UK Pound Collapse 47.99 against the Baht

[Gambles]

Baht underperforming Asean currencies!!!!!!

Big Eh What?

I can't manage to either copy or upload an emf file - if someone who knows how to can email or pm me I'll send the charts for them to add.....

What time scale?. I can imagine over 1 month that may be the case but over a year surely the reverse is true.

1 month, 3 months and 1 year

[Gambles]

As we're not allowed to copy BangkokPost original article on TV forum, I'll copy our press release instead if that's OK...

One of the world's leading global portfolio managers told The Bangkok Post that Thailand might fail to capitalise on its strengths to become one of the best investment markets in Asia if political risk continues to affect the country's economy.

Scott Campbell, an S&P award-winning fund manager, told Post writer Pornnalat Prachyakorn that foreign investors remain bullish on the growth of emerging markets including Asia -

''Asia along with other emerging markets will continue to be the best place for investment for the next 30 to 40 years. Over the past 10 years, the stock market in the west has done nothing while Asian stock markets have grown three-to-fourfold.'','' said Mr. Campbell, Managing Director of award-winning MitonOptimal Guernsey.

Khun Pornnalat reported that although Thailand's economic fundamentals are attractive, political risk is seen as the major obstacle on the path to a better economic position, which is highlighted by the relative performance of the Baht during the period since April last year, which has seen a significant rebound in Asian currencies.

''Currency is a barometer of political risk and the Thai Baht has been pretty much flat since last year [on a trade-weighted basis]'' he said. ''If the political risk gets sorted out, then you may see the Thai baht appreciate just to catch up with what other regional currencies which it has lagged during this time.'' adding that the fundamentals for the whole Asian region are still very positive but Thailand could lag because of political instability.

Paul Gambles, Managing Partner of leading research and advisory consultancy MBMG Group, said that observers such as Dr. Mark Mobius have noted that Thailand started to underperform the rest of the region in 2004, when political tensions first began to affect the economy -

''Thailand's economy has significantly underperformed over the last few years. This can be best be seen by comparing Thailand's economic growth, foreign-exchange rates and stock market valuations with those of comparable economies in Southeast Asia,'' he said, quoting research by John Sheehan of the consultancy Global Market Asia, that growth rates in a number of Asean neighbours had not only caught up, but had overtaken that of Thailand:

''If you take the superior GDP growth rate of a jurisdiction like the Philippines and apply this higher rate to Thailand's growth from 2005, it can be seen that by the end of 2008 Thailand's GDP would be somewhere between US$30 billion and $40 billion higher,''

One very positive sign for Asia, Mr. Campbell said, has been the growth in domestic consumption and markets and in intra-regional trade:

''The region is exporting within itself. This has shown that Asia is much less dependent on the west which is very positive,''

Asian demographics also are positive with the population distribution being similar to that of the United States Baby Boom era:

''An economy that has a bigger chunk of people at the bottom [age group] is in a much better shape than the economy that has bigger chunk of people at the top. India, for example, will progress through the baby boom stage and isn’t projected to reach the top heavy state that is starting to impact on the growth of the US today until 2050. In long term trends this is a theme very supportive of emerging markets growth for another 40 years or so.''

Scott also noted that other economic aspects are shifting from the West to the East –

“In the past, a high-risk portfolio was emerging market bonds, Japanese equities and developing market property. At the same time a low-risk one contained US government bonds, German blue-chip companies and UK property but now, the situation is completely reversed.''

Asian commercial property is particularly attractive in many cases with low gearing ratios and good yield carry. And while Asian growth may lead to higher interest rates, the strong carry differential will be partially protected by economic growth leading to higher rents and occupancy rates.

Scott Campbell remains bullish on gold as one of the allocated asset classes and based on a number of technical and fundamental factors expects gold prices to ultimately rise to between $2,000 and $2,500 an ounce. Gold has been one of the asset classes that has helped Scott to achieve exceptional outperformance over the last 10 years; a period in which the Dow Jones Industrial average has fallen by around 30% and the gold price has increased almost fivefold from its lowest point to current levels just below $1,200 an ounce.

[garyk]

I thought all the currencys were taking a beating against the Baht. Dollar is i know. What currency is holding it own now?

