Red Shirts To March On Bangkok Streets Again

[Jerrytheyoung]

All part of attempts to induce a reaction. Foreign analysis over the weekend that Abhisit had the upper hand by just sitting around doing nothing and waiting the rally out is hard to fault. Like the PAD the reds need an event but cant directly create it themselves so they will continue to goad.

Bangkokians will become angry at some point even if they arent now, which isnt really clear

There will also be lots of other attempts to wind up the military etc

Humm... Discussions are now on going in the factories, in the Universities, and in the villages. A dynamic momentum is building up, maybe a little more demonstration to speed up the trend , then they have time because the next election is virtually won. Consequently, the coalition MPs will realise that they have to change their stances to keep their business (and their revenues). The coalition will disintegrate ....

Once the momentum is on track, the demonstration can end...The MPs of the coalition will become very nervous soon

[moresomekl]

Just make fresh elections, we'll see.

Fresh elections would require a few things.

1) Agreements to cease all vote-buying efforts by all parties - punishments are already proscribed by law

2) All candidates must be able to campaign freely in every area without fear of harassment or violence. It will be up to the redshirts to guarantee this in their regions. Previous groups entering their strongholds have been victims of death threats, pelting with fermented fish, and machete attacks. This is a huge condition that must be met before any election can be scheduled.

3) Then there is the Thaksin question. There must be iron-clad agreements to cease all political attempts to exonerate Thaksin. The courts have authority in this and political meddling is unacceptable. This is probably the deal breaker for both sides. The reds won't do it. The Dems, military, and most educated society won't tolerate a Thaksin whitewash. Stalemate.

4) Not necessary or likely, but it would be good to have international observers at the next election to guarantee against electoral fraud.

If these conditions could be met elections would likely go forward in a matter of months.

What you say sounds to me fair , reasonable and balanced . If agreed between red shirts and the government , then election should proceed as soon as possible and meanwhile the red shirts go back home .

Perhaps Abhisit should propose that to the red shirts ? As honest thais in their majority i think , for sure they cannot fail to see the stalemate and the damage it does .

[hammered]

Just make fresh elections, we'll see.

Fresh elections would require a few things.

1) Agreements to cease all vote-buying efforts by all parties - punishments are already proscribed by law

2) All candidates must be able to campaign freely in every area without fear of harassment or violence. It will be up to the redshirts to guarantee this in their regions. Previous groups entering their strongholds have been victims of death threats, pelting with fermented fish, and machete attacks. This is a huge condition that must be met before any election can be scheduled.

3) Then there is the Thaksin question. There must be iron-clad agreements to cease all political attempts to exonerate Thaksin. The courts have authority in this and political meddling is unacceptable. This is probably the deal breaker for both sides. The reds won't do it. The Dems, military, and most educated society won't tolerate a Thaksin whitewash. Stalemate.

4) Not necessary or likely, but it would be good to have international observers at the next election to guarantee against electoral fraud.

If these conditions could be met elections would likely go forward in a matter of months.

What you say sounds to me fair , reasonable and balanced . If agreed between red shirts and the government , then election should proceed as soon as possible and meanwhile the red shirts go back home .

Perhaps Abhisit should propose that to the red shirts ? As honest thais in their majority i think , for sure they cannot fail to see the stalemate and the damage it does .

It is a very reasonable proposal

[webfact]

Related topic

Security Law to be extend

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thailand-Ext...tr-t349570.html

[anotherpeter]

Humm... Discussions are now on going in the factories, in the Universities, and in the villages. A dynamic momentum is building up, maybe a little more demonstration to speed up the trend , then they have time because the next election is virtually won. Consequently, the coalition MPs will realise that they have to change their stances to keep their business (and their revenues). The coalition will disintegrate ....

Once the momentum is on track, the demonstration can end...The MPs of the coalition will become very nervous soon

I don't think any of us can currently predict the outcome of the next election, whether it was held soon or as planned in 2011.

It could be close between the Thaksin party and the Democrats with the smaller parties holding the balance of power.

