UK Pound Collapse 47.99 against the Baht

[Lancelot]

Clothes like t-shirts & cheap day wear can be got in Uk much cheaper & better quality than Thailand.

Thailand is not nearly as cheap as people think imo.

I would agree.

Most western expats have been hit with the double whammy: The price increases/inflation in Thailand AND the stronger baht

[somtampet]

Clothes like t-shirts & cheap day wear can be got in Uk much cheaper & better quality than Thailand.

Thailand is not nearly as cheap as people think imo.

Well BOO

Sorry to dissapoint you but i didnt come here because it was cheap.I came here becaue THAILAND is one of the most beautiful places in the world and beats most parts of Europe especilay that big zit,England

[chiang mai]

The last couple of pages of this thread tells the story:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Pound-Starti...64#entry3379764

If you've got money in Pounds it's probably a very good time to sell it and buy US Dollars, that's what everyone else in the world is doing.

That's just the propaganda. The USD is worse off than the Pound. The Euro just as bad. They are heading towards their intrinsic value.

I was about to say that you were wrong but then I just checked for the first time in a while, it seems that USD/THB has just taken a big hit in the past twenty four hours and is indeed going down quite sharply. All my attention was on GBP/USD and I was not paying attention to USD/THB, nasty indeed.

[lannarebirth]

The last couple of pages of this thread tells the story:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Pound-Starti...64#entry3379764

If you've got money in Pounds it's probably a very good time to sell it and buy US Dollars, that's what everyone else in the world is doing.

That's just the propaganda. The USD is worse off than the Pound. The Euro just as bad. They are heading towards their intrinsic value.

I was about to say that you were wrong but then I just checked for the first time in a while, it seems that USD/THB has just taken a big hit in the past twenty four hours and is indeed going down quite sharply. All my attention was on GBP/USD and I was not paying attention to USD/THB, nasty indeed.

Down 1% in 3 days time. Got Thai assets?

Edited March 2, 2010 by lannarebirth

[chiang mai]

Exactly why so many people think that the Baht is kept strong through artificially through intervention is beyond me, the reality is that the BOT utilises its reserves periodically to weaken the Baht - the stated objectives of the BOT are to keep the Baht at the midpoint of a basket of regional currencies and to ensure there are no sudden and large scale swings against the US Dollar. As regional currencies strengthen against USD then so the Baht is allowed to increase its value also, otherwise, the main effort is to try and keep the lid on the currency lest it becomes too strong and as such, uncompetitive. Remember, BOT has foreign reserves in excess of USD $135 bill. and has positive balances in all categories - fortunately THB is not a major currency hence it does not cost central bank very much to control its value.

We are considering two currencies in this thread. So it is perfectly proper to discuss why the pound is weak and that the central bank can and does control the baht.

As Slim would probably agree

caf

And that's fine Caf, just so long as we all understand that the central bank of Thailand does not intervene in the Forex markets to keep the Baht strong.

[chiang mai]

The last couple of pages of this thread tells the story:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Pound-Starti...64#entry3379764

If you've got money in Pounds it's probably a very good time to sell it and buy US Dollars, that's what everyone else in the world is doing.

That's just the propaganda. The USD is worse off than the Pound. The Euro just as bad. They are heading towards their intrinsic value.

I was about to say that you were wrong but then I just checked for the first time in a while, it seems that USD/THB has just taken a big hit in the past twenty four hours and is indeed going down quite sharply. All my attention was on GBP/USD and I was not paying attention to USD/THB, nasty indeed.

Down 1% in 3 days time. Got Thai assets?

One years worth but was planning on using USD as my GBP hedge and my THB hedge, now it seems it's only good for GBP - perhaps have to go SGD.

Edited March 2, 2010 by chiang mai

[Neeranam]

Down 1% in 3 days time. Got Thai assets?

Should I be selling my gold and putting the baht in my UK bank?

[bwalker1973]

According to my friends in New York, if labour swing it in again, you can expect a major sell off in the pound, causing the pound to drop to $1.05 within the next 3 months. Because all the people are wondering how labour are going to fix the deficit, and a lot of people thinking if labour get in again they will cripple the UK.

You can see the pound going to around 30 - 35 baht.

I received info on this in december 2009, so transfered a bit to see me through. Now my USD will become more valuable.

Even the Euro is on sell mode today, expect the euro to drop as well against thai baht.

Edited March 2, 2010 by bwalker1973

[cavelight]

Going down by the hour... now 47.76 at Krungsri... I dreaded this situation - freefall without a parachute. OMG. OMG.

