General Anupong Rules Out Coup Next Year

[Publicus]

Yes, it can be argued Thailand is a banana republic but no, it cannot be argued Thailand is not a democracy. There is no legitimate argument that Thailand is not a democracy. There is only the drumbeat that the government shall be destroyed come hel_l or high water to the country. Destroyed of course by the 'true' democrats.      

I leave your well hidden flames, pinches if you will, aside. Try to comment at the content, not the messenger.

"There is no legitimate argument that Thailand is not a democracy"

Really ?

Maybe you should read my messages a little better since I was replying to Animatic's response that the only side, wanting a coup was "Thaksins" (his words).

I responded that there are more possible causes/scenario's (if the coalition would fall for any given reason).

And as long there's always a military threat that Thailand could face a coup at any given time, Thailand can't be considered to be a democracy.

I know there are many variants for Democracies but the military threat is always there in Thailand and as long it's there it's not a proper democracy but at best a flawed democracy*.

dated from 2007 and Thailand being on place 54: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index

Since Thailand dropped on the list of Press Freedom place 54 has, at best, not improved, or would you say it has?

LaoPo

Your post above, I beg to differ, contains the new Thaksin mantra that Thailand is not a democracy. Perhaps you should advise the 30+ million or so Thais who voted in the most recent general election that Thailand is not a democracy. Those voters fair and square got their Thaksin Baht to vote, along with their expected Baht from other political parties. Thailand is a practically certified Third World democracy, but a democracy it is.   

Even in his desperation during his final months as PM, when Thaksin sent a wacko letter to the wacko Pres G.W. Bush, Bush responded in a letter (written by the State Department) that Thailand being a democracy, many twists and turns of events can always be possible and should be expected. The US DEPSTATE as well as the foreign ministries of other democracies know the score in Thailand, especially in respect to the long struggle of Thailand during the 20th century to develop democracy and during the 1970's especially when many Thais lost their lives in the name of democracy (and since). Many Thais take their democracy seriously and, I suspect, would be offended by your Thaksin-farang wrongful assertions.  

Accordingly, perhaps you might consider emailing to the White House to get the views of Pres Obama on the matter of democracy in Thailand, i.e., whether the incumbent US president considers Thailand to be a democracy. Check with Gordo Brown while you're at it, and other leaders of democratic governments, such as Japan, S Korea, Taiwan, India, Australia, France etc etc. Would/Do you really expect them to agree with you and Thaksin in your unity of view? I'd hope not lest your rational and reasonable judgement in this matter be called into serious question.

Again, Thailand as a banana republic yes, as a non or antidemocratic state no.  

I'm confident you'd get a different view, an opposite view to yours, so I wouldn't  expect much action by you on my request, which of course is your perogative.   

(And are you still pounding the drum of the matter of the particular rating of press freedom in Thailand by the one group, a view that has recently been hashed and rehashed as lacking consideration of the overall picture and, as has been pointed out, ranks Thailand in relation/comparason/contrast to other countries where worsening or improving press freedoms directly affect the ranking of Thailand? Give it up, this one annual statistic that is predicated on myriad factors to include those external to Thailand as well.) 

[Garry9999]

It's difficult to envisage Thailand ever breaking this never ending cycle of:

Coup - military installed government - attempt at democracy - coup.

[Publicus]

It's difficult to envisage Thailand ever breaking this never ending cycle of:

Coup - military installed government - attempt at democracy - coup.

Unfortunately and realistically agreed as Thai culture and civilization have proved incapable of producing leaders or institutions which could break this increasing cycle, to step out of a box even Houdini couldn't escape. 

[ferd54]

Thailand MUST be one of the few remaining nations on earth in which generals blithely announce that they don't think they'll overthrow the government this year and people calmly discuss that factoid as they would predictions for the stock market or something.

It's actually outrageous that he would 1). be asked such a question as a matter of course 2). say such a thing as if it were a normal subject of discussion among generals 3) not be vilified and fired for even thinking of it.

Thailand: Through the looking glass with Alice.

