The Thai Baht is moving on judgement day

[bangon04]

This afternoon £1 = 49.8 Baht at Bangkok Bank for me

Soon, the other half will have to start selling herself to pay the bills

Can anyone explain why the baht appears to hold steady (or even appreciate) whenever there is major civil unrest in Thailand (as was the case during the Songkran riots in Bangkok last year), whereas the £ seems to nosedive every time Gordon Brown sneezes?

actually it is whenever Alistair Darling opens his mouth on camera. Hence the famous phrase:

"Shut up, Darling!"

[george]

Update:

In other words, the court suspects nobody was paying money for real when it comes to those shares transfers.

[george]

BANGKOK, February 26, 2010 (AFP) - Thailand's top court Friday quashed several arguments by lawyers for Thaksin Shinawatra as it read out a crucial verdict on whether to strip the former premier of his 2.3-billion-dollar fortune.

Thousands of troops and police were deployed ahead of the Supreme Court ruling on proceeds from the sale of the fugitive tycoon's telecoms firm, which have been frozen since the 2006 coup that toppled Thaksin.

Thaksin addressed his backers in Thailand via videolink from Dubai during the verdict, dubbed "Judgement Day" by local media due to concerns that it could fuel the turmoil that has riven the kingdom for the last four years.

The nine judges unanimously rejected arguments by Thaksin's lawyers that Thailand's attorney general was not authorised to bring charges against Thaksin of abusing his power and becoming "unusually rich".

They also dismissed claims that the court was unqualified to deal with the case and that the examination of Thaksin's assets by an anti-graft commission after the putsch was illegitimate.

The judges earlier arrived in bulletproof cars and started reading out their findings at 1:30 pm (0630 GMT), but were expected to take at least four hours to complete the verdict, finishing after Thai markets close.

The defence had argued during the case that the proceeds from the sale of his Shin Corp firm to Singapore's Temasek Holdings in January 2006 belonged to his family members, and not to him or his ex-wife.

The defence also said that the cash did "not come from conflict of interest neither it gained from abuse of power".

No members of his family were at court.

Around 450 police in riot gear guarded the court but there were only around a dozen protesters from his so-called "Red Shirt" movement outside, and fewer than 100 at another protest site in the capital.

Thailand's media has whipped up a frenzy ahead of the verdict, counting down to the day and reporting rumours of a possible coup against Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

The government says up to 35,000 police and soldiers are on alert across the country. Security was also tight around Abhisit's office and the government said it had prepared several safe houses for him.

Twice-elected Thaksin, who is living in Dubai to avoid a two-year jail term for corruption, denied the accusations against him.

"I want to reaffirm that I and my family earned all of the money with our hard work, brains, and sweat. We have never been corrupt as accused," he said on Twitter early Friday.

In a video speech to hundreds of Red Shirts at the headquarters of the Puea Thai opposition party, he said: "My morale is high now."

"Today is a very significant day and a turning point, not only for my family but for Thailand's judicial and political history," he said.

The judges have various options, such as ruling that the government should confiscate all or none of Thaksin's wealth, or that it should take only part of the money, for example the portion he earned after taking power.

The case goes to the heart of the rifts that have opened up in Thai society since the coup.

The Red Shirts, largely from his stronghold in Thailand's impoverished north and northeast, loved his populist policies and accuse the current government of being an unelected elite that has hijacked their democratic rights.

The tycoon's opponents in the Bangkok-based circles around the palace, military and bureaucracy accuse Thaksin of being corrupt, dictatorial and of threatening Thailand's widely revered monarchy.

"Thailand is dreading the Supreme Court's verdict..." analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak wrote in the Wall Street Journal, saying that the "only certainty is that no one will be satisfied".

The main Red Shirt movement says it will hold off mass protests until mid-March. Red Shirt riots at an Asian summit and in Bangkok in April 2009 left two people dead and scores injured.

-- ©Copyright AFP 2010-02-26

Published with written approval from AFP.

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[mccw]

Am I the only one waiting for the baht to take a whacking great hit against the pound so I can transfer some money at more than 50 bhat to the pound.

Pound and Euro have been tanking since late last year. Lets hope a little "hiccup" is in the wind!

the pound is nose diving again this week mate,

unfortunately the baht is now linked to the US dollar,

unlikely to ever get above 50 to the pound,......ouch....

Most banks cash advance about bht52 to the pound.

[dunrudin]

The Baht is moving right now, that's for sure. Every time I refresh the page on xe.com I get a new price. Currently trending stronger went from 33.11 per USD to 33.0846 in the last fifteen or so minutes.

It never moves this fast. Gonna be a wild ride today, I don't know where it is headed but I'd love to see us at 34:1 by tomorrow morning, entirely possible I think.

Yes, it seems to be doing similar things with other currencys inc AUD.

Where is the info coming from re: the AUD? Looks pretty much the same to me apart from a small spike on Tuesday.

[alfieconn]

This afternoon £1 = 49.8 Baht at Bangkok Bank for me

Soon, the other half will have to start selling herself to pay the bills

Can anyone explain why the baht appears to hold steady (or even appreciate) whenever there is major civil unrest in Thailand (as was the case during the Songkran riots in Bangkok last year), whereas the £ seems to nosedive every time Gordon Brown sneezes?

