Could The Dollar Be In A New Bull Market?

[churchill]

Everybody is betting against it and i am not sure what could cause it but perhaps the $ is due a rebound ?

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/could...rket-94507.aspx

[awd]

The dollar is poised for a rapid recovery in the next six weeks.

[khunjake]

Seriously doubt it..

[neil324]

It will if equities fall, if they carry on rising then no

[chiang mai]

If you promise to deposit large sums of cash into my account I'll tell you the answer

[givenall]

If you promise to deposit large sums of cash into my account I'll tell you the answer

$ or Bth. be careful your answer will be your answer

[churchill]

and ...

So Hated That People Will Hate You Just For Liking It

Few essays I’ve ever written have drawn as much ire as the ones in which I propose that the US Dollar might rally. The US Dollar is indeed hated, so hated that people will hate you just for considering that it might rally.

Virtually every day I receive emails from people asking me about the coming massive US Dollar devaluation or when the Zimbabwe-esque hyperinflation will hit. What’s striking about this is that I receive more of these sorts of emails today (when the Dollar’s at 76 or so) than I did last summer when the Dollar hit a 30-year low of 72.

In fact, the Dollar is so hated that it recently broke a nine-month downtrend and virtually NO ONE noticed. I know you probably think I’m a jerk just for mentioning this. But you can see it for yourself

http://www.gainspainscapital.com/index.php...t-for-liking-it

[flying]

Low 60's next year

Unless a miracle War occurs

Of course a rally or two between now & then would be expected.

Everything jumps once or twice when its head is cut off

I would not be surprised at all by a big jerk

Proceeded by the market losing 300 points one day & a 1000+ soon after.

3rd week of Nov. ?

But low 60's next year is my guess as all the kings horses & all the kings men cannot put it together again

Not on hope & BS alone anyway.

PS: I dont hate dollars at all.

Wish they were what they once were & sorry

our govt has seen fit to allow its demise.

Edited November 6, 2009 by flying

[chiang mai]

If you promise to deposit large sums of cash into my account I'll tell you the answer

$ or Bth. be careful your answer will be your answer

My preference as always is for Bonzongo Beans but if you find the banks have none, USD will do nicely.

[temo1051]

and ...

So Hated That People Will Hate You Just For Liking It

Few essays I’ve ever written have drawn as much ire as the ones in which I propose that the US Dollar might rally. The US Dollar is indeed hated, so hated that people will hate you just for considering that it might rally.

Virtually every day I receive emails from people asking me about the coming massive US Dollar devaluation or when the Zimbabwe-esque hyperinflation will hit. What’s striking about this is that I receive more of these sorts of emails today (when the Dollar’s at 76 or so) than I did last summer when the Dollar hit a 30-year low of 72.

In fact, the Dollar is so hated that it recently broke a nine-month downtrend and virtually NO ONE noticed. I know you probably think I’m a jerk just for mentioning this. But you can see it for yourself

http://www.gainspainscapital.com/index.php...t-for-liking-it

The dollar is due for a rebound. Will it happen? I think so but not a very strong or sustained rebound. The dollar short trade is overcrowded and all those shorts need to cover eventually and should cause a spike. The US is incapable of sustaining the current debt without a weak dollar. The Europeans and Asians need a strong dollar so their products can remain at a competitive price level. A real tug of war going on.

I would like to hear and share views on trading in investing from ex-pats here in Thailand. http://temo1051.blogspot.com/

[flying]

I would like to hear and share views on trading in investing from ex-pats here in Thailand. http://temo1051.blogspot.com/

I see SLV on your blog.

I have watched that one for months now.

If if does pull back in late Nov I may jump in

[sokal]

It will if equities fall, if they carry on rising then no

That is what EVERYONE assumes will happen just because that is what happened in 08. That doesn't sound like a contrarian play to me. Talk about a herd mentality.

[sokal]

and ...

So Hated That People Will Hate You Just For Liking It

Few essays I’ve ever written have drawn as much ire as the ones in which I propose that the US Dollar might rally. The US Dollar is indeed hated, so hated that people will hate you just for considering that it might rally.

Virtually every day I receive emails from people asking me about the coming massive US Dollar devaluation or when the Zimbabwe-esque hyperinflation will hit. What’s striking about this is that I receive more of these sorts of emails today (when the Dollar’s at 76 or so) than I did last summer when the Dollar hit a 30-year low of 72.

In fact, the Dollar is so hated that it recently broke a nine-month downtrend and virtually NO ONE noticed. I know you probably think I’m a jerk just for mentioning this. But you can see it for yourself

http://www.gainspainscapital.com/index.php...t-for-liking-it

"Broke a 9 month down trend"

Where you pricing that in gold or just other fiat currencies ?

[gregb]

The USD will rebound if and only if a short squeeze is encountered. This will happen when a derivatives bomb explodes, as it did last year, equities collapse, and people try desperately to find funds in order to pay off their margin accounts. Paying off margin means paying off debt, thus decreasing the number of dollars in circulation and effecting a rise in the USD.

