Thousands Of Thai Protesters Defy Deadline To Leave

[SPQR]

All very sad, this final action to end the rally. Few peaceful members remain in the main encampment, but some still do, wanting to support the cause with their trusted leadership. They are at great risk, as it seems from some in the observation posts looking in from the perimeter. The UDD leaders are not guiding them to ensure their safety. There is just fight-to-the-last talk from the stage, and off-stage some heated arguments about who is getting what from the food and water cached there, and what assistance is coming in. No real coaching to the 'civilian' lot on how this scene will fold up, and how to conduct themselves out safely.

Amnesty is already an accomplished fact for those who left, and are not photo-tagged to patrols to be detained for probable cause in the many individual acts of violence and assualt already catalogued on camera.

This forum has been a 'tough room' to read from, but some useful pieces have dropped into place from various sources, and I appreciate the thinking from all sides, as it helps me to also see the whole thing as others see it.

Some posts are very harsh and judgemental, indeed. For the Reds, I must say they want something good - more balanced representation, and a reconciliation of the past few times the government has changed hands - and they pursued getting it in a bad way that has failed, and has spilled Thai blood. Their cause is still valid. They still have some good leadership, who keep the ultimate goals quite clear and un-changing in their statements.

Refusal to deal, to accept a compromise, looks good indeed. Uncompromising leaders are much admired. It functions very poorly though, in building coalition support. And coalition support will be required to get meaningful changes into the charter and constitution for a 'next' government.

For the Yellow aristocracy, there were serious offers to get binding alliances with UDD and former TRT membership - offers passed up as too costly. That math was and still is flawed. The Red base is aligned with a cabal of rural land-owners and agri-biz tycoons. The power from the north in the vote is badly out of step with the financial interests. The opportunity is there to take up common cause with the voting millions in Land Reform action. Thaksin had this chance with his TRT constituency and blew it - it was too expensive for him also (politically that is).

For Thaksin, before he blundered in economic political moves, he swung for the fences to get the rural folks hearts, and had them expecting something real. 30-B healthcare was weak, but sounded right. The micro-credit financial initiative was and still is the one truly enabling thing he got for the working poor. Then I guess he tweaked his personal stake, and opened the fatal split with the Yellow aristocracy. Which just reads like falling down a flight of stairs in slow-motion until his ouster.

Nothing has been right since. It feels like the UDD got a bite on people's raised expectations after TRT opened the door to entitlements. I dread to notion that Thailand will slide steadily toward a welfare-state, offering more and more to an insatiable poor from governemt tills. The conservative business community knows this hellish possibilty well. They are determined to prevent its onset ever happening. But they have over-corrected. Abhisit made good on most of the work TRT gets recognized for starting, albeit as formerly weak programs with poor financial controls. Small but important improvements, some already in the works under Somchai, have been emplaced, lacking only a budget.

The world outside Thailand has not over-reacted too badly, considering how un-well things look.

The army has kept it a defensive action, containing by stopping support from without getting to the encampments.

The PM and Deputy PM are holding private talks with leaders from all party factions, including Reds, and former reds.

There is a hold while the red's guns-are-the-answer crowd has it out with well-prepared troops. The red 'roid ragers surely know they are going to lose, but they began this thing utterly convinced they would win a moral victory, and a kind of martyrdom. It was to propel the Reds to the moral higher ground ahead of new elections, and to prevent an army coup. Now they are finding that result hard to come by. They haven't the means to control the flow of battle. They are just going to die now, for not much. Hope a few of the Bangkok mafia goons (me scuze, Oceano - Thai indigenous organized crime members bearing no trace of roman blood, who model their entire organization after the Triads, La Cosa Nostra, and Shoi-Yakuza) get taken out along with the Soldiers of Destiny.

