Thai Political Violence Far From Over: Analysts

[seahorse]

I would prefer you view on the matter rather than your fastidious observation!

I have thought about it (since I first read it). Most of the fires weren't haphazard as CRES has been discussing on TV.

It could be who is being alluded to. I don't know. No matter how this plays out, I don't think we will ever know for sure anyway.

I understand the assumption but I have a theory behind this - Thaksin made a boast within the last 7 days he had a trump card. It was fairly obvious the army were going to shut the stages down and when they did two things happened.

1 - satellites were set up to draw troops away from the main stages - to thin ranks (presumably) which is an old army trick - spread the aggressors thinly etc and then that would prolong the 'battle' but the inevitable would happen - but

2 - I think the 'hits' have been carefully orchestrated - they hit the thai economy by sabotage of banks, media and international perception of collapse of retail showing nothing is safe by taking down Central World etc. The banks where all the 'seized' assets belonged were a follow on to Bangkok Bank where Thaksin had most of his funds. The additional banks were where the money trail list held their cash assets. The hits on the stock exchange and narcotics bureau, and civil district buildings et al were a direct undermining activity aimed purely at causing international reassessment and condemnation.

Whoever did this is committing the gravest terrorist act and accordingly should be arrested, charged and removed from society but it is all a bit too covert at this point. I would certainly start with Thaksin and work back. I also think this is an Interpol matter now as no way would it be intelligent to have Thaksin brought back to Thailand as he would create riots simply by being here through the misguided followers.

I don't think we will ever get a full picture of who was behind this. Anyway, Thaksin will take the brunt of the blame, hence, I doubt he will be visiting Thailand anytime soon.

My question is what happens now? In order for the Reds to win, they have to either take over the whole country or win an election and it is easier to win an election. They have succeeded in destabilizing the country, but they are no closer to control than they were when they started. Thaksin talked of guerrilla tactics, but again, to what end? They will still have to win an election.

So what now?

I think we will.

No they don't.

Be careful people.

[Herm]

Thaksin talked of guerrilla tactics, but again, to what end? They will still have to win an election.

So what now?

I think we will.

No they don't.

Be careful people.

I'm pretty sure it is over, Thaksin and the reds have lost, largely due to their own incompetence. The term being a "red" has now become an insult in Thailand meaning "being really, really stupid and violent"

The next elections will result in a landslide win for Abhisit who has proven his cool "chaa yen yen" and his care for the people not matter how dumb they are. He could have easily stopped this much quicker and with much more loss of life and most Thai's know this, but he is "Jai dee"

The final nail in the red's coffin was the looting and burning at the end which showed their real nature and way of thinking (if one can call it that) to the population in general and any small level of sympathy that may have existed disappeared in a flash.

Even a guerrilla war needs support within a large part of the population within the area it takes place like the Muslim population in the south show for the insurgents. The "red's" simply do not have this. In the south it's based on religion which can be a strong motivator, the "red's" have no legitimizing factor any more, well, never really had but were fooled by the rhetoric of their masters.

[lungmi]

Been living here a very long time, in my opinion, the biggest problem in Thailand is the inability to use logic by most Thais which is not limited to the poor classes. This combined with short term thinking has held the whole country back somewhat.

Thaksin and the red shirt leaders are the best example of the inability to think logical and long term. Had they, instead of inciting hate with their speeches, insisted on a Gandhi style passive demonstration, they may have in the end succeeded, but in typical Thai manner, greed and emotions took over and in the end they lost.

The short term thinking is a typical Asean thing, One simple example, large Hotels are build without triple glazing because of initial cost, not realizing that this would be recouped within a short term and thereafter with energy savings .... the thinking is "I want it now.."

At the schooling level this is reflected by parents, especially within the up country and farming communities in the North East, that a new motorcycle is more important than "wasting" money or time on education for their children, passing the responsibility on to the government. However, even if, as is the case in Thailand, the government pays for the lot, children are often truant for many days because of some chores they have to do for the parents and leave school early to make money in some low grade job, but its money NOW

Abhisit has already reforms in place improving access to schooling and there are more coming, but what good does this do if a large proportion of the parents don't care ?