[chiang mai]

I thought all the currencys were taking a beating against the Baht. Dollar is i know. What currency is holding it own now?

The Singapore Dollar's OK.

[thaibeachlovers]

Just think what you could have spent the extra 300 baht on.

Take the GF to the movies.

Have a nice meal in a restaurant.

Go to Nong Nooch Garden.

Day trip to Bangkok to see the red shirts in their "cage".

Day trip to Kho Larn.

An evening at the Malibu Show.

Big breakfast for two.

Buy some furniture for the room.

3 DVDs from MBK.

Some girly presents for the GF.

etc

etc

[Gambles]

I thought all the currencys were taking a beating against the Baht. Dollar is i know. What currency is holding it own now?

Versus USD

One Year

IDR + 20%

MYR + 13%

THB + 9%

Three Months

MYR +8%

PHP +5%

IDR +4%

THB +2%

Data was taken from Bloomberg 2 weeks ago - I haven't updated).

[Gambles]

I thought all the currencys were taking a beating against the Baht. Dollar is i know. What currency is holding it own now?

Versus USD

One Year

IDR + 20%

MYR + 13%

THB + 9%

Three Months

MYR +8%

PHP +5%

IDR +4%

THB +2%

(Data was taken from Bloomberg 2 weeks ago - I haven't updated).

Edited May 3, 2010 by Gambles

[Gambles]

Very interesting Nation piece from the excellent, Khun Achara, featuring a chap that I know and whose research I use and with whom I was recently on a panel discussion ref pegging the baht or not (I'll also post this on the other current Baht threads)

Thailand urged to resume pegged currency

By ACHARA DEBOONME

THE NATION

Published on May 4, 2010

Thailand and other Southeast Asian nations are being strongly urged to change their foreign-exchange policy, given that major Western currencies could further lose their shine, due to massive public debt.

Independent consultant John Sheehan yesterday advised Thai authorities to consider resuming the currency peg."If the baht moves freely, it could further appreciate to 25 to the US dollar. That would destroy exports and tourism," he said.

His argument lies heavily on the massive amount of public debt. Leading the charge is Japan, where public debt now exceeds 200 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), with Europe and the US hot on their heels. They all need to cut back on spending, but this will result in lower tax receipts and an even bigger deficit. The options are to default on the debts or print more money, which would only lead to hyperinflation.

US public debt rose to US$11 trillion (Bt356 trillion) last year, or nearly the size of that country's economy, against $5 trillion in 2000. Sheehan expects the US to seek partial debt default sometime between 2012 and 2014.

He said the default outlook was imminent, given that inclusive of contingency liabilities, that country's public debt was now 160 per cent of GDP. Western countries are also shouldering a huge burden from unfunded welfare benefits.

The general belief is that a public-debt level of 60 per cent of GDP slows down economic growth. At 90 per cent, it could stop growth.

"If this hits 200 per cent, there are two options: hyperdeflation or default," Sheehan said.

Thus, Southeast Asian economies are urged to change their approach to foreign-exchange risk, because Western currencies are at the beginning of a long-term slide, and for smaller, export-based economies to continue flowing previous foreign-exchange approaches is illogical and will become increasingly risky. This is aside from major investment in new technologies and products and aggressive and active development of new export markets.

Southeast Asian currencies are now strengthening artificially, not in response to domestic growth, but rather to Western weakness. Sheehan said if this intensified, the baht could rise above 30 to the dollar, reaching even 25 - when it was last pegged to the US.

He said the simplest and most logical way of counteracting this was implementation of a managed peg similar to the Chinese model. This would stimulate growth immediately by increasing GDP and automatically build up reserves. The downside is inflation risk, but this is the lesser of two evils, particularly in a global recession.

In this way, Sheehan sees the advantage of the political crisis, which has weakened the baht, and he suggests authorities peg it once it hits bottom.

Last Friday, the baht fell to about 32 to the dollar, making it one of the region's weaker currencies. It is expected to trade at 32-32.40 this month on the uncertainty surrounding the ongoing political turmoil.

Sheehan sees less need for building up foreign reserves to defend the currency, because reserves are needed only to defend an overvalued currency. Given the perilous state of Western markets, the baht is now effectively undervalued. Hot-money flows have also been flagged, but given the likelihood of Western deflation, such flows into Thailand would be an issue regardless of whether the currency was pegged.

