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Best Dividend Growth Stocks


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I have been asked to elaborate on which are the best stocks in Thailand for dividend growth. Here they are: (Sorry the columns didn't come out - but I think you can get the idea)

EGCO: X-Date Div(THB) Div gr

9/3/2009 2.50 5.00 0.00%

3/5/2009 2.50

27/8/2008 2.50 5.00 17.65%

27/03/2008 2.50

9/5/2007 2.25 4.25 13.33%

28/03/2007 2.00

9/7/2006 2.00 3.75 25.00%

29/03/2006 1.75

9/1/2005 1.50 3.00 0.00%

30/03/2005 1.50

9/1/2004 1.50 3.00 20.00%

31/03/2004 1.50

9/3/2003 1.25 2.50 0.00%

4/3/2003 1.25

9/4/2002 1.25 2.50 -16.67%

27/03/2002 1.25

9/6/2001 1.00 3.00 50.00%

4/3/2001 2.00

4/3/2000 2.00 2.00 57.48%

4/5/1999 1.27 1.27

- -

4/2/1997 2.00 2.00 100.00%

28/02/1996 1.00 1.00

HEMRAJ

3/12/2009 0.035

25/11/2008 0.035 0.075 7.14%

4/8/2008 0.040

1/7/2008 0.030 0.070 7.69%

4/5/2007 0.040

10/11/2006 0.030 0.065 18.18%

4/5/2006 0.035

25/11/2005 0.020 0.06 10.00%

4/5/2005 0.035

9/6/2004 0.020 0.05

4/1/2004 0.030

9/4/2003 0.250

KBANK

X-Date Div(THB) Div gr

9/8/2009 0.5 2.00 0.00%

4/10/2009 1.5

9/8/2008 0.5 2.00 14.29%

4/10/2008 1.5

9/10/2007 0.5 1.75 0.00%

4/12/2007 1.25

9/11/2006 0.5 1.75 75.00%

14/03/2006 1.25

15/03/2005 1 1.00

SIRI

X-Date Div(THB) Div gr

3/10/2009 0.3 30.43%

4/3/2008 0.23 76.92%

4/3/2007 0.13 -40.91%

28/03/2006 0.22 37.50%

4/4/2005 0.16 6.67%

30/03/2004 0.15

SPALI

X-Date Div(THB) Div gr

21/8/2009 0.25 0.40 42.86%

23/4/2009 0.15

14/8/2008 0.15 0.28 16.67%

4/8/2008 0.13

21/09/2007 0.12 0.24 -40.00%

4/9/2007 0.12

22/09/2006 0.15 0.40 100.00%

4/10/2006 0.25

26/04/2005 0.2 0.20 -60.00%

16/04/2004 0.5 0.50

TCAP

10/12/2009 0.35 0.95 5.56%

5/11/2009 0.6

10/8/2008 0.3 0.90 12.50%

5/8/2008 0.6

15/10/2007 0.3 0.80 0.00%

5/10/2007 0.5

10/11/2006 0.3 0.80 14.29%

5/9/2006 0.5

11/9/2005 0.3 0.70 -22.22%

5/11/2005 0.4

11/10/2004 0.3 0.90 80.00%

5/11/2004 0.6

6/9/2003 0.5 0.50

That's it. Only six stocks have reasonable dividend growth in the last five years. All the rest were erratic.

BBL paid 3 baht this year. In 1996 it paid 6 baht. Correct me if the stock was split. I don't think so.

PTT had good growth till last year. Perhaps it will recover the trend:

X-Date Div(THB) Div gr

9/2/2009 4 6.00 -52.00%

3/5/2009 2

9/2/2008 6 12.50 19.05%

18/03/2008 6.5

17/09/2007 5 10.50 -26.32%

4/3/2007 5.5

9/7/2006 5 14.25 111.11%

15/03/2006 9.25

17/03/2005 6.75 6.75 68.75%

17/03/2004 4 4.00 40.35%

4/2/2003 2.85 2.85 14.00%

4/4/2002 2.5 2.50

All this data is freely available on the SET website.

Edited by goatfarmer
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The one thing that worries me deeply about investing in Thai stock is the age and health of HRH, when the inevitable happens the stock market will go into freefall, and who knows what else may happen politically to push the SET even lower.

