Over 9.5 Million Suffer As Drought Spreads

[Andrew K Fletcher]

I was referring to goats, as having a prohibitive effect on natural regeneration of forests, eating small shoots of emerging saplings is not something that goats avoid readily.

Furthermore, Goats, deer and sheep ring bark (remove bark) around the outside of the lower part of the trees and kill them. Admittedly many wild creatures will perform the same destructive habitual attacks on tree bark and eating saplings, but wild animals are free to move from one area to another and therefore allow natural regeneration and self-seeding to occur.

In many desert areas, grazing goats and camel are managing the deserts to great effect, making sure that any natural regeneration is thwarted by their insatiable needs to survive in these harsh climates.

Andrew

[Andrew K Fletcher]

Could this be the reason that Thailand is experiencing droughts more frequently?

Larger Picture

Arid Australian interior linked to landscape burning by ancient humans

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The image of a controlled burn in the interior of Australia today, featured on the cover of the January 2005 issue of Geology, illustrates how Australia might have looked 50,000 years ago. Photo courtesy Gifford Miller, University of Colorado at Boulder

Click here for a high resolution photograph.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Landscape burning by ancient hunters and gatherers may have triggered the failure of the annual Australian Monsoon some 12,000 years ago, resulting in the desertification of the country's interior that is evident today, according to a new study.

University of Colorado at Boulder Professor Gifford Miller said the study builds on his research group's previous findings that dozens of giant animal species went extinct in Australia roughly 50,000 years ago due to ecosystem changes caused by human burning. The new study indicates such burning may have altered the flora enough to decrease the exchange of water vapor between the biosphere and atmosphere, causing the failure of the Australian Monsoon over the interior.

"The question is whether localized burning 50,000 years ago could have had a continental-scale effect," said Miller, a fellow at CU-Boulder's Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research. "The implications are that the burning practices of early humans may have changed the climate of the Australian continent by weakening the penetration of monsoon moisture into the interior."

A paper on the subject by Miller appears in the January issue of Geology. Co-authors include CU-Boulder's Jennifer Mangan, David Pollard, Starley Thompson and Benjamin Felzer of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder and John Magee of Australian National University in Canberra.

Geologic evidence indicates the interior of Australia was much wetter about 125,000 years ago during the last interglacial period. Although planetary and meteorological conditions during the most recent ice age caused Earth's major monsoons to waver, all except the Australian Monsoon were "reinvigorated" to full force during the Holocene Period beginning about 12,000 years ago, he said.

Although the Australian Monsoon delivers about 39 inches of rain annually to the north coast as it moves south from Asia, only about 13 inches of rain now falls on the continent's interior each year, said Miller, also a CU-Boulder geological sciences professor. Lake Eyre, a deep-water lake in the continent's interior that was filled by regular monsoon rains about 60,000 years ago, is now a huge salt flat that is occasionally covered by a thin layer of salty water.

The earliest human colonizers are believed to have arrived in Australia by sea from Indonesia about 50,000 years ago, using fire as a tool to hunt, clear paths, signal each other and promote the growth of certain plants, he said. Fossil remains of browse-dependent birds and marsupials indicate the interior was made up of trees, shrubs and grasses rather than the desert scrub environment present today.

The researchers used global climate model simulations to evaluate the atmospheric and meteorological conditions in Australia over time, as well as the sensitivity of the monsoon to different vegetation and soil types. A climate model simulating a forested Australia produced twice as much annual monsoon precipitation over the continental interior as the model simulating arid scrub conditions, he said.

"Systematic burning across the semiarid zone, where nutrients are the lowest of any continental region, may have been responsible for the rapid transformation of a drought-tolerant ecosystem high in broad-leaf species to the modern desert scrub," he said. "In the process, vegetation feedbacks promoting the penetration of monsoon moisture into the continental interior would have been disrupted."

More than 85 percent of Australia's megafauna weighing more than 100 pounds went extinct roughly 50,000 years ago, including an ostrich-sized bird, 19 species of marsupials, a 25-foot-long lizard and a Volkswagen-sized tortoise, he said.

Evidence for burning includes increased charcoal deposits preserved in lake sediments at the boundary between rainforest and interior desert beginning about 50,000 years ago, Miller said. In addition, a number of rainforest gymnosperms -- plants whose seeds are not encased and protected and are therefore more vulnerable to fire -- went extinct at about that time.