[Garry9999]

Thailand MUST be one of the few remaining nations on earth in which generals blithely announce that they don't think they'll overthrow the government this year and people calmly discuss that factoid as they would predictions for the stock market or something.

It's actually outrageous that he would 1). be asked such a question as a matter of course 2). say such a thing as if it were a normal subject of discussion among generals 3) not be vilified and fired for even thinking of it.

Thailand: Through the looking glass with Alice.

Well with 18 coups since 1932, it's a popular sport. Fiji have recently taken up this sport, but they only have a score of 4.

[LaoPo]

Thailand MUST be one of the few remaining nations on earth in which generals blithely announce that they don't think they'll overthrow the government this year and people calmly discuss that factoid as they would predictions for the stock market or something.

It's actually outrageous that he would 1). be asked such a question as a matter of course 2). say such a thing as if it were a normal subject of discussion among generals 3) not be vilified and fired for even thinking of it.

Thailand: Through the looking glass with Alice.

But we still have members saying Thailand is a democracy

LaoPo

[animatic]

People are just reading into Gen. Anupong's statement what the what to hear.

And of course along their alreqady predisposed politrical lines,

not with an open minimally baised reading of the actual translated words on the page.

'He says he will not do a coup this year.'

No he does not say that at all. That is others implying this over and over.

That really is only a meaning placed on top of his slightly ambiguous statement of

'There will not be a coup this year.'

He is not saying he is not planning a coup this year,

he is saying he will prevent any attempts at a coup this year.

A considerable difference in meanings.

Some seem to have English as a 2nd language,

but while being reasonably fluent, don't seem to parse the nuances too well.

Lao Po, your point that others may want a coup is lacking in any basis for the statement,

If you think as so, then state who and why. The motivations beyond the usual greed are nebulous

at least not for anything as momentous and dangerous as a coup, which takes true motivation to maneuver.

The only side with a big enough prize, coupled to desperation and enough motivation is Thaksin's side of the coin.

Regardless if this coin as more than one side, only two really count.

You' general disorder or broken coalition reason doesn't float nor fly.

[Credo]

Prem was in full military uniform as he met the last group of coup makers. The last time I remember him wearing his uniform was around August, 2006 and we know what happened shortly after that.

[Ricardo]

It's difficult to envisage Thailand ever breaking this never ending cycle of:

Coup - military installed government - attempt at democracy - coup.

Unfortunately and realistically agreed as Thai culture and civilization have proved incapable of producing leaders or institutions which could break this increasing cycle, to step out of a box even Houdini couldn't escape. 

Perhaps one might hope at least for fewer coups, and more elections, as a positive step in the right direction, which seems to be the pattern of the past 15-20 years ?

[doggie888888]

There is something fundamentally wrong with a country that claims to be a democracy, when the government apparently needs some statement from an unelected military man about his coup plans! It sounds like any elected government (and consequently the entire country) needs to hold its breath until some unelected General gives his blessings. Surely the issue is not whether the good General rules out the possibility of a coup. The real issue is why the military has the power to do so, and be able to "call the shots" in a so-called)democracy? Are we in a benevolent (depeding on your point of view) military dictatorship or are we in a true democracy?

[RustyYellowDodge]

Perhaps one might hope at least for fewer coups, and more elections, as a positive step in the right direction, which seems to be the pattern of the past 15-20 years ?

Hear hear!

[Thai at Heart]

There is something fundamentally wrong with a country that claims to be a democracy, when the government apparently needs some statement from an unelected military man about his coup plans! It sounds like any elected government (and consequently the entire country) needs to hold its breath until some unelected General gives his blessings. Surely the issue is not whether the good General rules out the possibility of a coup. The real issue is why the military has the power to do so, and be able to "call the shots" in a so-called)democracy? Are we in a benevolent (depeding on your point of view) military dictatorship or are we in a true democracy?

And to crown it all they claim to have the country's best interests at heart as though acting from some benevolent generous stand point.