The Way Out of this now, is to show the masses the UDD has survived as a party, with SOME leadership intact. Letting that fre group talk again sounds wrong, but is the thing drawing red attention away from the baddies in the kill-box. Jail the leaders you can prove broke the law, jail everyone you can prove broke the law, and pardon some who demonstrate the right character of reaching out to the party membership and to the opposition membership alike. Amnesty for all who walked away before May 14.

Can the public debate come back to positive stuff? Will this be only a bitter debate over who-killed-who for the rest of the year?

That proposal of a way forward is still open. No real amendment is possible without getting the debate public and acheiving intimacy with television audiences and public gatherings. This is the most important political action awaiting them.

I hope Abhisit and Suthep can keep their heads AFTER this shootout ends. MP's will be in a frenzy to call all sorts of people to account for what has happened. This is only the second most important political action awaiting them.

SPQR. Society and People of Rome. THE patriarchal civilization which all of western Europe and the United States, Canada, even OZ carry on in the legacy of even to this day. The Republic, not the Empire.

SPQR Ver. 2011 is already in stores!!!!

[earthpig]

No matter how many times you post it, no amnesty.

There may be no other choice that doesn't involve killing people.

clockworkorange,

oh several of these posters fully understand what you say full well.

some are simply ignorant, but others know well enough that innocence is dying daily here. and they know that their declared policies are formulae for death, pain, grief and destruction.

not only of committed reds, but of children.

thai blood is precisely what they want.

[earthpig]

There may be no other choice that doesn't involve killing people.

clockworkorange,

oh several of these posters fully understand what you say full well.

some are simply ignorant, but others know well enough that innocence is dying daily here. and they know that their declared policies are formulae for death, pain, grief and destruction.

not only of committed reds, but of children.

thai blood is precisely what they want.

[clockworkorange]

No matter how many times you post it, no amnesty.

There may be no other choice that doesn't involve killing people.

sadly so. worst case scenario the UN DID come in, that would be a bloodbath.

A report on channel 3 and channel 11 (Thai) says the army estimates the guns and wepaons belonging to the reds have been moved to the edges of the red zone, they're not inside so that the leaders can't be caught with them "red handed" and obviously the women and children can't/or won't shoot. they say there are too many "unknown" snipers in the distance between the soldiers and the red shirts. The report on free TV (channel 11) said it'll be deadly for troops to move in closer, as seen on video, thats where the reds with the guns are. Thats just their assessment, obviously no promises on what they'll do. (the report last night said the snipers near the "frontline" are not identified yet as whether belonging to yellow or some other faction, as they aim at both red shirts and soldiers) what do you make of that?

precarious situation with no easy way out!

Ultimately the soldiers'll have to buckle down, get their own snipers in position, and take the red zone, otherwise eventually there'll be intervention!

The report may be true, although we should perhaps be a little sceptical of what Thai television tells us - it is controlled by the Thai government which may put a spin on it.

An assault on Rajaprasong by the Thai army would of course succeed in theory, if sufficient force were to be used, and if the army were to obey such an order to the letter. The problem is that these are big ifs, in the light the performance of the army so far, with all its disarray and divided loyalty.

And what next? If the protest at Rajaprasong were to be crushed with brute force, the red protest would then pop up elsewhere, uncontained and much more unpredictable.

It's wishful thinking to hope that the problem will go away unless the two sides sit down and come to an agreement.

[Herm]

There may be no other choice that doesn't involve killing people.

clockworkorange,

oh several of these posters fully understand what you say full well.

some are simply ignorant, but others know well enough that innocence is dying daily here. and they know that their declared policies are formulae for death, pain, grief and destruction.

not only of committed reds, but of children.

thai blood is precisely what they want.

Weng, please post your drivel only once, we know you want to keep your ass out of jail, hope it ain't going to happen but there is no one here who can help you

[earthpig]

the good news is earthpig is full of it, and the other good thing is its not up to him.

ahhh, its up to you is it?

why do the keyboard warriors require reality checks?

[Herm]

No matter how many times you post it, no amnesty.