The baht can be fixed against a basket of currencies related to, say, export-destination markets, foreign direct investment or even commodity and energy prices, given that Thailand is reliant on exports and energy.

Sheehan ended by saying the sooner a peg was placed, the sooner the benefits would flow. This would also mitigate rebound volatility when the major Western currencies reverse their present long-term decline.

[ChiangMaiFun]

For those of you confused as to why the Baht is so strong and remains strong, let me offer an opinion.

Normally in Thailand the budget before the last year of power of a government is where rampant and massive corruption occurs.

Politicians need money to pay for the next election and therefore the final budget before the last year is where they get money spent on projects where their supporters have interests and so the money is fed back to the politicians.

Its like the retirement fund/new election campaign funds kitty.

This is why the Reds are doing their demo now, they too know this happens.

With regards to the baht, others also know this happens and so they pile money into investments into "Democrat / BJT / Coalition parties" companies, knowing that end of this year and early next year these companies will win lots of government tenders and work and have a great year.

This flow of funds into Thailand investing in these companies and associated investments is what is making the baht strong.

If the election is Q42 2011 then from June onwards next year the baht will plummet.

If the present government gets kicked out, the baht will also plummet.

If the present government remains in power the baht will remain strong, until the budget is over and then the companies associated with friends and family of the government win massive government business and then it will go down as an election nears.

With regards to the pound, it is "extra weak" presently due to uncertainty over the elections in the UK and the possibility of a hung parliament. Once the election is done then the pound will bounce a bit.

I agree - we now know the date of elections - be interesting the effect on the GBP - also hopefully a 'bounce' May 7th onwards

[cdnvic]

Two posts containing references to Royals deleted. Keep on topic please.

[mommysboy]

Very interesting Nation piece from the excellent, Khun Achara, featuring a chap that I know and whose research I use and with whom I was recently on a panel discussion ref pegging the baht or not (I'll also post this on the other current Baht threads)

Thailand urged to resume pegged currency

By ACHARA DEBOONME

THE NATION

Published on May 4, 2010

Thailand and other Southeast Asian nations are being strongly urged to change their foreign-exchange policy, given that major Western currencies could further lose their shine, due to massive public debt.

Independent consultant John Sheehan yesterday advised Thai authorities to consider resuming the currency peg."If the baht moves freely, it could further appreciate to 25 to the US dollar. That would destroy exports and tourism," he said.

His argument lies heavily on the massive amount of public debt. Leading the charge is Japan, where public debt now exceeds 200 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), with Europe and the US hot on their heels. They all need to cut back on spending, but this will result in lower tax receipts and an even bigger deficit. The options are to default on the debts or print more money, which would only lead to hyperinflation.

US public debt rose to US$11 trillion (Bt356 trillion) last year, or nearly the size of that country's economy, against $5 trillion in 2000. Sheehan expects the US to seek partial debt default sometime between 2012 and 2014.

He said the default outlook was imminent, given that inclusive of contingency liabilities, that country's public debt was now 160 per cent of GDP. Western countries are also shouldering a huge burden from unfunded welfare benefits.

The general belief is that a public-debt level of 60 per cent of GDP slows down economic growth. At 90 per cent, it could stop growth.

"If this hits 200 per cent, there are two options: hyperdeflation or default," Sheehan said.

Thus, Southeast Asian economies are urged to change their approach to foreign-exchange risk, because Western currencies are at the beginning of a long-term slide, and for smaller, export-based economies to continue flowing previous foreign-exchange approaches is illogical and will become increasingly risky. This is aside from major investment in new technologies and products and aggressive and active development of new export markets.

Southeast Asian currencies are now strengthening artificially, not in response to domestic growth, but rather to Western weakness. Sheehan said if this intensified, the baht could rise above 30 to the dollar, reaching even 25 - when it was last pegged to the US.

He said the simplest and most logical way of counteracting this was implementation of a managed peg similar to the Chinese model. This would stimulate growth immediately by increasing GDP and automatically build up reserves. The downside is inflation risk, but this is the lesser of two evils, particularly in a global recession.