Someone is posting something about IQ, but he doesn't know what it means. An IQ test tests what an IQ test means to be Intelligence. I have an IQ of 176. Why? I developed one as linguist at the Psychology departement of the University of Freiburg. The IQ of Thai in this limited (antiscientific) western concept may be low, but the EQ (Emotional Intelligence) is surely higher than of most farang. Why "Bar-Girls" (no moral connotation) are successful in Thailand? Their (EQ) is higher than the underdeveloped EQ of Farangs. They listen with their EQ to the wrotten emotional world of many farangs and backfill the lacks - and ask professional fee.

The use of logic is different. The Sino-Thai can take care of money, mathematics of money. Old culture. They understand Farang logic (Ockhams razor, differential diagnostic, polyvalent logic (yes/no/may be/ plausible), deepth structure and surface structure of a phenonemon), but not as the first step of understanding. Even highly instructed monks have problems to understand the logical teaching of the Buddha (Pali is an indo-european language with aboriginal "farang-logic".)

[ItsMeMike]

Your IQ is awesome. Your spelling, not so much.

[lungmi]

Your IQ is awesome. Your spelling, not so much.

Yes, my IQ is aweful, because I made it. You missed the self-irony.

[lungmi]

Your IQ is awesome. Your spelling, not so much.

You missed my self-irony. By developing one part of the test I promoted my IQ.

[lannarebirth]

lannarebirth....

finally.... most of us are incorrect in our assumption and thinking....

that we are mostly smarter and more superior than most....

some university camps seem to agree that.... as far as smartness and intelligence are concerned....

....and that of the Asian American population being significantly higher - than that of the White American population (based on the self-identification of those tested).

now folks, do not go and jump off into chao pra ya river now....

now.... is thailand counted as an asian country.... an interesting thought....

Well, I think you're making an assumption that most peole think they are smarter and more superior than most other people. I find Thais to be as intelligent as any other group of people I have met, particularly in empirical based work where Thai culture and social crippling doesn't affect their capabilities. I think probably a much more possible cause of low IQ scoring could be from things like malnutriytion, Iodine deficiencies and fetal alcohol syndrome. Now back on topic hopefully. Good Day.

Edited May 22, 2010 by lannarebirth

[scotbeve]

something to think about

Suthikiart Jirathiwat and Pracha Maleenont are quite close to Thaksin Shinawatra. They are still on good terms. If the reds set the blaze it would not make sense at all.

Places burnt down are symbolic of regime/system and representation of success. However the perpetrators are sparing many business locations

Dusit, MBK, ASTV, Nation, SisaoTewes, Pullman Kingpower, all left untouched.

Those would've been the reds' targets. Remember who was feuding with Central and BEC before all of this? Who was the biggest enemy of the Central Group and Ch. 3 in the past 3 years? The direct beneficiary of the fire is not reds or Thaksin...it's the man who feuded.

The fire kills 5 birds with one stone: Channel 3, Central, Thaksin, Reds, Anti-Monarchists. Pongpat was used. Game over for Thaksin as he and reds are delegitimized, while opponents of Central/Bangkok Bank/BEC benefit. Think about this for a minute and you'll realise the missing jigsaw of this puzzle.

The men behind the blaze are the men who wanted to drive BEC/Central/BBL out of business and blame it on protestors. The fires irrevocably end the reds shirts movement for now, while Thaksin cannot conceivably ever return to politics or even to Thai soil.

The victims of the fire are not Thaksin/Reds's enemies. They are the enemies of Thaksin's enemies. Ultra-hardcore-right-winged conservative types stand to benefit from this chaos.

Watch the aftermath closely and you'll see. Those who are desperate about clinging on to power are required to create an element of fear in the heart of its population. The incentive is greater than those who are aspiring to attain power.

