Opportunity Comes Knocking

[CaptainARK1]

The thread calls are very close to coming to fruition - within 14 days from monday, October 12-09, the entire thread call taken as ONE concept will be 100% accurate.

100% accurate? Yes, so far. Oct 12 + 14 days = Oct 26.

Looks good so far, but need to see some serious damage in Dow Jones before declaring the top is in.

[CaptainARK1]

this is a special note to my stalker here ...... more attacks forthcoming? .... all are welcome

>>>> SET < 628 will get me interested. Bummer right now as I had to switch brokers and get setup with a new one, so no realtime just yet. In any event if Dollar/Baht cannot cross 35+ easily it would be suicidal to short SET50. So this is a wait and see as SET is very Dollar married and the Baht has raped just about every major currency except the Yen. (see Post 1) <<<<

is any further explanation necessary?

but here it is anyway ........

SET50 futures #trades is low because I only short down days which have been very, very few. On up days, esp. gap up days, I don't play. Same as my currency trading style with one significant difference. In my currency trades I'm with the correctly called TREND direction for Sterling = going with the river. But in trading SET50 futures I'm going against the river, against the extant trend which is UP. Why would I violate such an important rule, "Do NOT trade against the trend unless you want to die!?" .... Because with SET especially, traders should have learned but never do, that when SET turns instantly on a dime a months' gains are wiped out in a matter of 2 hours or 1 day. Being out early rather than late is the smart thing to do. You'll see, very soon.

The SET has some of the lowest P/E valuations in Asia. I see no logical reason to attempt to short it. Why not short the Heng Sang ? The SET is not a hot market, its not 1996.

Your honor, I'm done with this guy

[CaptainARK1]

Been busy, will catch up now.

[CaptainARK1]

He he! Lovely to see Harmonica/capt back in action here!

The start of the thread has him shorting gold at around $930 but I am sure he has changed his mind/adjusted that many times as gold marched on - that is part of the charm - I admit i have not read all 8 pages of this

Also I have not checked the full thread on his USD predictions - except that he was bullish on the USD at the start of thread - USD have weakened further.

Will gold adjust down/USD adjust up again at a given point in time? Surely - at least temporarly - the HARD part is the TIMING.

Cheers!

I don't trade Gold. Harmonica does, I don't. Strictly currencies and SET50 futures.

[CaptainARK1]

but in the meantime while we wait for Gold and $ outcome what did I get right/wrong?

Sterling/Dollar ------- correct (Post #1)

Sterling/Yen ------- correct (Post #2)

Yen cash holding ------- correct (many mentions)

Vix breakout ------- correct (Post #89)

Japan's Nikkei ------- correct (Post #109)

Singapore ------- correct

China ------- correct

Crude Oil ------- correct ?? (Post #166) .. final confirm within 14 days

Corp. bonds investment grade ------- correct (Post #119)

----------------------------------------------------------------

London Footsie -------- wrong (Post #1)

Thailand Set50 futures -------- wrong (different thread)

----------------------------------------------------------------

The Footsie and SET50 wrongs are mitigated by a 70% capture of the entire move thus far upto the point I close my Set50 Long - and even with a new marginal top possible next week, a 70% strike hit is even by Buffett's standards pretty good. But, I'm shooting for 90%+ accuracy of calling a top, so there is plenty of room for improvement in the future.

Note: I only trade currencies and SET50 futures, so the others are pure calls only.

I'll wait another 2-4 weeks or so for final confirmation whether I'm all wrong or right.

[CaptainARK1]

I just opened a mini-Lot short GBPUSD @ 1.6101

Trade (3 posiions all minis) will be closed at the open of next week regardless whether market continues in my favor or not. Busy with other stuff, can't monitor.

profit will be approx. 215-250 pips for the 3 positions depending on where I get closed out.

The trade was in any event mini-Lots. Will go to full Lots again sometime next week on any new trades.

sorry to say Capn't but this statement alone declares how little you know about trading with real money on the line. You will never make serious coins with that attitude. But since it's all paper trading it doesn't really matter in the end.

You have 20 losers which you cut and then you have one (claimed) winner and you cut it as well mamma mia, hehehe

All realmoney trades, PCA. And those were profitable trades, small because there was no $ bottom, but normal is minm. 1 Lot plays. Of all the trades posted here there was only 1 loser, all the rest were profitable.

But there is a very easy way to settle this - who is paper trading or realmoney trading, who the losers are or who the winners are ...

see new thread, PCA - I expect you to post your trades there and/or provide audited brokerage results. Same goes for everybody here.

Like Warren said, "we'll see who's swimming naked"

[CaptainARK1]

The wave 1, 2 count is dead. The low was just taken out.

So the 60-min. top of October 2 becomes wave 4 and the previous instance I called a "4" is now a "4th of 3"

sorry but that is the liability of elliottwave counting - along with my own liabilities

so if this is a 5th of 5th its got to end very soon? Yeah, dream on Cap'n

OK, continuing with the only important index there is - esp. since its $ versus rest of the world.

Let's see if my wavecount is now finally correct? Few more days required. Critical will be when the $ corrects on 60-min. frame, will the Oct 21 bottom hold or not?

Also $ very close to taking out topside trendline.

[flying]

I don't trade Gold. Harmonica does, I don't. Strictly currencies and SET50 futures.

And Yet..............

Gold reversal imminent.

Also to be fair........Wouldn't most following your advice be long ...........broke

Repeating, just $, Yen AND the wife and kids. Dump everything else.

[badge]

CaptinA55 you missed by a country mile.

On the plus side, you mus tbe nearing break even?

chok dee

[sokal]

this is a special note to my stalker here ...... more attacks forthcoming? .... all are welcome

>>>> SET < 628 will get me interested. Bummer right now as I had to switch brokers and get setup with a new one, so no realtime just yet. In any event if Dollar/Baht cannot cross 35+ easily it would be suicidal to short SET50. So this is a wait and see as SET is very Dollar married and the Baht has raped just about every major currency except the Yen. (see Post 1) <<<<

is any further explanation necessary?

but here it is anyway ........

SET50 futures #trades is low because I only short down days which have been very, very few. On up days, esp. gap up days, I don't play. Same as my currency trading style with one significant difference. In my currency trades I'm with the correctly called TREND direction for Sterling = going with the river. But in trading SET50 futures I'm going against the river, against the extant trend which is UP. Why would I violate such an important rule, "Do NOT trade against the trend unless you want to die!?" .... Because with SET especially, traders should have learned but never do, that when SET turns instantly on a dime a months' gains are wiped out in a matter of 2 hours or 1 day. Being out early rather than late is the smart thing to do. You'll see, very soon.

The SET has some of the lowest P/E valuations in Asia. I see no logical reason to attempt to short it. Why not short the Heng Sang ? The SET is not a hot market, its not 1996.

Your honor, I'm done with this guy

oh so the SET IS a hot market and it IS 1996,

[teletiger]

Personally, I'd wait to see where this latest pullback goes before calling a "fail".

Regards.