Is Thailand Sliding Towards Civil War?

[sassienie]

a huge amount of yellows are fanatical and driven purely by hate.

the reds in contrast are driven by love.

I suppose if things hotted up over the next few months, and another victor bout came along with a truck load of AK47s and rocket launchers, and parked it in the yellows headquarters ,

we could very well see some type of "ethnic cleansing". would the army step in ? half heatedly to round them up, but if the reds had the guns, well, dead for sure.

dude are you kidding me, are you taksins personal liason to the farang community or something? He's gone and unlikley to ever return to politics, move on. Its a little sad to see grown men or women going on and on about the guy... He was a crook, the new guys are crooks what's the difference..

I disagree with that completely.

There is a big chance that our Mr Thaksin will be back, only next time with a vengeance.

There are many factions over here that are presently just biding their time, and when that time comes, they will all be trying to claw their way into power.

The craps going to hit the fan here, maybe in the not too distant future. Many Thais already know this and I would advise think twice, think 100 times, before committing yourselves to any investments in Thailand.

[KevinBloodyWilson]

a huge amount of yellows are fanatical and driven purely by hate.

the reds in contrast are driven by love.

I suppose if things hotted up over the next few months, and another victor bout came along with a truck load of AK47s and rocket launchers, and parked it in the yellows headquarters ,

we could very well see some type of "ethnic cleansing". would the army step in ? half heatedly to round them up, but if the reds had the guns, well, dead for sure.

dude are you kidding me, are you taksins personal liason to the farang community or something? He's gone and unlikley to ever return to politics, move on. Its a little sad to see grown men or women going on and on about the guy... He was a crook, the new guys are crooks what's the difference..

I disagree with that completely.

There is a big chance that our Mr Thaksin will be back, only next time with a vengeance.

There are many factions over here that are presently just biding their time, and when that time comes, they will all be trying to claw their way into power.

The craps going to hit the fan here, maybe in the not too distant future. Many Thais already know this and I would advise think twice, think 100 times, before committing yourselves to any investments in Thailand.

I agree. I was predicting a civil war in Thailand a year ago, and I still think it is pretty much inevitable. Not sure I would care to put a time scale on it but when Thaksin comes back (and he *will* come back), then it will already be unstoppable.

And we all know what he is waiting for.

In my perception, there is already quite a lot of momentum in the resentment flywheel, and it is building up week by week.

[MyphuketLife]

a huge amount of yellows are fanatical and driven purely by hate.

the reds in contrast are driven by love.

I suppose if things hotted up over the next few months, and another victor bout came along with a truck load of AK47s and rocket launchers, and parked it in the yellows headquarters ,

we could very well see some type of "ethnic cleansing". would the army step in ? half heatedly to round them up, but if the reds had the guns, well, dead for sure.

please both sides have taken drastic actions and both sides prove they are willing to ruin the country to get what they want, both sides act like spoiled little brats.

[EffectiveAnger]

a huge amount of yellows are fanatical and driven purely by hate.

the reds in contrast are driven by love.

I suppose if things hotted up over the next few months, and another victor bout came along with a truck load of AK47s and rocket launchers, and parked it in the yellows headquarters ,

we could very well see some type of "ethnic cleansing". would the army step in ? half heatedly to round them up, but if the reds had the guns, well, dead for sure.

I don't know about that. It seems most of the yellow shirts were/are driven by their love for the King; there's been plenty of evidence to prove that.

And the red shirts have been showing an awful lot of hate towards the government, especially the current PM. They are still bitter about the PAD siege at the airports as well as the military's reluctance to remove them by force. But most of all I think they are sick and tired of being poor, oppressed and disenfranchised by the opulent as well as being treated with indifference (by the bourgeoisie) because of their ethnicity and lack of fair opportunity within a corrupt system.

And I can't tell you how many pro red shirts (especially taxi drivers) who keep insisting to me that there's going to be a civil war here.

Why can't you tell us? And you have spoken to Thais who use the word "insist" and "civil war" I don't think so.

Are you a native English speaker? Maybe I need to teach you present continuous as well as the idiom, I can't tell you how many. Hint, it's a figure of speech. I can't count the number of Thai people I've spoken with who've told me that Thailand is headed for a civil war. Why? Because there are too many to count and yes they do use those exact words (in English) 'civil war.'

[EffectiveAnger]

a huge amount of yellows are fanatical and driven purely by hate.

the reds in contrast are driven by love.

I suppose if things hotted up over the next few months, and another victor bout came along with a truck load of AK47s and rocket launchers, and parked it in the yellows headquarters ,

we could very well see some type of "ethnic cleansing". would the army step in ? half heatedly to round them up, but if the reds had the guns, well, dead for sure.

please both sides have taken drastic actions and both sides prove they are willing to ruin the country to get what they want, both sides act like spoiled little brats.

My sentiments exactly!

[Jingthing]

I can't really predict the future but perhaps Thaksin's magic astrologers know ...

[Travel2003]

a huge amount of yellows are fanatical and driven purely by hate.

the reds in contrast are driven by love.