In this way, Sheehan sees the advantage of the political crisis, which has weakened the baht, and he suggests authorities peg it once it hits bottom.

Last Friday, the baht fell to about 32 to the dollar, making it one of the region's weaker currencies. It is expected to trade at 32-32.40 this month on the uncertainty surrounding the ongoing political turmoil.

Sheehan sees less need for building up foreign reserves to defend the currency, because reserves are needed only to defend an overvalued currency. Given the perilous state of Western markets, the baht is now effectively undervalued. Hot-money flows have also been flagged, but given the likelihood of Western deflation, such flows into Thailand would be an issue regardless of whether the currency was pegged.

The baht can be fixed against a basket of currencies related to, say, export-destination markets, foreign direct investment or even commodity and energy prices, given that Thailand is reliant on exports and energy.

Sheehan ended by saying the sooner a peg was placed, the sooner the benefits would flow. This would also mitigate rebound volatility when the major Western currencies reverse their present long-term decline.

A very interesting piece. It all adds up to the fact that if US is fecked then just about all else will follow. At that point all speculation goes out the window. 'Western currencies at the the beginning of a slide'; one would hope they are some way through it, well the pound at least.

Bleak reading.

If Thailand is experiencing strong growth, I suppose it needs to come from non western sources, otherwise I don't see how a strong currency and rapid exports are at all possible, in fact wouldn't the opposite prevail. Anyone know where to source the figs?

Of course it could be that the western economies are not so badly off. What would happen if in 2012 UK pLC realised it's banking assets at a profit, would that help or are we talking a drop in the ocean?

[Gambles]

Very interesting Nation piece from the excellent, Khun Achara, featuring a chap that I know and whose research I use and with whom I was recently on a panel discussion ref pegging the baht or not (I'll also post this on the other current Baht threads)

Thailand urged to resume pegged currency

By ACHARA DEBOONME

THE NATION

Published on May 4, 2010

Thailand and other Southeast Asian nations are being strongly urged to change their foreign-exchange policy, given that major Western currencies could further lose their shine, due to massive public debt.

Independent consultant John Sheehan yesterday advised Thai authorities to consider resuming the currency peg."If the baht moves freely, it could further appreciate to 25 to the US dollar. That would destroy exports and tourism," he said.

His argument lies heavily on the massive amount of public debt. Leading the charge is Japan, where public debt now exceeds 200 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), with Europe and the US hot on their heels. They all need to cut back on spending, but this will result in lower tax receipts and an even bigger deficit. The options are to default on the debts or print more money, which would only lead to hyperinflation.

US public debt rose to US$11 trillion (Bt356 trillion) last year, or nearly the size of that country's economy, against $5 trillion in 2000. Sheehan expects the US to seek partial debt default sometime between 2012 and 2014.

He said the default outlook was imminent, given that inclusive of contingency liabilities, that country's public debt was now 160 per cent of GDP. Western countries are also shouldering a huge burden from unfunded welfare benefits.

The general belief is that a public-debt level of 60 per cent of GDP slows down economic growth. At 90 per cent, it could stop growth.

"If this hits 200 per cent, there are two options: hyperdeflation or default," Sheehan said.

Thus, Southeast Asian economies are urged to change their approach to foreign-exchange risk, because Western currencies are at the beginning of a long-term slide, and for smaller, export-based economies to continue flowing previous foreign-exchange approaches is illogical and will become increasingly risky. This is aside from major investment in new technologies and products and aggressive and active development of new export markets.

Southeast Asian currencies are now strengthening artificially, not in response to domestic growth, but rather to Western weakness. Sheehan said if this intensified, the baht could rise above 30 to the dollar, reaching even 25 - when it was last pegged to the US.

He said the simplest and most logical way of counteracting this was implementation of a managed peg similar to the Chinese model. This would stimulate growth immediately by increasing GDP and automatically build up reserves. The downside is inflation risk, but this is the lesser of two evils, particularly in a global recession.

In this way, Sheehan sees the advantage of the political crisis, which has weakened the baht, and he suggests authorities peg it once it hits bottom.

Last Friday, the baht fell to about 32 to the dollar, making it one of the region's weaker currencies. It is expected to trade at 32-32.40 this month on the uncertainty surrounding the ongoing political turmoil.

