Thai Stocks For Mid To Long Term Investors

[ray23]

I know there are other threads about Thai stocks, but I can't find any that deal with this aspect. So I'll start one using the post that was in the ( Why I wouldn't invest in Thai Stocks) I'm very new to this aspect of life. I've done OK and probably started at the worst time. It was just before the first deaths were experienced in Bangkok. But I had reliable advice, I was very careful and still am, that caution has cost me a few baht.

But being new and no experience slowly was the key for me. Since the start I have now built up an account over 100K and I seem to hold between 6.5 to 8% profit. That sure beats what I would get in a bank. It's gong to take a lot more then a month to find out if the decision was good or not. My plan should get me into the 300K range by the end of the year.

So I know interest in this, I will only deal in Thai stocks simply because that is what I can afford to do. The Thai economy is based on a firm foundation. More cash then debt some good solid companies here. A quick look at the Thai Baht will tell you a lot about the economy, practically bullet proof.

Is there risk of course there is, I don't know of any business that risk doesn't come with the territory. But you can limit that risk to what is something you can deal with.

My hopes are that more experienced Thai investors will share there thoughts here. The rest of the e-mail is from the original thread:

"I agree there are well managed established companies here. Until I got into this I had the same thought they didn't exist in Thailand. But, they do exist. We probably think that way because for the most part we never have contact with them.

I'm still trying to learn to do the proper research. Right now I get that through Thaistocks.com, Paul has been an investor here for around 20 years. His research includes company visits. Works in small and medium caps. You can tap into that knowledge as either a paid member or a pubic member up to you.

I know my limits and would limit my mistakes as much as possible. So I eased into this at 15K a month. Not investing anything that I couldn't lose and walk away from. If you follow guide lines and are diversified. you would really have to have your brain park to lose everything. You can sell anytime.

This time frame has been a mess to say the least, but by listening and following through I still made a profit, That doesn't mean that I made money on each stock. It means that the portfolio made money I only had one that was losing more then I was willing to accept. I sold it and got a portion on my investment back took about 15 seconds.

None of the others have even met a 10% loss, so I wait for them to move to the positive.

Originally I was told that no broker would talk to me without at least 200K to invest, by several people. But if you do the work you can find something that fits your needs. Asiaplus at Bangkok Bank will let you get started with 15K baht.

I also opened a fund with Aberdeen for my wife at 5k a month.

I've slowly built the stock account up to 100K. I'm not making a fortune but I can't lose a fortune either. But. I'm learning and I know I have dues to pay. Not really many sources available for that. Very few will even discuss Thai Stocks on the forums.

The first thing I did was make five year plan for this and now I will work that plan. It is encouraging to see a profit as quickly as I did.

Tell you one thing for sure I made more money on this then I did the 1/2% on the savings in the bank. I have more then enough there to take care of emergencies.

There is risk in any business, including investing. But if you have a good plan you can set the level you willing to risk.

I wish I could offer more insight. But, this is the level a I'm at and a long way to go."

[ray23]

Well yesterday down 1200 Baht, got that back and another 2500 today.

Not sure what did it. Maybe the fact there won't be a change in Government.

[Abrak]

Well Ray,

Well you post is very sensible in your own way. I think that Aberdeen Asset Management are one of the best international Thai investors around (although I am rather surprised they allow you to invest as little Bt5k a month.) I dont actually look much at thaistocks.com but I do think that Paul does his homework and you wont go too far wrong.

I also think your approach is sensible - lets play around with something we can afford to lose rather than recklessly invest everything we have got.

Your comments do however, remind me of my kids, who I each gave a portfolio of GBP60k each at Xmas (they are 12 and 14) and tell me each month 'my portfolio went up/down GBP1500 last month.'

My slightly cynical point is this. I am all for you being long term orientated say Aberdeen/Thaistocks.com but by very definition that should mean that you shouldnt really count your short term daily gains/losses.

You simply have to forget the daily comings and goings. About a month ago I saw on my computer that I had made Bt1.8m profit in one Thai stock in one day. But the reality is that I had made absolutely nothing at all because I didnt sell it (and actually I didnt want to sell it.)

So hand in hand with the fact that you are only investing what you can afford to lose, should also go a realization that you can actually afford to ignore what you have gained.