People will go to great lengths to protect remaining interests while the threat is eliminated to foster a rally-round-the-regime type of feeling.

The goal of the movement to eliminate Thaksin forever from the system was not accomplished until today. It is end-game for him. We lose. Regime wins.

May I stress not coincidence ASTV, Nation, PullmanKingPower, Dusit remain untouched. This battle is deeper than what meets the eyes. And SiSao is untouched.

A provocative theory. But I smell a sophisticated PR attempt to deflect blame from Taksin and the Reds. Who gains anything from a 'third hand' theory, except the Reds as they have always been loathe to accept responsibility for violence caused by their supporters.

Selecting between competing theories the simplest is most likely to be correct. This is just too convoluted.

And please name sources if you are not the author. This is necessary for a proper debate on the forum.

Why would it be impossible to peruse the thought of a "third party hand"? Has it not occurred in other countries? Perhaps the bottom-line-purpose doesn't have to be financial, it could be that someone wants the days of serfdom (on a much larger scale than present) to return and evolve from all of this.

[datum]

A post linking to an article with questionable content has been deleted. Along with the replies to it. Posting a link to an article is the same as actually posting the words.

2) Not to express disrespect of the King of Thailand or anyone else in the Thai royal family, whether living or deceased, nor to criticize the monarchy as an institution. Speculation, comments and discussion of either a political or personal nature are not allowed when discussing HM The King or the Royal family. Discussion of the lese majeste law or lese majeste cases is permitted on the forum, providing no comment or speculation is made referencing the royal family. To breach this rule will result in immediate ban.

The post was mine and I understood after a message from a moderator that the content of the link (not my comment) that I posted might cause legal problems to the forum owners if it can be related to violation of LM law. I respect Thailand and it's people and I accept of course the LM law since I've choose to live in Thailand. To make things clear I've had no intention to post something against this principle; I just didn't realize that the content of the links was questionable according to the Thai law. And I didn't realize this because I am not used to censorship.

I do not want to cause any problems to the forum but at the same time I refuse to start self-censoring my posts. This is why I’ll stop posting in political threads of the Thaivisa forum. Censorship (including self-censorship) is for me one of the most undemocratic practices.

Since this is my last post in the political threads of the forum I want to state something. I joined this forum to learn more about the conflict in Thailand. I’ve made some conclusions for myself and I learned things here. As you have probably see in my posts the concept and practice of “free information flow” is for me a life guiding principle. I do not know the deeper causes of the political conflict in Thailand and I am very in-experienced with Thai history and Thai politics to support one of the two “groups”.

What I know though is that the last three months the censorship of information in Thailand is increasing exponentially. Hundreds of web sites have been blocked and they are blocked every day. At the same time it seems that there is a prevailing opinion from many members in this forum that “only government endorsed information should be available to the Thai society”. I am sorry but I have to mention that this opinion was the opinion of a well known infamous "minister of propaganda". If Thai society in its total will adopt in the long term this opinion then only bad things can happen to the Thai people. Maybe in some years China will be a paradise of free information flow compared to Thailand.

As I’ve said do not expect any answer if you make any comments on this post. I’ve promised to the moderators that this is my last post in the political threads of the forum.

Good night and good luck.

[lannarebirth]

^ I hope you reconsider your stand on no more posts in the political forum. You seem to be a thoughtful person with a considered opinion. Until you do post again may I recommend some reading up on the political history of this place you've chosen to make your home.

Regards

[A_Traveller]

Seconded. Have to say there are some recent articles out there which seemed expressly designed to insult and adding heat with no illumination. There are specific areas which we have to avoid, and whilst I agree that self censorship can be regressive at least here we are all in the same 'elephant, what elephant? There's an elephant in the room!' framework.

Regards

Edited May 25, 2010 by A_Traveller

[burleychassis]

I understand the assumption but I have a theory behind this - Thaksin made a boast within the last 7 days he had a trump card. It was fairly obvious the army were going to shut the stages down and when they did two things happened.