Sheehan sees less need for building up foreign reserves to defend the currency, because reserves are needed only to defend an overvalued currency. Given the perilous state of Western markets, the baht is now effectively undervalued. Hot-money flows have also been flagged, but given the likelihood of Western deflation, such flows into Thailand would be an issue regardless of whether the currency was pegged.

The baht can be fixed against a basket of currencies related to, say, export-destination markets, foreign direct investment or even commodity and energy prices, given that Thailand is reliant on exports and energy.

Sheehan ended by saying the sooner a peg was placed, the sooner the benefits would flow. This would also mitigate rebound volatility when the major Western currencies reverse their present long-term decline.

A very interesting piece. It all adds up to the fact that if US is fecked then just about all else will follow. At that point all speculation goes out the window. 'Western currencies at the the beginning of a slide'; one would hope they are some way through it, well the pound at least.

Bleak reading.

If Thailand is experiencing strong growth, I suppose it needs to come from non western sources, otherwise I don't see how a strong currency and rapid exports are at all possible, in fact wouldn't the opposite prevail. Anyone know where to source the figs?

Of course it could be that the western economies are not so badly off. What would happen if in 2012 UK pLC realised it's banking assets at a profit, would that help or are we talking a drop in the ocean?

Pm me your email address and I'll send you a breakdown of Thai exports + an interesting export trend graph ref China

[JackSterling]

Bank of America gave me 30.71 baht for each America dollar.. or for $1000 me gets 30,710 ..

So, $1000 USD in

1994 was 25,000 baht,

1998 was 52,000 baht,

2003 was 44,000 baht,

2009 was 37,000 baht...

I suggest you British guys stop drinking "limey lager" and stop smoking those "cancer sticks" that most of you all seem to be stuck on..

Get a cheaper house and cast out all those dames not making money for you .. but do not shoot all your dogs..only the sick ones.

[mommysboy]

Bank of America gave me 30.71 baht for each America dollar.. or for $1000 me gets 30,710 ..

So, $1000 USD in

1994 was 25,000 baht,

1998 was 52,000 baht,

2003 was 44,000 baht,

2009 was 37,000 baht...

I suggest you British guys stop drinking "limey lager" and stop smoking those "cancer sticks" that most of you all seem to be stuck on..

Get a cheaper house and cast out all those dames not making money for you .. but do not shoot all your dogs..only the sick ones.

It's been discussed to death, but the dollar at 25 was never a true mark, nor 50 for that matter.

Other than that, what did the dollar buy in Thailand all that time ago, and how much has your income gone up to compensate that?

I guess it's pretty much even.

For us Brits I think it's the shock of such a dramatic and as yet unrelenting decline over a shortish time frame. Yes Thailand is still good value, but if you export to the west then it's possible you won't have an income stream if the baht strengthens much more.

[Gambles]

Bank of America gave me 30.71 baht for each America dollar.. or for $1000 me gets 30,710 ..

So, $1000 USD in

1994 was 25,000 baht,

1998 was 52,000 baht,

2003 was 44,000 baht,

2009 was 37,000 baht...

I suggest you British guys stop drinking "limey lager" and stop smoking those "cancer sticks" that most of you all seem to be stuck on..

Get a cheaper house and cast out all those dames not making money for you .. but do not shoot all your dogs..only the sick ones.

It's been discussed to death, but the dollar at 25 was never a true mark, nor 50 for that matter.

Other than that, what did the dollar buy in Thailand all that time ago, and how much has your income gone up to compensate that?

I guess it's pretty much even.

For us Brits I think it's the shock of such a dramatic and as yet unrelenting decline over a shortish time frame. Yes Thailand is still good value, but if you export to the west then it's possible you won't have an income stream if the baht strengthens much more.

20/20.8 were fair marks for a long period and 25 was valid for a reasonable time too but obviously not by the end - the power of leverage was what ultimately caused such a rapid powerful explosion

[churchill]

It is possible that Asian currencies are not going to strengthen in the near term - So be careful about switching to Baht or SGD .

With the problems in the Euro area - perhaps spreading - there is a possibility of a recession in the Europe ( Greece is being forced into one - and who's next ?) This will effect exports from China and so S/E Asia .

