Spreaders of Conspiracy Theories: Unmasking the Motivations Behind the Lies

[jaideeguy]

Was it a week ago when the Thai stock market was experiencing a surge and reports were that it was mostly by foreign investments. Makes me wonder which side they were betting on winning??

A week+ ago the pot was simmering with the redshirts protesting and it seemed to me that things could get nasty and stock market could crash before the sh$t hit the fan.

Could someone enlighten me as to which side the foreign money was betting on winning??

[midas]

jaideeguy it made such little sense to me also.

But then which stock " markets " anywhere make sense today ?

I was even wondering if the Thai government had come up with their

own version of the Plunge Protection Team modelled on US

Edited April 11, 2010 by midas

[jaideeguy]

Yeah, to my uninformed perception, it seemed like 'the perfect storm' for disaster whoever won.......seems also to me that LOS is such a shakey place to invest most times, especially now!!

So, why is the thb still strong??

[wordchild]

weight of money, all the SE Asian markets have been strong ; clearly some investors feel the Thai market is cheap. not sure they will be quite so sanguine after the last couple of days expect the market to come off a bit tomorow!

[sokal]

Balance sheet investors. I happen to be one of them but I have not invested in the last 6 months. The balance sheet looks good so piss on the politics.

[zorro1]

Thai set has out performed nearly every other market last 9 months. I will be buying big time after this pull back

[IMA_FARANG]

Easy to explain, but the capitalists on here don't dare to say it.

The SET is controlled by cliques of the very rich.

It doesn't really matter who wins and who loses in the current political turmoil, because whoever does win will be from the same ilk...money is thicker than politics.

Thaksin and cronies are just another group of rich Chinese/Thais. Anyhow it has nothing to do with ethnicity,all nationalities and races are welcome, having money is the only key.

Foriegn money, Thai money, Asian money, whatever...it's all about money.

The one thing that you can be sure is that those who have money will do all they can to control the SET...and any other financial institutions they can...for their own profit.

But don't worry; as the small investor you can pick up a few of the scraps the big boys happen to overlook....rather like the coackroaches at a picnic...scurrying out from the cracks in the wall to pick up a tasty crumb dropped by the humans eating their sweet cakes.

But watch out for them, because if they do see you, they will squash you like the creeping crawling bug you are.

[Irene]

Good question!

The major reason is the common expectation of Baht strength. It could hit 31 by end year. Therefore if you bring in US dollars now with baht at 32.8, an exchange gain of 1.8 would result, 5% gain for "certain" plus the prospect of capital gain of undervalued stocks in Thailand, especially banks and energy.

With the above advantage, the reds did not affect the foreign demand of the Thai stocks at all until the crash with the army two days ago. Good stock investors do not take side. They weigh not one area of risk but an overall risk. Before the confrontation, the foreigners believed that the currency advantage and especially IMF's expected growth rate for Thailand at 6.5% gave them opportunities to make big profits in Thailand while the locals especially the institutions each day kept on saying that it was hot money and could be liquidated any day. So the locals were the only group in the past 30 days the net sellers to the foreigners as net buyers. However, the scene started to change on Thursday and Friday when foreigners were the net sellers. Why? I think the answer is panic selling. The political scene was quite frightening from CNN reports especially this weekend. So, the crunch is today, whether it will go worse with panic selling from foreigners after 30-day accumulation of buyings. The likely scenario is an early drop of 1% to 2% then recover with marginal gain by midday and by afternoon, the trend will depend on foreigners' preference in the morning. Believe me, Thailand stock index has been almost completely dictated by foreign trading and the locals have been dazed with the huge fall in 2008, 46% drop and completely lack of direction.

If foreigners believe that this political havoc is temporary, they will keep on with buying when the political scene has settled down, either dissolution or pm's resignation. The Thailand economic scene has been so unbelievably strong but under-reported by the local press. This should enhance their beliefs that baht should be stronger irrespective of the central bank's intervention.

I think aloud for others to correct my reading and not meant to be a prophecy.

[midas]

Good question!

The major reason is the common expectation of Baht strength. It could hit 31 by end year. Therefore if you bring in US dollars now with baht at 32.8, an exchange gain of 1.8 would result, 5% gain for "certain" plus the prospect of capital gain of undervalued stocks in Thailand, especially banks and energy.