There may be no other choice that doesn't involve killing people.

sadly so. worst case scenario the UN DID come in, that would be a bloodbath.

A report on channel 3 and channel 11 (Thai) says the army estimates the guns and wepaons belonging to the reds have been moved to the edges of the red zone, they're not inside so that the leaders can't be caught with them "red handed" and obviously the women and children can't/or won't shoot. they say there are too many "unknown" snipers in the distance between the soldiers and the red shirts. The report on free TV (channel 11) said it'll be deadly for troops to move in closer, as seen on video, thats where the reds with the guns are. Thats just their assessment, obviously no promises on what they'll do. (the report last night said the snipers near the "frontline" are not identified yet as whether belonging to yellow or some other faction, as they aim at both red shirts and soldiers) what do you make of that?

precarious situation with no easy way out!

Ultimately the soldiers'll have to buckle down, get their own snipers in position, and take the red zone, otherwise eventually there'll be intervention!

The report may be true, although we should perhaps be a little sceptical of what Thai television tells us - it is controlled by the Thai government which may put a spin on it.

An assault on Rajaprasong by the Thai army would of course succeed in theory, if sufficient force were to be used, and if the army were to obey such an order to the letter. The problem is that these are big ifs, in the light the performance of the army so far, with all its disarray and divided loyalty.

And what next? If the protest at Rajaprasong were to be crushed with brute force, the red protest would then pop up elsewhere, uncontained and much more unpredictable.

It's wishful thinking to hope that the problem will go away unless the two sides sit down and come to an agreement.

Once the local leadership is crushed, all you will get is some rural groups of criminals acting up pretending to be red. Nothing new and easily handled. You still don't get it, the Thai population is fat up with this BS. Holding up children makes a hel_l of a lot of Thai's wanting to distance themselves from these Buffs who apparently have no problem endangering their small children's life. Was a very bad move that backfired.

If there was any real rural support, there would be no tuk tuks driving around CM flying the Kings colors today risking retaliation from any red shirt stronghold.

Time for talking is over - they can still pack up their stuff and leave but the leaders and those using guns and or other weapons will have to be jailed for a very long time to set an example.This by the way will include all the supporters like the money launderers as well who now surely need clean underpants having been called before the DSI - and if one should get hold of Thaksin, well Thailand has the death sentence

[clockworkorange]

There may be no other choice that doesn't involve killing people.

clockworkorange,

oh several of these posters fully understand what you say full well.

some are simply ignorant, but others know well enough that innocence is dying daily here. and they know that their declared policies are formulae for death, pain, grief and destruction.

not only of committed reds, but of children.

thai blood is precisely what they want.

Weng, please post your drivel only once, we know you want to keep your ass out of jail, hope it ain't going to happen but there is no one here who can help you

I'll bet you that an amnesty does happen, whether you like it or not.

And it won't be the first time. Were you around during the riots in 1992? Suchinda still plays golf, sits on company boards of directors and enjoys unfettered freedom, despite all the calls for his scalp while people were dying on the streets.

Edited May 18, 2010 by clockworkorange

[Herm]

There may be no other choice that doesn't involve killing people.

clockworkorange,

oh several of these posters fully understand what you say full well.

some are simply ignorant, but others know well enough that innocence is dying daily here. and they know that their declared policies are formulae for death, pain, grief and destruction.

not only of committed reds, but of children.

thai blood is precisely what they want.

Weng, please post your drivel only once, we know you want to keep your ass out of jail, hope it ain't going to happen but there is no one here who can help you

I'll bet you that an amnesty does happen, whether you like it or not.

And it won't be the first time. Were you around during the riots in 1992? Suchinda still plays golf, sits on company boards of directors and enjoys unfettered freedom, despite all the calls for his scalp while people were dying on the streets.