I suppose if things hotted up over the next few months, and another victor bout came along with a truck load of AK47s and rocket launchers, and parked it in the yellows headquarters ,

we could very well see some type of "ethnic cleansing". would the army step in ? half heatedly to round them up, but if the reds had the guns, well, dead for sure.

dude are you kidding me, are you taksins personal liason to the farang community or something? He's gone and unlikley to ever return to politics, move on. Its a little sad to see grown men or women going on and on about the guy... He was a crook, the new guys are crooks what's the difference..

Good stuff.

Agree.

Getting a bit tired reading about this guy.

Lets talk about the crooks that are here now.

However, Im sure the remark about driven by hate or love must have been a joke, right?

[DonJuanDemarco]

I think Thailand will be passed in twenty years by Vietnam and dwarfed by the rest of the world in terms of economic growth. If Bangkok is in fact going to be underwater than the sky is the limit on how stagnant the country could be.

I don't see any immediate solutions to this "civil war" or the lack of responsibility of politicians or their governing attitudes, not to mention the military's role in politics. it does not look rosey.

[Travel2003]

really challenged militarily by some kind of militia that doesn't exist at the moment

Pattaya seals?

As far as I understand, Thailand is littered with x-special forces guys that would most likely rent out a helping hand, so they can finance their Leo's.

[caf]

a huge amount of yellows are fanatical and driven purely by hate.

the reds in contrast are driven by love.

I suppose if things hotted up over the next few months, and another victor bout came along with a truck load of AK47s and rocket launchers, and parked it in the yellows headquarters ,

we could very well see some type of "ethnic cleansing". would the army step in ? half heatedly to round them up, but if the reds had the guns, well, dead for sure.

I don't know about that. It seems most of the yellow shirts were/are driven by their love for the King; there's been plenty of evidence to prove that.

And the red shirts have been showing an awful lot of hate towards the government, especially the current PM. They are still bitter about the PAD siege at the airports as well as the military's reluctance to remove them by force. But most of all I think they are sick and tired of being poor, oppressed and disenfranchised by the opulent as well as being treated with indifference (by the bourgeoisie) because of their ethnicity and lack of fair opportunity within a corrupt system.

And I can't tell you how many pro red shirts (especially taxi drivers) who keep insisting to me that there's going to be a civil war here.

Why can't you tell us? And you have spoken to Thais who use the word "insist" and "civil war" I don't think so.

Are you a native English speaker? Maybe I need to teach you present continuous as well as the idiom, I can't tell you how many. Hint, it's a figure of speech. I can't count the number of Thai people I've spoken with who've told me that Thailand is headed for a civil war. Why? Because there are too many to count and yes they do use those exact words (in English) 'civil war.'

For obvious reasons most thais will not talk about "civil war"

[Travel2003]

I see some members say that Thailand is already in a state of civil ware, and other that it is sliding towards it.

One member say it is stupid not to believe that Thailand is going to have a civil war.

What exactly is a civil war?

Is it when 2 parts have taken up weapons and we get mass casualties, as in a regular war?

Is it when a country is in a political turmoil?

Is it when a smaller fraction of a big political party take up arms?

Is it when a minority take up arms in order to try to force their way?

Im surprised nobody yet has tried to defined the expression "civil war".

I cant.

In my opinion, which can be wrong of course, the first I listed is a civil war, and I do not believe for a second this will happen.

[DonJuanDemarco]

i do not believe it will happen either. but i do believe that we will see these long periods of economic stagnation at the hands of failing/delayed governments. there seems to be no realistic outlook for cooperation or advancement.

[MrJohnson]

The longest-serving democratically-elected Prime Minister of Thailand, Thaksin, has a lot of good qualities. They love him for those. i don't know much about that secretive kim jung ill chap or woteva his name is

Totally agree - it's easy to love a rich man!

[MrJohnson]

I think Thailand will be passed in twenty years by Vietnam and dwarfed by the rest of the world in terms of economic growth. If Bangkok is in fact going to be underwater than the sky is the limit on how stagnant the country could be.

I don't see any immediate solutions to this "civil war" or the lack of responsibility of politicians or their governing attitudes, not to mention the military's role in politics. it does not look rosey.

Excuse me while i step out and buy a snorkel, mask and flippers!

[DonJuanDemarco]

I think Thailand will be passed in twenty years by Vietnam and dwarfed by the rest of the world in terms of economic growth. If Bangkok is in fact going to be underwater than the sky is the limit on how stagnant the country could be.

I don't see any immediate solutions to this "civil war" or the lack of responsibility of politicians or their governing attitudes, not to mention the military's role in politics. it does not look rosey.

Excuse me while i step out and buy a snorkel, mask and flippers!

well, only a meter under a meter they say. but still, you have to imagine it won't help things much.

[ThNiner]

I can't really predict the future but perhaps Thaksin's magic astrologers know ...

The ones that told him that he was Jao Moon Mueang (king of city's feces) in his past life, I suppose?

[Travel2003]

Ok,

to answer my own question in post #41 about the definition of civil war.

I took the time, and I know for most people Wikipedia is not a reliable source, but here it is.

