Will The Pound Go Higher

[EdWilliams]

I like to use this site for my Baht/GBP info, what do other TV members think??

Obviously put GBP in the box at the top of page!

My link

Like it. I use this for historical trends http://www.reuters.c...ance/currencies

[sarahsbloke]

Todays high was 51.5 bht to 1 UKP

Things are looking up!

I was just offered 505,300bht for 10,000UKP .... waiting for a little bit more, Fridays are usually highs

Now where are all those people saying we will never see 50bht to the pound again ?????

Edited August 2, 2010 by sarahsbloke

[sarahsbloke]

Now at 52.6 .......... getting closer to my prediction of 54!

[chiang mai]

Now at 52.6 .......... getting closer to my prediction of 54!

As far as I can tell most markets watchers are just as surprised about the strength of Sterling as anyone so that doesn't bode well! I hope you make your target of 54 but there's no real reason why GBP should be at its current levels, so I would expect it to either not reach 54 or to reach it and then fall back sharply. My guess is that a combination of current Dollar weakness and an expectation of an impending BOE rate increase (on the back of increased inflation) are to blame, the former will almost certainly change and the latter simply isn't going to happen for a while.

[sarahsbloke]

Now at 52.6 .......... getting closer to my prediction of 54!

As far as I can tell most markets watchers are just as surprised about the strength of Sterling as anyone so that doesn't bode well! I hope you make your target of 54 but there's no real reason why GBP should be at its current levels, so I would expect it to either not reach 54 or to reach it and then fall back sharply. My guess is that a combination of current Dollar weakness and an expectation of an impending BOE rate increase (on the back of increased inflation) are to blame, the former will almost certainly change and the latter simply isn't going to happen for a while.

Well I think you are wrong, my prediction of 54 in 2 months was just that, I have no idea of long term trends, way beyond my levels of expertise.

Could drop to 35, could zoom to 65 .... way too many variables.

When it gets to 54, I'm gonna hit the BUY button.

Anything beyond that and I might as well go and play poker.

[chiang mai]

Now at 52.6 .......... getting closer to my prediction of 54!

As far as I can tell most markets watchers are just as surprised about the strength of Sterling as anyone so that doesn't bode well! I hope you make your target of 54 but there's no real reason why GBP should be at its current levels, so I would expect it to either not reach 54 or to reach it and then fall back sharply. My guess is that a combination of current Dollar weakness and an expectation of an impending BOE rate increase (on the back of increased inflation) are to blame, the former will almost certainly change and the latter simply isn't going to happen for a while.

Well I think you are wrong, my prediction of 54 in 2 months was just that, I have no idea of long term trends, way beyond my levels of expertise.

Could drop to 35, could zoom to 65 .... way too many variables.

When it gets to 54, I'm gonna hit the BUY button.

Anything beyond that and I might as well go and play poker.

Sorry, what is it that you think I'm wrong about?

[sarahsbloke]

I think you are wrong about the falling back, dollar weakness, impending BOE rates.

People who bet on horses make the same mistakes.

[chiang mai]

I think you are wrong about the falling back, dollar weakness, impending BOE rates.

People who bet on horses make the same mistakes.

Oh, OK then!

[stander]

I am betting on 52 by years end, anything more is a bonus

[chiang mai]

I think you are wrong about the falling back, dollar weakness, impending BOE rates.

People who bet on horses make the same mistakes.

Just out of curiosity, you seem pretty certain about this so can you describe why you think GBP/THB will reach 54 and why you think it will not fall back, what is it that is making you so bullish, do you see the Pound as getting much stronger or is it something else?

