Will The Pound Go Higher

[thaimate]

the pound has climbed against the baht recently ,any gueses if this is it ? or will it climb a little more .

[sarahsbloke]

my prediction it will peak at 54 in the next 2 months

The markets are predicting a rise as confidence in the pound follows the new austerity measures.

Edited July 27, 2010 by sarahsbloke

[roamer]

Think you should be getting 50B to the £ from the atm by Friday, that's the highest since March, might be a few more baht in it yet methinks

[apetley]

Nice to see the rate headed up but to be honest I can't see it going much higher.

UK interest rates are at an historic low and destined to remain that way for the foreseeable future which will keep the lid on any dramatic rise.

[antony77]

Labour governments always muck up the economy and the pound falls when they are in power.

David Cameron (Elite like Khun Abhisit) is good news for the UK economy and we can expect the pound to rise slowly instead of fall.

[syd barrett]

The pound is exactly 50=Thai baht now.

I expect over the next few months the pound to get upto 1.6 to the US$ which would equate to Thai baht 51.50 anything better than that, forget it.

[sarahsbloke]

The pound is exactly 50=Thai baht now.

I expect over the next few months the pound to get upto 1.6 to the US$ which would equate to Thai baht 51.50 anything better than that, forget it.

Obama is making no effort with the economy, the dollar is dropping, I expect $1.8 to the pound this year, so I stand by my 54 bht prediction.

[yeesipha]

Nice to see the rate headed up but to be honest I can't see it going much higher.

UK interest rates are at an historic low and destined to remain that way for the foreseeable future which will keep the lid on any dramatic rise.

yes,on the news yesterday said the UK interest rate will maybe stay at 0.5% until at least 2014.

[Pib]

Coin flipping is probably as good as opinions when it comes to currency rate projections.

[syd barrett]

The pound is exactly 50=Thai baht now.

I expect over the next few months the pound to get upto 1.6 to the US$ which would equate to Thai baht 51.50 anything better than that, forget it.

Obama is making no effort with the economy, the dollar is dropping, I expect $1.8 to the pound this year, so I stand by my 54 bht prediction.

I hope you are right 1.8 = 1 pound but I can't see it happening unless there is a major USA problem.

[jackinbkk]

Yes :jap:

[ESB7]

60 by year end thats a certainty. Interest rates are not the only defining factor in a currencies strength, although rates in UK will rise this year even if only by .25%, a rate rise has already been called for by members of the setting commitee. Its strange that in June I was blated for saying Sterling would rise and all other posters predicted Sterling to crash at 40.....well some of those same posters are now saying its peaked at 50......,its now showing XE 50.19 so 55 in a few weeks and 60 year end is certain<IMG class=bbc_emoticon alt="" src="http://static.thaivisa.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/dry.gif">

[slim]

The pound is exactly 50=Thai baht now.

I expect over the next few months the pound to get upto 1.6 to the US$ which would equate to Thai baht 51.50 anything better than that, forget it.

Obama is making no effort with the economy, the dollar is dropping, I expect $1.8 to the pound this year, so I stand by my 54 bht prediction.

$1.80 is waaaaaaaaaaaay too optimistic for GBP/USD. Maybe in a year or more. 1.6030 is the 38.2 fibonacci retracement of the 2 year high/low (2.0075/1.35). Thats the first target and I'd expect that over the next 4 to 5 months. After that your looking at the Aug 2009 high of 1.7041. I cant see that before first quarter 2011.

But you never know...............(I'm keeping my fingers crossed)

[aussiebebe]

Hi everyone,

I was going to start a new thread, but this one quite closely matches my questions; maybe someone on here can help/advise. I'm 37, Australian, I teach English in Thailand and recently divorced from my Thai wife. My step-brother, who is 51, is based in England and has offered to lend me money to purchase a condo in Bangkok. At present rates it's 45,000 pounds, but I'll be earning Thai baht, repaying my brother with interest over 10 years (that was his offer) and it's an exchange rate trap - everyone who posted so far has predicted the pound will strengthen, so is borrowing pounds now a bad idea? Should I wait?

I realise this throws up a lot of other questions; I shouldn't be a loser and borrow from my brother, condo's aren't great investments apparently, and they'll be lots of bank transfer charges (I'd transfer annually). However, I've always lived here with my wife in her house and that didn't work out too great either. I realise my brother is being kind and we trust each other; his rationale is that Thai banks won't lend to me, why don't I pay the interest (lower rate) to him, as his savings accounts (ISAs) aren't up to much at present.

