Thailand's GDP likely to grow 2.5-3.5% next year, says BAY

BANGKOK, Nov 4 (TNA) – Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) will likely grow some 2.5-3.5 per cent or 3 per cent on average next year, boosted by the global economic recovery, according to a top banker.

Tan Kong Kun, president and CEO of Bank of Ayudhya, revealed the bank is preparing its loan expansion plan for 2010.

In principle, the bank set its loan growth target based on the Thai GDP growth estimate.

As the bank's research division expects the GDP to grow 3 per cent on average for 2010, the bank targeted loan growth at around 6 per cent for next year.

"We believe the global economy has already navigated the economic storm. Its recovery fares well for our country's exports and inflation rates.

With the improving economy and the state-supported economic stimulus measures, the private sector will dare to spend more," said Mr. Tan.

He predicted interest rates would stay unchanged until the end of this year since the inflation rate remains in negative territory at 1 per cent.

So, it is likely the interest rate offered by the bank would begin to change in the second quarter next year.

Mr Tan said the interest rate will be adjusted if the fund mobilisation by the public sector increases to such an extent that affects the liquidity in the system.

The adjustment will take place before the policy interest rate set by the Bank of Thailand (BoT) Monetary Policy Committee is set to rise in the second half of 2010. (TNA)

-- TNA 2009/11/04

ahhh

the worst seems to be over.... just as zoro1 et al predicted.... lol

Thailand's GDP likely to grow 2.5-3.5% next year, says BAY

BANGKOK, Nov 4 (TNA) – Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) will likely grow some 2.5-3.5 per cent or 3 per cent on average next year, boosted by the global economic recovery, according to a top banker.

Tan Kong Kun, president and CEO of Bank of Ayudhya, revealed the bank is preparing its loan expansion plan for 2010.

In principle, the bank set its loan growth target based on the Thai GDP growth estimate.

As the bank's research division expects the GDP to grow 3 per cent on average for 2010, the bank targeted loan growth at around 6 per cent for next year.

"We believe the global economy has already navigated the economic storm. Its recovery fares well for our country's exports and inflation rates.

With the improving economy and the state-supported economic stimulus measures, the private sector will dare to spend more," said Mr. Tan.

He predicted interest rates would stay unchanged until the end of this year since the inflation rate remains in negative territory at 1 per cent.

So, it is likely the interest rate offered by the bank would begin to change in the second quarter next year.

Mr Tan said the interest rate will be adjusted if the fund mobilisation by the public sector increases to such an extent that affects the liquidity in the system.

The adjustment will take place before the policy interest rate set by the Bank of Thailand (BoT) Monetary Policy Committee is set to rise in the second half of 2010. (TNA)

-- TNA 2009/11/04

Maybe it will. Or maybe not. Or maybe higher or lower.

I worked on economic forecasting and know the add-factors, error ranges and the imperfect data. But forecast they must, so this is a passable attempt.

That's accounted by increased public spending.

2-3% sounds ok, but is in fact very poor for Thailand, and would not service its debt.

And as has been noted, this is just a prediction, they've all been over optimistic so far.

It's an economy that is in a lot of trouble IMHO.