[humbug]

good for you

in this environment, the small stocks with great year on year profit gains and dividends with low volumes have been the standouts recently, you dont need a million dollars to make a fair few baht trading those kind of stocks, just look at the derivitave warrant of banpu up and down recently by 60% but the volumes are 50k baht a time, look at cwt, doubled recently, volumes around 50k a time, great fundamentals, great profits and great returns on low volumes, far better at the moment that the big cap stocks

i always find for me the decision making process is so individual, and i have realised its so much about the mind and what frame of mind youre in to make those decisions, i try to blank my mind of outside noises of personal things or life things so i can be truely confident of executing a certain decision trading or investing, nobodyelse can teach you that

[khunjake]

Just be sure to set some stops before the markets crash through the floor later this year! Long term could also equal a really long loss..

[Abrak]

Just be sure to set some stops before the markets crash through the floor later this year! Long term could also equal a really long loss..

Ok genius, dont try teach people to suck eggs. On January 6th 1994 the SET reached 1784 well over double where it is now 16 years later. So if there is anyone in this world that knows that long term can equal a really long loss, we already know about it. Say Nasdaq investors, those internet stock investors, whose price peaked 10 years ago, are mere amateurs in the real world of - 'in the long term could also equal long term losses'.

Investors in the SET know in the long term, when things have at least halved over a 16 year period, the future looks bright. That future maybe itself, be long term, but the chances are pretty good.

[ExpatJ]

I have had a positive expereince so far- since starting in January i have come out ahead even with the fall in the SET caused by the red shirt violence- this was largely becuse the dividend payments i got were so high (comapred to US/UK) that they were greater than the fall in share price caused by the recent red troubles.

I would say i am a short term investor- i buy and sell in days/weeks rather than months- using charts to determine the best buying /selling points.

[ray23]

Abrak you are absolutely correct, my real goal was to get someone talking this beyond day trading. I know nothing about stocks so input is really appreciated. But, I know it's not very realistic to expect a business to make a profit in a month. Sure it might make a bit of money, But you will reinvest in more inventory, if you want to increase sales. So that is my approach.

Thaistocks has done well for me. Aberdeen actually you can do that with a little as 5K a month. The 15K I'm using to add to my stock holdings.

Stop losses you bet. I have my limits at how much of a loss I will absorb, before I sell and move on. I check my holding's everyday, from what I'm seeing Thai stocks can move very rapidly in either direction. Being in a learning phase I try to see what has caused that.

What I'm seeing now is that outside factors can effect the Thai market. But, so far they just seem to be knee jerk reactions.

Believe me when I say I really appreciate all you input negative and positive. If you have no background this is a difficult thing to learn, very little resources for a newbie to access.

Comments please. I'm sure there are others out there who really want to learn. But, not much available for them. It took me week in internet search to find Thaistocks. Just did not what to search for.

[fugitiv07]

Dividend yielding stocks, maybe you could do a search on the SET website.

My choice, if I have to go for a dividend yielding stock would be property funds. And the only 2 property funds that have a decent volume would be QHPF and CPNRF. Central after the recent troubles might be a good buy. CPNRF hasnt come down much for some reason. CPNRF historical data on their divident can be found here http://www.settrade.com/S13_FastQuote.jsp?...p;selectPage=7a

I am guessing this time around their divident wouldnt be as much. QHPF, safer option in my opinion.

As for other stocks, blue chips are safer bet rather than going for medium or low cap stocks. If you're too lazy to do your own research there are many equity funds that you can invest in.

[ray23]

All the stocks I hold pay a dividend, you get that information the Thai Stock exchange site. Actually got another notice today. the stock was lagging behind, the dividend alone put it on the positive side

Not really being lazy, rather not knowing how to do proper research is the problem

With no more then I had to start with blue chips were not reachable. The model Portfolio (thaistocks) has done well.

Maybe the day will come to add some of the big guys, but I have a long ways to go.

To be very honest I wasn't expecting to do as well a I have in six weeks or so. To most of you guys this probably old hat, but to me it's like a kid loose in a candy store for the first time.

I want to be completely honest about my experience, so I include the down days as well. Today is not one of those days.

Let me put it this way if I have found a way to do this, anyone can.

Edited June 3, 2010 by ray23

[Abrak]

All the stocks I hold pay a dividend, you get that information the Thai Stock exchange site. Actually got another notice today. the stock was lagging behind, the dividend alone put it on the positive side

Not really being lazy, rather not knowing how to do proper research is the problem

With no more then I had to start with blue chips were not reachable. The model Portfolio (thaistocks) has done well.