Or did we not notice the enormous increase in their budget about 10 seconds after they took power last time. I really don't understand why they are held in such high esteem.

[LaoPo]

Lao Po, your point that others may want a coup is lacking in any basis for the statement,

Please Animatic: do NOT twist my words. I DID NOT say that others may want a coup

YOU wrote: "The only side that could want a coup is Thaksins."

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/General-Anup...04#entry3238704

I wrote:

"If a democratic process by means of elections (if the present coalition would fall over whatever reason) would bring a party and/or leader who's not favored by those parties, above, there WILL be another coup in 2010, whether we like it or not."

From: http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/General-Anup...32#entry3238532

And, 2 posts later I wrote:

"There are more possible causes for a coup if the coalition falls to pieces and I painted the scenario above.

Too many democracy examples of failing coalitions. They happen all the time and Thailand would be no exception to the rule, not even being a democracy.

The only difference between Thailand and real democracies are the Generals."

From: http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/General-Anup...98#entry3238898

You really shouldn't take my words out of their context and make it your own story of what I wrote.

If you're a man you apologize.

LaoPo

[baht&sold]

The only difference between Thailand and real democracies are the Generals."

'THE' Generals? You must be generalising (no apology necessary, I'm not so 'high and mighty' as thou;)

So, when you refer to 'THE' Generals, are you referring to the legions of old generals being dusted off by Mr Thaksin (for a probable coup 'attempt' to come) or the 'all-out' red-rally to come before Mr Thaksin's 76 billion baht verdict mid-feb, led by Puea Thai General Panlop (former deputy of the Internal Security Operations Command;)

Or, perhaps you were referring to the extremely professional regiment who peacefully, miraculously, gratefully saved Bangkok and poor people in Din Daeng from being burnt down and blown up by Mr Thaksin's reds last April?

Obfuscate away LaoPo, all prattle and pith in the face of what's *REALLY* going down (and you know it).

[LaoPo]

The only difference between Thailand and real democracies are the Generals."

'THE' Generals? You must be generalising (no apology necessary, I'm not so 'high and mighty' as thou;)

So, when you refer to 'THE' Generals, are you referring to the legions of old generals being dusted off by Mr Thaksin (for a probable coup 'attempt' to come) or the 'all-out' red-rally to come before Mr Thaksin's 76 billion baht verdict mid-feb, led by Puea Thai General Panlop (former deputy of the Internal Security Operations Command;)

Or, perhaps you were referring to the extremely professional regiment who peacefully, miraculously, gratefully saved Bangkok and poor people in Din Daeng from being burnt down and blown up by Mr Thaksin's reds last April?

Obfuscate away LaoPo, all prattle and pith in the face of what's *REALLY* going down (and you know it).

YOU are capitalizing the word THE Generals and trying to make a fuzz out of it.

But if you read correctly I am concluding a difference between real democracies and Thailand; Generals are the tools who can overthrow a democratic process and who they are is not important now.

The threat is important that "Generals" can make the difference in Thailand.

Generals in real democracies can't.

Democracy itself makes the difference, not Generals, in any given democracy.

LaoPo

[animatic]

I still don't find your reasoning sufficient for a 2010 coup, by non-Thaksinistas.

Partly because the MP's terms are not up and another coalition will be put into place.

TIT; there is nothing in a coalition here that money can't fix....

I twisted nothing,

I said simply I didn't find sufficient reasoning.

Edited January 4, 2010 by animatic

[LaoPo]

I still don't find your reasoning sufficient for a 2010 coup, by non-Thaksinistas.

Partly because the MP's terms are not up and another coalition will be put into place.

TIT; there is nothing in a coalition here that money can't fix....

I twisted nothing,

I said simply I didn't find sufficient reasoning.

You are stubborn but this is what you wrote:

"Lao Po, your point that others may want a coup is lacking in any basis for the statement,..."

I NEVER wrote that others may want a coup as explained before, but you now show who and what you are denying your own words and twisting mine.

If you can live with that, fine, up to you but it seems you're not the man I hoped for: A Gentleman who's not afraid of saying Mea Culpa.

