Percentage

[rhino533]

I'm just curious to here peoples opinion. What do you think the actual percentage is of people who suppot Taksin (Reds) vs The Rest of Thailand? Do you really think Pheu Thai Party would win the Prime Minister post if there was a vote now? Whats the chances Abhisit would win? or another party?

[yabaaaa]

More than half and yes

[Jingthing]

Abhisit and any Thaksin proxy would be the leading vote getters. I think Abhisit would get slightly more votes now. Nobody could become PM without a coalition with the smaller parties. I bet a candidate from ANOTHER party other than the democrats or Thaksin proxy party would win the PM seat next time.

Edited February 27, 2010 by Jingthing

[Jingthing]

More than half and yes

That's ridiculous! The Thaksin proxy party didn't get more than half the votes last time, and that was BEFORE Black Songkran, BEFORE Cambodia, and BEFORE the obvious mental health breakdown of Thaksin.

[yabaaaa]

"I'm just curious to here peoples opinion"

Jing

[Ricardo]

Have to say that, allowing for PTP's share possibly being depressed last time, but also for Red-Songkran & Cambodia & DL's self-exile and latest case, I would put them in the 30-35% range (aot 40% proportional-vote last time).

I also suspect that the Dems, having kept things moving along reasonably (but not more than that) for 15 months, and benefiting from PTP's troubles, might have increased their share slightly, say 40-45%. PM-Abhisit has coped quite well, compared to Somchai or Samak, so far.

So if the Red:Rest ratio was 40:60 last time, when the minor parties said pre-election they wouldn't support PPP, it's moved slightly to 34:66 now, all in my opinion only.

But as always, who leads a coalition & becomes PM after the next election, depends on coalition-politics. PTP would benefit from having a good-quality clear-leader, not sure who that might be. There is also of course the list-MP factor to help complicate things.

Does anyone have a detailed-analysis or view on the minor-parties ?

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Country remains roughly split down the middle. You don't notice it so much because almost all the media is in one camp, and/or practicing self-censorship.

It doesn't really matter though because power doesn't sit with parliament or elected government in this country. Your question would be more relevant in a democracy.

[tooninthai]

There are still a lot of reds about and many of them will not be put off by this ruling against Thaksin as many believe Abhisit is every bit as corrupt.

Before you start asking for proof of what Abhisit has done, this is word of mouth and I said the reds believe Abhisit is corrupt.

I think there will be a very close run election if the current government dare to call one.

edit typos

Edited February 27, 2010 by tooninthai

[PeaceBlondie]

It doesn't really matter though because power doesn't sit with parliament or elected government in this country. Your question would be more relevant in a democracy.

BINGO.

[ballpoint]

There are still a lot of reds about and many of them will not be put off by this ruling against Thaksin as many believe Abhisit is every bit as corrupt.

Before you start asking for proof of what Abhisit has done, this is word of mouth and I said the reds believe Abhisit is corrupt.

And many think Thaksin is a flatulent, bloated slug. Nothing to do with what I think, just word of mouth understand? What a weasely post. Sling allegations at Abhisit and hide behind "word of mouth". (By the way, Thaksin is now proven to be corrupt, get over it).

I think there will be a very close run election if the current government dare to call one.

What has "dare" got to do with the decision to hold elections or not? All very childish. "I dare you to have an election".

In my opinion, elections held right now would result in a very similar result to what we have now. I can't see the Democrats losing any seats they currently have, but I can't see them gaining many either. Any changes will be to the PTP and smaller parties dropping and picking up each others seats. Whoever can put a coalition together will win. Bear in mind that there is no longer any love lost between Thaksin and Newin. The stated policy of Chalerm, that the PTP will do all it can to pardon and reinstate Thaksin, will not do it any favours when negotiating with the BJT.

Edited February 27, 2010 by ballpoint

[rixalex]

There are still a lot of reds about and many of them will not be put off by this ruling against Thaksin as many believe Abhisit is every bit as corrupt.

So the reds you meet believe that Abhisit is as corrupt as Thaksin do they? Interesting. So no denial now of Thaksin being corrupt - they accept that and still love the man, but aren't happy because they think Abhisit is too (despite presumably having no evidence). Why would that bother them? Corruption never got in the way of their adoration for Thaksin. Sad people....

[popshirt]

Country remains roughly split down the middle. You don't notice it so much because almost all the media is in one camp, and/or practicing self-censorship.

It doesn't really matter though because power doesn't sit with parliament or elected government in this country. Your question would be more relevant in a democracy.

Spot on!

Also reds are not all married to Thaksin. If he were to disappear, their agenda remains both vital and vibrant. This is a circumstance wherein the 'hearts and minds' of the people have been won over and informed already. Thailand is at the beginning of a new political process, and in my opinion, this is true democracy at work, perhaps in its infancy, but working nevertheless.

[rixalex]

Also reds are not all married to Thaksin.

Yeah they are, although some will no doubt try to distance themselves from him a bit, now that it's been proved to them what the rest of Thailand already knew and has been telling them for ages.

If he were to disappear, their agenda remains both vital and vibrant.

The agenda of the red movement was about one man. If people within that movement believed otherwise, they were sadly mistaken. They should take their agenda and start under a new banner that has no association with a corrupt criminal.

[Moonrakers]

Just over 30% of voters voted for his party in the last election, I don't know what percentage of the population that is. I think it is safe to say that you can start there and go down.