Maybe the day will come to add some of the big guys, but I have a long ways to go.

To be very honest I wasn't expecting to do as well a I have in six weeks or so. To most of you guys this probably old hat, but to me it's like a kid loose in a candy store for the first time.

I want to be completely honest about my experience, so I include the down days as well. Today is not one of those days.

Let me put it this way if I have found a way to do this, anyone can.

One of the problems is this.

To some extent, you started investing 6 weeks ago - since then Thailand has been an unmitigated disaster - the market, however didnt move much and 'I', actually didnt lose anything. 'This seems like a very good business/investment.'

The reality is that if say the stockmarket had halved - I have no idea what you would have done - but you would have learnt it was one hel_l of a buying opportunity. (My point being, you would have learnt just as much, maybe more, if you had lost money over the last 6 weeks than by the fact you actually made money.)

So, from a medium to long term investment perspective, you need to understand the 'fundamentals' rather than the 'price' and looking at the 'price' to understand the 'fundamentals' is a fairly useless exercise because the price is subject to so much 'noise'.

If you are a short term trader as one poster admitted understanding price movement is very important but in the long term prices correlate virtually 100% with their underlying fundamentals. And before someone quotes Keynes along the lines that 'prices can remain irrational longer than an investor can remain solvent', I would simply point out that 'as long as you always remain solvent' then that will not be the case. Although, as he also said 'in the long run, we all dead.'

[midas]

Ray,

I was invited by to a dinner by Bualuang Securities the other evening which was hosted by Khun Chaiyaporn Nompitakcharoen.

Khun Chaiyaporn is Vice President of Bualuang Securities Research Group and I was actually impressed by their honesty because they didn’t try to ‘ spin ‘ things ! He advised us that for next 6 months people should be careful about investing in the SET and that things are expected to just go mainly " sideways " for now

but with an increased risk to exposure. He also showed us lots of graphs and charts to support this view.

There was also a very knowledgeable Japanese gentleman on my table who seemed to be a very active trader but even so he said was mindful of an apparent warning made by someone else in the finance world ( didn’t get the chance to ask who ! ) who recently predicted SET could dip down to as low as 550 but I noticed even Khun Chaiyaporn was also well aware of this prediction.

[ray23]

All the stocks I hold pay a dividend, you get that information the Thai Stock exchange site. Actually got another notice today. the stock was lagging behind, the dividend alone put it on the positive side

Not really being lazy, rather not knowing how to do proper research is the problem

With no more then I had to start with blue chips were not reachable. The model Portfolio (thaistocks) has done well.

Maybe the day will come to add some of the big guys, but I have a long ways to go.

To be very honest I wasn't expecting to do as well a I have in six weeks or so. To most of you guys this probably old hat, but to me it's like a kid loose in a candy store for the first time.

I want to be completely honest about my experience, so I include the down days as well. Today is not one of those days.

Let me put it this way if I have found a way to do this, anyone can.

One of the problems is this.

To some extent, you started investing 6 weeks ago - since then Thailand has been an unmitigated disaster - the market, however didnt move much and 'I', actually didnt lose anything. 'This seems like a very good business/investment.'

The reality is that if say the stockmarket had halved - I have no idea what you would have done - but you would have learnt it was one hel_l of a buying opportunity. (My point being, you would have learnt just as much, maybe more, if you had lost money over the last 6 weeks than by the fact you actually made money.)

So, from a medium to long term investment perspective, you need to understand the 'fundamentals' rather than the 'price' and looking at the 'price' to understand the 'fundamentals' is a fairly useless exercise because the price is subject to so much 'noise'.

If you are a short term trader as one poster admitted understanding price movement is very important but in the long term prices correlate virtually 100% with their underlying fundamentals. And before someone quotes Keynes along the lines that 'prices can remain irrational longer than an investor can remain solvent', I would simply point out that 'as long as you always remain solvent' then that will not be the case. Although, as he also said 'in the long run, we all dead.'

Truth is that was what I was expecting, so it really was a pleasant surprise. Your right one does seem to learn more getting knocked down a notch or two. Then just pleasant sailing. I'm sure I will get that lesson somewhere along the line. Another good reason to keep this to no more 15K a month. I want you to know I really appreciate your thoughts helps to keep me grounded. I hear of people borrowing to get in the market that doesn't seem like a good approach to me. I like being debt free for the first time in my life and like to keep it that way.