Currencies here have gone up a lot recently - So perhaps a time to switch ? USD will benefit from any market correction - So short term switch to USD ?

[Gambles]

It is possible that Asian currencies are not going to strengthen in the near term - So be careful about switching to Baht or SGD .

With the problems in the Euro area - perhaps spreading - there is a possibility of a recession in the Europe ( Greece is being forced into one - and who's next ?) This will effect exports from China and so S/E Asia .

Currencies here have gone up a lot recently - So perhaps a time to switch ? USD will benefit from any market correction - So short term switch to USD ?

Yep - you know that I have a lot of time for that view - USD to rally strongly on the back of any global problems - the more severe the problems, the greater the rally.

Ladies & gentlemen I'd like to present the clear winner of the least ugly of the major currencies contest - The US Dollar!

[churchill]

It is possible that Asian currencies are not going to strengthen in the near term - So be careful about switching to Baht or SGD .

With the problems in the Euro area - perhaps spreading - there is a possibility of a recession in the Europe ( Greece is being forced into one - and who's next ?) This will effect exports from China and so S/E Asia .

Currencies here have gone up a lot recently - So perhaps a time to switch ? USD will benefit from any market correction - So short term switch to USD ?

Yep - you know that I have a lot of time for that view - USD to rally strongly on the back of any global problems - the more severe the problems, the greater the rally.

Ladies & gentlemen I'd like to present the clear winner of the least ugly of the major currencies contest - The US Dollar!

So you would switch today from Baht and SGD and GBP to USD ?

[chiang mai]

Gambles may but I certainly wouldn't! If the Conservatives win outright tomorrow I expect the Pound to rocket and that being for two reasons, the first that a clear way forward out of spiralling debt will be in the offing and secondly, the Pound will be seen as a safer haven given the woes of the Euro. If however the outcome tomorrow is something else, well, I expect to see the Pound slide somewhat. The differentiator with the UK, given the current problems in Europe, is that we have the Pound and they have the Euro and I don't expect the contagion surrounding the Euro to reach UK shores unless there's a really silly outcome on Thursday.

[mommysboy]

It is possible that Asian currencies are not going to strengthen in the near term - So be careful about switching to Baht or SGD .

With the problems in the Euro area - perhaps spreading - there is a possibility of a recession in the Europe ( Greece is being forced into one - and who's next ?) This will effect exports from China and so S/E Asia .

Currencies here have gone up a lot recently - So perhaps a time to switch ? USD will benefit from any market correction - So short term switch to USD ?

Yep - you know that I have a lot of time for that view - USD to rally strongly on the back of any global problems - the more severe the problems, the greater the rally.

Ladies & gentlemen I'd like to present the clear winner of the least ugly of the major currencies contest - The US Dollar!

So you would switch today from Baht and SGD and GBP to USD ?

Ultimately, it's the world's reserve currency, and in some ways the last resort.

But it's not so clear cut is it? . Nobody get out of this mess easily. Wouldn't the effect of a strong dollar have a bad effect on US economic growth and eventually cause structural problems that again are bound to impact on the currency.

And the world and his dog heavily in to dollars could create the sort of conditions that lead to a dreadful sell off, as ultimately it's value would not be reflected in fundamentals.

[churchill]

It is possible that Asian currencies are not going to strengthen in the near term - So be careful about switching to Baht or SGD .

With the problems in the Euro area - perhaps spreading - there is a possibility of a recession in the Europe ( Greece is being forced into one - and who's next ?) This will effect exports from China and so S/E Asia .

Currencies here have gone up a lot recently - So perhaps a time to switch ? USD will benefit from any market correction - So short term switch to USD ?

Yep - you know that I have a lot of time for that view - USD to rally strongly on the back of any global problems - the more severe the problems, the greater the rally.

Ladies & gentlemen I'd like to present the clear winner of the least ugly of the major currencies contest - The US Dollar!

So you would switch today from Baht and SGD and GBP to USD ?

Ultimately, it's the world's reserve currency, and in some ways the last resort.

But it's not so clear cut is it? . Nobody get out of this mess easily. Wouldn't the effect of a strong dollar have a bad effect on US economic growth and eventually cause structural problems that again are bound to impact on the currency.