Natural fires resulting from summer lightning strikes have played an integral part in the ecology of Australia's interior, and many plant species are adapted to regimes of frequent fires, he said. "But the systematic burning of the interior by the earliest colonizers differed enough from the natural fire cycle that key ecosystems may have been pushed past a threshold from which they could not recover."

###

The National Science Foundation and the Australian Research Council funded the study with additional support from Australian National University and CU-Boulder.

[Andrew K Fletcher]

Nationwide Drought Hits Home in Thailand's Poor Northeast

March 20, 2005 — By Rungrawee C. Pinyorat, Associated Press

BAN NONG MA, Thailand — Every morning, 59-year-old Kiew Intra rises early to drive her cart several kilometers (miles) to the local disaster relief center in northeastern Thailand, to queue up for a dozen four-liter (one-gallon) jugs of clean water.

The land around the center is as parched as her own neighborhood, where the ponds and canals dried up months ago -- but it's where government water trucks come for emergency distribution as Thailand's seasonal drought hits home again.

Severe drought is also affecting millions of mostly rural poor people in Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. It's variously blamed on seasonal rainfall fluctuations, global warming and China's damming of the Mekong River, which flows through the region.

"The drought this year is the worst," said Kiew, who lives with a 6-year-old grandson in Ban Nong Ma, a village of 1,500 people 210 kilometers (130 miles) northeast of Bangkok.

Deputy Agriculture Minister Newin Chidchob says this year's drought is the worst in seven or eight years.

Dams in Thailand's Northeast, its poorest region, are less than half full. Tap water is practically a distant memory, and former lakes and ponds likewise have been dusty for months. The big ceramic jars most villagers use to catch rain in their yards contain, at most, a couple of centimeters (inches) of fetid water.

According to official figures, this year's drought has damaged 2 million hectares (5.2 million acres) of farmland, and caused hundreds of millions of dollars (euros) in economic losses. More than 9 million people in 66 of Thailand's 76 provinces have been directly affected by the water shortage. Damage mounts by the day.

Thai farmers need water to grow rice, their primary crop. But now, the only water available -- by truck -- is just enough for people, not plants.

Two crops are normally grown a year, but Newin said he expects only 10 percent of Thailand's arable land can sustain two harvests this year.

With more than 60 percent of Thais engaged in agriculture, the scope of the problem is huge.

"The rice grains have withered because there was no rain," said Ban Nong Ma farmer Boonma Klaiklangplu, 54.

Last year she sold about four tons of rice and earned roughly 28,000 baht (US$730, euro547). This year she has produced only two tons, and may not earn enough to feed her family of five.

Sugar cane, another major commodity, is also hard hit.

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's government is scrambling for solutions.

In an unprecedented move, King Bhumibol Adulyadej will command a newly established rainmaking center near his summer palace in the coastal town of Hua Hin.

Forty-five aircraft will start seeding clouds with chemicals in the next few days in a bid to induce rain, though officials caution that the method will be difficult in hot, dry areas.

The Cabinet has voted for emergency funding to keep water trucks rolling and maintain wells and pipes, and the government has vowed to work out a long-term water management program. It has even announced its intention to negotiate with neighboring countries to divert water from their rivers.

Meanwhile, even children are pitching in. The school Kiew's grandson attends has asked students to bring their own drinking water to class.

"We can do nothing except wait for the rain," said Kiew.

Source: http://www.enn.com/today.html?id=7363

[Andrew K Fletcher]

Channel NewsAsia, 14 Apr 05

Baking under drought, SEAsia looks to force rain from the sky

BANGKOK : Planes take off almost every day over Thailand's dried-out rice paddies with a chemical cocktail that scientists -- guided by Thailand's king -- hope will wring the clouds dry and ease a drought that has scorched Southeast Asia. The propeller planes are packed with up to seven people including the pilot, scientists and technicians, all squeezing in around large containers of chemicals ranging from silver iodine to ordinary salt and dry ice. Flying at about 3,000 meters (10,000) feet over parched fields, dusty dams and thirsty rivers, the planes fly directly into clouds that most pilots avoid so scientists can dump their loads and wait for rain.

Thai agricultural officials say those rainmaking efforts -- known as cloud seeding -- have worked and eased the toughest drought in seven years by 80 percent. The reported success has led countries from Oman to Cambodia to ask Thailand if the method used here could ease periodic droughts in their countries, but scientists warn that cloud seeding works only in certain circumstances.

