Is There An Exodus Of People More Than Businesses?

[noise]

Didn't read everything, so if repeating advice, sorry....plus off subject as to whether or not expat population is decreasing.

If the OP's condo owning friend really needs to sell then maybe he should do his math to set the price differently. If he bought in pounds and the pound has fallen, then he should calculate at today's exchange rate what his breakeven point would be after changing baht back to pound. Then decide how to price his condo....

If he bought at 60/1 for 1M, then he paid 17,000. If the rate today is 40, then selling at 680K would let him break even when he changes the baht back to pounds and leaves the country. Or if he keeps the baht, staying here, rather than bringing in more pounds at the lower rate.

[Ta22]

when you stop playing the money game . you see thing more clear and worry less.

[sarahsbloke]

Here is a little heads up from someone having worked for many years in the financial services industry and who stays updated on what's really happening.

Right now, the entire world is in a major transition and things are happening and will continue to happen for the foreseeable future at warp speed.

The bad news is what we are seeing with downward currency fluctuations in the US dollar (add the UK pound)is not a temporary anomaly. It is going to get a lot worse from where we are at. If anyone is depending on their US dollar assets or income in order to be able to live in Thailand, you could be in for a rude awakening and sooner than you think.

While deflation has been in the news as the current concern, what I see is the sounding of the alarm that the US is nearing a point where it can soon become a victim of hyperinflation. If this does happen the US dollar will collapse and with that, soon lose all value. Not 10, 20 or 30% drop from where it is at now. It loses all value and goes to zero - period.

That would mean anyone depending on and receiving US dollars every month via pension, social security or whatever will not have enough funds to live on. You would be better off to have a small Thai business that clears a little profit each month. Either that or have funds in currencies other than dollars/UK pounds or buy gold.

Of course, this is not a 100% prediction but it is high enough in my opinion to be of concern. Even without hyperinflation, the US dollar will continue to decline and I would not be surprised to see it at 25 baht per dollar or even 20 baht per dollar within the next year. And no - I am not wishing it at all as US dollars are what I get paid.

So is there and will there be an exodus from Thailand? Who knows, but in comparison I think things are going to get much worse in the US and UK. In any event, I would rather wait out the storm in the LOS. The fact there is definitely a major storm brewing shouldn't be in question. Just how big and how bad it will be is anyone's guess.

This post is just daft, the USA would start a world war (at any excuse) rather than let this happen.

If the end of the world were to come nobody would care about the exchange rate.

[Ulysses G.]

This post is just daft

I hope that you are right.

[mamborobert]

Here is a little heads up from someone having worked for many years in the financial services industry and who stays updated on what's really happening.

Right now, the entire world is in a major transition and things are happening and will continue to happen for the foreseeable future at warp speed.

The bad news is what we are seeing with downward currency fluctuations in the US dollar (add the UK pound)is not a temporary anomaly. It is going to get a lot worse from where we are at. If anyone is depending on their US dollar assets or income in order to be able to live in Thailand, you could be in for a rude awakening and sooner than you think.

While deflation has been in the news as the current concern, what I see is the sounding of the alarm that the US is nearing a point where it can soon become a victim of hyperinflation. If this does happen the US dollar will collapse and with that, soon lose all value. Not 10, 20 or 30% drop from where it is at now. It loses all value and goes to zero - period.

That would mean anyone depending on and receiving US dollars every month via pension, social security or whatever will not have enough funds to live on. You would be better off to have a small Thai business that clears a little profit each month. Either that or have funds in currencies other than dollars/UK pounds or buy gold.

Of course, this is not a 100% prediction but it is high enough in my opinion to be of concern. Even without hyperinflation, the US dollar will continue to decline and I would not be surprised to see it at 25 baht per dollar or even 20 baht per dollar within the next year. And no - I am not wishing it at all as US dollars are what I get paid.

So is there and will there be an exodus from Thailand? Who knows, but in comparison I think things are going to get much worse in the US and UK. In any event, I would rather wait out the storm in the LOS. The fact there is definitely a major storm brewing shouldn't be in question. Just how big and how bad it will be is anyone's guess.

This post is just daft, the USA would start a world war (at any excuse) rather than let this happen.

If the end of the world were to come nobody would care about the exchange rate.

The idea that a war solves hyperinflation is the daft one. Did'nt work to well for the Weimar Republic for example

The underlying premise that the Uk and USA have not bottomed out yet, and make take years to even semi recover is more than sound.