I will just plug along with my five year plan and see where it goes. I'm hoping in the end I will have enough discipline to stay with the plan. It is very tempting to jump in with both feet. I think that would be a big mistake cause that could hurt me. What I'm doing now can't

I wish I knew the proper methods of research. I don't yet, thank goodness Paul does. The most I can do at this point is to look up the stock on the exchange see what they do, how often they pay dividends. What there track record is. But, that only gives you six months. It does list the asset value and debt ratio.

My understanding is really need to look at a five years history. I have googled the companies but I still have not found a five year history. That really hurts me. I need to find a way to do that.

I do get weekly updates from my Aberdeen account like this one but it is very general

"Week ended 28 May 2010

The government is considering extending tax breaks for residential property to June as well as measures to aid businesses affected by the recent unrest. Nevertheless, exports continue to be strong rising 32% year-on-year in April while advertising expenditure increased 14%. In corporate results, Siam City Cement's net profit increased 2% year-on-year, helped by exports, while Sammakorn's earnings recovered from higher home sales. Central Pattana is postponing renovations at Central Ladprao until 2011 given the damage at CentralWorld. Bangkok Insurance announced minimal losses related to the anti-government protests while Thai Reinsurance reported a limited exposure of 90 million baht. We hold the above stocks."

Edited June 3, 2010 by ray23

[Abrak]

I wish I knew the proper methods of research. I don't yet, thank goodness Paul does. The most I can do at this point is to look up the stock on the exchange see what they do, how often they pay dividends. What there track record is. But, that only gives you six months. It does list the asset value and debt ratio.

To be honest, I dont know much about Paul's investment methods but, I believe they are fairly closely attached to my own (I am somewhat less inclined to his 'NPV of future dividends approach'.) But really, there are very smart guys out there who dont have the same investment philosophy and still do well. Chartists even some day traders. At the end of the day the key to success is understanding your own investment philosophy and sticking with it. Actually 'sticking' to an investment philosophy is as important as the 'investment philosophy' itself.

That is why I have an inherent dislike of 'stop losses'. Prices falling or not performing are often 'telling you something' but it might just be 'noise' to me. The stock that was Bt20 that you sold at Bt10 (because it went down), even if it goes to Bt8, it seems a stupid decision when it is trading at Bt65 a year later. The underlying assumption of stop losses is both an 'inherent lack of understanding of your investment psychological weaknesses' and a reflection that you do not understand that 'sentiment' is far more volatile than 'underlying fundamentals'.

As an investor you are blessed with the fact that most people have an inherent tendency to buy high and sell low. Both 'chartists' who take advantage of that underlying 'sentiment' and 'fundamentalists' who take advantage of that 'illogicality' can make decent returns so long as they stick to their guns.

I dont know who you trade through but most internet brokers have sizable databases that you can understand, examine, filter etc. fundamentals on a 3 to 5 year basis.

That is why I say to you. The fact that you actually made money over the last six weeks is not really a good lesson. If the stockmarket had halved and, so you had lost, and you bought rather than sold, then you would have learnt a lot more. (Or even if you had sold you would have learnt something - namely it wasnt a very good idea.)

[ray23]

I trade through Asiaplus I will have the broker show me how to do that. Paul's philosphy is a mix of mid cap and small cap stocks. That really fits well with my plan. he is not beating the drum about stop losses. he leaves a lot to your own judgement. But does answer direct questions. One that ask him today is if you have a stock performing at 50% profit level. Might be time to think about taking some profits. So what do you do with the profits I'm very close to that now on one stock. Answer be patient don't run to invest it back. Wait a bit and see how things go. The profit will be in the account to make the next purchase that looks good.

I like his approach to sale half and keep the rest in the stock.

I still watch the one I sold, I can always buy back it and chock it up to a lesson learned. I did the research I was able to do on it. It appears to be a solid company does non evasive pressure checking. I had a 20% loss, your right the next day it gained back. I'm sure I will ghe3t a lot more hard lessons before this is over.

Thanks for the input it's appreciated

[Abrak]

I trade through Asiaplus I will have the broker show me how to do that. Paul's philosphy is a mix of mid cap and small cap stocks. That really fits well with my plan. he is not beating the drum about stop losses. he leaves a lot to your own judgement. But does answer direct questions. One that ask him today is if you have a stock performing at 50% profit level. Might be time to think about taking some profits. So what do you do with the profits I'm very close to that now on one stock. Answer be patient don't run to invest it back. Wait a bit and see how things go. The profit will be in the account to make the next purchase that looks good.

