Thai Baht Weakens On Concerns Over Renewed Violence: BoT

[steve187]

My opinion is, that has nothing to do with the Thai baht, but piss poor money management throughout their lives. Really, if people can't afford to survive in Thailand because the baht went up a couple points, how do they ever expect to survive in England?

I don't mind if the baht goes up a bit here and there, because regardless, living in Khon Kaen is a WHOLE lot cheaper than living in downtown Vancouver. Although I will admit, Thailand isn't some cheap paradise to live in, like many people seem to think. It still costs a decent penny to live a good standard of living.

easy to live in the Uk on a lesser amount because, 1, the pension would not be frozen (that could be a large increase for a long term retiree)

2, pension credits would boast pension

3, help would be on hand with council tax etc.

4, free medicine

Also some people have lost there lively hoods in this crash, so nothing to do with piss poor money management. in 2005 it was about 70baht/1 gbp with petrol at 18baht a litre, making a litre 25pence. now its 47baht/1 gbp with petrol at 36baht litre making the same litre about 75pence. I wouldn't call that the baht going up a few points. i would call that going up a lot (200%). So before you make a wide reaching comment of piss poor money management think!!!

[Gambles]

That was nearly 20 years ago, so many people have retired to Thailand more recently, when the GBP was 70's and USD was mid 40's and based their income on those rates and are now struggling, it's a hard pill to swallow, but some will not have the amount of pension required to remain in Thailand on a retirement visa, if they rely on Pension alone.

My opinion is, that has nothing to do with the Thai baht, but piss poor money management throughout their lives. Really, if people can't afford to survive in Thailand because the baht went up a couple points, how do they ever expect to survive in England?

I don't mind if the baht goes up a bit here and there, because regardless, living in Khon Kaen is a WHOLE lot cheaper than living in downtown Vancouver. Although I will admit, Thailand isn't some cheap paradise to live in, like many people seem to think. It still costs a decent penny to live a good standard of living.

75 down to 46 against £ is almost a 40% drop, add that to all time low interest rates and it isnt 'piss poor money management' as you so elequently put it.

Example 2006

£200,000 at a rate 5.3% after 20% tax deducted = £10,600

10,600 x 75 = 795.000/12 = 66,250 baht a month

2010

£200,000 at a rate of 2.3% after tax deducted = £4,600

4,600 x 46 = 211,600/12 = 17,633 baht a month.

Hardly a couple of points but this is the reality many English are facing.

2006 you had to pay tax on UK pensions; in 2010 you don't (State pensions excepted) and you can hedge into Baht and you can invest into better yields

You should be doing at least as well as in 2006 if you've taken the right advice and done the right things

[japatee]

Haven't seen the baht falling at all.. now 47 to 1 GBP, 31 to 1 USD

rubbish!

[bermuda]

"On a comment by a top economist that the baht was very likely to touch 31.5 to the dollar at year-end, Mrs. Suchada said the currency had both strengthened and weakened."

Nothing like an official who will firmly commit herself.

In Thailand There are three kinds of economists, those who can count and those who can't.

I am sure you can't count. You mentioned only two whilst you said there are three kinds.

[tomyummer]

thank goodness....i long for the days of 42 to the dollar

Man I was wondering what the he_l was holding it up.. come on 42.

Oh what the heck, let's go for broke at 50 like back in '97!

[tomyummer]

"On a comment by a top economist that the baht was very likely to touch 31.5 to the dollar at year-end, Mrs. Suchada said the currency had both strengthened and weakened."

Nothing like an official who will firmly commit herself.

In Thailand There are three kinds of economists, those who can count and those who can't.

I am sure you can't count. You mentioned only two whilst you said there are three kinds.

Uhh....I think that was the joke?

[tropo]

Haven't seen the baht falling at all.. now 47 to 1 GBP, 31 to 1 USD

rubbish!

I agree, it's total nonsense. I see no upward movement against the USD and the Aussie dollar has consistently weakend over the last month and it's still going down against the baht.