With the above advantage, the reds did not affect the foreign demand of the Thai stocks at all until the crash with the army two days ago. Good stock investors do not take side. They weigh not one area of risk but an overall risk. Before the confrontation, the foreigners believed that the currency advantage and especially IMF's expected growth rate for Thailand at 6.5% gave them opportunities to make big profits in Thailand while the locals especially the institutions each day kept on saying that it was hot money and could be liquidated any day. So the locals were the only group in the past 30 days the net sellers to the foreigners as net buyers. However, the scene started to change on Thursday and Friday when foreigners were the net sellers. Why? I think the answer is panic selling. The political scene was quite frightening from CNN reports especially this weekend. So, the crunch is today, whether it will go worse with panic selling from foreigners after 30-day accumulation of buyings. The likely scenario is an early drop of 1% to 2% then recover with marginal gain by midday and by afternoon, the trend will depend on foreigners' preference in the morning. Believe me, Thailand stock index has been almost completely dictated by foreign trading and the locals have been dazed with the huge fall in 2008, 46% drop and completely lack of direction.

If foreigners believe that this political havoc is temporary, they will keep on with buying when the political scene has settled down, either dissolution or pm's resignation. The Thailand economic scene has been so unbelievably strong but under-reported by the local press. This should enhance their beliefs that baht should be stronger irrespective of the central bank's intervention.

I think aloud for others to correct my reading and not meant to be a prophecy.

Interesting summary ....

And how do you think the market would react should this happen :-

( in this mornings Nation )

" Anti-democratic elements are lurking. Whether or not they played some part in Saturday's national tragedy remained to be investigated, but rumours about a coup were anything but groundless. There is a real belief among people out there that, after the "failure" of the September 2006 coup, the sus-picious handling of political protests over the past three years, and the fact Saturday's bloodbath had one root cause in anti-coup sentiment, another military intervention can put an end to Thailand's crisis. "

[ExpatJ]

Good question!

The major reason is the common expectation of Baht strength. It could hit 31 by end year. Therefore if you bring in US dollars now with baht at 32.8, an exchange gain of 1.8 would result, 5% gain for "certain" plus the prospect of capital gain of undervalued stocks in Thailand, especially banks and energy.

With the above advantage, the reds did not affect the foreign demand of the Thai stocks at all until the crash with the army two days ago. Good stock investors do not take side. They weigh not one area of risk but an overall risk. Before the confrontation, the foreigners believed that the currency advantage and especially IMF's expected growth rate for Thailand at 6.5% gave them opportunities to make big profits in Thailand while the locals especially the institutions each day kept on saying that it was hot money and could be liquidated any day. So the locals were the only group in the past 30 days the net sellers to the foreigners as net buyers. However, the scene started to change on Thursday and Friday when foreigners were the net sellers. Why? I think the answer is panic selling. The political scene was quite frightening from CNN reports especially this weekend. So, the crunch is today, whether it will go worse with panic selling from foreigners after 30-day accumulation of buyings. The likely scenario is an early drop of 1% to 2% then recover with marginal gain by midday and by afternoon, the trend will depend on foreigners' preference in the morning. Believe me, Thailand stock index has been almost completely dictated by foreign trading and the locals have been dazed with the huge fall in 2008, 46% drop and completely lack of direction.

If foreigners believe that this political havoc is temporary, they will keep on with buying when the political scene has settled down, either dissolution or pm's resignation. The Thailand economic scene has been so unbelievably strong but under-reported by the local press. This should enhance their beliefs that baht should be stronger irrespective of the central bank's intervention.

I think aloud for others to correct my reading and not meant to be a prophecy.

I agree- i think investors foreign and local see Thailand as being a good bet for the medium long term- despite the current political problems there is huge potential here. I was one of the small foreign investors who was putting money in thai stocks even last week (and making a tidy profit). Despite the constant complaining about the terrible state of thailands people/economy/situaton the reality is that compared to many of its neighbours Thailand is still a primo destination for investment and business

[Irene]

I agree- i think investors foreign and local see Thailand as being a good bet for the medium long term- despite the current political problems there is huge potential here. I was one of the small foreign investors who was putting money in thai stocks even last week (and making a tidy profit). Despite the constant complaining about the terrible state of thailands people/economy/situaton the reality is that compared to many of its neighbours Thailand is still a primo destination for investment and business

Well put!

[antony77]

All Thai political parties are ultra capitalist. So business in Thailand will always prosper witch ever side get into power.

