The Stock Market

[Piengrudee]

900+ already. Yeah . . . . .

[Parvis]

I do find your more buyers than sellers argument difficult on the basis that buyers will automatically match sellers by definition. It is an axiom.

And the for the market to move higher - in general - most stocks should move higher also rather assumes I am not capable of buying an ice cream.

True only IF AND ONLY IF Buyers are to be found at the same price Sellers want to sell. Typically, if there are no willing buyers "to match" the Stock/Index will take a sudden drop to a price buyers are willing "to match" (the phenomenon of a "Flash Crash").

The desire to Sell tends to be more urgent then the desire to Buy.

(Good to keep in mind in Thailand "The Buyer is in charge - not the Seller")

Edited August 23, 2010 by Parvis

[midas]

And now the MSM is reporting on the " exodus "

In Striking Shift, Small Investors Flee Stock Market

" Investors withdrew a staggering $33.12 billion from domestic stock market mutual funds in the first seven months of this year, according to the Investment Company Institute, the mutual fund industry trade group. Now many are choosing investments they deem safer, like bonds.

If that pace continues, more money will be pulled out of these mutual funds in 2010 than in any year since the 1980s, with the exception of 2008, when the global financial crisis peaked.

“At this stage in the economic cycle, $10 to $20 billion would normally be flowing into domestic equity funds” rather than the billions that are flowing out, said Brian K. Reid, chief economist of the investment institute. He added, “This is very unusual.”

After past recessions, ordinary investors have typically regained their enthusiasm for stocks, hoping to profit as the economy recovered. This time, even as corporate earnings have improved, Americans have become more guarded with their investments ."

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/22/business/22invest.html?_r=2&hp

Edited August 23, 2010 by midas

[Abrak]

True only IF AND ONLY IF Buyers are to be found at the same price Sellers want to sell. Typically, if there are no willing buyers "to match" the Stock/Index will take a sudden drop to a price buyers are willing "to match" (the phenomenon of a "Flash Crash").

The action of Selling tends to be more urgent then the action of Buying.

(Good to keep in mind in Thailand "The Buyer is in charge - not the Seller")

Parvis, I know exactly what you mean by more sellers than buyers it is a very old joke. Clearly transactions will take place on a willing seller, willing buyer basis. So by definition if a price goes up their must have been more willing buyers at a lower price than willing sellers.

Look Parvis I am sure you have a winning strategy for investment and I know whatever it is based on is not bullshit. So please dont try and bullshit a bullshitter.

[Abrak]

BTW Midas I do not object to you rubbishing the stock market but pleae do not imply that people should place their money in the banks.

Investing in deposits is only for the insane irresponsible and incompetent. I inherently also believe it is immoral. Unless you are a banker, you should not, imho, advize people to place money with the banks. You are also implying a level of stupidity that I find totally unacceptable. So I am happy to accept a view that you think investing in stocks is stupid but you should be very careful when you imply that peoples capital should be invested in the banking deposits.

[Parvis]

Parvis, I know exactly what you mean by more sellers than buyers it is a very old joke. Clearly transactions will take place on a willing seller, willing buyer basis. So by definition if a price goes up their must have been more willing buyers at a lower price than willing sellers.

Look Parvis I am sure you have a winning strategy for investment and I know whatever it is based on is not bullshit. So please dont try and bullshit a bullshitter.

Abrak - I don't want to "bullshit you" - as an Old Timer - it is a language I have never become "endeared with". However - if I stimulate your imagination - it may serve a good purpose.

As you mentioned before Experience is a good Teacher - but I would like to emphasize - many - many - may have 20 or more years of Experience - but have learned nothing new in the last 15. Attitude and willingness to consider/research alternative ideas/concepts determines the "long distance runners success".

[midas]

BTW Midas I do not object to you rubbishing the stock market but pleae do not imply that people should place their money in the banks.

Investing in deposits is only for the insane irresponsible and incompetent. I inherently also believe it is immoral. Unless you are a banker, you should not, imho, advize people to place money with the banks. You are also implying a level of stupidity that I find totally unacceptable. So I am happy to accept a view that you think investing in stocks is stupid but you should be very careful when you imply that peoples capital should be invested in the banking deposits.