I've looked at lots of historical interest rates Baht-Pound tables on the internet, x-rates.com, echange-rates.org etc but you can't predict the future from the past, is there a balance that the rate should be? Obviously I don't want to accept my brother's offer now and have to earn and repay significantly more baht in the future when the Pound strengthens.

Any advice appreciated, as always. If it's a dumb idea just say,...won't be offended.

[antony77]

Hi everyone,

I was going to start a new thread, but this one quite closely matches my questions; maybe someone on here can help/advise. I'm 37, Australian, I teach English in Thailand and recently divorced from my Thai wife. My step-brother, who is 51, is based in England and has offered to lend me money to purchase a condo in Bangkok. At present rates it's 45,000 pounds, but I'll be earning Thai baht, repaying my brother with interest over 10 years (that was his offer) and it's an exchange rate trap - everyone who posted so far has predicted the pound will strengthen, so is borrowing pounds now a bad idea? Should I wait?

I realise this throws up a lot of other questions; I shouldn't be a loser and borrow from my brother, condo's aren't great investments apparently, and they'll be lots of bank transfer charges (I'd transfer annually). However, I've always lived here with my wife in her house and that didn't work out too great either. I realise my brother is being kind and we trust each other; his rationale is that Thai banks won't lend to me, why don't I pay the interest (lower rate) to him, as his savings accounts (ISAs) aren't up to much at present.

I've looked at lots of historical interest rates Baht-Pound tables on the internet, x-rates.com, echange-rates.org etc but you can't predict the future from the past, is there a balance that the rate should be? Obviously I don't want to accept my brother's offer now and have to earn and repay significantly more baht in the future when the Pound strengthens.

Any advice appreciated, as always. If it's a dumb idea just say,...won't be offended.

You must be wary of the pound. I was fully invested in sterling in late 1980's. The pound was devalued by about 30%? I think it went down to about 36 I had a house and two cars on HP in Thailand and I made the payments from UK investment income. So I had to sell both cars at a big loss and arrange a longer period with higher interest for the house.

So beware. The pound has varied between about 36 - 73 baht during the last 20 years or so.

Edited July 28, 2010 by antony77

[Vertigotogo]

I think it will continue to rise

[sarahsbloke]

Hi everyone,

I was going to start a new thread, but this one quite closely matches my questions; maybe someone on here can help/advise. I'm 37, Australian, I teach English in Thailand and recently divorced from my Thai wife. My step-brother, who is 51, is based in England and has offered to lend me money to purchase a condo in Bangkok. At present rates it's 45,000 pounds, but I'll be earning Thai baht, repaying my brother with interest over 10 years (that was his offer) and it's an exchange rate trap - everyone who posted so far has predicted the pound will strengthen, so is borrowing pounds now a bad idea? Should I wait?

I realise this throws up a lot of other questions; I shouldn't be a loser and borrow from my brother, condo's aren't great investments apparently, and they'll be lots of bank transfer charges (I'd transfer annually). However, I've always lived here with my wife in her house and that didn't work out too great either. I realise my brother is being kind and we trust each other; his rationale is that Thai banks won't lend to me, why don't I pay the interest (lower rate) to him, as his savings accounts (ISAs) aren't up to much at present.

I've looked at lots of historical interest rates Baht-Pound tables on the internet, x-rates.com, echange-rates.org etc but you can't predict the future from the past, is there a balance that the rate should be? Obviously I don't want to accept my brother's offer now and have to earn and repay significantly more baht in the future when the Pound strengthens.

Any advice appreciated, as always. If it's a dumb idea just say,...won't be offended.

i

45,000UKP = 2,250,000bht

renting condo 10,000bht a month = 120,000bht year

investing money in Australian bank at 5 percent return = 112,500bht

(a riskier investment stratergy would bring 6-12 percent return)

Savings by buying are very small, then add the cost of all the furnature, then the risk of currency loss or wanting to move and not being able to sell, or losing Visa ......... tell me again why you want to buy the condo?

My personal opinion, only a fool would buy property of any type in Thailand (under existing rules and regulations of course).