[Wentworth]

I remember the Pound being about 55 Baht at the end of last year; It had started to rise from the dismal 46 or so. I thought that the rise was due to the markets having a little faith in how the financial measures eg QE were helping in the credit crunch. Suddenly there was a realistic chance of a hung parliament after the expected general election, whereby the government wouldn't be able to give the bad medicine that was needed - Then the Pound nosedived again. Whether it's right or wrong politically, the markets seem to like what the coalition government are doing. I did think the Pound would rise but I get the feeling that it's cautious as the last budget cuts along with government department cuts, due in October, seem to be what the markets like but they are also worried about a possible double-dip recession or very slow growth as a result of the austerity measures.

[sarahsbloke]

Just out of curiosity, you seem pretty certain about this so can you describe why you think GBP/THB will reach 54 and why you think it will not fall back, what is it that is making you so bullish, do you see the Pound as getting much stronger or is it something else?

British government inherently unstable, anything happens pound crash

Thai government inherently unstable, anything happens Baht crash

We are in a brief moment of stability with both governments, this is unlikely to last beyond a couple of months.

My belief is that currency follows foreign perception of confidence in government (justified or not).

Brown useless, and seen by everyone as useless, so pound sank until he went.

Obama useless, and seen by everyone as useless, so dollar will sink until he goes.

I have never said it won't fall back, merely that the future beyond 2 months is unpredictable.

Edited August 3, 2010 by sarahsbloke

[chiang mai]

I remember the Pound being about 55 Baht at the end of last year; It had started to rise from the dismal 46 or so. I thought that the rise was due to the markets having a little faith in how the financial measures eg QE were helping in the credit crunch. Suddenly there was a realistic chance of a hung parliament after the expected general election, whereby the government wouldn't be able to give the bad medicine that was needed - Then the Pound nosedived again. Whether it's right or wrong politically, the markets seem to like what the coalition government are doing. I did think the Pound would rise but I get the feeling that it's cautious as the last budget cuts along with government department cuts, due in October, seem to be what the markets like but they are also worried about a possible double-dip recession or very slow growth as a result of the austerity measures.

Yes, I think all of those things are true, I also think the markets are also keeping an eye open to see whether the coalition could unravel at some point. But I think the major reason for Sterlings rise has more to do with USD's fall and the concern in the US that deflation might take hold, most of the UK banks forex reports are currently showing gbp/usd at 1.45 in January next year so there's a clue there.

[chiang mai]

Just out of curiosity, you seem pretty certain about this so can you describe why you think GBP/THB will reach 54 and why you think it will not fall back, what is it that is making you so bullish, do you see the Pound as getting much stronger or is it something else?

British government inherently unstable, anything happens pound crash

Thai government inherently unstable, anything happens Baht crash

We are in a brief moment of stability with both governments, this is unlikely to last beyond a couple of months.

My belief is that currency follows foreign perception of confidence in government (justified or not).

Brown useless, and seen by everyone as useless, so pound sank until he went.

Obama useless, and seen by everyone as useless, so dollar will sink until he goes.

I have never said it won't fall back, merely that the future beyond 2 months is unpredictable.

I'm OK with those things except the part about currency values being determined by the stability of governments, markets determine currency values based on economics which is why THB hasn't crashed.

[sarahsbloke]

I remember the Pound being about 55 Baht at the end of last year; It had started to rise from the dismal 46 or so. I thought that the rise was due to the markets having a little faith in how the financial measures eg QE were helping in the credit crunch. Suddenly there was a realistic chance of a hung parliament after the expected general election, whereby the government wouldn't be able to give the bad medicine that was needed - Then the Pound nosedived again. Whether it's right or wrong politically, the markets seem to like what the coalition government are doing. I did think the Pound would rise but I get the feeling that it's cautious as the last budget cuts along with government department cuts, due in October, seem to be what the markets like but they are also worried about a possible double-dip recession or very slow growth as a result of the austerity measures.

Yes, I think all of those things are true, I also think the markets are also keeping an eye open to see whether the coalition could unravel at some point. But I think the major reason for Sterlings rise has more to do with USD's fall and the concern in the US that deflation might take hold, most of the UK banks forex reports are currently showing gbp/usd at 1.45 in January next year so there's a clue there.

