ExpatJ Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 (edited) Happy new year to all. I thought i'd post to try and get this thread started again... I opened a new account with kim eng over xmas- their commission to half that of my current broker (SCB) and i have always wanted to understand the whys, wherefores and whatthehecks of trading online - its been interesting getting to grips with those stock screens with hundreds of numbers ticking and flashing etc etc. Anyway, my first purchase on kim eng- i riskly decided to put all the money i transferred into the account (1,200,000 baht) into one stock....QH. I recommend this stock now... low value 2.2 baht per share, current charts indicate an upward momentum, JP Morgan, SCB and KBANK list target prices of 2.8- 3.2 baht. But three factors swung it for me 1) it is due to pay a 6% dividend on May 1st which means that the price should increase near that time as investors look to buy high dividend paying stocks and 2) i looked at the top 15 share holders saw Chase Manhattan, HSBC, DBS, Singapore investment fund- all blue chip global investment companies- they cant all be wrong. 3) it has a high daily trading column for a low cap stock often 10s millions per day (unusual for the SET). In the US as long term buy and forget play for next few years for my wifes Roth IRA i just bought Shell (constant 5% dividends) and Mosiac (MOS) a potash/fertiliser company (food prices/demand only going to go up and they operate in an oligopoly environment) and Fidelity Contrafund. Edited January 7, 2011 by ExpatJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiangMaiFun Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hi Ray. I see by one of your previous posts that now you consider yourself a trader rather than a value investor...congrats on your decision. I would like to do both, as I am a value investor and a member of Thai Stocks, the same as you. I enjoy Paul's advice, but I am retired with time on my hands and would like to do a bit more with stocks. What information/websites or advice do I need to get started? I have followed the same path as you (reading the same investment books, joining TS,etc.) and would like to expand my knowledge of investing in stocks in Thailand. I know that Thaivisa will not allow members to post their e-mail addresses so, how can I contact you? Thanks Lynn Are you based in Bangkok? I started investing in thai stocks in January this year- was hoping to meet a few like minded people here- pity that Ray is in the country side! how, exactly, are you investing? you have a broker down in BKK? I'm looking for one in CNX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ray23 Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think Kim Eng has a office in Chaing Mai, once your sit up it's easily done over the internet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpatJ Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think Kim Eng has a office in Chaing Mai, once your sit up it's easily done over the internet. Hi Ray On kim eng- i know the commission is low 0.15% but do you pay a commission when you buy AND sell a stock? Is the VAT 7% charge on the commission value? What do you pay in tax when you sell stock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abrak Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 By the way Abvrak I have came to conclusion I'm a trader, not an investor Yeah well I did spot that many months ago. The 'mid to long term investors' concept went out of the window a while back. Realistically though, you are probably only a trader because the last six months have been well suited to a trader (almost perfect market conditions I would have thought) while value investors often get left behind in all the excitement. I suspect if the market had been dull and boring you would say you were an investor not a trader but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ray23 Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 (edited) Truthfully with eight months experience, hard to tell where things will go. I do know I loaded up dividend stocks when started my new account with Kim Eng. I have ten companies eight of which are better to just leave alone. I left two for trading. So who knows what I will be when I grow up. Edited January 7, 2011 by ray23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ray23 Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just finished reading the local news, many are blaming the SET fall on the Baht depreciation: Many are calling for the SET to go below the 1000 mark. Normally that would have my finger on the sale button, But, nothing is hitting my stop loss level. The highest loss I have is 3.80%, They are blaming the net sale of by foreigners on the strength of that baht. I'm in the odd position of either way I win, since my income is paid in dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpatJ Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just finished reading the local news, many are blaming the SET fall on the Baht depreciation: Many are calling for the SET to go below the 1000 mark. Normally that would have my finger on the sale button, But, nothing is hitting my stop loss level. The highest loss I have is 3.80%, They are blaming the net sale of by foreigners on the strength of that baht. I'm in the odd position of either way I win, since my income is paid in dollars. I have to decided to ride this one out and hold my stocks...i still think there will be an overall big increase in the SET and other markets this year..