A civil war is a war between organized groups within a single nation state[1], or, less commonly, between two nations created from a formerly-united nation state[2]. The aim of one side may be to take control of the nation or a region, to achieve independence for a region, or to change government policies[1]. It is high-intensity conflict, often involving regular armed forces, that is sustained, organized and large-scale. Civil wars result in large numbers of casualties and the consumption of large resources. [3]

James Fearon, a scholar of civil wars at Stanford University, states that "a civil war is a violent conflict within a country fought by organized groups that aim to take power at the center or in a region, or to change government policies".[1] Ann Hironaka further specifies that one side of a civil war is the state.[3] The intensity at which a civil disturbance becomes a civil war is contested by academics. Some political scientists define as civil war as having more than 1000 casualties,[1] while others further specify that at least 100 must come from each side.[6] The Correlates of War, a dataset widely used by scholars of conflict, classifies civil wars as having over 1000 war-related casualties per year of conflict. This rate is a small fraction of the millions killed in the Second Sudanese Civil War and Cambodian Civil War, for example, but excludes several highly publicized conflicts, such as The Troubles of Northern Ireland and the struggle of the African National Congress in Apartheid-era South Africa.[3]

The Geneva Conventions do not specifically define the term "civil war". They do, however, describe the criteria for acts qualifying as "armed conflict not of an international character", which includes civil wars. Among the conditions listed are four requirements:[7][8]

The party in revolt must be in possession of a part of the national territory.

The insurgent civil authority must exercise de facto authority over the population within the determinate portion of the national territory.

The insurgents must have some amount of recognition as a belligerent.

The legal Government is "obliged to have recourse to the regular military forces against insurgents organized as military."

Will this happen in Thailand?

I do not think so.

[EffectiveAnger]

For obvious reasons most thais will not talk about "civil war"

Sure they do! Google "Thailand civil war" and see what comes up. Thais are talking about this news every single day. Where were you when the police seized all the guns and high powered weapons from the PAD and the UDD after their highly televised demonstrations? What about the day when the tanks went rolling down the streets of Bangkok back in April? My word, people were calling for a civil war like no tomorrow. Where have you been?! Maybe Thais aren't talking to you about serious matters, but they feel comfortable enough with me to tell me how they really feel and think about this situation. They can pick up really quick that I'm pretty well informed and I'm fairly relaxed when discussing the issue, so I let them rant and rave all they want without passing judgement against them. They have a right to think how they want, I'll listen, no problem.

[caf]

For obvious reasons most thais will not talk about "civil war"

Sure they do! Google "Thailand civil war" and see what comes up. Thais are talking about this news every single day. Where were you when the police seized all the guns and high powered weapons from the PAD and the UDD after their highly televised demonstrations? What about the day when the tanks went rolling down the streets of Bangkok back in April? My word, people were calling for a civil war like no tomorrow. Where have you been?! Maybe Thais aren't talking to you about serious matters, but they feel comfortable enough with me to tell me how they really feel and think about this situation. They can pick up really quick that I'm pretty well informed and I'm fairly relaxed when discussing the issue, so I let them rant and rave all they want without passing judgement against them. They have a right to think how they want, I'll listen, no problem.

Good for you, effective anger. Pray tell us your background.

Civil war may be a good journalistic phrase - which is why you googled it rather than using a dictionary I suppose. Discussing civil war within the Kingdom of Thailand which is a constitutional monarchy borders on lese majeste; That is why most thinking Thais do not discuss it, but by your own admission the Thais you talk to "rant and rave"

Getting personal in a forum is defeatist but I think it says a lot about you that you are very prone to using the technique. So tell us your credentials, debating obviously isn't one of them

[thaihome]

i do not believe it will happen either. but i do believe that we will see these long periods of economic stagnation at the hands of failing/delayed governments. there seems to be no realistic outlook for cooperation or advancement.

Actually, an ineffective government as you describe is good for business as they are then too busy squabbling with each other to hamper business as governments usually do.

TH

[DonJuanDemarco]

i do not believe it will happen either. but i do believe that we will see these long periods of economic stagnation at the hands of failing/delayed governments. there seems to be no realistic outlook for cooperation or advancement.

Actually, an ineffective government as you describe is good for business as they are then too busy squabbling with each other to hamper business as governments usually do.

TH

Nah. It deters foreign investment.

[EffectiveAnger]

Good for you, effective anger. Pray tell us your background.

Civil war may be a good journalistic phrase - which is why you googled it rather than using a dictionary I suppose. Discussing civil war within the Kingdom of Thailand which is a constitutional monarchy borders on lese majeste; That is why most thinking Thais do not discuss it, but by your own admission the Thais you talk to "rant and rave"

Getting personal in a forum is defeatist but I think it says a lot about you that you are very prone to using the technique. So tell us your credentials, debating obviously isn't one of them

I'm sorry, but this is just total B.S. Do you have any idea how many times the constitution has been debated and changed? Every time there is talk about changing the constitution here, there's always some very heated debate and some sort of protest going on. It is very possible to discuss these issues without ever crossing the line of lese majeste. It's not so much the monarchy that is an issue at all, it's the dam_n government that everyone is up in arms about. Civil war is about the running of the government here from north to south. People are just not happy about it.