If the dollar falls to 1.90 to UKP (likely in near future) I will be buying 25k UKPs worth, because it will certainly be back to about 1.40 in a year or 2.

Market traders report in order to force currency changes so they can make money, forex is manipulated to this end.

Economics has little to do with currency values IMHO.

Edited August 3, 2010 by sarahsbloke

[cmsally]

I think 52 will be a high point so around US$1.6

It will need a string of good data to keep it going upwards.

HSBC profits have given it a boost but I don't think the other banks have released their figures yet, these are supposed to be quite good. But as article below mentions, problems ahead.

Guardian

[chiang mai]

I remember the Pound being about 55 Baht at the end of last year; It had started to rise from the dismal 46 or so. I thought that the rise was due to the markets having a little faith in how the financial measures eg QE were helping in the credit crunch. Suddenly there was a realistic chance of a hung parliament after the expected general election, whereby the government wouldn't be able to give the bad medicine that was needed - Then the Pound nosedived again. Whether it's right or wrong politically, the markets seem to like what the coalition government are doing. I did think the Pound would rise but I get the feeling that it's cautious as the last budget cuts along with government department cuts, due in October, seem to be what the markets like but they are also worried about a possible double-dip recession or very slow growth as a result of the austerity measures.

Yes, I think all of those things are true, I also think the markets are also keeping an eye open to see whether the coalition could unravel at some point. But I think the major reason for Sterlings rise has more to do with USD's fall and the concern in the US that deflation might take hold, most of the UK banks forex reports are currently showing gbp/usd at 1.45 in January next year so there's a clue there.

If the dollar falls to 1.90 to UKP (likely in near future) I will be buying 25k UKPs worth, because it will certainly be back to about 1.40 in a year or 2.

Market traders report in order to force currency changes so they can make money, forex is manipulated to this end.

Economics has little to do with currency values IMHO.

I'm pretty sure that's happening currently is the market is building up short positions on GBP and fairly soon, 1.60'ish, the bottom will start to give way and we'll be headed towards 1.40's, I reckon there is zero chance of a repeat of 1.90 or anything even close. If you recall two years ago when we went from 2.10 down to 1.35, everyone and their mother was selling GBP and buying USD - today it seems like it's all about smaller swings but the theme is the same.

[garrfeild]

The GBP is at 1.59+ to the dollar, While I don't think it will go as far as 1.90 I am sure it will test the 1.65 mark. What is happening is that other currencies are going back to where they were in relation to the Dollar before the decline. I don't think it will drop back to 1.40 for the very reason that the Dollar gets sold off when the stock markets improve, which is what is happening now. Plus the USA has not started fiscal tightening yet and don't look like they will for some time. So I think the dollar will be sold off even more within the next few months.

This could mean that we can look forward to 55Baht to the GBP soon! It is at 51+ Baht now.

Just bare in mind that the dollar has to weaken by 3cents to the GBP for the Baht rate to rise by 1 Baht so it would have to be at 1.72 Dollars to the GBP for the Baht to be worth 55 to the GBP, something like that!!!

Edited August 3, 2010 by garrfeild

[thaimate]

The pound does seem to be going up ,i have just braught over a load at 51 to the pound ,any predictions.

[avcomth]

This is excellent for my business as I export cock rings to the UK and the company that buys it insist on me quoting in GBP so it looks like I already made a couple thousands Baht more on the latest shipment.

[IVQII]

I have been using Bangkok bank web site , but I have tried this site and agree it is far better... Thanks a million

I like to use this site for my Baht/GBP info, what do other TV members think??

Obviously put GBP in the box at the top of page!

My link

[chiang mai]

I think you are wrong about the falling back, dollar weakness, impending BOE rates.

People who bet on horses make the same mistakes.

A serious question, are you still planning on waiting for 54 before buying?