[chiang mai]

Going down by the hour... now 47.76 at Krungsri... I dreaded this situation - freefall without a parachute. OMG. OMG.

The wire transfer rate at Bangkok Bank is 48.63. http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

[richy2201]

If the magnificent pound sterling goes any lower I may have to take drastic action.....something I vowed I would only do in the event of a catastrophic breakdown....a "Plan C" as you will......

Relegate my Beer Bar 60Bht Premiership "Tiger Beer" to the Vauxhall Conference's 45Bht Leo. Alternatively I could ship across a few crates of Tennents's Super and sit on the beach all day and night smiling at the fact that at least Im not freezing my nuts off back at the local park!!! .....Every Cloud and all that.....

Harsh times. Harsh times indeed.

[marshbags]

YIPPEE

Good news for me - I'm going to the UK this month.

Also, when I send money home to my mother, she gets more.

It isn't too bad for the pensioners - it was only 37 baht to the pound when I first came here in 1992.

It might make a few of the undesirable stay away from here, or go back too.

Your post is total rubbish.

Back in the early 90s the cost of living in Thailand was less than a quarter compared with today`s prices and Thai bank interest rates reached a high of 13%. Plus only 150000 baht was required for a one year Non Immigrant visa.

With an amount of 1 million baht in the bank, you could very comfortably live on the interest without tapping into the capital or need to bring over more money.

Things have changed dramatically and it`s going to be financially down hill from now on.

Spot on BW.

Neeranam, you need to engage your brain before making such comments.

The cost as BW says for everything has increased to accomodate the higher rates that followed after the crash.

There was a 15% interest on my deposit at the then T. Farmers on Pattaya Klang.

Gold was 4000 baht for 1 baht and petrol 7 baht a litre.

It was difficult to transfer money as facilities were very limited and costly.

Property, buying and renting was far less than it is now.

Also as pointed out and very important the visa requirements were over 500% less to get.

More importantly the restrictions on anything immigration connected was a lot easier that they are now.

You appear to be totally unfamiliar with then and now ...................not to bad now for pensioners in comparison with as against then, is what you saying.

By the way accounts in the U.K. and practically all other countries foreigners come from, could also make 15% on their deposits and investments also, and more in some scenario,s,which was a nice little earner for us.

As for the little pleasure in life at the time WOWWWWWWWWWW

WALOB,s , your post is this time, I,m bound to say.

marshbags by your ignorance on reality.

Edited March 2, 2010 by marshbags

[caf]

Exactly why so many people think that the Baht is kept strong through artificially through intervention is beyond me, the reality is that the BOT utilises its reserves periodically to weaken the Baht - the stated objectives of the BOT are to keep the Baht at the midpoint of a basket of regional currencies and to ensure there are no sudden and large scale swings against the US Dollar. As regional currencies strengthen against USD then so the Baht is allowed to increase its value also, otherwise, the main effort is to try and keep the lid on the currency lest it becomes too strong and as such, uncompetitive. Remember, BOT has foreign reserves in excess of USD $135 bill. and has positive balances in all categories - fortunately THB is not a major currency hence it does not cost central bank very much to control its value.

We are considering two currencies in this thread. So it is perfectly proper to discuss why the pound is weak and that the central bank can and does control the baht.

As Slim would probably agree

caf

And that's fine Caf, just so long as we all understand that the central bank of Thailand does not intervene in the Forex markets to keep the Baht strong.

"the central bank of Thailand does not intervene in the Forex markets to keep the Baht strong." No comment, chiangmai

caf

[SantiSuk]

UK reminds me of 1979, the last time we got rid of a Labour generation. Same 'sick man of Europe', same dire exchange position (not quite yet as bad as 79 though) and rubbish on the street (last time due to bin men striking, this time due to cheap alcohol policies ).

Unfortunately the new guy has none of the vision or bottle of Mrs Thatcher, who singlehandedly gave us 20-30 years of growing prosperity in a sea of systemic post-industrial decline. OK - I know she was hopelessly undemocratic too (I'm talking GLC more than miners) and eventually lost all touch with reality ala poll tax - all power corrupts or drives you bonkers.

I have to smile when Brits on TV talk about the risks of putting your money into Thailand. Get real, the real risk is leaving all your money in the moribund economies of Falangland. Canada and Australia should be ok due to natural resources and the US may be ok in the long run due to high motivation and first mover technology, but the rest? Invest (broadly) in Asia young man.

[CHdiver]

I think its time that Great Britain gets People wearing Red and Yellow Shirts, blocking the Airport, take a exPrime Minister to court and bomb some Banks. Thailand is showing that this is the way to strengthen the currency.