There is no fundamental reason for the USD to rise ever again except for this. There is no such thing as a bull market for the USD, only a short squeeze. And the US Fed has committed themselves to making sure such "liquidity traps" are avoided in the future. I'm not saying the USD can't go up, but you have to be a high stakes gambler with steel cojones to bet on it.

[morrobay]

Mabey this is wishful thinking but some economists interviewed on Bloomberg have said there is going to be a substantial increase in U.S. interests rates in 2010.

So this would cause dollar appreciation, right ?

[sokal]

Mabey this is wishful thinking but some economists interviewed on Bloomberg have said there is going to be a substantial increase in U.S. interests rates in 2010.

So this would cause dollar appreciation, right ?

[/quote

They would have to start raising interest rates now or 8 months ago if they plan on curbing inflation. Banana Ben has already got the timing wrong, just look at the gold price.

[gregb]

Mabey this is wishful thinking but some economists interviewed on Bloomberg have said there is going to be a substantial increase in U.S. interests rates in 2010.

So this would cause dollar appreciation, right ?

Yes. Raising interest rates in the US (if it actually occurs) will, among other things, start unwinding the USD carry trade. The USD will begin to strengthen. The resulting carnage in society as people have to pay more to service their debt as well as the move into bonds will eventually cause a collapse in equities, resulting in margin calls, which will result in more loans being repaid, which will strengthen the USD even further and a positive feedback loop is established.

As the process feeds on itself and spending and investment dries up, prices will decline, leading to the Fed announcing deflation has returned and a return to quantitative easing, thus depressing the USD again where it can continue its downward spiral.

The strength of the USD will appear as a short blip on a decreasing trend, otherwise known as a USD bubble. Nobody knows where or when it will happen, or how long it will last, but I would not be surprised to see this play out for a short period. It is effectively what occurred in 2008, kicked off by the derivatives crisis.

I'm not much of a gambler. I prefer to play fundamentals rather than short term trends. But if you have courage and know when to get out, there is a chance you can make some money here.

[malomker]

I trade based on wave & cycle theory. The dollar is poised to start a bull market. The latest COT (commitment of traders) report shows that professionals are heavily long the dollar. They have a habit of getting in early but they are rarely wrong (since they are the same people that have the market rigged .

[Naam]

They would have to start raising interest rates now or 8 months ago if they plan on curbing inflation. Banana Ben has already got the timing wrong, just look at the gold price.

since when are "they", respectively Bernanke, planing to curb inflation?

[awd]

Five weeks 'til a massive dollar rebound against the baht. Hold on!

[sokal]

I trade based on wave & cycle theory. The dollar is poised to start a bull market. The latest COT (commitment of traders) report shows that professionals are heavily long the dollar. They have a habit of getting in early but they are rarely wrong (since they are the same people that have the market rigged .

It depends out what you call a bull market. More like a dead cat bounce. Gold is in a true long term bull market and there is no way the dollar can do the same.

[bellagrego]

I am on the opposite side on the dollar. SELL, SELL, SELL. no one in his right mind would buy dollar futures here. Maybe a minor blip against some currencies but the trend is south on most. Deficits are mounting, sales are weak, employment past 10% now. There are no safe havens. Downside risk everywhere. If and when China floats then buy thier paper. They have all the cash.

watch yourself on the money

steer clear of all markets right now

cash is King

Dow correction due down another 10% in next 120 days.

[khunjake]

Seriously doubt it..

New swing lows coming in now under 74.90.

Dollar bulls defying gravity...

[ray23]

Just following the discussion

[Gary A]

Just following the discussion

Me too. If the sky is falling, I'll just wait for it to hit me in the head, but I'll hope for the best.

[ray23]

It is kind of interesting wonder what they said about the baht in 97?

Or when the world stepped in and propped up the Euro.

Thngs do change maybe not as fast as we like but they do change

[Naam]

It is kind of interesting wonder what they said about the baht in 97? Or when the world stepped in and propped up the Euro. Thngs do change maybe not as fast as we like but they do change

when, pray tell, did the world step in to prop up the EUR?

[Naam]

Five weeks 'til a massive dollar rebound against the baht. Hold on!

something like this i hear since three years. yawwwwnnnnnnn.....

[churchill]

The Chinese look as if they may be preparing to loosen their peg to the $ allowing it to strengthen - This presumably will also mean that Asia currencies , inc the Baht , will strengthen against the $- But will it effect other US$ exchange rates ? EUR/$ and GB/$ -?

Asian currency pressure grows on US, China

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/artic...eLblYWOea1wsURg

Edited November 12, 2009 by churchill

[khunjake]

The Chinese look as if they may be preparing to loosen their peg to the $ allowing it to strengthen - This presumably will also mean that Asia currencies , inc the Baht , will strengthen against the $- But will it effect other US$ exchange rates ? EUR/$ and GB/$ -?

Asian currency pressure grows on US, China

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/artic...eLblYWOea1wsURg

Southeast Asian currencies are about 20% undervalued in my view. The SIN, MYR, THB and IDR all should continue to appreciate.. Even if the USD priced in EUR, CHF or GBP begin to stabilize, the Asian currencies as a whole are likely to keep going up against the USD, including the RMB, JPY, KRW. The GDP growth, current account surpluses and much lower debt ratios across in the region make the Western currencies look terrible.