Yep I was, but that was a different government and a lot of money changed hands under the table than - Abhisit is a different caliber politician

[KMUTT]

Children, elderly, women remain with anti-government protestors: Thai minister

Children, the elderly, and women have remained with the anti-government protesters at the rally site in central Bangkok, Social Development and Human Security Minister Isara Somchai said Tuesday morning.

"By now, none of the children, elderly, and women have been separated from the protesters," the National News Bureau of Thailand quoted Isara as saying.

Also, they have not yet contacted with concerned agencies for help, Isara added.

The ministry has prepared measures and officials to advise for these people whenever they need help, the minister said.

Facilities, including shelters and foods have been prepared, while transportation is also available for those who want to return home, said Isara.

The Interior and Transportation Ministry and Thailand's national police are also ready to help facilitate the protesters, the minister said.

The intense political situation in capital Bangkok has continued as troops' operations have continued to besiege the main rally site Rajprasong area, aiming to pressure the anti-government protesters to end their over-two-month long rally.

Source: Xinhua 31 minutes ago

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90777/90851/6989135.html

[earthpig]

And what next? If the protest at Rajaprasong were to be crushed with brute force, the red protest would then pop up elsewhere, uncontained and much more unpredictable.

It's wishful thinking to hope that the problem will go away unless the two sides sit down and come to an agreement.

clockwork,

in anticipation of an assault, thaksin has already done what you say. the uprisings in ine Inner Outer areas such as the pivotal Bon Kai has been going on for days.

and as we can see from news reports this morning, the reds are now trying to position themselves in the Outer Outer areas of Bkk, in this case Ramkhamhaeng.

thaksin understands full well that an insurgency must never stop pressing the government. everyday it forces the army to shoot and terrorize inhabitants it is a victory for the insurgency.

and he understands that in an inurgency against a superior force there is no such thing as a fixed position forever. RatchaP remains Red as long it can be held at acceptable cost, then the Reds melt to any one of several alternatives, perhaps Klong Toei. and so on.

you are correct that agreement is the only way to stop the killing and save thailand. and given how thaskin is outfoxing the government and has the initiative, only an amnesty will work.

[Herm]

And what next? If the protest at Rajaprasong were to be crushed with brute force, the red protest would then pop up elsewhere, uncontained and much more unpredictable.

It's wishful thinking to hope that the problem will go away unless the two sides sit down and come to an agreement.

clockwork,

in anticipation of an assault, thaksin has already done what you say. the uprisings in ine Inner Outer areas such as the pivotal Bon Kai has been going on for days.

and as we can see from news reports this morning, the reds are now trying to position themselves in the Outer Outer areas of Bkk, in this case Ramkhamhaeng.

thaksin understands full well that an insurgency must never stop pressing the government. everyday it forces the army to shoot and terrorize inhabitants it is a victory for the insurgency.

and he understands that in an inurgency against a superior force there is no such thing as a fixed position forever. RatchaP remains Red as long it can be held at acceptable cost, then the Reds melt to any one of several alternatives, perhaps Klong Toei. and so on.

you are correct that agreement is the only way to stop the killing and save thailand. and given how thaskin is outfoxing the government and has the initiative, only an amnesty will work.

Are you not due on stage to hold a speech ???

[earthpig]

I'll bet you that an amnesty does happen, whether you like it or not.

And it won't be the first time. Were you around during the riots in 1992? Suchinda still plays golf, sits on company boards of directors and enjoys unfettered freedom, despite all the calls for his scalp while people were dying on the streets.

and there was an amnesty in '76 too.

even the nation this latter mentioned it today. that's the signal that amnesty is at hand or, at least, is being strongly put forward by some inside the gov.

if Bush could use brilliantly use anmnesty to bring barbarians into the fold in Sunniland, so can Abhsit bring Reds into the fold in Thailand.

its a tried and true formula that works.

[siampolee]

clockwork orange.

I think you will find that Suchinda Krayapoon has fallen off of his perch and as such it would indeed be an interesting board meeting if he decided to turn up.