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ray23 Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Same here as long a Politics don't get involved. I took a long time picking the stocks I hold. They are good companies I have two speculative. If I sale anything it will be those. Did you make contact with Lynn yet I assume your back in Country? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpatJ Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Same here as long a Politics don't get involved. I took a long time picking the stocks I hold. They are good companies I have two speculative. If I sale anything it will be those. Did you make contact with Lynn yet I assume your back in Country? yes, we chatted on phone...im travelling a fair bit this month..may meet up when im back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ray23 Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 I know he has been looking forward to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpatJ Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Hello all! This thread has been dormant for months now- im guessing because the SET fared poorly since January 2011 and its no fun positing about stocks when your portfolio is down!!! My portfolio of thai stocks reached -15% in February, but has been improving its now down 5% and some individual stocks are now making a profit again.. But yesterday i made my first trade of 2011, sold KBANK for 6% return (bought it aboiut 4 months ago)- so 2,000 $ in the bank. I bought QH about 3 months ago for a dividend play (high dividend stock, buy then sell just before the XD date (April) on the hope that lots of people buy it for the dividend for a quickish trade. My lessons learned- i bought it too far in advance - 1 month before XD is the buy time i will aim for in the future. On the positive side, global markets seem to be picking up nicely- my BRIC fund is performing very well, and my Indonesian fund has increased alot recently (though still negative !). It looks like the bailouts are continuing in Europe and the US is still printing money so i think there will another wave of liquidity moving towards to Asian markets (gravy for us). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpatJ Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 For anyone using Kim Eng- where in the website do they have a stock screener? I want to search for thai stocks with low relative strength index numbers (RSI less @30)...thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpatJ Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Just thought id share my latest buying strategy.. My advice- be prepared to trade frequently- weekly or so. Get a list of the top 20 SET growth stock companies then monitor them daily and buy those with RSIs @30-35 and positive buy MACD signals- then be prepared to sell them in 1-3 weeks taking the profit. This is my basic strategy. But be warned the temptation is too hold onto a stock once its increased 7-8% hoping for more returns- in every case where i have done that the stock has dropped down to - XX% within a few weeks and i have ended up having to hold it for months until its price recovers. So make sure you sell when you hit @7-8% return using this technical analysis strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EPattaya Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I like the idea of owning some Thai stocks as well. I am currently in the process of setting up new bank and trading accounts that are not in USD. We won't be able to afford to live here in the next 5 years if the Thai baht keeps heading in the same direction. When we first arrived you could get 42 baht for 1 usd. I am thinking of setting the accounts up in SGD. I found the best place to look for high yield dividend stocks is through the dividend.com stock screener. I am currently watching Varopakorn Public Company Limited and United Securities Public Company Limited, not sure how they will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ray23 Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 And the results of a year are ...................................... Right now I'm lined up for a good cash infusion in dividends over the next few months beyond my little 20 K a month I'm at 12 months now that 240K invested with reinvestment and more mistakes then I care to think about, stands at 390 K baht. So the plan works now all I have to do is keep working the plan and get real lucky. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maipasathai Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Nice to see you are doing well Ray. My result after 9 months in R-multiples and % Win% 57.7 (somewhat better than my back test) Won R-multiples 17.7 Loss R-multiples 4.2 W/L ratio 4.13 (won 4 baht for every baht lost and in line with the back test) Shortest time in trade 20 days Longest time in trade 232 days Average time in trade 128 days CAGR at the moment at 26% so can't match your performance It's a simple 60 days Donchian channel system with a few adds on. Most focused on risk management with trailing stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpatJ Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Nice to see you are doing well Ray. My result after 9 months in R-multiples and % Win% 57.7 (somewhat better than my back test) Won R-multiples 17.7 Loss R-multiples 4.2 W/L ratio 4.13 (won 4 baht for every