The USD going to 20 baht is bad but tragically not inconceivable.....I bet no one thought the pound would drop 40% either. The USD has gone down 6% against the AUD in September alone, and Thailand as an export economy is nearly as well placed as Oz (hence the THB/AUD rate has not change much). The USD has gone from 40 to 30 baht in the last five years (25% drop) and is now less than one baht below when the GFC arose....with worse to come.

For years the dream for the AUD was to reach parity with the USD. Historically over 25 years its averaged mid 70's...its now at 96, expected to hit parity in early next year....and economists are now predicting an inconceivable 110 to the 100 USD by the end of 2011.

The truest statement is no ones knows how big and bad the storm will be...but there is general agreement that there is a storm coming (not just the bad weather of the last two years).

[uncletom]

uncletom

Have you got any facts to back your statements up. From what I read you very seldom go where you would see droves of expats on a daily base. Also how do you know the ones you do see aren't moving here from another part of Thailand?

Hi jayjay0

Facts would need to be definitely presented by the Immigration. They could do this by checking the border runners to Mai Sai or Tak and then through the 90 day checker inner's, being the ones who keep checking in subtracting the ones who stop..

And actually yes, I do see droves of foreigners which I can make develop a statement from. The areas of the moat and near surrounding areas actually are not the long timer foreigner zones. The outlying areas are. Now going back to who I see; many foreigners are the same ones time after time being more than twice + in an extended period of time and climbing, and then some are one’s I had just seen one time but then again after some time, and then the others for the first time and I wait to see them again or will not ever again, but usually if I pin them correctly, I will see them again.

Basically I look at peoples attire and how they act in the surroundings to figure them out and their status here, as in travelers or true stayers, and from doing this, I can bet that my deduction of their status is more than likely usually right on the money. Now back packers are the easy call as well as the Middle Eastern families recently visiting on vacation (and there were so many of them), and even some of the Hooligan’s visiting with some more exceptions of people easy to tell.

Lots of new and established families (white and mixed), lots of new and established white couple retiree’s (old folks), as well as it seems a lot of missionaries and teachers.

You see, we are almost daily repeated shopping offenders at all the stores in Chiang Mai whether it be all of the TOPS, 2 Rimping's (last night was at Nawarat Bridge’s), both Big C's, both big Tesco's and some mini's, Carrefour and even the Makro. We are avid shoppers who enjoy looking for different bargains and new products, or just getting milk for the kids or something we have a craving to cook and eat..

In one day on search mode I can get to maybe 2 different ones in one day. In one week, I will normally visit a store 4 times and this excludes just going out and seeing anywhere around Chiang Mai as well as excludes going and doing something at one of the Malls in town.

OK, I will actually go farther to say that there are 2 reasons we go to all of the stores, one, we enjoy it as an outing and the change up of scenery is better, and two, it is in my interests to keep a watch on retail products, especially Seafood, Baby food, and Frozen meals, and consequently this is also how I know what is new, Grade A, not Grade A, sells good or doesn’t sell.

On the other hand, I do my 90 reporting as well as the next person, and that day is probably never on the prescribed day given, thus giving me a perspective of the influx new and old on not the same exact next 90 days. There is never a time that I go to the immigration and do not recognize at least 4 people, but there are lots, oodles I do not, and this seems to be more and more increasingly. Who I see I am not saying are friends or acquaintances because I am not a Socialite, sometimes someone I know, but normally people I recognize and them I if they are attentive.

I also look at what they are doing at immigration in order to get an opinion of what they are doing, their status and to figure out the time I will spend on that particular occasion.

I did say in my last writing last night that it was of my opinion, one man’s opinion, as so I will re-iterate this again today.

Up to your own, all speculation of course without true documentation..

And about the poster who said the $ may plummet, yes possibly, and to the poster who said the US would not let it go that far to near non existence, I agree it has been that way in the past that World War’s can tend to boost or actually kill one’s economy, so what you brought up is possible, but I think that the US $ will not be let to fall to flat zero because too much still depends on it around the world. Gotta see what happens, but no telling.

uncletom

[orang37]

... snip ... Best bet if you want to avoid Blighty is a Pinoy Welder....we need these guys.....and having seen some girls from Manchester in sub zero temperatures a few years ago I can understand that why people explore other sides of their sexuality in order to escape them for Oz:)

Sawasdee Khrup, Khun MamboRobert,

We are gobsmacked by this mysterious conjunction of Pinoy Welders (males you imply), avoiding "Blighty" (eyes damaged from looking directly at arc welding?), your seeing girls in Manchester in sub-zero weather, and the implication that people engage in gender-exploration of "other sides" in order to "escape them for Oz."

