Thai Economy Doing Fine In Spite Of Emergency

[webfact]

'Economy doing fine' in spite of emergency

By THE NATION

Democrats say decree needed for law and order; will be revoked gradually

The ruling Democrat Party yesterday defended its three-month-long emergency rule, suggesting the economy had proved to be resilient during this period as it grew 10 per cent in the first half of the year.

In response to calls for an end to the emergency, which has been in effect since April 7 when protesters stormed Parliament, party spokesman Buranat Samutaruk said the government still needed the extra powers provided by the decree to ensure law and order.

The decree also allowed the government to take speedy legal action against wrongdoers while keeping lawful protesters safe.

On the economic front, he said the country had managed to record the second highest growth rate in Asia in the first six months of this year, expanding 10 per cent year-on-year, while the Bank of Thailand's latest forecast showed that GDP would grow 6-7.5 per cent in 2010.

The central bank's projection has been revised up from the previous 4.5-5.5 per cent.

The International Monetary Fund also forecast that Thai GDP would expand by 7 per cent this year.

Emergency rule had been tipped to hit investment and the tourism sector hard, Buranat said, but the latest figures from the Board of Investment showed that a recovery was now underway.

More importantly, the export sector, which is the biggest engine of economic growth, accounting for more than 60 per cent of GDP, had not been affected by the emergency decree.

During the second quarter when violent protests and riots took place, shipments from Thailand continued to grow at a high rate of 42 per cent.

However, the global economic momentum is expected to slow in the second half of this year due to the US economy's weak recovery and the debt crisis in Europe.

Buranat said there was now a consensus among domestic and international economic institutions that the Thai economy had recovered from the 2008-09 global recession so there was no need for further fiscal stimulus measures.

In addition, the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee had raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50 per cent - the first rate hike in nearly two years.

Buranat said the government was preparing to end the emergency law in stages over time to ensure that peace and stability was not disrupted by an abrupt move. Over the past months, the government had been successful in keeping law and order in Bangkok and several provinces, which previously saw political violence and riots.

In addition, it has arrested several key figures suspected of playing prominent roles in the use of weapons and violent acts during the protests and riots in April and May.

Buranat said the Centre for Resolution of the Emergency Situation was now working with the National Security Council to formulate a set of guidelines to end the emergency decree in stages.

-- The Nation 2010-07-25

[Robby nz]

Not surprising really for in spite of all the publisity the riots, rallys, whatever were very localised.

The industries that export and contribute to the economy, other than tourism, continued as usual and continue to do so.

The Mrs's two sisters both work in export industries in an SOE area and neither have been affected at all.

The port and airports continued as usual through the whole thing so there was no reason for goods not to flow in and out of the country.

However there could be a slow down of new industry, investment if investors see an unstable political situation as a risk.

In reality said investors only caome here because of profit so how much they can make will rule the final decision.

[hardy1943]

Not surprising really for in spite of all the publisity the riots, rallys, whatever were very localised.

The industries that export and contribute to the economy, other than tourism, continued as usual and continue to do so.

The Mrs's two sisters both work in export industries in an SOE area and neither have been affected at all.

The port and airports continued as usual through the whole thing so there was no reason for goods not to flow in and out of the country.

However there could be a slow down of new industry, investment if investors see an unstable political situation as a risk.

In reality said investors only caome here because of profit so how much they can make will rule the final decision.

For me it is hard to belief export being in great shape with the SUPER BAHT.One would think

Vietnam would out do them.

[Robby nz]

The Baht hasnt gone up, what has happened is that others like the US$ euro and pound have dived the baht is still the same now as it was against the NZ$ last year.

Just checked because I have to transfer some money soon.

Thailand actually runs at a profit, exports more than it imports, how many other countries can say that?

[jayjay0]

The Baht hasnt gone up, what has happened is that others like the US$ euro and pound have dived the baht is still the same now as it was against the NZ$ last year.

Just checked because I have to transfer some money soon.

Thailand actually runs at a profit, exports more than it imports, how many other countries can say that?

That is a matter of perception the way I read it is the NZ $ is strong. While it is true the baht hasn't gone up it is also true that many of the currencies in the world have gone down compared to Thailand.

I also was wondering why the import business isn't suffering. Perhaps it was long term contracts I don't know.

A friend of mine is a retired CPA he says that Thailand is holding a lot of American money and that helps the baht stay up. I don't know not my field. I just wish it would fall out of sight compared to the Canadian dollar. One day last week the Canadian dollar gained 1.06 cents on the American dollar and lost about .20 on the baht. Those figures are not accurate but for the purpose of this post good enough.

Gives me a headache

[catmac]

Yet another load of codswallop from this Government! I wish people would check the facts from a real source before swallowing the usual Thai "everything is perfect" garbage.

True, GDP rose 4 percent in the first quarter of 2010, but it fell by 4.9 percent in the first quarter of 2009. Likewise in the second quarter a rise of 3.8 percent has to be set against a fall of 1.6 percent in 2009. So compared with 2008, GDP has shown an actual rise of 1.7 percent for the first half of 2010, not a figure to crow about! (Figures from the World Bank, by the way, a little more trustworthy than any Thai Government figures).

But then we have the strange phenomenon of GDP figures being usually expressed in US Dollars, and with the Baht's appreciation against the Dollar, who knows what the reality is! Common sense would suggest that Thailand could hardly have sailed through the disasters (homegrown) of the last 2 years without it having some effect on its economy.

[jayjay0]

Yet another load of codswallop from this Government! I wish people would check the facts from a real source before swallowing the usual Thai "everything is perfect" garbage.

True, GDP rose 4 percent in the first quarter of 2010, but it fell by 4.9 percent in the first quarter of 2009. Likewise in the second quarter a rise of 3.8 percent has to be set against a fall of 1.6 percent in 2009. So compared with 2008, GDP has shown an actual rise of 1.7 percent for the first half of 2010, not a figure to crow about! (Figures from the World Bank, by the way, a little more trustworthy than any Thai Government figures).

But then we have the strange phenomenon of GDP figures being usually expressed in US Dollars, and with the Baht's appreciation against the Dollar, who knows what the reality is! Common sense would suggest that Thailand could hardly have sailed through the disasters (homegrown) of the last 2 years without it having some effect on its economy.

Thank you for the information. As for common sense yes the disasters of the last few years had to hurt. Without them we might have had 3.7% growth instead of 1.7%