Edited July 28, 2010 by sarahsbloke

[ESB7]

Hi everyone,

I was going to start a new thread, but this one quite closely matches my questions; maybe someone on here can help/advise. I'm 37, Australian, I teach English in Thailand and recently divorced from my Thai wife. My step-brother, who is 51, is based in England and has offered to lend me money to purchase a condo in Bangkok. At present rates it's 45,000 pounds, but I'll be earning Thai baht, repaying my brother with interest over 10 years (that was his offer) and it's an exchange rate trap - everyone who posted so far has predicted the pound will strengthen, so is borrowing pounds now a bad idea? Should I wait?

I realise this throws up a lot of other questions; I shouldn't be a loser and borrow from my brother, condo's aren't great investments apparently, and they'll be lots of bank transfer charges (I'd transfer annually). However, I've always lived here with my wife in her house and that didn't work out too great either. I realise my brother is being kind and we trust each other; his rationale is that Thai banks won't lend to me, why don't I pay the interest (lower rate) to him, as his savings accounts (ISAs) aren't up to much at present.

I've looked at lots of historical interest rates Baht-Pound tables on the internet, x-rates.com, echange-rates.org etc but you can't predict the future from the past, is there a balance that the rate should be? Obviously I don't want to accept my brother's offer now and have to earn and repay significantly more baht in the future when the Pound strengthens.

Any advice appreciated, as always. If it's a dumb idea just say,...won't be offended.

You must be wary of the pound. I was fully invested in sterling in late 1980's. The pound was devalued by about 30%? I think it went down to about 36 I had a house and two cars on HP in Thailand and I made the payments from UK investment income. So I had to sell both cars at a big loss and arrange a longer period with higher interest for the house.

So beware. The pound has varied between about 36 - 73 baht during the last 20 years or so.

And the Euro has gone from 50-38 in less than a year and the $42-25 and Aus 21-30 over a 20 year period....so whats so special about Sterling. Sterling is the only real hard currency worth having, forget $, Yen etc....as Yazz once sung "The only way is up" at least for the next 18 months anyway. XE at 50.35

[billd766]

Coin flipping is probably as good as opinions when it comes to currency rate projections.

I found a more accurate way is to go to KFC, get some chicken bones and write all the numbers that you think it will be and then throw them into the aid and catch just one.

10 chicken bones give a better spread than a coin with only 2 sides.

[aussiebebe]

Thanks for the input all of you, particularly the historical perspectives; 'anthony77' and 'sarahsbloke' - I'll heed your warnings, actually your replies mirrored many of my inital concerns regarding the fluctuations, and instability of having investments in Thailand.

I've read this forum quite a bit and I realise that many other members have experience of baht-pound flutuations, whereas I haven't, and this is probably one of the best places on the web to find out.

Thanks again all of you.

[Vertigotogo]

Hi everyone,

I was going to start a new thread, but this one quite closely matches my questions; maybe someone on here can help/advise. I'm 37, Australian, I teach English in Thailand and recently divorced from my Thai wife. My step-brother, who is 51, is based in England and has offered to lend me money to purchase a condo in Bangkok. At present rates it's 45,000 pounds, but I'll be earning Thai baht, repaying my brother with interest over 10 years (that was his offer) and it's an exchange rate trap - everyone who posted so far has predicted the pound will strengthen, so is borrowing pounds now a bad idea? Should I wait?

I realise this throws up a lot of other questions; I shouldn't be a loser and borrow from my brother, condo's aren't great investments apparently, and they'll be lots of bank transfer charges (I'd transfer annually). However, I've always lived here with my wife in her house and that didn't work out too great either. I realise my brother is being kind and we trust each other; his rationale is that Thai banks won't lend to me, why don't I pay the interest (lower rate) to him, as his savings accounts (ISAs) aren't up to much at present.

I've looked at lots of historical interest rates Baht-Pound tables on the internet, x-rates.com, echange-rates.org etc but you can't predict the future from the past, is there a balance that the rate should be? Obviously I don't want to accept my brother's offer now and have to earn and repay significantly more baht in the future when the Pound strengthens.

Any advice appreciated, as always. If it's a dumb idea just say,...won't be offended.

i

45,000UKP = 2,250,000bht

renting condo 10,000bht a month = 120,000bht year

investing money in Australian bank at 5 percent return = 112,500bht

(a riskier investment stratergy would bring 6-12 percent return)

Savings by buying are very small, then add the cost of all the furnature, then the risk of currency loss or wanting to move and not being able to sell, or losing Visa ......... tell me again why you want to buy the condo?