Who is the current Thaksin party? Peau Thai? Haven't they avoided involvement in the reds protests? Will this effect their standing in the next election? Will a new Thaksin party be created?

The smaller parties are not supporting the Thaksin protests or the PT party now. How will that effect the vote in their electorates in the next election? Did they previously campaign to support the PPP or not to support them? How will they campaign next time round?

I think the only thing that can be predicted with certainty is that if any future government tries to whitewash the charges against Thaksin and get him back here to lead the country, there will be many more people on the streets than there are protesting now.

[Wolfie]

Off Topic posts have been removed. Please stay on topic - thanks!

[moresomekl]

Off Topic posts have been removed. Please stay on topic - thanks!

Alright

[Ricardo]

I don't think any of us can currently predict the outcome of the next election, whether it was held soon or as planned in 2011.

It could be close between the Thaksin party and the Democrats with the smaller parties holding the balance of power.

Who is the current Thaksin party? Peau Thai? Haven't they avoided involvement in the reds protests? Will this effect their standing in the next election? Will a new Thaksin party be created?

The smaller parties are not supporting the Thaksin protests or the PT party now. How will that effect the vote in their electorates in the next election? Did they previously campaign to support the PPP or not to support them? How will they campaign next time round?

I think the only thing that can be predicted with certainty is that if any future government tries to whitewash the charges against Thaksin and get him back here to lead the country, there will be many more people on the streets than there are protesting now.

PTP do indeed seem to be following the Democrats actions, during the PAD-led protests in 2008, by standing aside and keeping their hands clean.

They perhaps hope to avoid having the DAAD/UDD/whatever follow the example of PAD/NPP, by forming a new political-party, in time for the next election. And are probably also wrangling internally over who their leader will be. Is there another family-member waiting in the wings ?

Edited March 22, 2010 by Ricardo

[Jingthing]

Maybe if these protesters concentrated a little more on their personal business rather than these constant street parties, they wouldn't be so poor.

[BigBikeBKK]

Reds rallies peaked somewhere at 100.000. Wow, impressive crowd...

But in a country of 60+ million, it means 1 out of 600 habitants was in the street that day.

If any advocates it's enough to oust a government, then he must be ready to see 15 different governments per week.

Thailand has indeed a human potential for about 2 similar protests per day (60M/100K/365days) if you spread them all over the year.

I know I round a little, that toddlers are hardly expected to rally and that for each demonstrator there may be several sympathisers but the rationale remains.

ps: actually, the real question is: except Who-We-Know, who's ready to buy so many protesters for the next one?

Your dear Yellows are even less and do not represent more than 5% of the population (I don't want to insult Thai people telling yellow are more than 5%) but they managed to invade the house of Government, the airports, force a new alliance. This was undemocratic.

Just make fresh elections, we'll see.

Why do you and so many other Red sympathizers assume that an anti-red comment equals pro-yellow support?

If you read the public opinion surveys you'll note the the majority of the population is NOT pro-Red OR pro-Yellow; rather most are tired of all this bs and want it to end and the country to move forward.

The Yellows were a major inconvenience and cost many of us a lot of us business and money with their airport stand-in, but they never resorted to violence of the type we saw perpetrated by the Reds last Songkran.

The reds have put forward some ideas with merit but as long as they choose to keep a convicted homophobic fugitive criminal as their leader they will never achieve their goals.

Peace!

[britmaveric]

I think the reds should do this every weekend, simply put why not?

[bacchanal]

Once again, congrats to the Red Shirts for keeping things peaceful. And while the blood thing was nasty and wrong, it was at least a non-violent act that succeeded in getting them some international press (although perhaps not the type they wanted).

To that end, one of the largest international news publisher has selected the UDD's blood-pouring protest as top of the 10 most bizarre protests in the history of the world.

A hearty well-done to the red lunatics comes from the Christian Science Monitor.

[Wolfie]

The Yellows were a major inconvenience and cost many of us a lot of us business and money with their airport stand-in, but they never resorted to violence of the type we saw perpetrated by the Reds last Songkran.