And the world and his dog heavily in to dollars could create the sort of conditions that lead to a dreadful sell off, as ultimately it's value would not be reflected in fundamentals.

Yes - I agree

USD short term then to Gold or back to Asian currencies /

[mommysboy]

Gambles may but I certainly wouldn't! If the Conservatives win outright tomorrow I expect the Pound to rocket and that being for two reasons, the first that a clear way forward out of spiralling debt will be in the offing and secondly, the Pound will be seen as a safer haven given the woes of the Euro. If however the outcome tomorrow is something else, well, I expect to see the Pound slide somewhat. The differentiator with the UK, given the current problems in Europe, is that we have the Pound and they have the Euro and I don't expect the contagion surrounding the Euro to reach UK shores unless there's a really silly outcome on Thursday.

Broadly I agree.

Although a natural Labour supporter, I feel only a Tory government is appropriate as historically they handle adverse economic situations better, particularly where spending cuts are needed. Like most I'm shocked at the level of UK debt (while noting it's been done to death in the currency price) and also feel there's a sense of moral rightness in making people face the consequences of their excess. Talk about pampered, too much even for socialist mommysboy.

It would be seen by investors as a green light for go and the pound would strengthen dramatically IMHO.

[churchill]

I think GBP will fall whatever happens /

[chiang mai]

I think GBP will fall whatever happens /

I think you might have just killed this thread with that statement Churchill, tell you what, let's meet here again after the election results have been anounced and see who had the best guess.

[thaibeachlovers]

Gambles may but I certainly wouldn't! If the Conservatives win outright tomorrow I expect the Pound to rocket and that being for two reasons, the first that a clear way forward out of spiralling debt will be in the offing and secondly, the Pound will be seen as a safer haven given the woes of the Euro. If however the outcome tomorrow is something else, well, I expect to see the Pound slide somewhat. The differentiator with the UK, given the current problems in Europe, is that we have the Pound and they have the Euro and I don't expect the contagion surrounding the Euro to reach UK shores unless there's a really silly outcome on Thursday.

Broadly I agree.

Although a natural Labour supporter, I feel only a Tory government is appropriate as historically they handle adverse economic situations better, particularly where spending cuts are needed. Like most I'm shocked at the level of UK debt (while noting it's been done to death in the currency price) and also feel there's a sense of moral rightness in making people face the consequences of their excess. Talk about pampered, too much even for socialist mommysboy.

It would be seen by investors as a green light for go and the pound would strengthen dramatically IMHO.

In the UK after '97, I was constantly inundated with offers to borrow money without credit checks. While I doubt such is the case now, I too feel "morally righteous" that all the greedies are now in the doo doo. If I knew it would all end in tears back then, so should all the regulators ( whom I think should be publicly hung drawn and quartered for allowing it all to happen ). The tragedy of the whole thing is that while any savers who did the right thing and lived frugally while putting money in the bank are getting the shaft with 0 interest and a rubbish forex rate, the greedies had a great life at the time, and probably aren't much worse off now than the savers.

Makes me wish I'd "borrowed" everything I could get my hands on, and done a runner to LOS. They'd never find me in some apartment off Soi Buakhaow!

Hope the pro "rising pound" posters are correct.

[dmax]

i buy 20 bottles of budweiser(the very best beer in the world) in tesco for £10.00 thats 25 baht per bottle so cheaper to buy drink here in uk that p8s water in los, clothes? i buy good quality t-shirts and jeans for half the price for what i would pay in thailand the material on the t-shirts in thailand is rubbish , i buy shoes at half the price also,

dont be fooled thailand is not cheap !!!!! for hotels maybe andthe company of girls thats about it !!! oh and thai food i forgot to mention is resonable but saying that i can get a good subway samwhich here in uk for 100 baht, i can buy a steak in tesco for £2.00 100 baht ok its a good sized stewing steak but good quality beef all the same marinated in sauce over night and served with greens then it woulkd beat any meal ive had in los for 100 baht !!!