Are you speaking of Pinoy lesbians cross-dressing as men illegally trafficked into Manchester to work as welders who you have been kidnapped by, with your refusal to undergo ritual castration thus preventing your escape back to Oz ?

Please enlighten us so we can further understand the sub-texts in this obviously complex post-modern series of nested metaphors

best, ~o:37;

Edited October 3, 2010 by orang37

[Gonzo the Face]

.. sez uncle tom:

"Now going back to who I see; many foreigners are the same ones time after time being more than twice + in an extended period of time and climbing, and then some are ones I had just seen one time but then again after some time, and then the others for the first time and I wait to see them again or will not ever again, but usually if I pin them correctly, I will see them again.

Basically I look at peoples attire and how they act in the surroundings to figure them out and their status here, as in travelers or true stayers"

....Reads like you have been in the cabin too long Uncle Tom.

But your opinion carries as much weight as the next man's, so good on ya

:jap:

Edited October 3, 2010 by Gonzo the Face

[uncletom]

Just a generalized controlled poll, but this may help add to Influx instead of Exodus.

Bangkok has been voted the world's best city, followed by Chiang Mai, in the magazine Travel + Leisure's 2010 World's Best Awards readers survey.

Saying that Thailand has the 2 best cities #1 and #2 in the world is quite something. Also the Bangkok Mayor went to New York to receive the award which also probalby had a news paper article or two writtien about him going, thus building more popularity and consensus that Thailand, BKK & Chiang Mai, have something special going on. After peoples initial visit, this will be where the yes I want to be there or no will come from, and generally probably a yes having more people actually make the change to stay. Again, just one man's opinion.

Pinoy Welders...Very odd to say the least. Yes please do speak more clearly so I don't have to decipher or sepculate the true meaning of the post. Trafficking??? or Exploitation??? Jumping ship???

uncletom

[uncletom]

.. sez uncle tom:

"Now going back to who I see; many foreigners are the same ones time after time being more than twice + in an extended period of time and climbing, and then some are one’s I had just seen one time but then again after some time, and then the others for the first time and I wait to see them again or will not ever again, but usually if I pin them correctly, I will see them again.

Basically I look at peoples attire and how they act in the surroundings to figure them out and their status here, as in travelers or true stayers"

....Reads like you have been in the cabin too long Uncle Tom.

But your opinion carries as much weight as the next man's, so good on ya

:jap:

'Gonzo the Face'

No have not been in the cabin too long, unless you refer to flying in airplanes too much recently, but had a really bad tooth extracted late yesterday and have a lot of abnormal time on my hands at the moment with up and down pain and playing kids surrounding me. Just trying to state how I arrive at my conclusions for; "to be exodus or not to be exodus, that is the question!".

Yes and thanks, all peoples opinions carry the same weight until proven right or wrong. Thanks for being in the neutral for the most.

SINGING OFF, WIFE CALLING ME TO SLURP MY SOUP LUNCH DOWN USING A TINY SPOON.

uncletom

[DiamondKing]

In my circle of friends, several are heading back home or going back to work simply because they have run out, or are running out or cant live on what money they are receiving each month.

There is in my eyes anyway a large exodus of people leaving and going back to work.

DK

[Ricardo]

Anyway, getting back on topic, I struggle to find anything bad about a bunch of deadbeats leaving? Great! IF it was true, which I don't believe it is. I mean if you can't afford up-country Thailand anymore, then really where can you go..

I hear the North pole is quite nice at this time of year, all the ice-water you can drink, but work-opportunities are very seasonal indeed !

[mrmillersr]

Here is a little heads up from someone having worked for many years in the financial services industry and who stays updated on what's really happening.

Right now, the entire world is in a major transition and things are happening and will continue to happen for the foreseeable future at warp speed.

The bad news is what we are seeing with downward currency fluctuations in the US dollar (add the UK pound)is not a temporary anomaly. It is going to get a lot worse from where we are at. If anyone is depending on their US dollar assets or income in order to be able to live in Thailand, you could be in for a rude awakening and sooner than you think.

