midas

[Parvis]

No, I do not base my "predictions" on "events" - but rather just on technical factors. We did not have the bottom late in the day - as I had envisioned. In other words we should have had the initial down with futures (which we had) and then revisited this bottom about 1-2 hours before the close (which did not happen). Technically we are not strong enough to go above the resistance at approx. DJI 10350 - YET. I expect - we will go down again shortly - before this "significant rally" can occur.

But I distinctly remember you saying you base your method on change in sentiment ?

Surely there would have to be some event or news that would trigger a change in that sentiment

that would then translate into technical factors to give you your ""significant rally" ?

You are making it sound like your squigly lines have a life of their own ?

I mean even Goldman Sucks of all people are starting to sound bearish now ( which really surprised me )

so I am just trying to join the dots on how you go from this subdued environment to enough of a change of sentiment to result not in a rally but a "significant rally" ?

There appears to be a desperate efford to discredit anyone who has a different viewpoint on this thread. Analyze for instance my explanation of put /call ratio - and the lengthy rambling reply by a certain poster. No one even mentions that CBOE has a "S+P 500 Put Writing Index" (Symbol PUT) - or is aware of it. Used correctly with a "certain formula" will tell you a "substantial move" before the actual occurence - AS IF BY MAGIC. No one mentions that Put open interest is substantially higher than Call open Interest AT ALL TIMES. If you are smart enough to create a formula to compare premium - you will also notice that premium increases in the direction of the expected move BEFORE the move - AS IF BY MAGIC. Markets are "controlled" - by using derivatives (created out of "thin air") - learn to read the "controlling mechanism" and you can predict directions accurately - but not necessarily to the exact hour (which I am TRYING to do).

Midas you appear to have a mind of your own - look at what is available and reach your own conclusions - not necessarily according to the opinion of other "would like to be experts".

Edited July 21, 2010 by Parvis

[midas]

No, I do not base my "predictions" on "events" - but rather just on technical factors. We did not have the bottom late in the day - as I had envisioned. In other words we should have had the initial down with futures (which we had) and then revisited this bottom about 1-2 hours before the close (which did not happen). Technically we are not strong enough to go above the resistance at approx. DJI 10350 - YET. I expect - we will go down again shortly - before this "significant rally" can occur.

But I distinctly remember you saying you base your method on change in sentiment ?

Surely there would have to be some event or news that would trigger a change in that sentiment

that would then translate into technical factors to give you your ""significant rally" ?

You are making it sound like your squigly lines have a life of their own ?

I mean even Goldman Sucks of all people are starting to sound bearish now ( which really surprised me )

so I am just trying to join the dots on how you go from this subdued environment to enough of a change of sentiment to result not in a rally but a "significant rally" ?

There appears to be a desperate efford to discredit anyone who has a different viewpoint on this thread. Analyze for instance my explanation of put /call ratio - and the lengthy rambling reply by a certain poster. No one even mentions that CBOE has a "S+P 500 Put Writing Index" (Symbol PUT) - or is aware of it. Used correctly with a "certain formula" will tell you a "substantial move" before the actual occurence - AS IF BY MAGIC. No one mentions that Put open interest is substantially higher than Call open Interest AT ALL TIMES. If you are smart enough to create a formula to compare premium - you will also notice that premium increases in the direction of the expected move BEFORE the move - AS IF BY MAGIC. Markets are "controlled" - by using derivatives (created out of "thin air") - learn to read the "controlling mechanism" and you can predict directions accurately - but not necessarily to the exact hour (which I am TRYING to do).

Midas you appear to have a mind of your own - look at what is available and reach your own conclusions - not necessarily according to the opinion of other "would like to be experts".

ok.....now i think i can see which direction you are coming from

Edited July 21, 2010 by midas

[zorro1]

Just a heads up.A large portion of Penny dreadfuls have gone ballistic in the last few weeks, could, maybe, possibly be a sign the market is about to move forward. Seems too simple an analogy however they are the first to make big loss/ gains and those who dont watch them wouldn't see the majority have bottomed and trending back up.

Very Very happy today recovered a large amount in a stock that I had written off WGP. Chased it from 3.8c to 1.3c and it Bounced 35% for now reason, could be leaky ship or pump n dump exit. has no cash. shocking mgmt and and a failed SPP at 2.2c. Must remember never to average down to 1c anymore although, ironically it got me out, also not to choose the smallest market cap on the ASX anymore...

Anyway good to see Midas back on the boards praying for a global meltdown & financial holocaust

Midas Ive always wondered how you think another great depression may effect you and your family's life style?