My personal opinion, only a fool would buy property of any type in Thailand (under existing rules and regulations of course).

well put sarahsbloke

[MAJIC]

my prediction it will peak at 54 in the next 2 months

The markets are predicting a rise as confidence in the pound follows the new austerity measures.

Either that, or Thailand can no longer afford to prop up the Baht.

At 4-20pm GMT today it closed @ 50.2 baht to the pound.

Edited July 28, 2010 by MAJIC

[thaimate]

my prediction it will peak at 54 in the next 2 months

The markets are predicting a rise as confidence in the pound follows the new austerity measures.

Either that, or Thailand can no longer afford to prop up the Baht.

At 4-20pm GMT today it closed @ 50.2 baht to the pound.

Funny that you mention Thailand proping up the baht ,but i was talking to a falang friend who is a buisnessman over here and he mentioned that at a meeting the other day with some Thai money men had said the same thing,

ime no expert but it does seem to my mind that Thailand keeps on about exports going up and up ,but this usually is not the case when your currency is very strong,maybe Thailand is different from other countries?

still the pound under a conservative govt does seem to be improving and the rest of the world seems to like our austerity measures ,rather that those that Obamalama ding dong seems to be promoting.

[chiang mai]

Anyone waiting for UK rates to rise this year will indeed have a long wait, it simply wont happen - if you can get Baht 50 per Pound, take I say because it wont get much better, 55 is a pipe dream and 60 a wet one!

[phutoie2]

I like to use this site for my Baht/GBP info, what do other TV members think??

Obviously put GBP in the box at the top of page!

My link

[Eff1n2ret]

Anyone waiting for UK rates to rise this year will indeed have a long wait, it simply wont happen - if you can get Baht 50 per Pound, take I say because it wont get much better, 55 is a pipe dream and 60 a wet one!

I agree. The new UK government has accrued some credibility with its proposals for fixing the huge deficit, and the pound has perked up a bit on the strength of that, but most of the public haven't had the pain yet of higher taxes and more job losses, so whether they make the proposals stick and the coalition survives very long is another matter. Once the coalition starts looking shaky, uncertainty will be back in the markets and the poor old pound will be on its way back down again.

UKForex were quoting just now 50.1baht/£ for a £3000 transfer (their minimum for a foc transfer). I'm taking that.

[chiang mai]

Shakiness of the coalition is one aspect and UK politics being what it is, no doubt the coaltion will unravel at some point, hopefully later than sooner because I think they are doing some good things at present. But I don't think the UK population in general really understands the degree of pain that it has yet to endure, there's almost a sense that the worst part is over and now it's just a long slog to get back to the norm - it may take another twelve months or longer before the effect of job losses, lowered standards of living and falling houses prices hit home but hit home they surely will, factor in the credit lending and banking aspects and the UK/Pound is in for a rough ride for a while, sadly.

[12DrinkMore]

Either that, or Thailand can no longer afford to prop up the Baht.

On the contrary, there is no "propping" up of the THB, for over a year the BoT has been subduing the THB by buying forex reserves. And according to this

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/387368-foreign-capital-begins-to-flow-into-thailand-says-bot/

there is going to be even more upward pressure on the THB. The BoT also raised the interest rates this month, which will also tend to push up the THB.

[AnnyLing]

Either that, or Thailand can no longer afford to prop up the Baht.

On the contrary, there is no "propping" up of the THB, for over a year the BoT has been subduing the THB by buying forex reserves. And according to this

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/387368-foreign-capital-begins-to-flow-into-thailand-says-bot/

there is going to be even more upward pressure on the THB. The BoT also raised the interest rates this month, which will also tend to push up the THB.

Why spoil a nice dream with ugly facts ?

[chiang mai]

Either that, or Thailand can no longer afford to prop up the Baht.

On the contrary, there is no "propping" up of the THB, for over a year the BoT has been subduing the THB by buying forex reserves. And according to this

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/387368-foreign-capital-begins-to-flow-into-thailand-says-bot/

there is going to be even more upward pressure on the THB. The BoT also raised the interest rates this month, which will also tend to push up the THB.

Why spoil a nice dream with ugly facts ?

Very good, but the message is not likely to be heard by those who need to hear it most.