Besides, cloud seeding has a history which stretches back more than six decades and results of experiments around Asia have been mixed at best and appear more likely to cushion a drought's impact than break it. Thailand has used cloud seeding for almost 30 years, led by King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who has his own patented rain-making technique.

Rainmaking begins when the relative humidity exceeds 60 percent. Lower humidity makes the efforts harder, Wathana Sukarnkanaset, director of Thailand's bureau of royal rainmaking and agricultural aviation, tells AFP. The chemicals are sprayed into clouds to encourage smaller clouds to merge and induce rain. The cocktail causes tiny vapour droplets to coalesce and the water freezes into snow which melts as it falls. The king's technique uses two aircraft to seed warm and cold clouds at different altitudes to make rain over a wider area than other methods, Wathana said.

Flights by BT-67s, Nomads and Cessna Caravans are held almost daily and last up to two hours, depending on the aircraft's size and the target area. With Thailand's drought pinching, the air force, police and navy loaned the agricultural ministry additional planes, giving scientists a total of 45 aircraft for cloud seeding, Wathana says.

The rainmaking bureau has 600 staff and a budget of almost one billion baht (25 million dollars), though expanded operations this year and rising fuel costs could force them to request more money, Wathana says.

Like much of the rest of the region, Thailand receives lots of rain -- more than 1,200 millimetres (47 inches) a year in most areas and up to 4,000 mm (157 inches) in some coastal provinces.

But the rain doesn't fall evenly across the year, causing a cycle of droughts and floods, made worse this year by the exceptionally harsh dry season ahead of the rains that normally begin in mid-May. "Our technique tries to help distribute rain for the whole season," Wathana says.

In late March, at least 60 of Thailand's 76 provinces were hit by drought, causing low dam levels that shut down hydro-electric plants, forcing farmers to stop irrigating second crops and water officials to restrict supplies to several hours a day in some areas.

The millions of acres of ruined fields cost more than 7.5 billion baht (189.2 million dollars), the interior ministry says. After nearly 1,100 cloud seeding flights from March 15 to April 9, enough rain had fallen to ease the drought in at least 80 percent of the affected areas, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.

Sixteen provinces remain drought affected, five of them seriously. But measuring how much rain fell by cloud seeding, and how much fell naturally is difficult. US-based cloud seeding specialist William Woodley, who worked with Thai scientists on rainmaking projects in the 1990s, says that "carefully crafted cloud seeding has been shown to enhance rainfall in Thailand".

But he warns that no cloud seeding methods can succeed without suitable clouds. "In periods of extreme drought, there is not much that can be done for rainfall enhancement. The key is to employ cloud seeding when suitable clouds are present such that the enhanced rainfall is available in reservoirs during periods of drought."

Encouraged by Thailand's experience, Cambodia has asked Bangkok for cloud seeding help, with 14 of its 24 provinces hit by the drought and up to 700,000 people suffering from food shortages due to poor rice crops.

Thailand's government is considering how best to respond to the request, but has been asked by countries from around the region for technical assistance and demonstrations of the Thai technique.

Thailand and Cambodia are among the hardest-hit of seven countries baking in the drought, but Vietnam and parts of southern China, Malaysia, Laos and Indonesia and are also suffering.

Malaysia holds annual cloud seeding operations between April and May, but this year began in March to boost water supplies in the northern states of Perlis and Kedah, the country's "rice bowl".

The Philippines began cloud seeding in 1997 in the Visayas, and today uses the technique in major farming areas such as northern Luzon and the southern island of Mindanao. The Department of Agriculture in Manila said operations have in some areas cushioned the impact of long dry spells, especially in Mindanao.

In China, meteorologists combat increasing water shortages, particularly in Beijing, by pouring rainmaking chemicals from aircraft, or shooting them into the sky using rocket shells and anti-aicraft guns. Between 1995 and 2003, China spent 266 million dollars on rainmaking efforts in 23 provinces and regions, state press reports said.

Australia, the world's driest continent, began cloud seeding experiments in the late 1940s. Because of varying results, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia's top science body, stopped tests in the 1980s, having concluded the technique was ineffective at breaking droughts.

Two areas in Australia still use it -- the Snowy Mountains in New South Wales state for snow, and the southernmost state of Tasmania for water. During its first season last winter, snow in the Snowy Mountains project increased by 25 percent, officials said.

Source:

http://www.wildsingapore.com/news/20050304/050414-2.htm

[Andrew K Fletcher]

The only way to prevent these devastating droughts from turning Thailand and surrounding countries into a desert is to re-establish the coastal vegetation, by planting forests near the coastal areas!!!!!