Edited May 15, 2010 by tropo

[JohnLeech]

2006 you had to pay tax on UK pensions; in 2010 you don't (State pensions excepted)

That's totally misleading (OK, totally wrong). Private pensions are still taxed, by PAYE (at source), while state pensions are not; its the pension funds that are not taxed. Very different.

[eggomaniac]

When I read the headline I was curious if there would be be 1 or 2 Replies from the purely self interested point of view; instead it was 1 or 2 pages!

Yes, counting pennies and rbbing nickels is important for all of us, but people are dying folks!

Don't be SO fricken happy it has fattened your wallet a tick or a tock.

[el jefe]

My opinion is, that has nothing to do with the Thai baht, but piss poor money management throughout their lives. Really, if people can't afford to survive in Thailand because the baht went up a couple points, how do they ever expect to survive in England?

I don't mind if the baht goes up a bit here and there, because regardless, living in Khon Kaen is a WHOLE lot cheaper than living in downtown Vancouver. Although I will admit, Thailand isn't some cheap paradise to live in, like many people seem to think. It still costs a decent penny to live a good standard of living.

easy to live in the Uk on a lesser amount because, 1, the pension would not be frozen (that could be a large increase for a long term retiree)

2, pension credits would boast pension

3, help would be on hand with council tax etc.

4, free medicine

Also some people have lost there lively hoods in this crash, so nothing to do with piss poor money management. in 2005 it was about 70baht/1 gbp with petrol at 18baht a litre, making a litre 25pence. now its 47baht/1 gbp with petrol at 36baht litre making the same litre about 75pence. I wouldn't call that the baht going up a few points. i would call that going up a lot (200%). So before you make a wide reaching comment of piss poor money management think!!!

I gotta agree with Matt's first paragraph. Money management includes saving money in case you lose your job.

As for his second paragraph, every time this comes up I say the same thing -- it's a whole lot cheaper living here than in the west.

Where I disagree with Matt is that he says "It still costs a decent penny to live a good standard of living." However you define "good standard of living" there aren't too many places where you'll live that same lifestyle for less money. In fact, I can't think of any, or I'd be there. But then again, I live in Chiang Mai, not bangkok or phuket.

But I find it incredible every time someone says they can live better in the west on the same money, without relying on handouts from friends and relatives.

And did Steve187 really try to use the cost of petrol as an example of how much the baht has increased?? Since petrol is priced in dollars, your costs in pounds are based on the USD/GBP exchange rate and has nothing to do with the baht.

[evanson]

The baht is strengthening and EVERYTHING is getting more expensive. Much more expensive.

The agument that it's merely stayed the same against Western currencis doesn't hold water when you consider that countries such as Australia escaped the economic decline. And you get far less baht for the Oz dollar now.

Edited May 16, 2010 by evanson

[goatfarmer]

The Baht is not weakening. It has been in a short term range since March and a very strong rising trend since May last year. Only a fall below 32.6 (or thereabouts) would break the strong uptrend.

[gregb]

"On a comment by a top economist that the baht was very likely to touch 31.5 to the dollar at year-end, Mrs. Suchada said the currency had both strengthened and weakened."

Nothing like an official who will firmly commit herself.

In Thailand There are three kinds of economists, those who can count and those who can't.

I am sure you can't count. You mentioned only two whilst you said there are three kinds.

Uhh....I think that was the joke?

What is funnier than the joke is the fact bermuda didn't get it. Congratulations bermuda. You've proven your ability to count to 3. You are clearly on your way to being a senior Thai economist.

[Gambles]

2006 you had to pay tax on UK pensions; in 2010 you don't (State pensions excepted)

That's totally misleading (OK, totally wrong). Private pensions are still taxed, by PAYE (at source), while state pensions are not; its the pension funds that are not taxed. Very different.

No, John.

Since A-day 2006 you can transfer your UK pension offshore and if you live in Thailand can arrange to receive without any deduction of tax.

This applies to almost every form of private pension. Anyone paying PAYE at source is voluntarily paying unneccessary tax - PM me if you want the details but it's part of UK obligations under the freedom of movement of Capital that was signed up for at Maastricht. In every instance that I've seen, any UK pensioner not receiving more Baht than in 06 has been and is continuing to make a serious financial mistake.