While deflation has been in the news as the current concern, what I see is the sounding of the alarm that the US is nearing a point where it can soon become a victim of hyperinflation. If this does happen the US dollar will collapse and with that, soon lose all value. Not 10, 20 or 30% drop from where it is at now. It loses all value and goes to zero - period.

That would mean anyone depending on and receiving US dollars every month via pension, social security or whatever will not have enough funds to live on. You would be better off to have a small Thai business that clears a little profit each month. Either that or have funds in currencies other than dollars/UK pounds or buy gold.

Of course, this is not a 100% prediction but it is high enough in my opinion to be of concern. Even without hyperinflation, the US dollar will continue to decline and I would not be surprised to see it at 25 baht per dollar or even 20 baht per dollar within the next year. And no - I am not wishing it at all as US dollars are what I get paid.

So is there and will there be an exodus from Thailand? Who knows, but in comparison I think things are going to get much worse in the US and UK. In any event, I would rather wait out the storm in the LOS. The fact there is definitely a major storm brewing shouldn't be in question. Just how big and how bad it will be is anyone's guess.

This post is just daft, the USA would start a world war (at any excuse) rather than let this happen.

If the end of the world were to come nobody would care about the exchange rate.

So that's how the US resolves it's irreparable financial problems. It just needs to start World War III. And you're calling my post daft?

Like the overwhelming majority, you obviously don't follow current events or know the present state of the world economies and financials. I do.

That being said, hopefully some of you will have the common sense, knowledge and wherewithal to prepare for what is headed our way. And it's coming a lot sooner than later.

[Nuff Said]

In my circle of friends, several are heading back home or going back to work simply because they have run out, or are running out or cant live on what money they are receiving each month.

There is in my eyes anyway a large exodus of people leaving and going back to work.

DK

I have no doubt that what you say is true. I too am packing my bags, but the traffic is not all one way.

I left Chiang Mai early last year for pastures new, but, despite the poor exchange rate, am returning in just four weeks time. I will have a little less cash each month than last time, but can, and will if neccessary, forgo such luxuries as UBC. Nice to have, but not essential. Will make do with WETV, shop around for the best internet deals etc, and 'discretional spending' will mean just that. Fortunately I never sold my condo, so rental costs aren't an issue.

Its the businesses such as bars and restaurants that rely heavily on 'discrectional spending' that have suffered, simply because people need to buy food and pay their utility bills, but don't have to eat or drink out. I think this explains why so many of these establishments are either up for sale or have failed compltetly.

Edited October 3, 2010 by Nuff Said

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Anyway, getting back on topic, I struggle to find anything bad about a bunch of deadbeats leaving? Great! IF it was true, which I don't believe it is. I mean if you can't afford up-country Thailand anymore, then really where can you go..

Just because someone finds themselves in an awkward financial situation because of the strenghth of their currency hardly qualifies them as "Deadbeats" does it?

It's not thier fault!

Not saying it's their fault. Not even saying there is a problem. I remember when a dollar was 25 baht. Some people came on the high of the currency crisis with crazy exchange rates, and are now learning about some economic realities. That in itself is neither good not bad, it's just what it is.

Just it would be better if they don't whine about it, or if they must whine, then it should be directed at either their country's economic situation or their own financial miscalculations. Most of the time though, the whinging takes the shape of a rant against Thailand for unclear reasons. A kind of condescending neo-colonialist attitude that I find very unappealing and misplaced.

Edited October 3, 2010 by WinnieTheKhwai

[Ulysses G.]

Just it would be better if they don't whine about it, or if they must whine, then it should be directed at either their country's economic situation or their own financial miscalculations. Most of the time though, the whinging takes the shape of a rant against Thailand for unclear reasons.

I do not agree with the deadbeat thing, but I do agree with this.

[CMX]

"...the USA would start a world war (at any excuse) rather than let this happen."

Two optimistic notes:

1) The above conditional forecast will not come to pass for 52 months, possibly four years beyond that. Also, T. Blair no longer works in his old office.

2) I trust that everyone has noted that although we have yet to develop facts about departures, we do know that the really important people are here. Ahem. (I trust we know who we are by the certitude of our assertions.)