[tombradly]

i buy 20 bottles of budweiser(the very best beer in the world) in tesco for £10.00 thats 25 baht per bottle so cheaper to buy drink here in uk that p8s water in los, clothes? i buy good quality t-shirts and jeans for half the price for what i would pay in thailand the material on the t-shirts in thailand is rubbish , i buy shoes at half the price also,

dont be fooled thailand is not cheap !!!!! for hotels maybe andthe company of girls thats about it !!! oh and thai food i forgot to mention is resonable but saying that i can get a good subway samwhich here in uk for 100 baht, i can buy a steak in tesco for £2.00 100 baht ok its a good sized stewing steak but good quality beef all the same marinated in sauce over night and served with greens then it woulkd beat any meal ive had in los for 100 baht !!!

I agree.

I like drinking the Bud and it is a good beer.

Your points pretty much hit it all on the head.

The days of Thailand being a cheap place to live are a decade behind us all now.

[tombradly]

i buy 20 bottles of Budweiser(the very best beer in the world) in tesco for £10.00 thats 25 baht per bottle so cheaper to buy drink here in uk that p8s water in los, clothes? i buy good quality t-shirts and jeans for half the price for what i would pay in thailand the material on the t-shirts in thailand is rubbish , i buy shoes at half the price also,

don't be fooled thailand is not cheap !!!!! for hotels maybe and the company of girls thats about it !!! oh and Thai food i forgot to mention is reasonable but saying that i can get a good subway samwhich here in uk for 100 baht, i can buy a steak in tesco for £2.00 100 baht ok its a good sized stewing steak but good quality beef all the same marinated in sauce over night and served with greens then it woulkd beat any meal ive had in los for 100 baht !!!

I agree.

I like drinking the Bud and it is a good beer.

Your points pretty much hit it all on the head.

The days of Thailand being a cheap place to live are a decade behind us all now.

Back in 1997, a beer in a bar was 50 baht.

The baht was a wreck and so the nation was cheap to visit with foreign currency.

Now the baht is getting stronger and stronger.

BUT--this too shall end. I find it hard to believe that the baht will be able to stay so strong much longer. The strong baht really hurts the Thai exports. It of course hurts the Thai tourism industry. The political wreck should be wrecking the baht as well.

I am no expert but it seems very likely that the strong baht is based on Big money holding it up here in Thailand for political reasons. When it does get weaker, and it will, it will crash.

BUT, if things get violent here, people will not come no matter how weak the baht gets.

Home sweet Home.

[roamer]

I think GBP will fall whatever happens /

I think you might have just killed this thread with that statement Churchill, tell you what, let's meet here again after the election results have been anounced and see who had the best guess.

Excuse me gents but I haven't noticed either of you having a guess ? Expressing a preference maybe, not the same thing. Who would like to guess this one, eve of polling day and almost half of people polled say they are undecided, 1 in10 say they will make up the mind in the booth itself!! And there could be some silly results, its quite possible that we will have our next election date confirmed before the one in LOS. My prediction. No overall majority. Tories largest party, labour not far behind, Liberals not doing as well as the polls have predicted they might but still holding the balance. A short-lived Lib-lab coalition, Miliiband as PM, Cable as Chancellor and Clegg as, hmm problem...ok lets try one of the other permutations, any one of thousands. I do agree GPB in for a torrid time for a while at least. At least if my prediction does come true I will be able to do the old school tie thing with Milliband, though I can't remember anyone at Haverstock actually owning a tie let alone wearing one

[mommysboy]

I think GBP will fall whatever happens /

I think you might have just killed this thread with that statement Churchill, tell you what, let's meet here again after the election results have been anounced and see who had the best guess.

Excuse me gents but I haven't noticed either of you having a guess ? Expressing a preference maybe, not the same thing. Who would like to guess this one, eve of polling day and almost half of people polled say they are undecided, 1 in10 say they will make up the mind in the booth itself!! And there could be some silly results, its quite possible that we will have our next election date confirmed before the one in LOS. My prediction. No overall majority. Tories largest party, labour not far behind, Liberals not doing as well as the polls have predicted they might but still holding the balance. A short-lived Lib-lab coalition, Miliiband as PM, Cable as Chancellor and Clegg as, hmm problem...ok lets try one of the other permutations, any one of thousands. I do agree GPB in for a torrid time for a while at least. At least if my prediction does come true I will be able to do the old school tie thing with Milliband, though I can't remember anyone at Haverstock actually owning a tie let alone wearing one

Personally I sense a sea change in recent days and predict Con overall majority of 30.