[sarahsbloke]

I'm still waiting ...... but it's not looking good at the moment.

[chiang mai]

I'm still waiting ...... but it's not looking good at the moment.

Perhaps I can interest you in my tip for the 2:0 at Chepstow then. (sorry, couldn't resist)

[Eff1n2ret]

The pound dropped every day after Monday last week, probably in the light of bullish forecasts for Thai exports and the Thai economy in general. I can't see any reason for the pound to strengthen much until talk about reducing the UK's huge deficit translates into actual results.

[thaimate]

The pound dropped every day after Monday last week, probably in the light of bullish forecasts for Thai exports and the Thai economy in general. I can't see any reason for the pound to strengthen much until talk about reducing the UK's huge deficit translates into actual results.

Actually it started to drop as soon as Mervyn King opened his mouth and talked down the economy ,he does this every time the poundstarts to rise ,they want it weak.

i wish the guy would fall under a bus.

anyway lucky i changed my money at 50

[Abrak]

Actually it started to drop as soon as Mervyn King opened his mouth and talked down the economy ,he does this every time the poundstarts to rise ,they want it weak.

i wish the guy would fall under a bus.

anyway lucky i changed my money at 50

I must say that I am amazed and confused as to why Germany's exports have responded so well to devaluation and not the UK's. Germany exports a lot to its neighbours who are hardly growing. Its growth has been incredibly impressive recently although we all know it is very competitive. I dont know if anyone has done some analysis on this - maybe other euro countries have stopped subsidizing their exporters or maybe its competitiveness makes its demand elastic because it does not really compete with other euro countries.

The problem though is the divergence of fundamentals. Germany's economy has rising export growth and strengthens the Euro and Greek exports decline, wages decline, CPI increases, GDP declines, the deficits are massive. A single currency based on divergence seems optimistic.

[Abrak]

my prediction it will peak at 54 in the next 2 months

The markets are predicting a rise as confidence in the pound follows the new austerity measures.

Either that, or Thailand can no longer afford to prop up the Baht.

At 4-20pm GMT today it closed @ 50.2 baht to the pound.

Funny that you mention Thailand proping up the baht ,but i was talking to a falang friend who is a buisnessman over here and he mentioned that at a meeting the other day with some Thai money men had said the same thing,

ime no expert but it does seem to my mind that Thailand keeps on about exports going up and up ,but this usually is not the case when your currency is very strong,maybe Thailand is different from other countries?

still the pound under a conservative govt does seem to be improving and the rest of the world seems to like our austerity measures ,rather that those that Obamalama ding dong seems to be promoting.

Look you two - please stop being so stupid and ignorant. Why would Thailand prop up the baht? To make its exports less competitive?. It has spent US$70bn suppressing the value of the baht which is a total scandal I will admit. Meanwhile they have more reserves as a percent of GDP than China and US$50bn of USTs which is a lousy way to spend your surpluses that you economy has generated.

If the baht is overvalued why are forex reserves rising so much and why doesnt the Government spend them on something productive? I find it irritating that BoT has the biggest short position in the baht in the world and spends it surpluses lending US$ to the US. Look at the balance sheet. The real scandal is that the BoT has lost a fortune suppressing the value of the baht 'until' it run out of money and allowed it to appreciate.

[sarahsbloke]

Don't you just love the experts who have "in-depth knowledge" but fail to predict a price in case they are wrong.

I predicted 54, it got to 52, many were saying we would never see 50 again .............

September is usually the best month of the year for UKP/Baht .... I'm still waiting for 54

But will wimp out in the middle of September if it doesn't make my prediction.

Edited August 15, 2010 by sarahsbloke

[chiang mai]

Don't you just love the experts who have "in-depth knowledge" but fail to predict a price in case they are wrong.

I predicted 54, it got to 52, many were saying we would never see 50 again .............

I totally agree, such people have no useful place in these debates, BTW, who are they, name and shame (and quote them) I say.