Thai Democrats On Shaky Ground With A Critical Election Looming

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WATCHDOG

Democrats on shaky ground with a critical election looming

By Nophakhun Limsamarnphun

Is national reconciliation, as envisaged by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, just a pipe dream?

BANGKOK: -- Soon after security forces cracked down on anti-government protesters on May 19, the embattled Abhisit government turned to mobilising the entire nation towards the reconciliation path. In fact, the original five-point "roadmap" was announced by the premier on May 5, but the initiative went unheeded until the Army moved in to disperse red-shirt protesters from Bangkok's Rajprasong intersection.

According to the roadmap, there will be efforts to promote political and economic reforms to address social injustice. Secondly, the House of Representatives will be dissolved to pave the way for a general election.

At this stage, it's likely that the next poll will take place around April next year.

In addition, there are calls for upholding the constitutional monarchy as well as setting up an independent body to regulate news and media outlets.

Regarding the deadly clashes between protesters and security forces, there will be an independent body to investigate bombing and shooting incidents that the government has labelled as acts of terrorism.

Yet, the government's image in the eyes of red-shirt supporters is not conducive as far as national reconciliation is concerned, especially in the wake of the May 19 riots and crackdown. In other words, the government became part of the conflict, so its best possible position is to maintain law and order while doing the groundwork to ensure that the next general election will take place smoothly.

In this context, it means the poll will be the real starting point of the reconciliation process, not the other way around.

Another avenue for possible conflict resolution is the establishment of a national government within a framework of the country's largest and second largest parties - the pro-red shirt Pheu Thai Party and the Democrats - jointly forming an interim administration.

While this is easier said than done, there are a number of merits to the idea, given the depth of the political rift as evidenced over the past several years.

First, it should be seen as a political compromise that will be supported by former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who still calls the shots from behind the opposition Pheu Thai, even though the new interim prime minister would not be the one nominated by Thaksin or his party.

Second, it makes sense in a democratic governance system, given that Pheu Thai still has the largest number of MPs in the House, even though the usual opposition camp would be absent during this interim period.

In the meantime, the upcoming July 25 by-election to fill the House seat left vacant by the death of Democratic MP Tiva Ngern-yuang in one of Bangkok's constituencies will be crucial to the ruling Democrat Party as its red-shirt opponent is fighting the campaign from inside a Bangkok prison. Indeed, some Democrats have become increasingly worried by the tactics used by red-shirt leader Korkaew Pikulthong, who is contesting the seat.

While the Democrat Party may bank on its previous strongholds in some of the districts in this constituency, the number of pro-red shirt grass-roots voters is also quite significant, amounting to an estimated one-third of the total eligible voters.

As a result, if there is a large number of swing votes and sympathisers due to the red-shirt candidate's underdog status, the ruling Democrats could be handed a defeat.

-- The Nation 2010-07-17

[Shotime]

I thought you were talking about the US. They just had an earthquake in Washington, D.C.

Sorry

[chainarong]

Shaky ground , that reminds me, Earthquake due sixty klm south west of Mae Sai ,expected size 6.6 , sometime in the future.