I'm not afraid to offer my apologies when I'm wrong. I've been wrong many times in my life, also on this forum and offered my apologies, and still learning but one needs to be a man, humble enough in his courage to offer apologies.

It was Confucius who wrote:

"Faced with what is right, to leave it undone shows a lack of courage"

I'll have a bit of fresh Bamboo.

LaoPo

[baht&sold]

It was Confucius who wrote:

"Faced with what is right, to leave it undone shows a lack of courage"

I'll have a bit of fresh Bamboo.

It is pure common sense which writes:

"WHO" is right will always mew to try to obfuscate "WHAT" is right (for SELF benefit, every time)

Obfuscate away, whinge to the wind and relish your fading 'short-time' bamboozle.

(must be completely terrifying to see one's Walter Mitty myopic 'utopia' shrinking as a 'mere' nation tries to evolve)

Chok dee Thailand, sadly you'll need it (especially before mid-Feb and Mr Thaksin's 76 billion baht court date)

Edited January 4, 2010 by baht&sold

[aras]

One camp consists of traditional loyalists, another follows the money especially closely and other camps range from the indifferent to the weathermen who watch which way the wind blows.

So you mean one part is he traditional loyalist and the rest have no idea what the f...they think or want but only want the money etc

[jayboy]

Or, perhaps you were referring to the extremely professional regiment who peacefully, miraculously, gratefully saved Bangkok and poor people in Din Daeng from being burnt down and blown up by Mr Thaksin's reds last April?

This would make a certain amount of sense if one lived in an alternative time stream.But in the real world it's just comical hyperbole.On a serious point although in fact there was no clash between demonstrators and army in April, it is clear that elites the world over can usually rely on army units to crush popular dissent.

[mca]

it is clear that elites the world over can usually rely on army units to crush popular dissent.

Now now jayboy. Get your facts straight. Thai history has shown these people to be both traitors and communists. Popular dissent my arse.

[Siripon]

Or, perhaps you were referring to the extremely professional regiment who peacefully, miraculously, gratefully saved Bangkok and poor people in Din Daeng from being burnt down and blown up by Mr Thaksin's reds last April?

This would make a certain amount of sense if one lived in an alternative time stream.But in the real world it's just comical hyperbole.On a serious point although in fact there was no clash between demonstrators and army in April, it is clear that elites the world over can usually rely on army units to crush popular dissent.

In the recent poll a large majority of those polled wanted Thaksin to stop his street protests. That percentage will no doubt increase if the reds seriously disrupt Bangkok again.

The result in Mahasarakham wasn't very comforting for the Pheua Thai- Cambodia party, a very narrow win in a supposed stronghold.

[animatic]

I still don't find your reasoning sufficient for a 2010 coup, by non-Thaksinistas.

Partly because the MP's terms are not up and another coalition will be put into place.

TIT; there is nothing in a coalition here that money can't fix....

I twisted nothing,

I said simply I didn't find sufficient reasoning.

You are stubborn but this is what you wrote:

"Lao Po, your point that others may want a coup is lacking in any basis for the statement,..."

I NEVER wrote that others may want a coup as explained before, but you now show who and what you are denying your own words and twisting mine.

If you can live with that, fine, up to you but it seems you're not the man I hoped for: A Gentleman who's not afraid of saying Mea Culpa.

I'm not afraid to offer my apologies when I'm wrong. I've been wrong many times in my life, also on this forum and offered my apologies, and still learning but one needs to be a man, humble enough in his courage to offer apologies.

It was Confucius who wrote:

"Faced with what is right, to leave it undone shows a lack of courage"

I'll have a bit of fresh Bamboo.

LaoPo

I wasn't quoting you, and so I was not twisting your words.

I was inferring that your statement meant thus and such to my reading of it.

And that I didn't think that the point your seemed to be making was correct.

Maybe your writing wasn't clear enough to make me think otherwise?

Simply put; 'you gave no basis for your statement that backed it up', IMO.