I can fully well see the benefits of having high dividends paid in the currency of the country you live, but at this moment the risks in the share price seem to outweigh any gains made from dividends.

I admit to know little about Thai stocks so maybe somewhat bias, but it does seem fraught with dangers.

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The point about investing in dividend stocks with reliable returns and good growth is that one does not need to focus much attention on the volatility of the stock market. You buy the stocks and hold them. Thai dividend stocks have held up reasonably well throughout the shock of the last year.

The problem is that there are very few, if any, reliable dividend stocks on the SET. Three of the stocks in my list, above, are in the property sector. This is a cyclical sector and not one to build a portfolio on. One should have a good balance of all sectors in a portfolio. Having high dividends without dividend growth is not a good long term prospect. Thus one cannot build a reliable long term dividend portfolio in Thailand. Inflation will eventually erode your income in real terms.

Having dividends paid in the currency of residence is useful only insofar as it removes currency risk. But for that risk, the US is still the best place for a dividend portfolio. (UK might be also. I haven't researched enough. Problem with the UK is that dividends are only paid twice a year. But there is a tax advantage for non-resident investors in the UK stock market.)

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The one thing that worries me deeply about investing in Thai stock is the age and health of HRH, when the inevitable happens the stock market will go into freefall, and who knows what else may happen politically to push the SET even lower.

I can fully well see the benefits of having high dividends paid in the currency of the country you live, but at this moment the risks in the share price seem to outweigh any gains made from dividends.

I admit to know little about Thai stocks so maybe somewhat bias, but it does seem fraught with dangers.

If you are convinced that they will go into free fall then get your picks ready now so when it happens you can strike.

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True but the problem is when HRH goes, that could be just the start of the free fall. Political problems couls send the SET lower and lower.

However is Thaksin comes back I will be sure to buy shares in any company he is involved in.

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  • 3 months later...

Goatfarmer, I'm having a problem understanding the timing of dividends from Thai companies. I've read a lot of financial reports and some of the things I have concluded (I think) are:

1. Normally AGM's are in April. At that time dividends are voted on for the entire last year (Jan 1- Dec31) if you are a holder at the approximate time of the meeting. Paid in May

2. Then, normally, at a Board of Directors meeting in August, dividends for the first 6 months of the current year (Jan 1- June 30) are paid if you are a holder at the approximate time of the meeting. Paid in September

So it looks like they are in effect holding on to your dividend for up to 5 months.

Sound OK? If that's the way things are, welcome to investing in Thailand but as long as you know the rules, you can play the game.

Looking forward to joining in.

finner

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Goatfarmer, I'm having a problem understanding the timing of dividends from Thai companies. I've read a lot of financial reports and some of the things I have concluded (I think) are:

1. Normally AGM's are in April. At that time dividends are voted on for the entire last year (Jan 1- Dec31) if you are a holder at the approximate time of the meeting. Paid in May

2. Then, normally, at a Board of Directors meeting in August, dividends for the first 6 months of the current year (Jan 1- June 30) are paid if you are a holder at the approximate time of the meeting. Paid in September

So it looks like they are in effect holding on to your dividend for up to 5 months.

Sound OK? If that's the way things are, welcome to investing in Thailand but as long as you know the rules, you can play the game.

end of quote

Some stocks pay dividends quarterly, but for a stock that pays a standard twice yearly ,interim and final you have the timeing about right.. the timeing is determined by Thai corporate law, eg 1) shareholders need to first vote on the dividend for the year

2) the shareholder meeting to vote cannot take place untill a certain number of weeks after the shareholders have received the audited accounts and notice of the meeting.

nothing unusual about the Thai system in this respect,if anything the gap between a company declaring a dividend and paying it is quite small by international standards. In the Uk for example not unusual for there to be a 7/8 month gap.

In any event, for a longterm investor, as long as the yearly dividend timetable remains fairly constant it should not matter.

Edited by wordchild
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The one thing that worries me deeply about investing in Thai stock is the age and health of HRH, when the inevitable happens the stock market will go into freefall, and who knows what else may happen politically to push the SET even lower.