Oh Abrak there you go again !

Please dont get your knickers in a twist

I didnt write those words - you can see i only posted it from Business Insider.

Write to them if you disagree.

And anyway I agree with you why would anyone put money back in the banks after what they have done

to people. But then the sham of a stockmarket isn't any better ?

As the NYT article says :- " The notion that stocks tend to be safe and profitable investments over time seems to have been dented in much the same way that a decline in home values and in job stability the last few years has altered Americans’ sense of financial security.It may take many years before it is clear whether this becomes a long-term shift in psychology "

[BlackJack]

I am reading forum from OZ on stocks and how people now are crying in their soup because of 1 mining stock

this stock was ramped from cents to $4.80 over 4 years

some punters kept pouring cash into it and their families cash as well

the JORC report came out and its lost over 60% in a few days and still falling

now some complaining of losing 100's of K

and why why why

LESSON is dont put all your eggs in one basket

theres nothing wrong with parking money in the bank getting good interest whilst waiting for that golden trade

no one is sure of the markets as the current situation has never happened before and so all the theories charts trends etc mean absolutely zip

long term we know a few things

bricks and mortar

gold

taxes

populations

all have gone up

death is certain

live long and prosper

say where is Namm

[midas]

BTW Midas I do not object to you rubbishing the stock market but pleae do not imply that people should place their money in the banks.

Investing in deposits is only for the insane irresponsible and incompetent. I inherently also believe it is immoral. Unless you are a banker, you should not, imho, advize people to place money with the banks. You are also implying a level of stupidity that I find totally unacceptable. So I am happy to accept a view that you think investing in stocks is stupid but you should be very careful when you imply that peoples capital should be invested in the banking deposits.

Oh Abrak there you go again !

Please dont get your knickers in a twist

I didnt write those words - you can see i only posted it from Business Insider.

Actually Abrak the person who gave this advice was this guy Mark Cuban

He owns the NBA's Dallas Mavericks, Landmark Theatres, and is Chairman of HDNet.

He sold Broadcast.com to Yahoo in 1999 for $5.7 billion.

I dont know ....maybe he also owns some banks which is why he wrote this advice ?

[Abrak]

As you mentioned before Experience is a good Teacher - but I would like to emphasize - many - many - may have 20 or more years of Experience - but have learned nothing new in the last 15. Attitude and willingness to consider/research alternative ideas/concepts determines the "long distance runners success".

Genuinely Parvis I totally disagree with you. I think that you need to have a strategy that you fully understand and that you need to be disciplined in executing it. I am basically a value investor, I simply do not care about price in any reasonable time frame.

So genuinely because investors are volatile the very understanding and discipline that you apply to a strategy is what is important. I know what a company is worth which is the future discounted of its cash flows. It is absolute Parvis, I need to know nothing else. If you wish to state that I can learn how prices move relative to their underlying fundamentals you might be right. However it assumes you know the underlying fundamentals better than I do.

Seriously Parvis, every professional on this thread has their own philosophy and sticks to it with discipline. I am willing to bet that you know and understand yours rather than you wish to learn new ones.

I genuinely do not believe in flexibility Parvis. Maybe it is in the odd world that I live in which is that after 16 years the market has halved I have made good returns.

And everyone learns Parvis. The fact that fundamentals move over to EVA analysis or price to sales valuations I will know as well as a chartist knows that interest in Armageddon omens is something that he pays attention to and understands if he gives it limited relevence.

Honestly Parvis, I am 90% sure that you have your own investment strategy. I very much doubt you are interested in understanding mine. And to the extent I am interested in all investment strategies I dont need to be given a more buyers than sellers argument. You can continue that with Midas. And really if you wish me or anyone else to consider that more buyers than sellers is either a concept or an idea you might as well as well go back and try and argue with Midas that the only reason people buy stocks is that they believe there is a greater fool than them and that prices will go up.

I have a 7 year old and conversations are not reduced to this level of stupidity. (Apart from the fact that I am a little confused how I should answer the 'why isnt there a God question?'.)