[neverdie]

Balance sheet investors. I happen to be one of them but I have not invested in the last 6 months. The balance sheet looks good so piss on the politics.

Lost all your money? Havent got a pot to piss in?

[Irene]

Interesting summary ....

And how do you think the market would react should this happen :-

( in this mornings Nation )

" Anti-democratic elements are lurking. Whether or not they played some part in Saturday's national tragedy remained to be investigated, but rumours about a coup were anything but groundless. There is a real belief among people out there that, after the "failure" of the September 2006 coup, the sus-picious handling of political protests over the past three years, and the fact Saturday's bloodbath had one root cause in anti-coup sentiment, another military intervention can put an end to Thailand's crisis. "

If there is a coup, it may not be that bad. Based on last time, the coup caused a small fall and after shock rose above previous position. If it puts an end to Thailand's crisis, it should be good for investors and businessmen who both dislike any uncertainty. Investors are not supposed to be philosophical about righteousness. But longterm-wise, I would watch my port carefully and decide to divert to overseas or other sources of investment.

By thinking of your question, I somewhat feel that politically there should not be worse than the current situation. The only difficult part is WHEN to buy. One is supposed to go at the lowest point but in practice that is impossible. My technique is to buy with a smallest sum and test one's feeling and judgement. My basis of judgment is to ponder whether this unfavourable factor could become permanently unfavourable. From experience, after any coup, an improvement would arise. The problem is not knowing WHEN? to buy.

My loud thinking is currently it could be an opportunity as well as risk. I tell myself to definitely buy when it is below 700, at 730- a small buy, 750 - small buy, 760 - a very small buy. I try to tell myself - NEVER TO SELL WHEN FEAR - it is not easy principle to adhere to but it is good comfort when you are blurred.

[roamer]

I think its possible to become inured to the almost perpetual crises that affect Thailand because it always recovers. That is of course until it doesn't and then people realise history is exactly that.

[tigerbalm]

Easy to explain, but the capitalists on here don't dare to say it.

The SET is controlled by cliques of the very rich.

It doesn't really matter who wins and who loses in the current political turmoil, because whoever does win will be from the same ilk...money is thicker than politics.

Thaksin and cronies are just another group of rich Chinese/Thais. Anyhow it has nothing to do with ethnicity,all nationalities and races are welcome, having money is the only key.

Foriegn money, Thai money, Asian money, whatever...it's all about money.

The one thing that you can be sure is that those who have money will do all they can to control the SET...and any other financial institutions they can...for their own profit.

But don't worry; as the small investor you can pick up a few of the scraps the big boys happen to overlook....rather like the coackroaches at a picnic...scurrying out from the cracks in the wall to pick up a tasty crumb dropped by the humans eating their sweet cakes.

But watch out for them, because if they do see you, they will squash you like the creeping crawling bug you are.

Agreed.

If you read in to this one might have an alternative reason why the SET and the Baht is so strong .

[jaideeguy]

'The SET is controlled by cliques of the very rich.'

I think, that sums it up......same same with most politics [and finances] in the world.....so my Op question still hasn't been answered directly.......'who were they betting on winning??'

[sokal]

'The SET is controlled by cliques of the very rich.'

I think, that sums it up......same same with most politics [and finances] in the world.....so my Op question still hasn't been answered directly.......'who were they betting on winning??'

The SET is controlled by the market, not by the "very rich".

I thought I answered the question quite clearly. The valuations and the balance sheets of the companies that make up the SET look very good.

[midas]

'The SET is controlled by cliques of the very rich.'

I think, that sums it up......same same with most politics [and finances] in the world.....so my Op question still hasn't been answered directly.......'who were they betting on winning??'

The SET is controlled by the market, not by the "very rich".

I thought I answered the question quite clearly. The valuations and the balance sheets of the companies that make up the SET look very good.

Is " look " the operative word ?

[jaideeguy]

The DJ 'looked' good until the $hit hit the fan there recently!!!.

'they' can make any thing 'look' good on paper and I am just wondering if here in the land of smiles people can be fooled easier?? much less transparency.

all the indicators seem pesimistic to me......

political unrest [constantly]

tourism down,

bad year in agriculture from late rains

etc etc etc....

LOS looks like a bad horse to bet on in my book, but they did bet......why and WHO???.