Actually they did - i dont remember which thread it was but someone posted a link to a YouTube video that showed some pretty horrific stuff that happened during the Yellow Shirt Protests, small arms (hand guns) - beating people - setting fire to cars/motorbikes - all nasty stuff!

I agree with your other point tho - Anti-Red does not mean Pro-Yellow

[Jingthing]

Why do you and so many other Red sympathizers assume that an anti-red comment equals pro-yellow support?

That is the key element of the red shirts talking points. They won't stop it as it is one of their most effective propaganda tactics. It is also completely false.

[Who, me ?]

Bring me any red shirt able to prove he/she knows Exim is not an exotic dish and Temasek a DIY brand and I will start to listen to him/her.

Until then, I just see them as manipulated folks serving the cause of a greedy, dictator-to-be billionaire on the run. They simply do not understand the game they are used for.

My factory staff is tuned all day long on a red shirts radio. Speechs would make you feel like you were listening to a Rwandese radio days before it went ugly.

Not good to insult the people.

By the way, when we, French, made the revolution in 1789, I'm pretty sure that some wise men like you told "the populace will never be able to manage the country". But we did! With difficulties yes but France is now a proud country with a stable government.

Same in USA when they expelled the British.

Ahahahaha, what a load of b*ll*cks.....

Just have to see how France has reacted during last week end election to see that it's a stable country....So stable that NOTHING can move forward in this country. Proud country...Proud of what?

Please, let your "patriotisme" aside for a minute, and do not bring this to this Thai topic. Both countries are so different, and times are different too.... Yes, the red shirts supporters / protesters are manipulated. How do you feel about their leader being so rich, now on the run, giving speeches from Dubai or Montenegro, comfortably nested in a 5* star condo or hotel room, eating cakes, while his so loyal subjects are sweating under the sun for a few bucks ? Just because those few bucks are better than their ordinary income while home! But, face the truth, what's going to happen IF those Taksin goonies win? Will the people be better? Surely the race for money, profit, and tailored laws will be on again, and surely not for the well being of the farmers !!!!

[bacchanal]

So the number of demonstrators currently involved is significant and the event has to be taken into account. The debate on the figures is of poor interest.

Yes, best to quickly gloss over the pathetic turnout in relation to the proclaimed "Million Man March".

If this sort of farcical and blatant lies emanating from the red leaders is any indication of what they will be like during the proposed peace talks, it's hopeless for the red side. But then again, they aren't interested in negotiating.

Taking into account that the Center of Gravity of the demonstration is shifted to "Class war" and no more centralised on Thaksin, the movement is going to take more momentum ....

Really? When did that happen? It's still all about Thaksin. Remove him from their "campaign" entirely and then they can start fresh with other issues.

Edited March 22, 2010 by bacchanal

[petebkk]

We will see...

What is the ratio of yeast in pastry for making a bread?

In the events of May 68, it started by a demonstration of 150 Students the 22 Mars, the 6 May 20,000 demonstrators, but the 13 may they were one million only, the peak of the events, then only 400,000 (and 800,000 as De Gaulle supporters) France population is about similar to Thailand one

So the number of demonstrators currently involved is significant and the event has to be taken into account. The debate on the figures is of poor interest.

In the demonstrator interviews, (The Nation as well as BP), it appears that most of demonstrators have financed on their own their venue.

Taking into account that the Center of Gravity of the demonstration is shifted to "Class war" and no more centralised on Thaksin, the movement is going to take more momentum ....

Why stop at "class war"? How about "global warming"? That will surely bring out more people on the street. If I carry this line of thought this is a bigger cause, affecting everybody. The whole country will be on the street. If they're going to hide the interest of one fugitive kleptomaniac under the veil of 'class war', why don't they hide it under something much bigger and more impressive.

[Jerrytheyoung]

Why stop at "class war"? How about "global warming"? That will surely bring out more people on the street. If I carry this line of thought this is a bigger cause, affecting everybody. The whole country will be on the street. If they're going to hide the interest of one fugitive kleptomaniac under the veil of 'class war', why don't they hide it under something much bigger and more impressive.