I can fully well see the benefits of having high dividends paid in the currency of the country you live, but at this moment the risks in the share price seem to outweigh any gains made from dividends.

I admit to know little about Thai stocks so maybe somewhat bias, but it does seem fraught with dangers.

I think your thinking is flawed, but it is the thinking of many people I know. They all cited reasons why investing in Thailand was more "risky", but I called their bluff when I told them what happened to my holdings in Canada during the summer of 2008. The fact that it happened in a first world country, to me, means that investing in Thailand is no more risky than investing in Canada. And, the fact that the worst thing that could hit a country, IE in the government overthrown and airport shutdowns, happened, and what happened? The currency held strong and the market is still there, so to me that denotes strength.

I have a nice holding of Thai stocks here, and receive dividends that can not compare to anywhere right now. We have a cash position as well, for when HM passes on, if the market drops, we will average down, as we are holding Thai stocks for the long term, 5-10 years. And are being paid to wait, paid quite well I might add.

You've left me curious as to what happened to your stock holdings in Canada during the summer of 2008? I invest only in Canadian dividend growth stocks in my taxable account here in Canada, and I don't recall anything major happening that summer. In fact, during the worst of the recession, in 2009, we had "only one" company in the Financial Sector cut their dividend (by half). Dividend stocks in Canada came through the turmoil in much better shape than Financial equities in either the U.S. or Europe.

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eg 1) shareholders need to first vote on the dividend for the year

2) the shareholder meeting to vote cannot take place untill a certain number of weeks after the shareholders have received the audited accounts and notice of the meeting.

nothing unusual about the Thai system in this respect,if anything the gap between a company declaring a dividend and paying it is quite small by international standards. In the Uk for example not unusual for there to be a 7/8 month gap.

Thanks Wordchild, guess I've been spoiled by the North American system where dividends are paid monthly or quarterly and there is no time wasted by having AGM's to vote on whether or not shareholders are going to pay themselves. Dividends just mysteriously appear and if you don't like it you sell it right away. In the Thai (and UK?) system there seems to be a vested interest to hold on to the stock because by the time you're ticked off about the dividend, you're already halfway through the next time period. Do they ever vote down a dividend?

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Agree, Thai dividends are some of the highest in the world.

I have just entered the market here- done some analysis to identify some 'growth' stocks e.g. those have been showing very positive indicators coupled with rising share price over the last 3 quarters- there are some good ones out there. Of these, the one with the highest dividends is KBANK. My tip for the day:)

Edited by ExpatJ
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eg 1) shareholders need to first vote on the dividend for the year

2) the shareholder meeting to vote cannot take place untill a certain number of weeks after the shareholders have received the audited accounts and notice of the meeting.

nothing unusual about the Thai system in this respect,if anything the gap between a company declaring a dividend and paying it is quite small by international standards. In the Uk for example not unusual for there to be a 7/8 month gap.

Thanks Wordchild, guess I've been spoiled by the North American system where dividends are paid monthly or quarterly and there is no time wasted by having AGM's to vote on whether or not shareholders are going to pay themselves. Dividends just mysteriously appear and if you don't like it you sell it right away. In the Thai (and UK?) system there seems to be a vested interest to hold on to the stock because by the time you're ticked off about the dividend, you're already halfway through the next time period. Do they ever vote down a dividend?

never heard of that , turkeys and christmass comes to mind!

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Please do tell where i can get his Thailand picks from. Thanks.

The problem is that there are very few, if any, reliable dividend stocks on the SET.

I disagree, and I think so does Dr. Marc Faber, as he holds himself, and suggests many Thai companies for the long term. He would not be buying unstable companies here, and I currently hold about 10 of his Thailand picks, which, in my opinion, is a decent size portfolio.

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Please do tell where i can get his Thailand picks from. Thanks.
The problem is that there are very few, if any, reliable dividend stocks on the SET.

I disagree, and I think so does Dr. Marc Faber, as he holds himself, and suggests many Thai companies for the long term. He would not be buying unstable companies here, and I currently hold about 10 of his Thailand picks, which, in my opinion, is a decent size portfolio.

A couple of Faber's Thai stock picks were in the January 25th issue of Barrons, page 6 online. Just copy and paste the title "Barron's 2010 Roundtable, Part Two -- A Few Good Ideas" into Google search and you should be able to access the article.