I like his approach to sale half and keep the rest in the stock.

I still watch the one I sold, I can always buy back it and chock it up to a lesson learned. I did the research I was able to do on it. It appears to be a solid company does non evasive pressure checking. I had a 20% loss, your right the next day it gained back. I'm sure I will ghe3t a lot more hard lessons before this is over.

Thanks for the input it's appreciated

Actually I dont like the up 50% take profit approach much. (I think even 'chartists' would agree here.)

I only buy things that I believe have at least 100% upside. There is a fair chance that if 'what you believe are the fundamentals' turnout to be the 'fundamentals' then actually that upside will move upwards. So a 'chartist', that you might caught call 'pyschologist' would always go along the lines of 'sell your losers', 'back your winners'. I agree with that to a certain degree.

To the extent I dont like 'stop losses', I dont like 'taking profit' in something you truly believe in just because it has gone up somewhat. Many stocks have gone up 5x - 7x in the past year. Again, the best advice, is to ignore the 'price' in itself and concentrate on the fundamentals. Obviously if the price goes up towards its fundamentals, actually that is a good time to start thinking about 'stop losses' because you need to consider 'momentum' against movement towards 'fundamental value'.

But I have made my most money out of stocks that I have held that have gone up 3x-5x and I have not sold, than those that have gone up a lot and I havent taken profit on (Ok, that is a statement of the obvious.) (And even if it has taken 3 years.)

After a while, an investor gets to know what his winners and losers begin to look like. Look at charts and you will often see 10x from lows to highs. Choosing when to sell is probably more difficult than choosing when to buy. But it is often important to resist the urge to sell when a stock goes up as when one goes down.

Sounds a little bit confusing. One way around this is never hold more than 5 or 6 stocks. Then you will begin to know them intimately. If you hold 15 then be sure you dont really believe in the 15th.

[ray23]

Thanks again Abrak, my conclusion at this point is to stay on plan, basically do nothing, to early to do much of anything.

Take this time to learn to do proper research. I will continue to put my 15K a month in the account. I may or may not buy depends on what my research tells me.

I have a question about asset classes. Thailand export figures are good. So something is being shipped some where. So is shipping a good canidate to look at, I don't hold anything in that class.

actually two questions. When they place a ceiling number in the stock exchange is that based on past best performance or an estimate?

Edited June 4, 2010 by ray23

[Abrak]

Thanks again Abrak, my conclusion at this point is to stay on plan, basically do nothing, to early to do much of anything.

Take this time to learn to do proper research. I will continue to put my 15K a month in the account. I may or may not buy depends on what my research tells me.

I have a question about asset classes. Thailand export figures are good. So something is being shipped some where. So is shipping a good canidate to look at, I don't hold anything in that class.

actually two questions. When they place a ceiling number in the stock exchange is that based on past best performance or an estimate?

Shipping falls into the 'too difficult to analyse' category. Essentially it is a business about maximizing cash flow by minimizing profit (or should be) because you would normally accelerate depreciation so as to save on tax. In Thailand things are a little bit different but you only need to look at Precious Shipping (PSL) to see how difficult analysis is. It is difficult to reconcile all of this.

1) Over the last 5 years assets have doubled and yet the number ships under operation has halved.

2) Profit is Bt3bn while tax is Bt45m

3) Depreciation is between 3 to 25 years per vessel

4) Many costs are capitalized

5) It has 45 subsidiary companies and subsidiary of subsidiary companies with many registered in say 'Mauritius'.

6) They made a profit of Bt640m last year by revising the assumption of the value of their scrap steel on redundant ships from US$150/tonne to US$400/tonne.

Etc, etc, all you can really work out is the company spends more time 'trading ships' than it does 'shipping trade'.

As for the ceiling number, I believe it is just 30% above the previous close. In that if a price rises 30% in any one trading session then transactions are suspended for that trading session. Still, as it has been such a long time since that has happened to me, I cant be sure.

Edited June 4, 2010 by Abrak

[ray23]

Thanks

Went to the broker today to learn a five year search. I have to say Asiaplus in Udon is remarkable, my broker wasn't there. Before it was over I had five different brokers helping, not one earning a dime from me. But, none the less happy to help.