[Naam]

The Pound and the Euro are in deep trouble and it will get worse!

nobody seems to notice that the "SuperBaht" strengthened vs. US-Dollar too? in five years from 42.20 to now 32.63!

[mamborobert]

The Pound and the Euro are in deep trouble and it will get worse!

nobody seems to notice that the "SuperBaht" strengthened vs. US-Dollar too? in five years from 42.20 to now 32.63!

It aint really the SuperBaht...its just the UK and a few other Euro currencies have gone down very sharply in the last six months, and all indications are that there is further to fall.

The US Dollar went down has goen down against the Baht by 3.5% in the last six months.

In six months the Pound has gone down 10.48% against the Baht. In the same period the Australian Dollar has gone up 5.18%.

In the last six months the Australian Dollar has gone up 17.49% against the pound and is perhaps looking at parity with the US Dollar this year ...especially after the Reserve Bank in Australia raised official interest rates again today.

Like an earlier poster mentioned...good days ahead for the Australian and Canadian Dollars...and it will be a long long time till we have the Great back in Great Britain...Greece, Ireland, Iceland and Spain are basket cases altogether...and that list is getting bigger as well

Edited March 2, 2010 by mamborobert

[Jonesy99]

From a contrarian perspective, sentiment against the USD is so extreme that you have to bet on a rally.

If USD debt gets paid down (deficits contract) then that is a net contraction in the USD money supply - and if the supply of something drops, it's price goes up.

Everyone is busy shorting the dollar because of the deficits, perfect set up for a rally.

Similar scenario for GBP but i'd say wait a bit - whichever gov't gets in will have to address the deficits but it won't happen til after the election.

...Though I could be completely wrong

[lazygourmet]

Euro drop from 49 to 44 baht...

Superbaht??

When the euro started, we had THB 38.5...

I am still calculating with this figure. Same as with my old Belgian who were -almost- on the same level than Thai baht (1 franc=1 baht).

At least, I am sleeping well at night.

[mamborobert]

From a contrarian perspective, sentiment against the USD is so extreme that you have to bet on a rally.

If USD debt gets paid down (deficits contract) then that is a net contraction in the USD money supply - and if the supply of something drops, it's price goes up.

Everyone is busy shorting the dollar because of the deficits, perfect set up for a rally.

Similar scenario for GBP but i'd say wait a bit - whichever gov't gets in will have to address the deficits but it won't happen til after the election.

...Though I could be completely wrong

Jeez I like your optimism but it borders on outright lunacy.

Right now most US debt is owned by the Chinese....and every time overtures get made towards the Dalai Llama or Taiwan, China threatens to dump the US dollar which woud basically ruin it. This is why the US wants China to float their currency. The moment they do so literally billions in US debt gets wiped out.

[Jonesy99]

Valid points, time will tell.

After 12 years working in Investment Banking I can assure you it will either go up or down

[Loz]

I for one cannot see myself going home to the UK even at this rate of £ to Baht.

Too many prices in the UK are inflated, like Gas, Electric, food and more. So what if a T-shirt costs more here? How often do we buy those as opposed to gas, electric and food?

I can still live reasonably well in Thailand even at 45 Baht - £. It is often a case of cutting the cloth to fit and if that means curbing some excesses from my daily / weekly lifestyle, then so be it. What is one less night out in the pub here saving 500 Baht + a week and that compensates for the fluctuations in the £ / Baht.

Luckily I do not have to pay for sex. I go to the local market for my food and I am happy to cook at home. The car runs on LPG and is economical. I also have a g/f who understands the £ is not too good at the moment and she is also happy to cut back on any excess.

Wth prudence surely we can manage quite well here. So, be prudent.

People say I'm a dreamer. But I'm not the only one...

[elliss]

Neeranam says if the baht drops further then some of the undesirables will be kept away or go home.Does that mean if your pension is not high you are an undesirable?

you are as good, as your wallet.

whatever your age ..

is anybody really suprised the ,,, G.B.P. {good bog paper }

is going down the pan rapidly.the writing has been on the wall , for a very long time.

job,s going from the U.K. to asia ,

bank execitives , robbing the banks , and getting a bonus , from the goverment .

etc... etc..

WAKE UP

us poor farangs

[Naam]

After 12 years working in Investment Banking I can assure you it will either go up or down...

...except when it moves sideways

[w11guy]

The last couple of pages of this thread tells the story:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Pound-Starti...64#entry3379764

If you've got money in Pounds it's probably a very good time to sell it and buy US Dollars, that's what everyone else in the world is doing.