[wordchild]

I think Sokal is right the reason your question has not been answered is that it cant be! it is impossible to asses the motivation of the millions of indevidual decisions that are behind market moves. From what i see and hear most of the large investors in Thailand are very concerned about "political risk" and have been for some time. Also as ,Sokal and Irene, point out , when investors look at the economic fundamentals of the country and the profitability and balance sheets of indevidual companies there seem still to be attractive investments available. Against this, the market has already doubled over the last year, (even more if you are a dollar investor) and if the unrest continues at this level of intensity the fundamentals of the economy and business will be impacted . I think rather than "betting" on a winner what you see is the interplay of these issues affecting the market on a daily basis. I personally dont see the evidence that the Thai market has been manipulated over anything other than very short time periods eg the daily value of trade on the SET runs to hundreds of millions of dollars it would take a huge amount of money to have any impact on that for any sustained period.

Edited April 13, 2010 by wordchild

[sokal]

The DJ 'looked' good until the $hit hit the fan there recently!!!.

'they' can make any thing 'look' good on paper and I am just wondering if here in the land of smiles people can be fooled easier?? much less transparency.

all the indicators seem pesimistic to me......

political unrest [constantly]

tourism down,

bad year in agriculture from late rains

etc etc etc....

LOS looks like a bad horse to bet on in my book, but they did bet......why and WHO???.

General motors, GE and CITI balance sheets did not look good before the crisis. GE and CITI's still don't look good.

All the indicators you mention have nothing to do with balance sheets.

[ray23]

Never invested before got into Aberdeen last week. Why through it all the Asia Pacific Equity grew slowly but it grew. A heck of a lot more then 1/2% I get at the bank.

I have also set up a stock trade account. That will be a learning process no big bucks involved 15K baht so not exactly going to kill me.

Why Thailand very close to penny stocks so gains will be small as will loses.

The marked dropped 5% at noon on Monday and gained a bit back by the afternoon.

Now remember I'm guessing because I really know nothing yet.

It would appear there will be an election very soon. Until that is announced I would think the market will continue to fall.

When that is announced I think there will be a bounce up. I think we all know who is going to win. That should get PAD active again.

Every ones thoughts please.

Does anyone know of a stock forum for the Thai stocks. I have a lot to learn got to start somewhere.

In the meantime I will sit on the side lands no harm the 15K is still earning the same interest a if it was in the bank

Edited April 14, 2010 by ray23

[Irene]

Never invested before got into Aberdeen last week. Why through it all the Asia Pacific Equity grew slowly but it grew. A heck of a lot more then 1/2% I get at the bank.

I have also set up a stock trade account. That will be a learning process no big bucks involved 15K baht so not exactly going to kill me.

Why Thailand very close to penny stocks so gains will be small as will loses.

The marked dropped 5% at noon on Monday and gained a bit back by the afternoon.

Now remember I'm guessing because I really know nothing yet.

It would appear there will be an election very soon. Until that is announced I would think the market will continue to fall.

When that is announced I think there will be a bounce up. I think we all know who is going to win. That should get PAD active again.

Every ones thoughts please.

Does anyone know of a stock forum for the Thai stocks. I have a lot to learn got to start somewhere.

In the meantime I will sit on the side lands no harm the 15K is still earning the same interest a if it was in the bank

Ray,

You have done the right thing by starting small. Second, try to remember your mistake and recall why did you previously do it. Third, try to locate stocks with franchises like coca cola, johnson or intel and buy when there is a big drop. In Thailand, kbank, scc, ptt fall into this category. Irrespective of ignorance, one takes least risk when one has some stocks in mind to purchase when it has fallen to a ridiculous level. Finally, self-control is the most difficult art for any investors i.e. to buy when others fear and sell when others are elated. It boils down to one word - "timing".

[ray23]

Thanks Irene

[tigerbalm]

'The SET is controlled by cliques of the very rich.'

I think, that sums it up......same same with most politics [and finances] in the world.....so my Op question still hasn't been answered directly.......'who were they betting on winning??'

That is a trcky one

It just is a little bit bewildering that in the west, if two parties fight it out over an election then they produce a manifesto outlining what they intend to for the country, cut business tax, invest in public health, the infrastructure etc etc.

I have not heard of either of the parties come out with anything to let the people know what they intend to do for the greater good of the country. (May be i am not reading the proper outlets for this sort of thing).

Im a little bewildered to who is the finance minister for the reds? or who would they put in charge, is their any one capable of this post amongst them come to that.