[Parvis]

Abrak - I think many times we are talking past each other rather than to each other.

A Philosophy about Markets does not equal a Philosophy about Investment. Both require different perspectives and perhaps different disciplines.

Your 7 year old son has a legitimate question - "If God did not exist - Man - for his own comfort - needs to invent him".

Edited August 23, 2010 by Parvis

[zorro1]

Bears Grow Stronger

By Colin Twiggs

August 23, 2010 5:00 a.m. ET (7:00 p.m. AET)

These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment or trading advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use.

Bearish sentiment abounds. The DAX is headed for a test of primary support. Failure of support would mean that the big six markets, US, Japan, China, UK, Germany and France are all in a primary down-trend. Also, keep a weather eye on Transport: a primary down-trend there would complete the trifecta.

Reminder:

October is the most bearish month in the year, with many major recorded crashes (1929, 1987). We are likely to see consolidation until the end of the quarter, followed by a breach of support. The breach, however, may either resolve into a primary down-trend or rally sharply to complete a bear trap. All we can do is remain vigilant and stick to objective signals — avoid being swayed by the mood of the market.

USA

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow encountered resistance at 10400 and is retracing to find support. Reversal below the former primary support level at 9900 would indicate another down-swing, with a target of 8700*. Twiggs Momentum (63-day) reversal below zero signals a continuing down-trend. Failure of the lower border of the broadening wedge formation would confirm.

[Abrak]

Abrak - I think many times we are talking past each other rather than to each other.

A Philosophy about Markets does not equal a Philosophy about Investment. Both require different perspectives and perhaps different disciplines.

Your 7 year old son has a legitimate question - "If God did not exist - Man - for his own comfort - needs to invent him".

Ok anyway thanks for helping me out on the God question.

Question 'why isnt there a God?'

Answer 'There is and always will be. We simply dont know if he actually exists or not.'

Probably not the perfect answer but should at least shut him up for a while until he takes on the stock market.

Even on that subject, I will try the more buyers than sellers approach to the 'why?' question. I am sincerely hoping he will avoid a 'PPT' stage.

[flying]

Speaking of God........

I know someone that made a pile on CALL

VocalTec Communications Ltd.

(Public, NASDAQ:CALL)

You know the magic jack guys? Now the magic voice too....

In any case good for him

Edited August 24, 2010 by flying

[badge]

4) We are just now beginning another cycle up - perhaps we should call this cycle "The Midas touch Phenomenon".

Let's just let the Market talk - and confirm - or deny - we are at the beginning of a substantial upmovement.

Parvis calls a rally, Globex hits new lows. Still got the one and only Original, 'Parivs touch Phenomenon', yay

[midas]

4) We are just now beginning another cycle up - perhaps we should call this cycle "The Midas touch Phenomenon".

Let's just let the Market talk - and confirm - or deny - we are at the beginning of a substantial upmovement.

Parvis calls a rally, Globex hits new lows. Still got the one and only Original, 'Parivs touch Phenomenon', yay

Or maybe it’s the “ Rising Wedge Phenomenon “ ?

On the 15th of this month Parvis said

“The chart pattern I make reference to is a rising wedge - IF completed will top at approx. 10 800 on the Dow in early September ”.

Yes there would have to be something pretty phenomenal occuring as a catalyst to a 600+ rise over the next 1-2 weeks as retail investors keep heading for the exits?

[badge]

My mistake Midas, you're correct, our favourite contra-indicator was bullish before the above comments I highlighted, and the market declines.

Whether the market rallies 5% or more is up for debate, what is clear however is that Mr P's sentiments have clearly been bullish, and the stockmarket has spoken, against him.

[Parvis]

My mistake Midas, you're correct, our favourite contra-indicator was bullish before the above comments I highlighted, and the market declines.

, against him.

Whether the market rallies 5% or more is up for debate, what is clear however is that Mr P's sentiments have clearly been bullish, and the stockmarket has spoken

Yes - indeed - I am clearly bullish - since 8-24 - but ofcourse I already stated last Friday.