[Gambles]

My opinion is, that has nothing to do with the Thai baht, but piss poor money management throughout their lives. Really, if people can't afford to survive in Thailand because the baht went up a couple points, how do they ever expect to survive in England?

I don't mind if the baht goes up a bit here and there, because regardless, living in Khon Kaen is a WHOLE lot cheaper than living in downtown Vancouver. Although I will admit, Thailand isn't some cheap paradise to live in, like many people seem to think. It still costs a decent penny to live a good standard of living.

easy to live in the Uk on a lesser amount because, 1, the pension would not be frozen (that could be a large increase for a long term retiree)

2, pension credits would boast pension

3, help would be on hand with council tax etc.

4, free medicine

Also some people have lost there lively hoods in this crash, so nothing to do with piss poor money management. in 2005 it was about 70baht/1 gbp with petrol at 18baht a litre, making a litre 25pence. now its 47baht/1 gbp with petrol at 36baht litre making the same litre about 75pence. I wouldn't call that the baht going up a few points. i would call that going up a lot (200%). So before you make a wide reaching comment of piss poor money management think!!!

I gotta agree with Matt's first paragraph. Money management includes saving money in case you lose your job.

As for his second paragraph, every time this comes up I say the same thing -- it's a whole lot cheaper living here than in the west.

Where I disagree with Matt is that he says "It still costs a decent penny to live a good standard of living." However you define "good standard of living" there aren't too many places where you'll live that same lifestyle for less money. In fact, I can't think of any, or I'd be there. But then again, I live in Chiang Mai, not bangkok or phuket.

But I find it incredible every time someone says they can live better in the west on the same money, without relying on handouts from friends and relatives.

And did Steve187 really try to use the cost of petrol as an example of how much the baht has increased?? Since petrol is priced in dollars, your costs in pounds are based on the USD/GBP exchange rate and has nothing to do with the baht.

Commodity pricing is a whole different ball game - look at the price of petrol in Sterling over the last few years -

Either way a stronger baht is a more immediate concern than a weaker one: John Sheehan of GMA (quoted below in a different context) believes that Baht should now be pegged to RMB/USD/commodity (especially petrol prices) to stop it strengthening too much going forwards. Whilst I don't fully agree that's only because I think that while the objectives are right I'd hope that they can be more effectively achieved through a more 'Thai' solution; Thailand has a very good record of financial managemnt in many respects for well over a hundred years

Political risk curbs country's potential

Pornnalat Prachayakorn

Published: 30/04/2010 at 12:00 AM tweetmeme_url = window.location; tweetmeme_service = 'digg.com'; tweetmeme_source = "BPbusiness";

Political risk curbing country's potential

Thailand might fail to capitalise on its strengths to become one of the best investment markets in Asia if political risk continues to affect the country's economy, according to Scott Campbell, an S&P award-winning fund manager.

Foreign investors remain bullish on the growth of emerging markets including Asia, Mr. Campbell said at a briefing in Bangkok this week.

''Asia along with other emerging markets will continue to be the best place for investment for the next 30 to 40 years,'' said Mr. Campbell, director of the international fund manager Miton Optimal.

''Over the past 10 years, the stock market in the west has done nothing while Asian stock markets have grown three- to fourfold.''

Although Thailand's economic fundamentals are attractive, political risk is seen as the major obstacle on the path to a better economic position.

Mr. Campbell said that since April last year, there has been a significant rebound in Asian currencies.

''Currency is a barometer of political risk and the Thai baht has been pretty much flat since last year,'' he said. ''If the political risk gets sorted out, then you'll see the Thai baht appreciate just to catch up with what everything else has done.''

The fundamentals for the whole Asian region are still very positive but Thailand could lag because of political instability, he added.

Paul Gambles, managing director of the consultancy MBMG International Co, said Thailand started to underperform the rest of the region in 2004, when political tensions first began to affect the economy.