Sure global warning will attract a lot of people... As a Demonstration the thread about the Global Warning affecting Thailand is now in page 2 of the current clippings... Rush to post in in order to maintain it at the first page, they need your input...

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Global-Warmi...ce-t337065.html

[craig123]

Haha... Reading all these replies make me laugh. Really going to town on the detail!

They'll be gone soon, the time will come when they don't get paid (because let's be honest I think a large number of them are doing it for the $) and then they'll all go home. And that will be that.

A week or two, tops I give it!!

[moresomekl]

If the red shirts continue to press for an amnesty for Thaksin , there are going to loose the symphaty of world public opinion .

The BBC is wondering what are they after , better opportunities for themselves , or the return of Mr T .

In any case Thaksin subject is in the hands of the courts and any governement can not interfere with the courts .

Unlike when Thaksin was in charge .

[Tatsujin]

Bring me any red shirt able to prove he/she knows Exim is not an exotic dish and Temasek a DIY brand and I will start to listen to him/her.

Until then, I just see them as manipulated folks serving the cause of a greedy, dictator-to-be billionaire on the run. They simply do not understand the game they are used for.

My factory staff is tuned all day long on a red shirts radio. Speechs would make you feel like you were listening to a Rwandese radio days before it went ugly.

Wow . . . someone has a high opinion (not) of his Thai staff . . .

[Footloose1949]

I don't like the man or some of his financial activities in the past, though I'd guess a fair number of other politicians (regardless of their political pursuasion) have used their positions to line their pockets whilst in office ...

I'd guess the main underlying issue the Red-shirts are campaigning for, is a reduction in the difference in incomes between the farmer's incomes and those in the cities. Thakasin, as far as they are concerned, began to address their grievences, so logic tells me, if the present government also addressed these issues, Thakasin's influence would be largely defused. I suppose this happening depends on the present political party having the courage to put aside some of their 'Holy Cows' and address what has probably been a decades-long issue.

However, I am a Falang and have little knowlege of the historical background of Thailand.

[traderjm]

But, no. They even got people abusing them in some areas.

I think next week there will be even more abusing them.

Once the announcement was made they plan to march again next Saturday a hastily made flyer to plan a meeting in my village arrived on all the gates. It seems if they plan to venture into our little slice of Bangkapi again next Saturday they will NOT be met with waves and they will not be able to pass without a lot of extra effort. Some in the meeting are suggesting we look into hiring Private Security to bar them from entering the area at all. I doubt they (the Reds) could possibly be stupid enough to tempt fate again by taking the same route, but if they do there will be a very different greeting from areas like ours that have already been through this nonsense once... time to pack up the smelly fish and sticky rice and go home.

[tilac2]

Bring me any red shirt able to prove he/she knows Exim is not an exotic dish and Temasek a DIY brand and I will start to listen to him/her.

Until then, I just see them as manipulated folks serving the cause of a greedy, dictator-to-be billionaire on the run. They simply do not understand the game they are used for.

My factory staff is tuned all day long on a red shirts radio. Speechs would make you feel like you were listening to a Rwandese radio days before it went ugly.

Not good to insult the people.

By the way, when we, French, made the revolution in 1789, I'm pretty sure that some wise men like you told "the populace will never be able to manage the country". But we did! With difficulties yes but France is now a proud country with a stable government.

Same in USA when they expelled the British.

What are you Croaking about..??????

He's 'croaking' some good points. But I hope and believe that Thais -- being the tolerant and amenable people that they are -- will find a way to sort this out without revolution. The social conditions behind all this are well summarised in the Bangkok Post today:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/econom...closing-the-gap

This states that Thailand is one of the most unequal countries in Asia, with the top 20% owning 69% of the wealth, while the bottom 20% have only 1%. Then look at the figures for annual income per capita broken down by region: the northeast is way below the other regions, though of course there are poor people in all parts of the country. The reds have an excellent case; the only argument I'd have with them is over their choice of leader, but Thaksin is the only leader who ever did anything for these ignored people. It might be nice if some of you (relatively) rich farangs stop insulting the reds and their supporters, calling them country bumpkins or whatever. These people have a good case and know what they're doing. They just want a chance to vote and then have the result respected. The same chance that many of us have in our countries.