Edited May 18, 2010 by siampolee

[earthpig]

Are you not due on stage to hold a speech ???

with stages all over bkk, i wouldnt know where to begin.

[Herm]

I'll bet you that an amnesty does happen, whether you like it or not.

And it won't be the first time. Were you around during the riots in 1992? Suchinda still plays golf, sits on company boards of directors and enjoys unfettered freedom, despite all the calls for his scalp while people were dying on the streets.

and there was an amnesty in '76 too.

even the nation this latter mentioned it today. that's the signal that amnesty is at hand or, at least, is being strongly put forward by some inside the gov.

if Bush could use brilliantly use anmnesty to bring barbarians into the fold in Sunniland, so can Abhsit bring Reds into the fold in Thailand.

its a tried and true formula that works.

You are doing it again, including the words Bush and brilliant in one sentence - ITS AN OXYMORON ! and if you really think that Baghdad is such a great democratic place why don't you move there ? but may be th daily bombings and suicide attacks may scare you or the nightly attacks on anything moving on the roads outside

Come on Weng admit, it is you your ass is gonna land in jail pretty soon but you won't be alone, you'll have plenty of company from your traitor friends and you can all spoon together

[ungcas]

Are you not due on stage to hold a speech ???

with stages all over bkk, i wouldnt know where to begin.

I think knowing when to stop is the bigger concern.

[clockworkorange]

clockwork orange.

I think you will find that Suchinda Krayapoon has fallen off of his perch and as such it would indeed be an interesting board meeting if he decided to turn up.

That's him - the same guy who was appointed Chairman of Telecom Holdings, the holding company of Telecom Asia after all the bloodshed that he had played a part in. If he has since died, that makes no difference to the fact that he enjoyed freedom, and his legacy is honoured, even: http://www.cabinet.thaigov.go.th/eng/pm_19.htm

If that's not an amnesty, what is?

You're too, and don't be surprised to see all the perpetrators of this current Thai mess walk away scot free.

[clockworkorange]

I'll bet you that an amnesty does happen, whether you like it or not.

And it won't be the first time. Were you around during the riots in 1992? Suchinda still plays golf, sits on company boards of directors and enjoys unfettered freedom, despite all the calls for his scalp while people were dying on the streets.

and there was an amnesty in '76 too.

even the nation this latter mentioned it today. that's the signal that amnesty is at hand or, at least, is being strongly put forward by some inside the gov.

if Bush could use brilliantly use anmnesty to bring barbarians into the fold in Sunniland, so can Abhsit bring Reds into the fold in Thailand.

its a tried and true formula that works.

You are doing it again, including the words Bush and brilliant in one sentence - ITS AN OXYMORON ! and if you really think that Baghdad is such a great democratic place why don't you move there ? but may be th daily bombings and suicide attacks may scare you or the nightly attacks on anything moving on the roads outside

Come on Weng admit, it is you your ass is gonna land in jail pretty soon but you won't be alone, you'll have plenty of company from your traitor friends and you can all spoon together

That method of argument typifies the kind of intimidation that is bringing Thailand down. Opposing viewpoint must be associated with a 'criminal' label, in this case calling a valid opponent 'Weng', putting the opponent in fear, shutting the opponent up.

I for one would take more notice of your comments, if they contained sensible points and reasonable arguments.

[lucjoker]

clockwork orange.

I think you will find that Suchinda Krayapoon has fallen off of his perch and as such it would indeed be an interesting board meeting if he decided to turn up.

28 pages ....of words in the air......bar-talk......old grandma's talk....about

something that does not concern us......and 95% of the thais not even stop from looking their daily soap !

But all these 28 pages full of "farang" wisdom (although most farangs i see are dement ,drunk and on their last money)will not change a thing.

Please ,to all,just look at it and dont interfier ! It is not our business !Stop commenting on it !