''Thailand's economy has significantly underperformed over the last few years. This can be best be seen by comparing Thailand's economic growth, foreign-exchange rates and stock market valuations with those of comparable economies in Southeast Asia,'' he said.

Mr. Gambles quoted John Sheehan of the consultancy Global Market Asia, who observed that growth rates in a number of Asean neighbours had not only caught up, but had overtaken that of Thailand.

''If you take the superior GDP growth rate of a jurisdiction like the Philippines and apply this higher rate to Thailand's growth from 2005, it can be seen that by the end of 2008 Thailand's GDP would be somewhere between US$30 billion and $40 billion higher,'' Mr. Gambles said.

[Gambles]

The Baht is not weakening. It has been in a short term range since March and a very strong rising trend since May last year. Only a fall below 32.6 (or thereabouts) would break the strong uptrend.

actually Baht isn't strengthening - Dollar, Euro and Sterling are weakening

[christensen]

I did not know they traded currencies at the weekend

Same here banks are closed. How can they sell bath anyway if nobody goes on holidays.

[cougar52]

Even with the news, the fighting, the people buying back US Dollars--the Baht is still sitting at 31.97 to the Dollar just as it has been for a week??????????????????????????????

[christensen]

I did not know they traded currencies at the weekend

Same here banks are closed. How can they sell bath anyway if nobody goes on holidays.

The Euro is falling like a stone against the bath on yahoo finance at the moment, is in contrast to this article.

[somtampet]

That was nearly 20 years ago, so many people have retired to Thailand more recently, when the GBP was 70's and USD was mid 40's and based their income on those rates and are now struggling, it's a hard pill to swallow, but some will not have the amount of pension required to remain in Thailand on a retirement visa, if they rely on Pension alone.

My opinion is, that has nothing to do with the Thai baht, but piss poor money management throughout their lives. Really, if people can't afford to survive in Thailand because the baht went up a couple points, how do they ever expect to survive in England?

I don't mind if the baht goes up a bit here and there, because regardless, living in Khon Kaen is a WHOLE lot cheaper than living in downtown Vancouver. Although I will admit, Thailand isn't some cheap paradise to live in, like many people seem to think. It still costs a decent penny to live a good standard of living.

75 down to 46 against £ is almost a 40% drop, add that to all time low interest rates and it isnt 'piss poor money management' as you so elequently put it.

Example 2006

£200,000 at a rate 5.3% after 20% tax deducted = £10,600

10,600 x 75 = 795.000/12 = 66,250 baht a month

2010

£200,000 at a rate of 2.3% after tax deducted = £4,600

4,600 x 46 = 211,600/12 = 17,633 baht a month.

Hardly a couple of points but this is the reality many English are facing.

Obvious the guy was trying to show off,and you have shown him up big style for posting silly comments.Hard times ahead for many of us,but most of us will manage

[JohnLeech]

..... In every instance that I've seen, any UK pensioner not receiving more Baht than in 06 has been and is continuing to make a serious financial mistake.

As a relative newcomer here I had not realised that you were MBMG and that I could safely ignore anything you said.

As cdnmatt, who is at least capable of basic mathematics which you evidently are not, rightly said:

Example 2006

£200,000 at a rate 5.3% after 20% tax deducted = £10,600

10,600 x 75 = 795.000/12 = 66,250 baht a month

2010

£200,000 at a rate of 2.3% after tax deducted = £4,600

4,600 x 46 = 211,600/12 = 17,633 baht a month.

However you play with the figures or try to baffle with bullshit, UK pensioners in Thailand who are reliant on their pension and capital interest are almost without exception worse off now in baht terms than they were four years ago. If you haven't seen "any UK pensioner not receiving more Baht than in 06" the only conclusion it is possible to make is that you haven't seen any at all and that your client list is blank.

[cheshiremusicman]

"On a comment by a top economist that the baht was very likely to touch 31.5 to the dollar at year-end, Mrs. Suchada said the currency had both strengthened and weakened."

Nothing like an official who will firmly commit herself.

In Thailand There are three kinds of economists, those who can count and those who can't.

I am sure you can't count. You mentioned only two whilst you said there are three kinds.