The good time to sell was ayear ago when you could get over $2 to the £. It's not a good time to buy the $US after the collapse has taken place. The £GBP may fall further but most of the fall has already taken place. Already down for $2.10 to $1.50ish.

And don't forget that in Jan 2009 the Daily Mail was predicting the £ would got to $1.20 by the summer of 2009. In fact, the £ rose to close to $1.70.

The papers only pile in AFTER the event and add a bit more on to frighten people. They have no idea what is happening. If it's obvious that the £ is going to $1.20 then become a currency trader and you will make millions in a very short time.

It's not that easy. The £ could just as easily strengthen.

A lot of yesterday's drop was to do with Prudential buying AIA. They have to pay in $US, so need to sell lots of £s.

The £ will bounce back.

[Naam]

Right now most US debt is owned by the Chinese....and every time overtures get made towards the Dalai Llama or Taiwan, China threatens to dump the US dollar which woud basically ruin it. This is why the US wants China to float their currency. The moment they do so literally billions in US debt gets wiped out.

is this what the tooth fairy whispered in your ear last night?

for the record (and the not so informed)... CNY floating and revaluating does not take a single cent of U.S. debt. you can dance a mambo on that

[cmsally]

The last couple of pages of this thread tells the story:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Pound-Starti...64#entry3379764

If you've got money in Pounds it's probably a very good time to sell it and buy US Dollars, that's what everyone else in the world is doing.

The good time to sell was ayear ago when you could get over $2 to the £. It's not a good time to buy the $US after the collapse has taken place. The £GBP may fall further but most of the fall has already taken place. Already down for $2.10 to $1.50ish.

And don't forget that in Jan 2009 the Daily Mail was predicting the £ would got to $1.20 by the summer of 2009. In fact, the £ rose to close to $1.70.

The papers only pile in AFTER the event and add a bit more on to frighten people. They have no idea what is happening. If it's obvious that the £ is going to $1.20 then become a currency trader and you will make millions in a very short time.

It's not that easy. The £ could just as easily strengthen.

A lot of yesterday's drop was to do with Prudential buying AIA. They have to pay in $US, so need to sell lots of £s.

The £ will bounce back.

I agree I think a big factor was the Pru buying AIA with some sticky fingers in the pie maybe making some aquisitions in GBP while it is cheap.

According to my what goes down theory, after this we will probably go up.

I know just about as much as the guy with years of experience in investment banking!

[Naam]

The Pound and the Euro are in deep trouble and it will get worse!

nobody seems to notice that the "SuperBaht" strengthened vs. US-Dollar too? in five years from 42.20 to now 32.63!

It aint really the SuperBaht...its just the UK and a few other Euro currencies have gone down very sharply in the last six months, and all indications are that there is further to fall.

The US Dollar went down has goen down against the Baht by 3.5% in the last six months.

In six months the Pound has gone down 10.48% against the Baht. In the same period the Australian Dollar has gone up 5.18%.

In the last six months the Australian Dollar has gone up 17.49% against the pound and is perhaps looking at parity with the US Dollar this year ...especially after the Reserve Bank in Australia raised official interest rates again today.

Like an earlier poster mentioned...good days ahead for the Australian and Canadian Dollars...and it will be a long long time till we have the Great back in Great Britain...Greece, Ireland, Iceland and Spain are basket cases altogether...and that list is getting bigger as well

the last six months are not representative. bottom line is that the Baht has strengthened vs. most major currencies during the last five years.

re: "In the same period the Australian Dollar has gone up 5.18%" after falling more than 30% vs. Baht in the second half of 2008 from ~32 to 22.

next mambo please!

[jackr]

Some have made comments on this thread about "going home." WHY???? If you can't afford Thailand, just move next door. Vietnam is a lot cheaper than Thailand.

Not much fun if you're an avid cross-country runner, though.

Pound 52 next week, 55+ by July

[mamborobert]

Right now most US debt is owned by the Chinese....and every time overtures get made towards the Dalai Llama or Taiwan, China threatens to dump the US dollar which woud basically ruin it. This is why the US wants China to float their currency. The moment they do so literally billions in US debt gets wiped out.

is this what the tooth fairy whispered in your ear last night?

for the record (and the not so informed)... CNY floating and revaluating does not take a single cent of U.S. debt. you can dance a mambo on that

True enough...it does not take a cent of the actual debt, it does however takes billions off the repayments and interest that the US pays, and also redresses the trade imbalance. The trade imbalance is what contributes to growing US debt (to China specifically).

A few more years and you will be speaking Mandarin

And if you want to know what your mum whispered to me last night, give her a call. She misses you and always likes to hear from you.