Most if not all the bickering is like a feudal fight between those who have and those who had. lost it and want it back hardly a spring board of stability for any one who would like or want to invest at this present time in Thai.set.co.th.

So in answer to your question i would have to say in my opinion it would have to be the present lot in power at the moment, better the devil you know than the other Devil you tyou know.

To Ray23 who is looking to invest in the SET have a look at I think it is Siam Cement, have a look at who owns most of that, or CP foods one or the the Present PM closest relatives i believe is on the Board of directors and they are investing heavily in China, much to the disgust i would imagine to the Dalai Lamas sister who recently refused entry in to the kingdom (Rightly or wrongly) .

Or if you think Mr Taxin will come back now is a good time to get a few shares in any of the companies he still owns.

[ray23]

This one looks interesting but I can't find it on the set wonder if they mean Bangkok Solar Company?

"Special Report: Alternative Energy initiatives of the Provincial Electricity Authority

Mindless consumption and human negligence has led to a realization that what was once taken for granted, such as energy, might no longer be available or sufficient for society in the future.

Discovered alternative energy sources have come to the rescue of heightened carbon emissions that contribute to the effects of global warming.

Natural resources were adapted to generate energy, including wind, solar, water and wastes. These were deemed beneficial to the airline and electricity industries in creating a stable and solid foundation for society as well as creating a healthy image for the country to attract visitors and investors.

Meanwhile, Thailand’s Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA) is prepared to collaborate with the private sector in creating electricity by using alternative energy.

According to deputy governor of PEA, Passorn Wiengket, the PEA will make investments to generate electricity from solar energy with Solar Power Company. The plan includes building 34 solar farms, which will generate 200 megawatts of electricity using an investment capital of 800 million to one billion THB. The project will become the largest commercial investment made among ASEAN countries, said Mr Passorn. Currently feasibility studies are being conducted in Nakhon Ratchasima, where the investments will take place.

Another project is generating electricity from wind turbines in the Koh Tao island in Surat Thani province. The project is expected to generate up to 250 kilowatts of electricity or 10% of electricity production on the island. In order to reduce diesel consumption, future investments include a submarine cable wiring from the shore of Koh Tao, to generate electricity for the islands. This is also currently under a feasibility study.

Realizing the importance of lessening the harmful impacts on the environment, PEA has consistently promoted the use of alternative energy. Newer sources for alternative energy were discovered as they bring in a variation of eco-friendly electricity generation. This includes using biogas from palm extract in Krabi province by buying wastes from palm oil. The process only uses two megawatts of energy, however the process can generate up to 10 million units of electricity, saving up to 30 million THB per year in purchasing electricity.

With investment plans and projects underway, Thailand is following a great start for a developing country aiming for future sustainability. With cooperation from the private and public enterprises for energy investments, these efforts will contribute to energy sufficiency for generations in the future."

News ID: 255304120001

[sokal]

Never invested before got into Aberdeen last week. Why through it all the Asia Pacific Equity grew slowly but it grew. A heck of a lot more then 1/2% I get at the bank.

I have also set up a stock trade account. That will be a learning process no big bucks involved 15K baht so not exactly going to kill me.

Why Thailand very close to penny stocks so gains will be small as will loses.

The marked dropped 5% at noon on Monday and gained a bit back by the afternoon.

Now remember I'm guessing because I really know nothing yet.

It would appear there will be an election very soon. Until that is announced I would think the market will continue to fall.

When that is announced I think there will be a bounce up. I think we all know who is going to win. That should get PAD active again.

Every ones thoughts please.

Does anyone know of a stock forum for the Thai stocks. I have a lot to learn got to start somewhere.

In the meantime I will sit on the side lands no harm the 15K is still earning the same interest a if it was in the bank

Ray,

You have done the right thing by starting small. Second, try to remember your mistake and recall why did you previously do it. Third, try to locate stocks with franchises like coca cola, johnson or intel and buy when there is a big drop. In Thailand, kbank, scc, ptt fall into this category. Irrespective of ignorance, one takes least risk when one has some stocks in mind to purchase when it has fallen to a ridiculous level. Finally, self-control is the most difficult art for any investors i.e. to buy when others fear and sell when others are elated. It boils down to one word - "timing".

I agree, blue chip SE Asian dividend paying stocks are good. Listen to what Austrian economists like Peter Schiff, Marc Faber and Jim Rogers say (2 of them live in Asia)They have the best record.