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Agreed. Political situation looks like it may get out of hand in the next 2-3 weeks. Wouldn't be surprised if everything fell 10%.

I sold half my holdings in the SET today...it was a good day to sell. Tomorrow is also a good day. Next week however may be a struggle. :)

that was dated oct 2009.

ptt may get into fta next year.

having said, political situations may supersede anything else locally.

brace yourself.

:D

This could get expensive for PTT.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aXJlIJN6xOJk

Regards.

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The one thing that worries me deeply about investing in Thai stock is the age and health of HRH, when the inevitable happens the stock market will go into freefall, and who knows what else may happen politically to push the SET even lower.

I can fully well see the benefits of having high dividends paid in the currency of the country you live, but at this moment the risks in the share price seem to outweigh any gains made from dividends.

I admit to know little about Thai stocks so maybe somewhat bias, but it does seem fraught with dangers.

I think your thinking is flawed, but it is the thinking of many people I know. They all cited reasons why investing in Thailand was more "risky", but I called their bluff when I told them what happened to my holdings in Canada during the summer of 2008. The fact that it happened in a first world country, to me, means that investing in Thailand is no more risky than investing in Canada. And, the fact that the worst thing that could hit a country, IE in the government overthrown and airport shutdowns, happened, and what happened? The currency held strong and the market is still there, so to me that denotes strength.

I have a nice holding of Thai stocks here, and receive dividends that can not compare to anywhere right now. We have a cash position as well, for when HM passes on, if the market drops, we will average down, as we are holding Thai stocks for the long term, 5-10 years. And are being paid to wait, paid quite well I might add.

Posted this in another thread already but I think this 10 year chart of the Nasdaq gives a pretty clear picture of just how safe it is to buy & hold stocks in the US.

This chart should scare the heck out of anyone holding any stocks in any country.

The obvious message is: never be affraid to sell your stocks when things get ugly, nobody will stop you from buying them back later when things settle down.

post-6075-1265888820_thumb.png

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Absolutely...and nasty politics and leadership changes are ALWAYS ugly. I'd say don't be afraid to take a small loss - sell out, buy back cheaper and come back stronger. In the longer term it's better to be safe than sorry.

Orion - are you invested in the SET?

The one thing that worries me deeply about investing in Thai stock is the age and health of HRH, when the inevitable happens the stock market will go into freefall, and who knows what else may happen politically to push the SET even lower.

I can fully well see the benefits of having high dividends paid in the currency of the country you live, but at this moment the risks in the share price seem to outweigh any gains made from dividends.

I admit to know little about Thai stocks so maybe somewhat bias, but it does seem fraught with dangers.

I think your thinking is flawed, but it is the thinking of many people I know. They all cited reasons why investing in Thailand was more "risky", but I called their bluff when I told them what happened to my holdings in Canada during the summer of 2008. The fact that it happened in a first world country, to me, means that investing in Thailand is no more risky than investing in Canada. And, the fact that the worst thing that could hit a country, IE in the government overthrown and airport shutdowns, happened, and what happened? The currency held strong and the market is still there, so to me that denotes strength.

I have a nice holding of Thai stocks here, and receive dividends that can not compare to anywhere right now. We have a cash position as well, for when HM passes on, if the market drops, we will average down, as we are holding Thai stocks for the long term, 5-10 years. And are being paid to wait, paid quite well I might add.

Posted this in another thread already but I think this 10 year chart of the Nasdaq gives a pretty clear picture of just how safe it is to buy & hold stocks in the US.

This chart should scare the heck out of anyone holding any stocks in any country.

The obvious message is: never be affraid to sell your stocks when things get ugly, nobody will stop you from buying them back later when things settle down.

post-6075-1265888820_thumb.png

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Absolutely...and nasty politics and leadership changes are ALWAYS ugly. I'd say don't be afraid to take a small loss - sell out, buy back cheaper and come back stronger. In the longer term it's better to be safe than sorry.

Orion - are you invested in the SET?

Right now I am completely flat and only day trade. I think we're at a critical point where the world markets *may* take another tumble.

From a risk perspective though, I don't see much reason to feel safer holding US or EU stocks over Thai stocks. As long as one uses stop loss orders and withdraws his money when the market goes south.