Why don't someone listen??????? Helloooooo is there anyone at home in Government????? Where are “The So Called Experts”?

Planting trees in the right places causes rains to fall and moisture to cross onto the land. The reverse does the opposite and should be blatantly obvious to everyone concerned: Removing trees from coastlines causes deserts!

The time to act is today, while Thailand still has a tomorrow!

Andrew K Fletcher

Edited April 29, 2005 by Andrew K Fletcher

[Andrew K Fletcher]

If rains don't start in May and the dry spell extends to the start of July, the drought could cost the country at least 56 billion baht, according to a recently released forecast from the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.

The university's Center for Economic and Business Forecasting said the country's agricultural sector has already been hit hard by the drought. Huge swaths of rice fields are expected to be devastated, followed by sugarcane and maize, according to the government's Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department.

Source:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/GD06Ae02.html

[bambob]

its not surprising that this situation has arisen after so many trees have been cut down.

plus global warming of course .

this is the way its gonna be in future ,so learn to live with it .

looks like the cloud seeding did not work

[Jai Dee]

The only way to prevent these devastating droughts from turning Thailand and surrounding countries into a desert is to re-establish the coastal vegetation, by planting forests near the coastal areas!!!!!

Why don't someone listen???????  Helloooooo is there anyone at home in Government????? Where are “The So Called Experts”?

Planting trees in the right places causes rains to fall and moisture to cross onto the land. The reverse does the opposite and should be blatantly obvious to everyone concerned: Removing trees from coastlines causes deserts!

The time to act is today, while Thailand still has a tomorrow!

Andrew K Fletcher

Mister Fletcher,

I'm not sure how much you know about Thailand's coastline, but I assume very little...

You keep preaching about re-foresting Thailand's coastline, but as a person who has driven the entire lenght of both the Gulf of Thailand's coast as well as the west coast facing the Andaman Sea, I can assure you that apart from a small strip of coast south west of Bangkok in the Samut Sakhon area where there are prawn farms and salt farms, ALL of Thailand's coast is well and truly treed!

Further to the west is Myanmar (Burma), and that also is heavily treed.

Perhaps this current drought is a result of El Nino of La Nina?

Reference here.

[udon]

Hi Andrew, are you in Thailand?

[Jai Dee]

Hi Andrew, are you in Thailand?

He's gone very quiet hasn't he udon?

[udon]

Hit'n'run

[dr_Pat_Pong]

He's a Dodger ensconsed in Dodgerland.

[Andrew K Fletcher]

Udon, Jay Dee, et al: Maybe I am busy writing a new paper on fluid transport in trees, rather than as you suggest, doing a hit and run?

Answer, though I feel I have already answered your question once, stating it does not matter what part of the Earth you live in does it?

I Live in the UK. However, I do know, and communicate with people that are currently in Thailand right now!

I note you are an Australian expert on droughts and desert, with all those experts in Australia its hard to understand why Oz is almost all desert?

If you read the posts, I want to replant the trees that got trashed by the tsunami along the coastal strips. The logic is, that once exposed to the heat of the sun, thermals will rise and prevent moisture from crossing on to the land. This is why rains fail! The naked strip of coastline does not have to be inland very far, indeed only a hundred metres would suffice to cause a significant thermal barrier. The tsunami has removed a tremendous amount of vegetation for Asia, Don’t believe me? Check out NASA’s website, there is a tremendous amount of damage.

Also you will begin to appreciate that where the rains actually do fall, the path from the sea is via a forested region! Again, NASA shows clouds travelling across Thailand from a forested coastal area. But don’t take my word for it, go have a look! While you are there type in fires and Thailand as search terms and you will begin to see how serious the burning of Thailand’s forest has become.

This is the letter I sent to The King Of Thailand, in the hope that they will see how bad the situation in Thailand is becoming.

Thailand is being burned alive and no one is listening.

Disquiet disbelief as a satellite views the fires of habitual environmental desiccation from a country ###### bent on self destruction.

Over 9.5 million suffer as drought spreads to 66 provinces

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=29285

But it is not all doom and gloom!

Practical solutions are being debated on a lively discussion relating to the water shortages Thailand Now faces along with the current drought.

Invitation to anyone interested to bring in his or her thoughts and views, and see if some sense can come from this chaotic Armageddon madness.