Edited October 3, 2010 by CMX

[MAJIC]

Leaving aside the whole issue of what's a person with a million baht in net-worth doing living in Thailand (or any foreign country) to begin with, I'm sure there are many in similar situations. We see it in Pattaya as well. However, they are certainly not going to have much of a warm welcome back in Blighty if they plan to return there. The economy pretty much sucks in most of Europe (ex-Germany and the Scandinavian countries), with 25-40 percent cuts in public sector employment rolls and reductions in "benefits" to boot.

Sounds like to me that many folks didn't do their planning too well or partied too hardy during their abbreviated stays in the LOS. Maybe best to head on over to Rooland as I read that blokes fresh out of high-school can make AU$ 100k per year working in the mining industry. [Tip to get there: Go to Philippines for 6 mos. and find a Filipina nursing graduate to marry and then apply for skilled migration visa to Aus. and piggy-back in as her husband.]

The Pinay nurse route won't work as they cannot get registration without doing a conversion course (hence most go to Oz via UK hospitals). Best bet if you want to avoid Blighty is a Pinoy Welder....we need these guys.....and having seen some girls from Manchester in sub zero temperatures a few years ago I can understand that why people explore other sides of their sexuality in order to escape them for Oz

I do take your point that you should not be here without the dollars...but a 40% drop would ruin a lot of peoples plans.......

Whats a "Pinoy Welder"if you dont mind me asking?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pinoy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welder

You're welcome.

Thanks for that,but didn't need to look at the Welder link.

[DavidOxon]

I don't know anyone who's going back to their home country.

Most places won't let your family come with you if you don't have a job/income too!

D

[Ricardo]

<snip for brevity>

Its the businesses such as bars and restaurants that rely heavily on 'discrectional spending' that have suffered, simply because people need to buy food and pay their utility bills, but don't have to eat or drink out. I think this explains why so many of these establishments are either up for sale or have failed compltetly.

I think Nuff Said has put his finger on it, with this comment, certain living-costs must be paid, but eating-out or travelling for holidays or (gulp) 2nd-hand-books & drinking-out are discretionary, and Family-Ricardo has most-definitely made cost-savings in these areas.

One cuts one's cloth according to one's means. So those slightly-ageing T-shirts & shorts will also do a couple more years !

[uptheos]

In my circle of friends, several are heading back home or going back to work simply because they have run out, or are running out or cant live on what money they are receiving each month.

There is in my eyes anyway a large exodus of people leaving and going back to work.

DK

I have no doubt that what you say is true. I too am packing my bags, but the traffic is not all one way.

I left Chiang Mai early last year for pastures new, but, despite the poor exchange rate, am returning in just four weeks time. I will have a little less cash each month than last time, but can, and will if neccessary, forgo such luxuries as UBC. Nice to have, but not essential. Will make do with WETV, shop around for the best internet deals etc, and 'discretional spending' will mean just that. Fortunately I never sold my condo, so rental costs aren't an issue.

Its the businesses such as bars and restaurants that rely heavily on 'discrectional spending' that have suffered, simply because people need to buy food and pay their utility bills, but don't have to eat or drink out. I think this explains why so many of these establishments are either up for sale or have failed compltetly.

Bars and restaurants had it good when the exchange rates were high.

Now there's such a drop in rates, a lot of people are hurting and as you quite rightly said a lot of people now rely on 'discretionary spending', so you'd think these bars and restaurants would be decreasing their prices accordingly to help out their fellow ex-pats, who propped them up during the good times..... but instead choose to throw insults at those who dare suggest the very thought.

[Nuff Said]

In my circle of friends, several are heading back home or going back to work simply because they have run out, or are running out or cant live on what money they are receiving each month.

There is in my eyes anyway a large exodus of people leaving and going back to work.

DK

I have no doubt that what you say is true. I too am packing my bags, but the traffic is not all one way.

I left Chiang Mai early last year for pastures new, but, despite the poor exchange rate, am returning in just four weeks time. I will have a little less cash each month than last time, but can, and will if neccessary, forgo such luxuries as UBC. Nice to have, but not essential. Will make do with WETV, shop around for the best internet deals etc, and 'discretional spending' will mean just that. Fortunately I never sold my condo, so rental costs aren't an issue.

Its the businesses such as bars and restaurants that rely heavily on 'discrectional spending' that have suffered, simply because people need to buy food and pay their utility bills, but don't have to eat or drink out. I think this explains why so many of these establishments are either up for sale or have failed compltetly.

Bars and restaurants had it good when the exchange rates were high.