[morphem]

Once again, congrats to the Red Shirts for keeping things peaceful. And while the blood thing was nasty and wrong, it was at least a non-violent act that succeeded in getting them some international press (although perhaps not the type they wanted).

However they don't seem to have sort of end game. Its clear they aren't going to get what they originally wanted, or what they pretended to want. What do they hope to achieve?

democracy instead of military dictatorship

Simple as that

[britmaveric]

But, no. They even got people abusing them in some areas.

I think next week there will be even more abusing them.

Once the announcement was made they plan to march again next Saturday a hastily made flyer to plan a meeting in my village arrived on all the gates. It seems if they plan to venture into our little slice of Bangkapi again next Saturday they will NOT be met with waves and they will not be able to pass without a lot of extra effort. Some in the meeting are suggesting we look into hiring Private Security to bar them from entering the area at all. I doubt they (the Reds) could possibly be stupid enough to tempt fate again by taking the same route, but if they do there will be a very different greeting from areas like ours that have already been through this nonsense once... time to pack up the smelly fish and sticky rice and go home.

Sounds like you want to provoke violence to a peaceful protest....

[anotherpeter]

Once again, congrats to the Red Shirts for keeping things peaceful. And while the blood thing was nasty and wrong, it was at least a non-violent act that succeeded in getting them some international press (although perhaps not the type they wanted).

However they don't seem to have sort of end game. Its clear they aren't going to get what they originally wanted, or what they pretended to want. What do they hope to achieve?

democracy instead of military dictatorship

Simple as that

It's not a military dictatorship now. There were elections.

It's more of a democracy now than it was under Thaksin.

Yes, not every one will be happy until there are elections. But to have free and fair elections, which is what the reds want, they need to make sure everyone can campaign freely and everyone can vote without someone looking over their shoulder.

[anotherpeter]

Once the announcement was made they plan to march again next Saturday a hastily made flyer to plan a meeting in my village arrived on all the gates. It seems if they plan to venture into our little slice of Bangkapi again next Saturday they will NOT be met with waves and they will not be able to pass without a lot of extra effort. Some in the meeting are suggesting we look into hiring Private Security to bar them from entering the area at all. I doubt they (the Reds) could possibly be stupid enough to tempt fate again by taking the same route, but if they do there will be a very different greeting from areas like ours that have already been through this nonsense once... time to pack up the smelly fish and sticky rice and go home.

Sounds like you want to provoke violence to a peaceful protest....

So one group is allowed to protest, but another isn't? Can't they protest that they are sick of their lives being disrupted?

[morphem]

By the way, when we, French, made the revolution in 1789, I'm pretty sure that some wise men like you told "the populace will never be able to manage the country". But we did! With difficulties yes but France is now a proud country with a stable government.

Same in USA when they expelled the British.

Different continents but many similarities indeed

True Democracy doesn't come easy

But the reds in BKK won't back down now, they seem to be just the tip of the iceberg.

[tangcoral]

Reds rallies peaked somewhere at 100.000. Wow, impressive crowd...

But in a country of 60+ million, it means 1 out of 600 habitants was in the street that day.

If any advocates it's enough to oust a government, then he must be ready to see 15 different governments per week.

Thailand has indeed a human potential for about 2 similar protests per day (60M/100K/365days) if you spread them all over the year.

I know I round a little, that toddlers are hardly expected to rally and that for each demonstrator there may be several sympathisers but the rationale remains.

ps: actually, the real question is: except Who-We-Know, who's ready to buy so many protesters for the next one?

100,0000+ gathering is pretty impressive considering the circumstance these people had to travel many hundreds of kilometers considering their socioeconomic bakground. You name me a protest in USA that gathered more than 1:600 ratio in recent times.