One solution is a simple project titled “A Pocket Full of Acorns, designed to address Thailand’s declining natural forests by encouraging schools and parents to take an active roll in replanting trees in areas that are in need of some helping hands.

Another is to have a National Tree Planting Week

Native tree Seeds are given free by many forestry organisations, we just need to let people know how simple it really is to address the major environmental problems faced by Thailand today, to make sure Thailand has a tomorrow!

Andrew K Fletcher

[dr_Pat_Pong]

Instead of fighting by mail from an armchair in the UK, get off your bum and come here and show 'em how to do it.

[udon]

I note you are an Australian expert on droughts and desert, with all those experts in Australia its hard to understand why Oz is almost all desert?

Dunno who you r referring to but, the inland has been a bloody desert since the ice age..... before man...... I think 55555

[dr_Pat_Pong]

A Dodger at work

[udon]

Andrew, your intent is good but I cannot figure out why you are putting all this info on Tvisa.

If we had any influence with HM or Toxin it would be to restart selling booze 'tween 2-5pm.

Why not come out here and try shaking a few trees here to get the att of the Thai pollies?

[Jai Dee]

Andrew, your intent is good but I cannot figure out why you are putting all this info on Tvisa.

If we had any influence with HM  or Toxin it would be to restart selling booze 'tween 2-5pm.

Why not come out here and try shaking a few trees here to get the att of the Thai pollies?

I agree udon, his intent is good, but a bit misdirected... there's not a lot of political influence within ThaiVisa...

Andrew, your idea of writing to HM the King of Thailand is excellent... he has done a lot of good for the country and may be interested in your ideas.

It's certainly worth a try, but I've got to agree with udon... if you really wanted to make a difference, you are not likely to have much influence unless you're here.

[Andrew K Fletcher]

Thanks Jay Dee, Udon, Dr Pat Pong

I am trully considering coming to Thailand to see if I can encourage schools to plant trees, and to understand why this has got to be done sooner rather than later, if Thailand is to survive.

The following reading is one example of why Trees should replace some of the crops now grown.

Salinity of ground water is an inevitable consequence of removing forests. It takes years before the true impact is felt by farmers, and this must be self evident in many areas inland.

Trees the key to beating salinity

DAFF04/175M 18 August 2004

The Australian Government's Natural Heritage Trust will invest $2.9 million over two years to develop commercial environmental forestry (CEF) that will address salinity.

Speaking at a regional forest investment workshop in Morwell, Australian Forestry and Conservation Minister Senator Ian Macdonald said the CEF program developed farm forestry systems that reduced salinity while delivering commercial returns.

"It is about linking the commercial to the environmental to develop long-term agricultural business options for farmers affected by salinity," Senator Macdonald said.

"When adopted, CEF will also benefit the broader community by not only reducing salinity in the Murray system, but also by protecting water quality and biodiversity. The CEF project supports private and public outcomes for regional catchment management groups and private investors to deliver benefits."

The CEF project began in 2003, and is a major collaboration between CSIRO and the Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. Other partners include the National Association of Forest Industries, the Murray Darling Basin Commission and the Victorian Department of Primary Industries.

The project partners will invest more than $4 million in 2004-05, and plan further investment in 2005-06.

The project is focussed initially on a pilot in the Goulburn Broken Catchment where salinity is a major problem, and the Catchment Management Authority (CMA) has targeted forestry as a potential solution. The CMA is an active partner in the project and is holding community forums to involve landholders.

The project has identified those areas in the catchment where forestry will reduce salinity without stressing river flows. These areas are typically found where rainfall and growth rates are lower than in traditional plantation areas. CSIRO is undertaking research to reduce investor risk by identifying species with commercial potential for these lower rainfall areas and developing growth predictions for them.

The project is also quantifying the other environmental benefits of farm forestry of interest to regional NRM groups and governments. These include biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration and erosion control.

"This new funding of $2.9 million comes on the back of initial seed funding of $550,000 provided last year," Senator Macdonald said.

Further inquiries:

Senator Macdonald's office: David Crisafulli 0400 144 483

http://www.mffc.gov.au/releases/2004/04175m.htm

I have family in Thailand, teaching, and I have asked if the schools could adopt the Pocket Full Of Acorns Project as a school outdoor activity. Fingers crossed at the moment.

Andrew K Fletcher

[Jai Dee]

Ground water salinity is a big problem in Isaan Andrew.

Good ideas... keep 'em coming... but lobby the right people.