1 - satellites were set up to draw troops away from the main stages - to thin ranks (presumably) which is an old army trick - spread the aggressors thinly etc and then that would prolong the 'battle' but the inevitable would happen - but

2 - I think the 'hits' have been carefully orchestrated - they hit the thai economy by sabotage of banks, media and international perception of collapse of retail showing nothing is safe by taking down Central World etc. The banks where all the 'seized' assets belonged were a follow on to Bangkok Bank where Thaksin had most of his funds. The additional banks were where the money trail list held their cash assets. The hits on the stock exchange and narcotics bureau, and civil district buildings et al were a direct undermining activity aimed purely at causing international reassessment and condemnation.

Whoever did this is committing the gravest terrorist act and accordingly should be arrested, charged and removed from society but it is all a bit too covert at this point. I would certainly start with Thaksin and work back. I also think this is an Interpol matter now as no way would it be intelligent to have Thaksin brought back to Thailand as he would create riots simply by being here through the misguided followers.

I don't think we will ever get a full picture of who was behind this. Anyway, Thaksin will take the brunt of the blame, hence, I doubt he will be visiting Thailand anytime soon.

My question is what happens now? In order for the Reds to win, they have to either take over the whole country or win an election and it is easier to win an election. They have succeeded in destabilizing the country, but they are no closer to control than they were when they started. Thaksin talked of guerrilla tactics, but again, to what end? They will still have to win an election.

So what now?

I think we will.

No they don't.

Be careful people.

It is a very unpopular FACT that they did win the outright in elections (something the Democrats have never managed to do) and the army had to oust them on trumped up charges.

Thai Rak Thai under Thaksin would win tomorrow, next week, next year and next millenium and this is why the army are again out on the streets in massive numbers to ensure that democracy does not break out in any free form.

I am with Datum and am going to stop posting on this site as it has fallen victim to censorship.

Good luck finding sponsors when they realise how little respect and influence this site now has.

[Chaimai]

I am with Datum and am going to stop posting on this site as it has fallen victim to censorship.

A short-lived existence for you burley - no doubt you will be back tomorrow with a different username.

NOTE: datum only said he was no longer posting on the political forum.

[nakachalet]

^ I hope you reconsider your stand on no more posts in the political forum. You seem to be a thoughtful person with a considered opinion. Until you do post again may I recommend some reading up on the political history of this place you've chosen to make your home.

Regards

well spoken.... seconded

[gl9999]

I understand the assumption but I have a theory behind this - Thaksin made a boast within the last 7 days he had a trump card. It was fairly obvious the army were going to shut the stages down and when they did two things happened.

1 - satellites were set up to draw troops away from the main stages - to thin ranks (presumably) which is an old army trick - spread the aggressors thinly etc and then that would prolong the 'battle' but the inevitable would happen - but

2 - I think the 'hits' have been carefully orchestrated - they hit the thai economy by sabotage of banks, media and international perception of collapse of retail showing nothing is safe by taking down Central World etc. The banks where all the 'seized' assets belonged were a follow on to Bangkok Bank where Thaksin had most of his funds. The additional banks were where the money trail list held their cash assets. The hits on the stock exchange and narcotics bureau, and civil district buildings et al were a direct undermining activity aimed purely at causing international reassessment and condemnation.

Whoever did this is committing the gravest terrorist act and accordingly should be arrested, charged and removed from society but it is all a bit too covert at this point. I would certainly start with Thaksin and work back. I also think this is an Interpol matter now as no way would it be intelligent to have Thaksin brought back to Thailand as he would create riots simply by being here through the misguided followers.

I don't think we will ever get a full picture of who was behind this. Anyway, Thaksin will take the brunt of the blame, hence, I doubt he will be visiting Thailand anytime soon.

My question is what happens now? In order for the Reds to win, they have to either take over the whole country or win an election and it is easier to win an election. They have succeeded in destabilizing the country, but they are no closer to control than they were when they started. Thaksin talked of guerrilla tactics, but again, to what end? They will still have to win an election.