If you insist on 8-15 - I would suggests you re-read my post - which ofcourse maybe difficult for semi-literate, tatooed Vultures.

Edited August 24, 2010 by Parvis

[midas]

My mistake Midas, you're correct, our favourite contra-indicator was bullish before the above comments I highlighted, and the market declines.

, against him.

Whether the market rallies 5% or more is up for debate, what is clear however is that Mr P's sentiments have clearly been bullish, and the stockmarket has spoken

Yes - indeed - I am clearly bullish - since 8-24 - but ofcourse I already stated last Friday.

If you insist on 8-15 - I would suggests you re-read my post - which ofcourse maybe difficult for semi-literate, tatooed Vultures.

a gift for you Parvis !

[teletiger]

My cap's got a revolving 9. When we hit 6000.....I'm prepared. Also the last 0 rips off.....so I'm really prepared.

Regards.

[badge]

Yes - indeed - I am clearly bullish - since 8-24 - but ofcourse I already stated last Friday.

If you insist on 8-15 - I would suggests you re-read my post - which ofcourse maybe difficult for semi-literate, tatooed Vultures.

He must be addressing you Midas?

Ive misjudged Mr P.

Whilst hes demonstrated many times having no ability to call stock markets - the topic Im sure most readers focus on, and a common affliction for which no shame should be bared - I didnt think he was your typical internet-forum fodder that tries to resort to completely unfounded and highly ironic personal insults.

Perhaps its simply because equities have declined? Live and learn I suppose.

[Parvis]

Yes - indeed - I am clearly bullish - since 8-24 - but ofcourse I already stated last Friday.

If you insist on 8-15 - I would suggests you re-read my post - which ofcourse maybe difficult for semi-literate, tatooed Vultures.

He must be addressing you Midas?

Ive misjudged Mr P.

Whilst hes demonstrated many times having no ability to call stock markets - the topic Im sure most readers focus on, and a common affliction for which no shame should be bared - I didnt think he was your typical internet-forum fodder that tries to resort to completely unfounded and highly ironic personal insults.

Perhaps its simply because equities have declined? Live and learn I suppose.

I remember you called the exact bottom in the middle of last week. I don't call exact bottoms since I do not use support and resistance as determinating factor.

The "insults" - are personal - because I know you - "personally".

I could say something about your English - but it only shows your lack of education.

Edited August 24, 2010 by Parvis

[midas]

Yes - indeed - I am clearly bullish - since 8-24 - but ofcourse I already stated last Friday.

If you insist on 8-15 - I would suggests you re-read my post - which ofcourse maybe difficult for semi-literate, tatooed Vultures.

He must be addressing you Midas?

Ive misjudged Mr P.

Whilst hes demonstrated many times having no ability to call stock markets - the topic Im sure most readers focus on, and a common affliction for which no shame should be bared - I didnt think he was your typical internet-forum fodder that tries to resort to completely unfounded and highly ironic personal insults.

Perhaps its simply because equities have declined? Live and learn I suppose.

Of course he is badge

Never mind despite the personal insults he dishes out, i will still send the Christmas present I picked for him.

I mean the poor chap needs all the help he can get

[badge]

I remember you called the exact bottom in the middle of last week.

I don't call exact bottoms since I do not use support and resistance as determinating factor.

The "insults" - are personal - because I know you - "personally".

I could say something about your English - but it only shows your lack of education.

I didnt call any bottom last week, you're mistaken.

You don't call exact bottoms, because you can't. Its understandable. It has been an extremely long, expensive and hard-fought process to design a model thats able to do so, and has nothing to do with the 'support and resistance' to which you refer.

You most certainly do not know me personally. Im rather particular about the company I keep, no offence intended. In any case its a shame that you feel the need to type insults to strangers.

You can say what you wish about my English, and attempt as many mildly disparaging comments as you wish; the comments of abusive internet forum contributors are meaningless.

Why don't we cut out the personal gibes and stick to gibing stock chat

[Parvis]

I remember you called the exact bottom in the middle of last week.

I don't call exact bottoms since I do not use support and resistance as determinating factor.

The "insults" - are personal - because I know you - "personally".