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Day trading is the way to go on the SET. Even in the bearish market of the last 3 weeks, i had a couple of my SET stocks increase by 5% in a day. My new trigger is 5%, at that point i sell, take my profit then reinvest in either a) the same stock if it increases further to 7% or :) the next stock on my preselected watchlist.

I just subscribed to online SCB trading account so i can buy and sell myself with minimal fees.

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Absolutely...and nasty politics and leadership changes are ALWAYS ugly. I'd say don't be afraid to take a small loss - sell out, buy back cheaper and come back stronger. In the longer term it's better to be safe than sorry.

Orion - are you invested in the SET?

Right now I am completely flat and only day trade. I think we're at a critical point where the world markets *may* take another tumble.

From a risk perspective though, I don't see much reason to feel safer holding US or EU stocks over Thai stocks. As long as one uses stop loss orders and withdraws his money when the market goes south.

Yeah I couldn't agree more. I think last week's US employment news aftershocks showed just how shaky the markets still are - barely stabilised and certainly not recovered yet.

On another note, personally I'd say that Thai stocks are more risky a this present time...what with the political situation here. Stay clear this next 10-15 days. After that buy like crazy because there will be some big bargains. :)

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I do know the benefits of trading, as well as the pit falls. If one tries to time the market, they can get chopped, head faked and rack up commissions. You dont see Buffet or Faber trading in and out on a regular basis for a reason. They decide what they are bullish on, in what time frame, and they hold their position.

Our main point for holding Thai stocks and not trying to time the market is the fact that we are bullish on Thailand for the longer term, like I said, 5-10 years. So, we will continue to hold, collect the juicy dividend, and average down if and when there is a significant correction. This is our plan, and we feel confident in it, and sleep well at night. Mainly because we dont have it all in the SET, but are invested in other markets, and other assets, like real-estate, cash and precious metals.

Do you plan to buy stocks when they are expensive and sell them when they are cheap? Does Buffet buy the top of a market and sell the bottom?

If you buy stocks today and you believe they will be worth more in the future, isn't that the definition of timing the market? 5 days or 5 years, timing is timing.

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I do know the benefits of trading, as well as the pit falls. If one tries to time the market, they can get chopped, head faked and rack up commissions. You dont see Buffet or Faber trading in and out on a regular basis for a reason. They decide what they are bullish on, in what time frame, and they hold their position.

Our main point for holding Thai stocks and not trying to time the market is the fact that we are bullish on Thailand for the longer term, like I said, 5-10 years. So, we will continue to hold, collect the juicy dividend, and average down if and when there is a significant correction. This is our plan, and we feel confident in it, and sleep well at night. Mainly because we dont have it all in the SET, but are invested in other markets, and other assets, like real-estate, cash and precious metals.

Do you plan to buy stocks when they are expensive and sell them when they are cheap? Does Buffet buy the top of a market and sell the bottom?

If you buy stocks today and you believe they will be worth more in the future, isn't that the definition of timing the market? 5 days or 5 years, timing is timing.

haha exactly!

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The OPs list of dividend growth stocks is a pretty sorry sight.

There is only one stock there - EGCO - that hasnt cut its dividend at some point.

More to the point 4 of the 6 stocks were virtually bankrupt after the last crisis and had to be recapitalized - Siri, Supali, KTB, and Hemraj. All 4 are 90% off there long term highs.

I would guess the list isnt that complete. I have owned LPN for at least 5 years and I am pretty sure they have increased their dividend every year. I would also be pretty surprised if ADVANC has cut its dividend in the past 10 years.

Approximately a third of listed companies didnt pay a dividend at all last year.

BTW the only stockmarket I invest in is the Thai one and I have been investing in it for 17 years (over which time the SET has gone precisely nowhere.) However there are always plenty of opportunities as the market is not well covered. Also there is so much rubbish that it is not surprising the index has not done well. TA falling from Bt196 on first day of listing to Bt3 knocked 100 points off the index. It is not often that you can find a market where a stock trades at less than 2x its second half earnings (or, unfortunately, where you can buy a stock on 3x earnings only to find it trading on 2x earnings a week later.)

