Thailand's Economic Recession Is Over

[kuffki]

This finance minister is not to be trusted. I think he's incompetent.

Is there any reasoning or justification behind either of those accusations or are they simply incredibly stupid comments that I have demeaned myself replying by to.

This same finance minister confirmed and advised German media just the other week that unless some tax changes are made right now, Thai government will be bankrupt in 2 years.

So if the economic recession is over but the government is about to go bankrupt than how would you call that situation/crisis?

In my personal opinion Thailand slept through the crisis by creating fake figures and rates, once the reality kicks in and it will very very soon, Thailand may just enter the biggest recession they have ever had.

Even looking at all the neighbors in the region, all other country's suffered and their currency's dropped and some like Vietnam and Cambodia have devalued currency further 1-2 times to ensure stability, while Thailand did otherwise and increased the value, which only pushes away long term investors

[Gambles]

This finance minister is not to be trusted. I think he's incompetent.

Is there any reasoning or justification behind either of those accusations or are they simply incredibly stupid comments that I have demeaned myself replying by to.

This same finance minister confirmed and advised German media just the other week that unless some tax changes are made right now, Thai government will be bankrupt in 2 years.

So if the economic recession is over but the government is about to go bankrupt than how would you call that situation/crisis?

In my personal opinion Thailand slept through the crisis by creating fake figures and rates, once the reality kicks in and it will very very soon, Thailand may just enter the biggest recession they have ever had.

Even looking at all the neighbors in the region, all other country's suffered and their currency's dropped and some like Vietnam and Cambodia have devalued currency further 1-2 times to ensure stability, while Thailand did otherwise and increased the value, which only pushes away long term investors

In my humble opinion there are major risks - although these may be significant but relatively short to medium term. However that's only my opinion; this is what an expert who recently visited the LoS thinks -

(fundstrategy.co.uk/features/diary/fund-managers-diary/1007066.article)

Jeremy Charlesworth is the chief investment officer of Moonraker Fund Management and manages the firm’s Commodities and Global Opportunities funds. His diary runs from January 23-29.

Saturday My flight touches down at Bangkok airport 30 minutes early. My exit through the clean, spacious airport is quick and civilised. But the new Airport Rail Link is still under evaluation and passenger trips will not start until March so off to the taxi rank. Two hours later I check in and turn in for the night.

Sunday Walk the busy streets. No signs of recession here. Late afternoon I meet a hedge fund manager. The Thai story remains intact: terrific demographics and low leverage among corporates and consumers. Ever-younger Thais buying their first homes and needing household goods should keep the retail sector buoyant. But the economy is too dependent on exports. Politics and governance concerns still keep foreign investors on the sidelines.

Monday First engagement today is an interview with Thai newspaper The Nation, which wants to know my views on the global situation. Then a series of presentations to consultants at MBMG, the biggest wealth advisory group in Bangkok. The afternoon has a special treat–I see Oliver Stone [an American film director] present to the Foreign Correspondents Club [FCCT], where he delivers a scathing description of the decline of the Anglo-Saxon world since 2000 and in particular, the tinkering with the US constitution, which could cause America to fall from within.

”The region is full of cash, the shops are full and investment opportunities abound”

Tuesday I am interviewed by some broadcast journalists who explain in hushed tones the political quagmire in Thailand. In the evening I am on a panel at the FCCT with an economist and a representative from the Thai Monetary Authority. It emerges that Thailand must reform its tax system if it is to compete with neighbours in attracting foreign manufacturers and supplying lower-cost commodities. Given the politics, it is also no surprise the Thai stockmarket trades at a 30% discount.

Wednesday It is a travel day and after my flight I arrive at my hotel in Singapore at 5.30pm. I have dinner with an old contact who now works for a large bank. He is sceptical about the bank bail-outs. He says it would have been better giving the money to consumers and forcing them to pay off debt. Consumers would have been de-leveraged and the money would still have gone to the banks