So what now?

I think we will.

No they don't.

Be careful people.

It is a very unpopular FACT that they did win the outright in elections (something the Democrats have never managed to do) and the army had to oust them on trumped up charges.

Thai Rak Thai under Thaksin would win tomorrow, next week, next year and next millenium and this is why the army are again out on the streets in massive numbers to ensure that democracy does not break out in any free form.

I am with Datum and am going to stop posting on this site as it has fallen victim to censorship.

Good luck finding sponsors when they realise how little respect and influence this site now has.

Don't let the door hit your fat ass on the way out.

[bunuel]

Very wise post - far too many people see what they want to see and jump to emotional conclusions parroting the views of their cronies with cerebral rectal inversions..

something to think about

Suthikiart Jirathiwat and Pracha Maleenont are quite close to Thaksin Shinawatra. They are still on good terms. If the reds set the blaze it would not make sense at all.

Places burnt down are symbolic of regime/system and representation of success. However the perpetrators are sparing many business locations

Dusit, MBK, ASTV, Nation, SisaoTewes, Pullman Kingpower, all left untouched.

Those would've been the reds' targets. Remember who was feuding with Central and BEC before all of this? Who was the biggest enemy of the Central Group and Ch. 3 in the past 3 years? The direct beneficiary of the fire is not reds or Thaksin...it's the man who feuded.

The fire kills 5 birds with one stone: Channel 3, Central, Thaksin, Reds, Anti-Monarchists. Pongpat was used. Game over for Thaksin as he and reds are delegitimized, while opponents of Central/Bangkok Bank/BEC benefit. Think about this for a minute and you'll realise the missing jigsaw of this puzzle.

The men behind the blaze are the men who wanted to drive BEC/Central/BBL out of business and blame it on protestors. The fires irrevocably end the reds shirts movement for now, while Thaksin cannot conceivably ever return to politics or even to Thai soil.

The victims of the fire are not Thaksin/Reds's enemies. They are the enemies of Thaksin's enemies. Ultra-hardcore-right-winged conservative types stand to benefit from this chaos.

Watch the aftermath closely and you'll see. Those who are desperate about clinging on to power are required to create an element of fear in the heart of its population. The incentive is greater than those who are aspiring to attain power.

People will go to great lengths to protect remaining interests while the threat is eliminated to foster a rally-round-the-regime type of feeling.

The goal of the movement to eliminate Thaksin forever from the system was not accomplished until today. It is end-game for him. We lose. Regime wins.

May I stress not coincidence ASTV, Nation, PullmanKingPower, Dusit remain untouched. This battle is deeper than what meets the eyes. And SiSao is untouched.

[lannarebirth]

^ I hope you reconsider your stand on no more posts in the political forum. You seem to be a thoughtful person with a considered opinion. Until you do post again may I recommend some reading up on the political history of this place you've chosen to make your home.

Regards

Here's some papers/books for your reading list which may put the current struggle in some perspective:

http://books.google.com/books?id=-gW9Z0-q_...p;q&f=false

http://www.asafas.kyoto-u.ac.jp/publicatio...602/454-470.pdf

http://www.questia.com/googleScholar.qst?docId=5000661990

[bunuel]

aka " BLACK FLAG " ops in the old KGB

The men behind the blaze are the men who wanted to drive BEC/Central/BBL out of business and blame it on protestors.

It's called false flag - conducting a "terrorist" act so that the blame goes on your adversery. The classic historical case is Operation Gladio, look it up. There have been other noteworthy cases as well, such as the Lavon Affair, King David Hotel bombing, all of which fit this model.

[souvenirdeparis]

I am with Datum and am going to stop posting on this site as it has fallen victim to censorship.

A short-lived existence for you burley - no doubt you will be back tomorrow with a different username.

NOTE: datum only said he was no longer posting on the political forum.

as the saying goes "let the door knob hit you

where the good Lord split you"