Edited by Abrak
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After a google search looks like I have to register to see the article. Could someone please pm me a free link to the article.

Thanks.

Sorry, I didn't see this until now. I just copied and pasted the title into Google and I still get the complete article for "free" with no registration required.

"Barron's 2010 Roundtable, Part Two -- A Few Good Ideas"

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I found a few more stocks that have grown their dividends over the last 5 years without cutting them at any point.

MBK - actually this is a very good dividend stock

Ratchburi

Bumrungrad Hospital

MBK - given that it is an exceptionally boring stock - is most impressive.

Here is its annual dividend from 2001

2.0, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, 3.25, 3.5, 3.75, 4.0, 4.25

Edited by Abrak
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I do know the benefits of trading, as well as the pit falls. If one tries to time the market, they can get chopped, head faked and rack up commissions. You dont see Buffet or Faber trading in and out on a regular basis for a reason. They decide what they are bullish on, in what time frame, and they hold their position.

Our main point for holding Thai stocks and not trying to time the market is the fact that we are bullish on Thailand for the longer term, like I said, 5-10 years. So, we will continue to hold, collect the juicy dividend, and average down if and when there is a significant correction. This is our plan, and we feel confident in it, and sleep well at night. Mainly because we dont have it all in the SET, but are invested in other markets, and other assets, like real-estate, cash and precious metals.

Do you plan to buy stocks when they are expensive and sell them when they are cheap? Does Buffet buy the top of a market and sell the bottom?

If you buy stocks today and you believe they will be worth more in the future, isn't that the definition of timing the market? 5 days or 5 years, timing is timing.

haha exactly!

haha exactly what??

If I buy stocks today, and believe they will be worth more in the future, its called INVESTING. Buy and hold investing to be precise. Now, when I day-trade commodity futures a few times a night, THAT is timing the markets short term swings.

You could look at the market today (I'm writing at 2pm) - having fallen 6% and buy now and sell in 4-5 weeks.

Or wait another week and buy when it's fallen another 10% and sell in 4-5 weeks.

Timing is not everything I guess...depends how much you want back on your initial investment. :)

I don't mean to offend. I just think the market is ripe for short term trading right now. In more stable times I invest more prudently and go for 'value' stocks but in these times I see a chance to make serious gains...IMHO I think the SET could drop to as low as 640 before recovering. I've sold the majority of my holdings and will start reinvesting in 10 days.

What is everyone keeping an eye on at the moment?

Edited by thecottonmill
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I do know the benefits of trading, as well as the pit falls. If one tries to time the market, they can get chopped, head faked and rack up commissions. You dont see Buffet or Faber trading in and out on a regular basis for a reason. They decide what they are bullish on, in what time frame, and they hold their position.

Our main point for holding Thai stocks and not trying to time the market is the fact that we are bullish on Thailand for the longer term, like I said, 5-10 years. So, we will continue to hold, collect the juicy dividend, and average down if and when there is a significant correction. This is our plan, and we feel confident in it, and sleep well at night. Mainly because we dont have it all in the SET, but are invested in other markets, and other assets, like real-estate, cash and precious metals.

Do you plan to buy stocks when they are expensive and sell them when they are cheap? Does Buffet buy the top of a market and sell the bottom?

If you buy stocks today and you believe they will be worth more in the future, isn't that the definition of timing the market? 5 days or 5 years, timing is timing.

Investment vs. Speculation

We are investing in Thai stocks, as they pay a nice dividend, and that is the reason why. Sure, capital appreciate will be a bonus, but mainly we want the income. So we are not speculating in the true sense of the word, trying to capture short term moves. Timing the market, is not used to describe buy and hold investors, do some research.

By who?

Buffet is known for buying stocks when they are undervalued and at an all time low, AKA the bottom, and holding them for a long period of time. He'll wait for years for buying opportunities to present themselves, and will hold on to his shares for years once he has purchased them because he believes they will appreciate in value. Pure value investing.

I would say that Buffet is the master of long term market timing.

do some research.

If you buy your stocks at any random time without regard for current economic and market conditions and without a thesis on future economic and market conditions, solely for the purpose of collecting dividends, then I concede that you are not a market timer.

But in this case I would suggest you do some research of your own :)

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