Now there's such a drop in rates, a lot of people are hurting and as you quite rightly said a lot of people now rely on 'discretionary spending', so you'd think these bars and restaurants would be decreasing their prices accordingly to help out their fellow ex-pats, who propped them up during the good times..... but instead choose to throw insults at those who dare suggest the very thought.

Businesses, large or small, must take the good with the bad, and,as you quite rightly point out, the bars and retaurants had it good for many years while the Baht was weak. But, regardless of whether they are Thai or foreign owned, such businesses are not immuned from the effects of the exchange rate now that the boot is on the other foot. If the going gets tough for high street stores they set about turning things sround with offers, sales and promotions. If bars and restaurants don't do the same thing, albeit on a smaller scale, they don't deserve to stay in business.

What's better, an empty or near deserted establishment that charges high prices, or one where the owner has cut his margins to get the punters in, and makes passers by think 'that place is full, must be good, must check it out'.

[basinboy]

In my circle of friends, several are heading back home or going back to work simply because they have run out, or are running out or cant live on what money they are receiving each month.

There is in my eyes anyway a large exodus of people leaving and going back to work.

DK

I have no doubt that what you say is true. I too am packing my bags, but the traffic is not all one way.

I left Chiang Mai early last year for pastures new, but, despite the poor exchange rate, am returning in just four weeks time. I will have a little less cash each month than last time, but can, and will if neccessary, forgo such luxuries as UBC. Nice to have, but not essential. Will make do with WETV, shop around for the best internet deals etc, and 'discretional spending' will mean just that. Fortunately I never sold my condo, so rental costs aren't an issue.

Its the businesses such as bars and restaurants that rely heavily on 'discrectional spending' that have suffered, simply because people need to buy food and pay their utility bills, but don't have to eat or drink out. I think this explains why so many of these establishments are either up for sale or have failed compltetly.

Bars and restaurants had it good when the exchange rates were high.

Now there's such a drop in rates, a lot of people are hurting and as you quite rightly said a lot of people now rely on 'discretionary spending', so you'd think these bars and restaurants would be decreasing their prices accordingly to help out their fellow ex-pats, who propped them up during the good times..... but instead choose to throw insults at those who dare suggest the very thought.

Businesses, large or small, must take the good with the bad, and,as you quite rightly point out, the bars and retaurants had it good for many years while the Baht was weak. But, regardless of whether they are Thai or foreign owned, such businesses are not immuned from the effects of the exchange rate now that the boot is on the other foot. If the going gets tough for high street stores they set about turning things sround with offers, sales and promotions. If bars and restaurants don't do the same thing, albeit on a smaller scale, they don't deserve to stay in business.

What's better, an empty or near deserted establishment that charges high prices, or one where the owner has cut his margins to get the punters in, and makes passers by think 'that place is full, must be good, must check it out'.

Often the big high street stores, are able to offer sales and promotions, because they can lean on their suppliers to come to the party, they also seem to have cut staffing levels to a minimum, in Australia at least.

The small trader faces the same problems in a down turn, but often have less options to fight for the sales that are still available. Of course they must still try all they can and only the fittest/smartest will survive a prolonged downturn.

Edited October 6, 2010 by basinboy

[uptheos]

What's better, an empty or near deserted establishment that charges high prices, or one where the owner has cut his margins to get the punters in, and makes passers by think 'that place is full, must be good, must check it out'.

A lot of these places, the farang puts the money in but the Thai wife / gf takes it out and pulls the strings.

It's not the Thai way to drop prices for farangs when things are bad, rather they tend to increase them in farang establishments.

However, if you check out the 100% Thai owned bars you will find that their deals are good enough, that no discounts are necessary....yet they still tend to make offers whether you are Thai or farang....they just want the custom.

[Nuff Said]

What's better, an empty or near deserted establishment that charges high prices, or one where the owner has cut his margins to get the punters in, and makes passers by think 'that place is full, must be good, must check it out'.

A lot of these places, the farang puts the money in but the Thai wife / gf takes it out and pulls the strings.

It's not the Thai way to drop prices for farangs when things are bad, rather they tend to increase them in farang establishments.

However, if you check out the 100% Thai owned bars you will find that their deals are good enough, that no discounts are necessary....yet they still tend to make offers whether you are Thai or farang....they just want the custom.