So my first exercise was to see why Paul picked the model portfolio. Got real obvious quickly, all had a steady growth over the past five years, their debt ratios were extremely low. The had excellent cash balances and history of paying more each year in dividends.

Each had back log of orders in the millions or more.

I'll be doing more of this to learn.

[khunjake]

Just be sure to set some stops before the markets crash through the floor later this year! Long term could also equal a really long loss..

Ok genius, dont try teach people to suck eggs.

Investors in the SET know in the long term, when things have at least halved over a 16 year period, the future looks bright. That future maybe itself, be long term, but the chances are pretty good.

The stock markets are nothing but a rigged casino. How do you know the SET won't fall another 50% from here? You don't and hence that is gambling.

"Keep you money in the bank and keep your money, invest your money and invest in a lottery ticket"

[ExpatJ]

Ray- ft.com has data over several years for thai companies- very good tools too for selecting growth and value stocks.

The big question as you and Arak have been discussing is when to sell (or buy)? This is the reason why charting is so useful. I taught myself using this book "the neatest little guide to stock market investing" jason kelly. You can pick it up in asia books- well worth it. Bloomberg.com gives you the three main charting indicators (MACD, relative strength, rate of change) for every thai stock so all you have to do is learn how to interpret them- its surprisingly easy. I have had a good success rate so far using these charts to determine which day to sell or buy- basically the three indicators give you an indication of whether a stock price trending up or down- if all three indicate up , then buy!

Even with the big fall in the SET in the last 3 weeks, i have still come out ahead- partly because i got 180,000 baht in dividend payments from my portfolio in the last 6 weeks (nice to receive these checks in the mail!).

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[ray23]

Wow!!!!!!!!! My account isn't even that big, good for you.

I will try to find the book and learn

[humbug]

Ray,

I was invited by to a dinner by Bualuang Securities the other evening which was hosted by Khun Chaiyaporn Nompitakcharoen.

Khun Chaiyaporn is Vice President of Bualuang Securities Research Group and I was actually impressed by their honesty because they didn't try to ' spin ' things ! He advised us that for next 6 months people should be careful about investing in the SET and that things are expected to just go mainly " sideways " for now

but with an increased risk to exposure. He also showed us lots of graphs and charts to support this view.

There was also a very knowledgeable Japanese gentleman on my table who seemed to be a very active trader but even so he said was mindful of an apparent warning made by someone else in the finance world ( didn't get the chance to ask who ! ) who recently predicted SET could dip down to as low as 550 but I noticed even Khun Chaiyaporn was also well aware of this prediction.

yes i agree with those sentiments, bualuang do think after june could see a downward movement, not to sure about 550, but well thats what predictions are for guesswork.

and i use bualuang, the vice president of new business is fantastic, the one problem i find is that bualuang are not the greatest of payers to their staff and the turnover is high, one of the biggest recruiters of their staff is standard chartered, but the service has been excellent so far, even though i have my 5th account operator in 5 years.

[humbug]

the question about the 30% rule, thats something put in place for forced selling and extreme specualtion, it is also the way many thais when specualting in certain bankrupt stocks or so called fashionable stocks lose a small fortune, as everyone is clammering to the exit doors and then the 30% down has been reached, and you just cant sell as no one is willing to buy even at 30% down then the next trading day they are so many sellers it happens again, its one of the reasons you should always stay away from those kind of stocks

daytrading on the set i also find highly speculative as the hours of the set place it in a vulnerable position in the afternoons when the european markets open, who knows what news might come out and if the set will react and then any gains from the morning might evaporate into losses whereby you might have to wait for a couple of days to then sell at a small gain, so i always stay way from day trading on the set for that reason

[humbug]

i disagree with abraks analysis on shipping when saying there are less ships around, my understanding pre-crisis, many more ships were ordered and now in operation in asia, even though less investment around now, that wasnt the case pre-crisis, so shipping rates are being kept at around 3000 for this reason, tta breaks even at anything over 3000 for the bdi index, and for this reason tta has expanded into resources buying a petoleum distributer in phillipines and a coal mining distributer listed on the set called ums, long term tta for me is the better stock compared to psl, but that again this is what personnel decisions are for, it is such an individual decision making process the stock market that all of us can disagree on many issues and be right or wrong.

the dividend issue, well i think most brokers have dividend tables going back a few years so you can compare increases year on year, see when they usually pay etc, and work out by studying those tables which stocks are on a upward bias for dividends etc

[ray23]

Bualuang is mentioned on Thaistocks I didn't hear complaints Aberdeen sent me to Asiaplus as they are their representative in Udon. So that's what I knew and used They would also let me get started with 15K You know guys my goal was to beat the bank rate of 1/2% for the first year, if things go sideways after June I will meet that goal, down I may not, But I'm not expecting miracles in my first year. Heck six weeks and I have already made one mistake that I know of.

