Malaysia and Thailand, expected to post negative growth this year, will see a strong recovery in 2010 as commodity prices and demand revives, according to Standard & Poor's (S&P).

This was stated in an article, "In The Asean Region It's A Case Of Slow But Steady Improvement", by S&P Asia Pacific chief economist, Dr Subir Gokarn.

It covered the economic outlook for Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines.

In the article released by S&P to the media today, Gokarn said that Asean countries were emerging from a tough first quarter to show gradual improvement in the second, as gross domestic product (GDP) growth improved across the board.

"Despite the bad news and uncertainty in the United States and Europe, timely policy actions and fundamental strength in the regional economies, has helped Asean countries weather the meltdown better and counter a double-digit plunge in exports," he added.

"The second quarter marked the beginning of the recovery, when quarter-on-quarter GDP growth jumped across the board. A shift in demand drivers,from exports to domestic demand,was the primary reason for this rebound," he explained.

He also said the recent rapid fiscal and monetary policy implementation and gradually stabilising global demand had begun to translate into a pick-up in domestic industrial production and exports.

According to Gokarn, the China factor continued to prove particularly important to Asean's performance and outlook.

"Green shoots began to emerge in the region during March and April this year, the same time as when China's domestic investment and consumption was reviving," he said.

Despite the year-on-year double digit decline in Asean's export growth, seasonally adjusted month-on-month export levels, picked up during March and April led by exports to China.

S&P expects Vietnam to outperform the region, leading the pack with close to five per cent growth this year and more than 6.5 per cent in 2010, while Indonesia would continue to show steady improvement.

Overall, S&P said the Asean economies will stabilise this year and see a real recovery in 2010.

http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsindex.php?id=442365

Did S&P predict the crash, anyone that didn't see that coming has no credibility and should have the humility to shut up.