When I lived in Jomtien there was just one local go-go bar, totally Thai owned and run. When things got bad the owner increased the price of a draught beer in B10 stages over a 2 year period from B45 to B75! Yes, a two thirds increase in 2 years. Thats the Thai mentality. Once it went to B75 I never set foot in the place again. I don't know if its still going, but I wish my pension increased at the same rate!

Thai owned bars do have one advantage over those owned by foreigners, as the owner can actively work in the bar, as opposed to simply sitting and entertaining customers. That gives them the advantage of, if neccessary, being able to act as cashier, not only saving a salary, but also ensuring that financial irregularities, (polite term for fiddling) for which cashiers are well known, are eradicated. During hard times this could make the difference between a bar surviving or going to the wall.

When I get back to Chiang Mai at the end of this month I'll check out some Thai owned bars to see how their prices compare.

[gotlost]

What's better, an empty or near deserted establishment that charges high prices, or one where the owner has cut his margins to get the punters in, and makes passers by think 'that place is full, must be good, must check it out'.

A lot of these places, the farang puts the money in but the Thai wife / gf takes it out and pulls the strings.

It's not the Thai way to drop prices for farangs when things are bad, rather they tend to increase them in farang establishments.

However, if you check out the 100% Thai owned bars you will find that their deals are good enough, that no discounts are necessary....yet they still tend to make offers whether you are Thai or farang....they just want the custom.

When I lived in Jomtien there was just one local go-go bar, totally Thai owned and run. When things got bad the owner increased the price of a draught beer in B10 stages over a 2 year period from B45 to B75! Yes, a two thirds increase in 2 years. Thats the Thai mentality. Once it went to B75 I never set foot in the place again. I don't know if its still going, but I wish my pension increased at the same rate!

Thai owned bars do have one advantage over those owned by foreigners, as the owner can actively work in the bar, as opposed to simply sitting and entertaining customers. That gives them the advantage of, if neccessary, being able to act as cashier, not only saving a salary, but also ensuring that financial irregularities, (polite term for fiddling) for which cashiers are well known, are eradicated. During hard times this could make the difference between a bar surviving or going to the wall.

When I get back to Chiang Mai at the end of this month I'll check out some Thai owned bars to see how their prices compare.

I now a few on Loi Khro and their prices are the same as the farang withe no specials. The only difference is customers both farang and Thai go to these Thai own bars because the personality of the Thai owner is far superior to the farang.

[Thighlander]

Didn't read everything, so if repeating advice, sorry....plus off subject as to whether or not expat population is decreasing.

If the OP's condo owning friend really needs to sell then maybe he should do his math to set the price differently. If he bought in pounds and the pound has fallen, then he should calculate at today's exchange rate what his breakeven point would be after changing baht back to pound. Then decide how to price his condo....

If he bought at 60/1 for 1M, then he paid 17,000. If the rate today is 40, then selling at 680K would let him break even when he changes the baht back to pounds and leaves the country. Or if he keeps the baht, staying here, rather than bringing in more pounds at the lower rate.

Exactly, If he repatriates his money, he will have a lot more back home. He basically bought THB cheap and can sell high. I "bought"my house at 39 and sold at 32.50. Other than that, there would have been little profit.

I would like to ad that I was in BKKBank on a Friday at 11:30 am. There was not a single customer. The red/yellow thing is probably less of an issue than the extreme tightening of global credit markets. SOmeone told me that they would not loan his wife 500K on a paid for 2.5MM house, with good credit.

Prices will have to drop in Real Estate because they just seem too expensive for foreigners now. Most of Thais don't have the income to get good loans. Few would even want to live in a foreign dominated area, anyway. The Chinese are showing up more and more in some of the depressed markets of America (Phoenix, Vegas, South Florida), as well as the Australians and Canadians. You would be truly amazed at how many US properties are now owned by Deutche Bank, HSBC, and Credit Suisse.

Since most foreign owned condos were paid for with cash, there will not be a complete collapse, but there could be a large correction, and there are some liquidating assets here to cover their losses back home. I've been shopping for condos here for the last month (under 1 million), and my 68 square meter townhouse with a walled patio on a bankrupt golfcourse that I paid 22,000 is looking pretty dam_n good.

I will be going to the Tiger promotion again tonight. Three large for 129 THB. Meanwhile, the grumpy, fat, bald, old men will be charging, paying nearly that for one.

I think I have a crush on a FarEastern University Student, who wears the Tiger dress. Cheers.

mks.bmp

Edited October 6, 2010 by Thighlander