Adding basis later doesn't change the original statement, just floating in free air like a feather.

And nothing says I should take any pronouncement on face value alone.

[animatic]

The only side that could want a coup is Thaksins.

Incorrect.

You don't want to bet too much money on that....you might loose.

There are more possible causes for a coup if the coalition falls to pieces and I painted the scenario above.

Too many democracy examples of failing coalitions. They happen all the time and Thailand would be no exception to the rule, not even being a democracy.

The only difference between Thailand and real democracies are the Generals.

LaoPo

IN this your statement "Incorrect"

implies quite clearly that others than the 'Thaksin Side',

would want a coup in 2010.

Secondly "possible causes" means nothing,

if there are not PEOPLE behind the coup to make it happen.

Since I NEVER quoted you, only tried to parse your rather obscured meaning in this post,

that directly stated that ; I am "incorrect", then you have made a statement with no backing facts.

Just some vague general scenario.

And since your point directly countradicted mine, demanding an apology for not

just rolling over as subservient supplicant to your intellect is quite disingenuous.

[animatic]

It doesn't seem likely Newin would find welcoming arms from Thaksin if Thaksin's minions managed a re-coup of power.

So I can not see that the current coalition is so much in disarray in this possible eventuality.

The only side that could want a coup is Thaksins. Newin benefits more from elections minus Thaksin,

and with Dems than anything resembling a Thaksin lead government.

So Suthep can expect cooperation if push comes to shove vs Thaksin's probable attempts at treasonous action.

Oh and please in future;

add all the stuff around my words when you quote me.

Such as what is bold highlighted above.

Since you ignored the surrounding text, it made it possible for twist my words

just enough to try and make your less than clear rebuttal argument.

In context my point comes across more as a well reasoned argument,

and not a hyperbolic statement for you to skewer at will.

Edited January 5, 2010 by animatic

[xminator]

There will be no coup in 2010. Simply because the people that hold the power to do so is very happy with where they have the country right now.

[Asa]

There will be no coup in 2010. Simply because the people that hold the power to do so is very happy with where they have the country right now.

Cannot agree more with you.

Giving it a thought, why does he has to tell us there will be no coup, while there should not be one at all. Does the General hold it that a coup is an ARMY regular event, and need to be addressed if one will be skipped it this year?

[wayfarer108]

There is something fundamentally wrong with a country that claims to be a democracy, when the government apparently needs some statement from an unelected military man about his coup plans! It sounds like any elected government (and consequently the entire country) needs to hold its breath until some unelected General gives his blessings. Surely the issue is not whether the good General rules out the possibility of a coup. The real issue is why the military has the power to do so, and be able to "call the shots" in a so-called)democracy? Are we in a benevolent (depeding on your point of view) military dictatorship or are we in a true democracy?

You must be new in Thailand. It has been this way since 1932. Even in the 60s everyone was saying, 'no more coups.' The cycle (coup -> new constitution -> elections -> protests - coup) was set in the 1930s and we see no signs of a weather change from any direction.

[Davidusaf99]

The difference in the 2006 coup, is not in Thailand, but external to Thailand - the 24 hr news television. This has increased scrutiny to a new level. I think that the Thai military brass themselves, were unprepared for the huge international backlash against their actions, and then, saw how poorly "their man" fared, when tasked with running the government. I won't say they have "learned their lesson" because history tells us that things might happen this way again, but the hope is that there was some learning going on, and that the 2006 coup will actually be, the last coup.

[animatic]

There will be no coup in 2010. Simply because the people that hold the power to do so is very happy with where they have the country right now.

As well they might be.

But that's not the message.

This message from Anupong was not directed at the government, reassuring that their seats were secure,

but at the Thaksin crew of red generals and assorted red and PTP staff moving their chess pieces into place

for the coming battle, or at very least a threat of battles to counter the VERY impending financial court decision.

He said he is watching their moves closely to prevent an attempted coup from happening.

That is a logical interpretation of his words,

in relation to the current moves from the other side lately.