We all know it is politic BS,same all over the world,learn to live with it or choose a 25 up floor......

[seahorse]

Another hostage

Another victim of terrorism.

Some parents ...unbelievable...words fail me...in a battle zone...what is going on in their heads? These children have no choice. Their parents do. Get them out of there. Please, please, please.

Sorry, can't work out how to put photos on here.

[Roachiebkk]

Would you call that boy looking over the tyres a human shield.I suggest you print something factual.My thioughts would have been,he is showing the boy to the soldiers to show that he is there.

NOW

If someone had said the boy should not be there i would have agreed but dont spout crap on here

Carrying a child to a barricade where you are likely to encounter violence and then showing the child IS using the child as a human shield. The child shouldn't be there and the parents should be tried for negligence! If the troops take fire from that area they are now faced with the moral quandry --- return fire knowing a child is there or accept the fire!

Mixing in non-combatants with combatants is the very definition of using human shields.

I want to walk up to those parents and give them a good clip behind the ears. Morons

[englishoak]

lol I see the trolls have been in all day playing handbags at dawn again.

[jcbangkok]

Are you not due on stage to hold a speech ???

with stages all over bkk, i wouldnt know where to begin.

same as your trying to post rational credible stuff here

Edited May 18, 2010 by jcbangkok

[MaxLee]

The UDD's suggestion that they would disperse after the army backs down... sounds to me like another empty promise

Edited May 18, 2010 by MaxLee

[jcbangkok]

Amnesty?!?!?

I guess they could give the red leaders amnesty and then the yellow shirts might go and kill them all in which case we would of course have to give them amnesty too as well as the next group of violent lawbreaking mob(s) that take to the street because their person is not the PM despite the fact that the guy who is in charge has only passed policies to help them.

And of course with this kind of police we should just close down the prison system because we know a violent protest will happen there too and the only way to deal with it beyond causing injury and likely loss of life is to give into the convict's demands and let them free.

Edited May 18, 2010 by jcbangkok

[jcbangkok]

I don't know if it's allowed to link here ... but...

deleted

but that sounds to me like another empty promise

DELETE THE LINK before you get yourself suspended and read the forum rules ... almost all places are ok to link to but the Post is one of 3 you cannot.

Edit .. I meant this to be helpful but wrote quick before somebody reported you or a mod saw it. I believe there is a legal issue with linking to the Post and that is why it is kind of zero tolerance along with speaking negatively or incorrectly about the Monarchy.

Edited May 18, 2010 by jcbangkok

[MaxLee]

I don't know if it's allowed to link here ... but...

deleted

but that sounds to me like another empty promise

DELETE THE LINK before you get yourself suspended and read the forum rules ... almost all places are ok to link to but the Post is one of 3 you cannot.

I edited already,... why isn't it allowed anyway,... and besides. I'm so busy I don't have the freaking time to go through detailed forum rules.

As I said or edited... The UDD's next statement to quit the rally if the army backs down, sounds to me like another empty promise...

Edited May 18, 2010 by MaxLee

[lannarebirth]

I don't know if it's allowed to link here ... but...

deleted

but that sounds to me like another empty promise

DELETE THE LINK before you get yourself suspended and read the forum rules ... almost all places are ok to link to but the Post is one of 3 you cannot.

I edited already,... why isn't it allowed anyway,... and besides. I'm so busy I don't have the freaking time to go through detailed forum rules.

As I said or edited... The UDD's next statement to quit the rally if the army backs down, sounds to me like another empty promise...

In light of this announcement moments ago it certainly does:

Jatuporn: Everyone must stay focused. We've come too far to surrender.redshirts arnd Bangkok & provincs shud stay tuned for news /v @veen_NT

[A_Traveller]

Max the Post told Thai Visa that they would enter into legal action against them if they used Post journalism. Since the limits of fair use are not defined in Thailand, Thai Visa took the decision to reject any links to the Post of any form.

HTH

Regards