I could say something about your English - but it only shows your lack of education.

I didnt call any bottom last week, you're mistaken.

You don't call exact bottoms, because you can't. Its understandable. It has been an extremely long, expensive and hard-fought process to design a model thats able to do so, and has nothing to do with the 'support and resistance' to which you refer.

You most certainly do not know me personally. Im rather particular about the company I keep, no offence intended. In any case its a shame that you feel the need to type insults to strangers.

You can say what you wish about my English, and attempt as many mildly disparaging comments as you wish; the comments of abusive internet forum contributors are meaningless.

Why don't we cut out the personal gibes and stick to gibing stock chat

Remember your recent multiple deprecating comments - about Americans and me - as American - in particular. You just can't deal with - with what you yourself hand out very often.

"deprecating" - absolute nonsensical rubbish - used with intention to belittle, ridicule, offend.

Edited August 24, 2010 by Parvis

[teletiger]

nonsensical rubbish - used with intention to belittle, ridicule, offend.

That worked out well then.

Regards.

[badge]

FTSE cash flashed a buy signal late y'day @ 5140(low was 5160), with around 5080 and 5010/15 looking likely thereafter.

SPX cash would also have shown a buy at 1063, but I dont trade or follow SPX, and the moments been and gone as it bounced 9 handles from 1064, so irrelevant. Infact as FTSE has yet to decline enough to reach its buy prices, that SPX signal may well be void by a lower print, which might then point to around 1052.5, or even 1030 as possible buys.

That said, as SPX is superfluous to my P+L I dont really monitor it. My model just 'got lucky' with a sell signal right at the high

FTSE 5140 was'nt really seized upon, putting 5080 in the frame, and Id guess near the previously mentioned 5010/15 or perhaps a tad above around 5025/30 thereafter.

A buy signal was almost made y'day about 7 pips above the FTSEs low, however thats quite a way out in terms of accuracy for my model, and wasnt even strong enough to be classed as a signal, so obviously ignored.

Both ESX and DAX are in similar positions; having reversed higher very close to buy singals after y'days spike low on US Housing data news. Within the LSE, UK mining stocks reversed up from a buy, UK banks did not. UK Mid-cap index FTSE 250 stocks reversed up from a buy, but UK Tech index did not. So on balance Ive given the recent down trend the benefit of the doubt for now.

SPX traded through 1052.5 thus voiding the signal, and shows 1040ish and Id guess 1030 thereafter as possible buy signals

[badge]

Interesting that USDJPY is just off a 15year low, and the Thai SET Index is just off a 14year high. Sadly my software wont allow me to overlay the price graphs.

[siamamerican]

Yes - indeed - I am clearly bullish - since 8-24 - but ofcourse I already stated last Friday.

If you insist on 8-15 - I would suggests you re-read my post - which ofcourse maybe difficult for semi-literate, tatooed Vultures.

He must be addressing you Midas?

Ive misjudged Mr P.

Whilst hes demonstrated many times having no ability to call stock markets - the topic Im sure most readers focus on, and a common affliction for which no shame should be bared - I didnt think he was your typical internet-forum fodder that tries to resort to completely unfounded and highly ironic personal insults.

Perhaps its simply because equities have declined? Live and learn I suppose.

I remember you called the exact bottom in the middle of last week. I don't call exact bottoms since I do not use support and resistance as determinating factor.

The "insults" - are personal - because I know you - "personally".

I could say something about your English - but it only shows your lack of education.

This forum is a source of humor for me at this point. Don't waste your time arguing as I once did. Mnay are internet fools that don't have a clue about real life. They spend their time on this site pontificating to no end about conspiracies and fringe economic theories. They hate Americans because of petty jealousy and enjoy our recent self inflicted economic crisis. They forget to look in the mirror and see their own short comings and resort to ridiculing others. Somehow they are incapable of seeing past the their own tiny world and realizing that the world isn't falling apart. There are still people out there that don't spin their wheels complaining about everything that will keep the world turning while the fools keep jabbering about basically nothing of any significance.

[AlexLah]

Come on chill out guys, it's time for some pictures......