baht lost and in line with the back test) Shortest time in trade 20 days Longest time in trade 232 days Average time in trade 128 days CAGR at the moment at 26% so can't match your performance It's a simple 60 days Donchian channel system with a few adds on. Most focused on risk management with trailing stops. Can i ask which programme/website do you use to run backtests on the SET? I havent found any so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maipasathai Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Nice to see you are doing well Ray. My result after 9 months in R-multiples and % Win% 57.7 (somewhat better than my back test) Won R-multiples 17.7 Loss R-multiples 4.2 W/L ratio 4.13 (won 4 baht for every baht lost and in line with the back test) Shortest time in trade 20 days Longest time in trade 232 days Average time in trade 128 days CAGR at the moment at 26% so can't match your performance It's a simple 60 days Donchian channel system with a few adds on. Most focused on risk management with trailing stops. Can i ask which programme/website do you use to run backtests on the SET? I havent found any so far... Metestock. The drawback is it doesn't adjust for didvidens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpatJ Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Nice to see you are doing well Ray. My result after 9 months in R-multiples and % Win% 57.7 (somewhat better than my back test) Won R-multiples 17.7 Loss R-multiples 4.2 W/L ratio 4.13 (won 4 baht for every baht lost and in line with the back test) Shortest time in trade 20 days Longest time in trade 232 days Average time in trade 128 days CAGR at the moment at 26% so can't match your performance It's a simple 60 days Donchian channel system with a few adds on. Most focused on risk management with trailing stops. Can i ask which programme/website do you use to run backtests on the SET? I havent found any so far... Metestock. The drawback is it doesn't adjust for didvidens. I looked at metastock last year- pricey- around 400$ but im tempted to buy it .. Can i ask where do you load your daily SET info from, is it an easy process?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maipasathai Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Nice to see you are doing well Ray. My result after 9 months in R-multiples and % Win% 57.7 (somewhat better than my back test) Won R-multiples 17.7 Loss R-multiples 4.2 W/L ratio 4.13 (won 4 baht for every baht lost and in line with the back test) Shortest time in trade 20 days Longest time in trade 232 days Average time in trade 128 days CAGR at the moment at 26% so can't match your performance It's a simple 60 days Donchian channel system with a few adds on. Most focused on risk management with trailing stops. Can i ask which programme/website do you use to run backtests on the SET? I havent found any so far... Metestock. The drawback is it doesn't adjust for didvidens. I looked at metastock last year- pricey- around 400$ but im tempted to buy it .. Can i ask where do you load your daily SET info from, is it an easy process?? I'm trading with Asia Plus and they have it for free. The historical data I bought, think it was about 1000 Baht. It doesn't have any money manager so if you want to back test a risk profile it is useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpatJ Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I looked at metastock last year- pricey- around 400$ but im tempted to buy it .. Can i ask where do you load your daily SET info from, is it an easy process?? I'm trading with Asia Plus and they have it for free. The historical data I bought, think it was about 1000 Baht. It doesn't have any money manager so if you want to back test a risk profile it is useless. many thanks, ill check out asiaplus.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ray23 Posted April 3, 2011 Author Share Posted April 3, 2011 At one point I regrouped and pulled 590K out, so actually did a bit better then I posted but I wanted to try Kim Eng Fees are less and pretty good info avialable. That being said I liked the charting feature better on Asia Plus so I left a 100K in it. It's still recovering from the 1st quarter so down about 15K. You can sign up for market reports from both that are free if you trade with them Kim Eng reports I get are always in English Asia Plus I get them both in Thai and English. I have had better luck with English Speakers with Kim Eng. Easy to call Bangkok and get a contact with the ananlysis that is working a particular stock. I still have not found anyone that really follows the Mai. I did pretty good with Mai so I think that could be a good thing to have if I can ever find anyone who follows it. I didn't renew with Thaistocks, honestly I asked to many questions, ran into trouble with posting to much. It was good as far as research went. But, I think you would be better served if you know more about what you are doing I don't yet. Hard for me to even believe this myself but I consumed 15 books on inve4sting and I still have questions LOL Dividends I ran a side count on that mine was 21K last year. with just a bit of help that would beat the bank rates which was my goal in he first place. These days what I hold are the ones picked most pay dividends above 5% I stopped posting not because of the lousy last quarter but, there just didn't seem to be much interest in the thread any longer. I promised a report at the end of the year the good bad and ugly. I