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Central bank revises Thailand's economic growth estimate upward

BANGKOK, Oct 30 (TNA) – Bank of Thailand (BoT) Assistant Governor Paiboon Kittisrikangwan on Thursday revealed that the central bank raised its economic growth estimate for this year and next year as it believed the country's economy had already bottomed out and is likely to turn around to grow on a continuing basis.

He said the bank projected Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) would shrink only 2.5-3.5 per cent instead of contracting at the 3-4.5 per cent level forecast earlier.

The Thai economy has been buoyed up by the clear recovery of the global economy, particularly the economy in Asia.

The economy had been also driven by increased exports and the injection of money through the government's Thai Khem Keng (Strong Thailand) Scheme.

However, there remain some risk factors to the economy including global economic volatility, slower-than-targeted budget disbursement, worsening political conflicts, and the court order suspending operations of investment projects in the Mab Ta Put Industrial Estate.

He said the court's injunction against the Mab Ta Put projects had undermined the investment atmosphere and could affect GDP growth next year.

As economic conditions are showing improvement, the bank revised its GDP growth projection for 2010 upward to 3.3-5.3 per cent from the 3-5 per cent projected previously.

Should the problem at Mab Ta Put drag on, GDP is likely to grow only 3.3 per cent.

Nonetheless, he said that exports are expected to contract 12.5-15.5 per cent this year, but to grow 9-12 per cent next year, while imports are forecast to shrink 23-26 per cent this year, but to increase 16.5-19.5 per cent in the year ahead. (TNA)

-- TNA 2009/10/30