Just my idea, sterling is a major currency where as the baht isn't, plus being as Thailand is known as a volatile and fairly unstable country this is already factored into the currency thus any unrest etc is no great surprise and therefore doesn't affect the currency.

[chiang mai]

Can anyone explain why the baht appears to hold steady (or even appreciate) whenever there is major civil unrest in Thailand (as was the case during the Songkran riots in Bangkok last year), whereas the £ seems to nosedive every time Gordon Brown sneezes?

Some folks have missed this so posted again:

The Central Bank, BOT, is actively engaged in keeping the Thai Baht within certain limits - those limits so they say are determined as the midpoint of a basket of regional currencies, that way the baht is deemed to be competitive within the region. THB is not a major currency in Forex terms so it doesn't take a lot of money to control its range, having said that, BOT has amassed a huge pile in foreign currency reserves (USD 135 bill) as it has sold Baht and bought USD and some of that has accrued from Forex activity.

The UK on the other hand, BOE, has a stated policy of not intervening in currency markets because the Pound is a major currency on the Forex market and the stated aim is to late market forces determine the true and appropriate level of the Pound, that's why when Merv speaks, the bottom falls out, every time.

[YanTree]

whoops wrong thread...

Edited February 26, 2010 by YanTree

[johnsjourney]

Is the OP kidding? If you want to see currency movements see the pound to baht, which was 75 just 5 years ago, now 50 and falling about 1% a day. 0.01 of a baht is hardly significant movement unless you're leveraged 1000x:1

[binky]

Baht 5 year trend: http://tinyurl.com/baht-5yr-trend

[khunstuart]

Anybody know a place to see currency charts like you can see for stocks on finance.google.com?

I know lots of place to get the current price but I'd like to see the trend line.

i use this website

http://www.gftforex.com/resources/

[Naam]

The Baht is moving right now, that's for sure. Every time I refresh the page on xe.com I get a new price. Currently trending stronger went from 33.11 per USD to 33.0846 in the last fifteen or so minutes. It never moves this fast. Gonna be a wild ride today, I don't know where it is headed but I'd love to see us at 34:1 by tomorrow morning, entirely possible I think.

Yes, it seems to be doing similar things with other currencys inc AUD.

keep on dreaming. bid rate when the markets closed yesterday was 32.92.

[Bizz]

the dollar is here to stay and will fluctuate up and down.

there will be occasional bouts of nervousness in global financial markets that will cause the dollar to rise, the dollar will continue to fall relative to the euro, the Japanese yen, and even the Chinese yuan. this decline in the dollar exchange rate is necessary to shrink the very large trade deficit that the US has with the rest of the world.

if you Consider what a decline of the dollar relative to the yuan would mean for the Chinese. If the Chinese now hold $1 trillion in their official portfolios, a 12% rise in the yuan-dollar exchange rate would lower the yuan value of those holdings by 12%. That is a big accounting loss, but it doesn’t change the value of the American goods or property investments in the US that the Chinese could buy with their trillion dollars.

But the big risk to any investor is the possibility that inflation will virtually annihilate a currency’s value. That happened in a number of countries in the 1970’s and 1980’s. In Mexico, for example, it took 150 pesos in 1990 to buy what one peso could buy in 1980.

So the good news is that dollar investments are safe. But safe doesn’t mean the investment with the highest safe return. If the dollar is likely to fall against the euro over the next several years, investments in euro-denominated bonds issued by the German or French governments may provide higher safe returns.

[Naam]

Am I the only one waiting for the baht to take a whacking great hit against the pound so I can transfer some money at more than 50 bhat to the pound.

Pound and Euro have been tanking since late last year. Lets hope a little "hiccup" is in the wind!

the pound is nose diving again this week mate,

unfortunately the baht is now linked to the US dollar,

unlikely to ever get above 50 to the pound,......ouch....

Most banks cash advance about bht52 to the pound.

only in your dreams

[Bizz]

the dollar is here to stay and will fluctuate up and down.

there will be occasional bouts of nervousness in global financial markets that will cause the dollar to rise, the dollar will continue to fall relative to the euro, the Japanese yen, and even the Chinese yuan. this decline in the dollar exchange rate is necessary to shrink the very large trade deficit that the US has with the rest of the world.

if you Consider what a decline of the dollar relative to the yuan would mean for the Chinese. If the Chinese now hold $1 trillion in their official portfolios, a 12% rise in the yuan-dollar exchange rate would lower the yuan value of those holdings by 12%. That is a big accounting loss, but it doesn’t change the value of the American goods or property investments in the US that the Chinese could buy with their trillion dollars.

But the big risk to any investor is the possibility that inflation will virtually annihilate a currency’s value. That happened in a number of countries in the 1970’s and 1980’s. In Mexico, for example, it took 150 pesos in 1990 to buy what one peso could buy in 1980.

So the good news is that dollar investments are safe. But safe doesn’t mean the investment with the highest safe return. If the dollar is likely to fall against the euro over the next several years, investments in euro-denominated bonds issued by the German or French governments may provide higher safe returns.

i see you are without sentiment, or am i without argument.

[PeaceBlondie]

We withdrew 25,150 baht last night - at the same rate Yahoo's quoted all week, 33.03.