did OK I'm sure there are others who did better. But, for my first year no complaints I still have a lot to learn. I think control of ones hunches and emotions is tough I'm still working on that. Reasearch, Reasearch, Reasearch, Reasearch, Reasearch, Reasearch, Reasearch, and then some Reasearch, before you put money in is the key. O would think if you don't want to stay on top of things, put it in a mutual funds. In that research making contacts with others who are willing to share knowledge and you to do the same. I actually did that through three different threads like this. I would highly recommend that to any newbie. Well guys I hope everyone has a great year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ray23 Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 This is seriously good news for Thai Investors, needed I would say since the garment manufactures are headed to Vietnam http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/economics/230356/japanese-firms-want-thailand-switch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpatJ Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Hello all! This thread has been dormant for months now- im guessing because the SET fared poorly since January 2011 and its no fun positing about stocks when your portfolio is down!!! My portfolio of thai stocks reached -15% in February, but has been improving its now down 5% and some individual stocks are now making a profit again.. But yesterday i made my first trade of 2011, sold KBANK for 6% return (bought it aboiut 4 months ago)- so 2,000 $ in the bank. I bought QH about 3 months ago for a dividend play (high dividend stock, buy then sell just before the XD date (April) on the hope that lots of people buy it for the dividend for a quickish trade. My lessons learned- i bought it too far in advance - 1 month before XD is the buy time i will aim for in the future. On the positive side, global markets seem to be picking up nicely- my BRIC fund is performing very well, and my Indonesian fund has increased alot recently (though still negative !). It looks like the bailouts are continuing in Europe and the US is still printing money so i think there will another wave of liquidity moving towards to Asian markets (gravy for us). My QH play mentioned above is working well - XD date is in May, bought it 3 months ago on expectation it will increase in price as people buy it before the XD date for its high dividend payout- overall its up +97,000 baht since i bought it and i expect this will increase before the XD date in May. Also my overall thai portfolio is only negative 2% (big improvement from -15% in January!) - which means i can cash out some of my profitable shares (e.g. QH) and begin trading again more frequently, yay ! But big cloud on horizon- end of QE in July- may lead to big withdrawl of money from asian stocks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ray23 Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 10% profit and ton of dividends starting in at the end of the month through May. Picked up 150 Warrants on Tasco to sale or convert. Heck I'm not even holding the stock at the moment weird huh. Officially starting my second year now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpatJ Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 10% profit and ton of dividends starting in at the end of the month through May. Picked up 150 Warrants on Tasco to sale or convert. Heck I'm not even holding the stock at the moment weird huh. Officially starting my second year now. Nice profit. I also bought gold in November 2010 and its up 8% as of now; my US stocks up 10%, indonesian stocks exactly breaking even. Nice upswing in general in the last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ray23 Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 10% profit and ton of dividends starting in at the end of the month through May. Picked up 150 Warrants on Tasco to sale or convert. Heck I'm not even holding the stock at the moment weird huh. Officially starting my second year now. Nice profit. I also bought gold in November 2010 and its up 8% as of now; my US stocks up 10%, indonesian stocks exactly breaking even. Nice upswing in general in the last month. Ya no complaints that was from the first quarter on of this year. Amazing day today wonder what tomorrow is going to bring. Gold breaking 1500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpatJ Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 I'm going to try a new dividend based strategy next week. DTAC has a big dividend XD date next week- i will buy on April 26 just after the XD date on the day the price drops to take into account the dividend % because ive noticed that for big dividend/price drops @5%, the stock price sometimes bounces upwards by several percentage points the following day...so buy on April 26 and sell a day or two/three later... Anyone tried a similar strategy before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ray23 Posted April 22, 2011 Author Share Posted April 22, 2011 Sort of you may have to wait a bit more then three days. I rotate through the socks starting in March once I have qualified for the dividend I wait for a sale point above break even and buy another dividend stock. You can find even Mai stocks that pay 5 to 8 % dividends. I then reinvest the dividends as a part of growth goals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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