February: A Month Of Foul-smelling Political Revulsion

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THAI TALK

February: A Month of foul-smelling political revulsion

By Suthichai Yoon

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- WHY ARE WE hearing predictions of another crisis threatening the political landscape? This time it's being dubbed the "February Turmoil".

My response to this question is simply this: Political chaos leading to violent confrontation would benefit certain groups of people in political circles.

In other words: If you want to know who's plotting to throw the country into such a disastrous state of affairs, then find out who would gain most from a nation torn apart by an outbreak of violence that could deteriorate into a civil war.

More specifically, on a related issue, if you are wondering why there has been a rash of rumours about a possible coup, ask yourself: Who gains the most from spreading this speculation?

Would the Abhisit government stand to gain if a coup should take place? Would the powers-that-be tighten their hold on power if violence should break out on the streets?

On the other hand, would the military establishment gain an enhanced reputation as a professional institution if the Army chief or one of his deputies (as the persistent speculation has it) should decide to take things into their own hands?

Army chief Anupong Paochinda stated for the umpteenth time this week, "I repeat, there's no coup plan," adding that rumours to this effect had been started by "those wanting to divide the country".

My take is much simpler: The rumours were initiated and kept alive by those who were using the Army to mobilise people to put pressure on the judiciary leading up to the February 26 court verdict on Thaksin Shinawatra's Bt76 billion in frozen assets.

It's not an anti-coup campaign, per se. In fact, one school of thought even argues that Thaksin would in fact stand to gain from another coup.

Because of that, some red-shirt leaders were even quietly praying that some wayward Army officers would be dumb enough to attempt a putsch. That would give Thaksin the excuse to call for a popular uprising, handing him the justification to set up a "government-in-exile".

But for Thaksin's strategists, first things first. The immediate concern is February 26. Any instigation to topple Abhisit and launch a ploy to return to power can wait for a few weeks. The name of the game is how to employ both threats and pressure against those in the judicial branch who are in a position to influence the outcome of the legal process.

Therefore, for the troublemakers, plotters and instigators, the idea of turning February into a month of great horror isn't based on the fear of a real coup. It's about "coup rumours".

A real coup happens without advance warning. But coup rumours, apart from aborting a possible revolt, could be useful as a mob mobilisation tool.

And if making repeated, heated statements about a coup begins to draw cynical reactions from critics, simply hurl a few bags of excrement and fermented fish at the PM's house.

That will ensure that February becomes the "month of foul-smelling horror".

-- The Nation 2010-02-04

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[lensta]

Ya know, I don't think that I have ever seen the nation publish a political piece that wasn't pro Democrats, pro PAD / yelow shirts and pro Abhasit

[Siripon]

They hit the nail on the head though, who would benefit from a coup?

Only Thaksin with his already formed government-in-exile, citing his mantra 'true democracy!'

The problem is both the army and the government have seen through him yet again.

Failure number 75.

[animatic]

Ya know, I don't think that I have ever seen the nation publish a political piece that wasn't pro Democrats, pro PAD / yelow shirts and pro Abhasit

Incorrect.

No. They don't do Pro-Thaksin pieces at all.

Well so rarely as to be irrelevant do his few good points get brought up

They absolutely do print;

very critical of PAD, and very critical of PAD/Yellows pieces regularly.

Don't confusing being down on Thaksin 95%,

with being hard on Dems in Gov. in an even handed way...

It's no love fest, they get taken to task much of the time.

The Dems do not get a free pass from The Nation,

but Thaksin gets none at all. He earned it over years.

[animatic]

...who would benefit from a coup?

Only Thaksin with his already formed government-in-exile, citing his mantra 'true democracy!'

The problem is both the army and the government have seen through him yet again.

Failure number 75.

I have been saying about the same thing for a few weeks now.

Maybe The Nation reads ME?

Edited February 4, 2010 by animatic

[Thai at Heart]

More specifically, on a related issue, if you are wondering why there has been a rash of rumours about a possible coup, ask yourself: Who gains the most from spreading this speculation?

The owners of the Nation possibly?

[geriatrickid]

More specifically, on a related issue, if you are wondering why there has been a rash of rumours about a possible coup, ask yourself: Who gains the most from spreading this speculation?

The owners of the Nation possibly?

And their friends.

On the whole, the situation is looking grim. Sort of right where the military would like it to be.

[rixalex]

Ya know, I don't think that I have ever seen the nation publish a political piece that wasn't pro Democrats, pro PAD / yelow shirts and pro Abhasit

Yeah well, go back a few years and you'll find they were publishing lots of pro-TRT stuff. The Nation hasn't suddenly become pro one particular side, it has always been that way - the only difference is now they happen to be pro the side you seem to be against.

If you genuinely care about balance in journalism - not just reading views that happen to support your view - well then come back in a few years time when the pendulum has swung in a more personally favourable direction, as no doubt it will, and complain then. Somehow doubt you will.

[jdinasia]

More specifically, on a related issue, if you are wondering why there has been a rash of rumours about a possible coup, ask yourself: Who gains the most from spreading this speculation?

The owners of the Nation possibly?

And their friends.

On the whole, the situation is looking grim. Sort of right where the military would like it to be.

Ummm other than The Nation reporting what people are talking about. Reporting what is said from Red stages etc .... and thus getting a possible increase in circulation and the subsequent advertising sales, What would be the gain?

Who are The owner's friends? and how do they benefit?

Why would the military like it to be this way?

Why wouldn't there be rumors when the Reds shout it from stage daily?

If today's story about the "People's Army of Thailand" prove to be true, that would tell much of who would be seeking a coup, wouldn't it?

[brahmburgers]

Didn't we get the same sort of predictions leading up to November last year?

I recall reading how the Reds were gearing up for a final putsch, and all heck would break loose, and fighting in the streets et. al.

Well, didn't happen. The Reds tried to organize a rally, but it fizzled out. A flawed petition was handed to gov't authorities, and it got filed away in Mummified Archives as most things do, which land on a bureaucrat's desk.

The boys crying 'wolf' (writers at Nation newspaper) for February will again be found to be ....well, crying wolf.

If the best T can do is deputize a loose cannon to lob a grenade (or a bag of shit) in someone's front yard, then that's a pretty sad indication of T's might. Heck, If I do as much - go downtown and buy some firecrackers, put it in a sack of shit, and lob it over someone's residence wall. ....would I then be a major political player - someone to be reckoned with on a national level - causing Thais to quake in their sandals?

Edited February 4, 2010 by brahmburgers