'And I am sure' that you didn't see the 'Irony of the statement' !!

[timekeeper]

at Heathrow yesterday afternoon, Thomas Cook were offering 40.30 baht =£1

[Forkinhades]

at Heathrow yesterday afternoon, Thomas Cook were offering 40.30 baht =£1

Thomas Cook always offer 10-15% less. If you have ever changed money up in the UK once before, you should have learned your lesson, and not do again

[RKASA]

"On a comment by a top economist that the baht was very likely to touch 31.5 to the dollar at year-end, Mrs. Suchada said the currency had both strengthened and weakened."

Nothing like an official who will firmly commit herself.

In Thailand There are three kinds of economists, those who can count and those who can't.

I am sure you can't count. You mentioned only two whilst you said there are three kinds.

I think that was the point. vary cute.

[roamer]

So what happens when there is an increased demand for baht later this week ? Increased demand as in people pulling their money out of the banks because they see the flames, the barricades, the bullets and figure civil war is looming.

[thaibeachlovers]

at Heathrow yesterday afternoon, Thomas Cook were offering 40.30 baht =£1

Thomas Cook always offer 10-15% less. If you have ever changed money up in the UK once before, you should have learned your lesson, and not do again

Absolutely correct.

[thaibeachlovers]

Rubbish. The baht is still 46.6 for Sterling travel cheques today, which is lower than a few days ago ( 46.7 ).

Edited May 16, 2010 by thaibeachlovers

[Gambles]

..... In every instance that I've seen, any UK pensioner not receiving more Baht than in 06 has been and is continuing to make a serious financial mistake.

As a relative newcomer here I had not realised that you were MBMG and that I could safely ignore anything you said.

As cdnmatt, who is at least capable of basic mathematics which you evidently are not, rightly said:

Example 2006

£200,000 at a rate 5.3% after 20% tax deducted = £10,600

10,600 x 75 = 795.000/12 = 66,250 baht a month

2010

£200,000 at a rate of 2.3% after tax deducted = £4,600

4,600 x 46 = 211,600/12 = 17,633 baht a month.

However you play with the figures or try to baffle with bullshit, UK pensioners in Thailand who are reliant on their pension and capital interest are almost without exception worse off now in baht terms than they were four years ago. If you haven't seen "any UK pensioner not receiving more Baht than in 06" the only conclusion it is possible to make is that you haven't seen any at all and that your client list is blank.

Very droll, John, thanks.

In fact Billy Popham alone, the main UK pension transfer specialist at MBMG has been responsible for over 1% of the value of the entire global UK pension transfers offshore volume. He has personally handled some 50 cases already and of these 50, the tax saving, investment gain and currency hedge has ensured that their financial position is protected/enhanced compared to '06. That opportunity is of course available to every UK pension holder and every UK pension holder is neglecting their personal finances if they don't explore this opportunity. PM me if you want Billy Popham's details and there are perhaps half a dozen other companies around the world who also specialise in producing professional, personalised critical yield comparisons and implementation advice so that UK pensioners can compare the relative merits of staying within UK schemes and choosing to pay UK tax versus not doing so. It's vital that this is done because each case is very different and highly individual and has to be set up right.

But do please feel free to ignore -

Thanks,

Paul

Edited May 17, 2010 by Gambles

[Gambles]

So what happens when there is an increased demand for baht later this week ? Increased demand as in people pulling their money out of the banks because they see the flames, the barricades, the bullets and figure civil war is looming.

Good question - money in circulation would only affect FX rates if it causes a major change to the monetary base - i.e. there's such a shortage of money that more has to be printed which in the long term devalues the currency to an extent.

Whether money is held in banks, under mattresses etc doesn't make much difference to Fx rates as it's the demand for baht relative to other currencies - i.e. swapping Dollars for Baht or vice versa that causes swings in Fx rates - but it does make a difference to the economy, GDP, inflation; excessive money hoarding is very negative for economic growth.

Massive simultaneous withdrawals can also create bank runs and lead to bank failures.

Edited May 17, 2010 by Gambles