The model Portfolio, so far has performed well. I did notice yesterday that SGP bought a LPG tanker through a subsidiary.

There were rumblings over the EU yesterday. Things seemed to ,move better on the SET after it was announced there would no be a new Government for awhile here. But, me that is guessing in my case.

[ray23]

Ok guys a lot question I ask are meant for learning, doesn't mean I jumping into anything.

The fishing has been stopped in the Gulf of Mexico due to the oil. I know Thai sea food is sold in the states. Is there possibility that it may become a good asset class?

[ray23]

It looks like there are things that may weigh the market down Monday. But I believe it will be outside of Thailand that it comes from. They are offering special tax incentive to get foreign capitol flowing back in. As I understand it a lot of foreign capitol left The SET during the demonstration. They get that back it would seem to me it would be a positive for the SET.

I don't where the growth came from last week. But there was growth.

SCB: Thai economy remains sound despite hiccups

BANGKOK, 4 June 2010 (NNT) – The domestic political unrest and a potential cabinet reshuffle will not create much impact on Thailand’s economy, according to the Siam Commercial Bank Economic Intelligence Center (SCB EIC).

SCB Securities chief economist Sethaput Suthiwart-narueput opined that the prolonged political standoff would only cause mild effects on the overall economic system in Thailand. He reasoned that both the economic structure of the country and the export sector, which was the driving force of the economy, still remained strong and healthy.

Mr Sethaput also foresaw that if the export sector was affected by the political upheaval in a long run, the confidence of both customers and foreign investors would be lowered, and they might shift their investments to other countries.

The economist added that the national gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the second quarter this year would be comparable to the same period of last year. Moreover, he said the GDP for the whole year of 2010 would likely stand at 4.5%-5% as anticipated.

Mr Sethaput believed that the possible cabinet reshuffle would have no adverse effects on Thailand’s economy because many government policies could still be pushed forward.

[ray23]

One of my stocks hit a gain of 87% I took the profits and put them in buy account. The Set dropped to today the MAI gained I'm in both. Still maintaining a profit.

[fugitiv07]

Posted earlier but I'll post again.

TTA, PSL are both dry bulk cargo shipping companies. And very little of their trade is to do with Thailand.

Being bulk cargoes shipping mostly cement, iron ore, coal, soyabeans and other commodities mostly of non corrosive nature. Very few of their ships even come to Thailand. As coal transport (Australia-China) has been a hot route. Soyabeans from South America to US/Europe etc.

Apart from the above TTA and PSL are very different when it comes to strategy.

TTA has diversified into coal business (taking over UMS) and fertilizer business (took over a company in Vietnam) and into oil drilling. And I guess they'll integrate all their business in the long term. TTA likes to fix its ships on a short term basis meaning their average income/fleet is highly volatile. Lately (after the crisis) they have made some amends, but still relatively short as compared to PSL.

PSL likes to fix its ship on a long term basis (even as much as 3-4 years). They've even fixed their newbuilding ships which has yet to join its fleet. The 2 cement carriers meaning they will have a guaranteed stream of revenue coming for them in the future. They have newbuildings which are going to arrive starting Q3 2010. Have ordered about 18. They've said they'll be hunting for 2nd hand ships on discounted rates. Currently they have about 20ish ships. They'd like to go back to about 50. Same story with TTA more or less on the number of ships.

Looking at the volume of shares being traded at PSL and TTA, TTA has a higher volume owing to the fact that most of its shares are in the market. About 50% of PSL shares are in the hands of a few owners, meaning only 50% left to be traded on the stock exchange.

Whether the stock price would go up/down in the future is a hard question. Both companies have strong fundamentals and are making money. Depends on the SET, BDI as well. BDI is not directly related with dry bulk cargo sector as investors normally think. Its the JE Hyde Index which is more closely related, but its a herd mentality.

As for world new buildings, there have been quite a lot of newbuildings that have been delayed and fleet which are above 20 yrs have been scrapped. Read an article a few months back to this sort but dont know the exact figures.