Hurricane warnings issued as Tropical Storm Paula forms in the northwestern Caribbean

[News_Editor]

Hurricane warnings issued as Tropical Storm Paula forms in the northwestern Caribbean

2010-10-12 04:09:32 GMT+7 (ICT)

MIAMI (BNO NEWS) -- Tropical Storm Paula formed in the northwestern Caribbean on late Monday afternoon, forecasters said, making it the 16th tropical storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.

The storm, located near the northeastern coast of Honduras, had seen slow development over the weekend as it became better organized. "Satellite imagery, surface observation and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the low pressure are near the coast of Honduras has become a tropical storm, and an intensifying one at that," said Michael Brennan, a hurricane specialist at the Miami-based National Hurricane Center.

As of 5 p.m. EDT (2100 GMT) on Monday, the center of Paula was located about 210 kilometers (130 miles) east-southeast of Isla Guanaja in Honduras, or 585 kilometers (365 miles) south-southeast of Cozumel in Mexico. It is moving toward the northwest near 15 kilometers (9 miles) per hour.

"A turn toward the north-northwest and then toward the north is expected late Tuesday and early Wednesday," Brennan said. "On the forecast track, the center of Paula will begin moving away from the coast of Honduras tonight and Tuesday, and approach the coast within the hurricane warning area Tuesday night and Wednesday."

A hurricane warning has been issued for the coast of Mexico from Punta Gruesa northward to Cancun, including Cozumel. Additionally, a tropical storm warning has been issued from Chetumal northward to south of Punta Gruesa in Mexico.

In Honduras, a tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of Limon eastward to the Honduras-Nicaragua border, including the Bay Islands.

As of Monday afternoon, Paula's maximum sustained winds were near 95 kilometers (60 miles) per hour, with higher gusts. "Additional strengthening is forecast, and Paula is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday." Brennan said. "Beyond that time, Paula may encounter some stronger winds aloft on the southern edge of the westerlies. The intensity guidance shows a broad peak from 36 to 72 hours and then slow weakening at days 4 and 5."

Currently, the National Hurricane Center said, Paula's tropical storm winds extend outward up to 110 kilometers (70 miles) from the center.

"Paula is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over northeastern Nicaragua, eastern Honduras, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico," Brennan said. "Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in areas of mountainous terrain in Nicaragua and Honduras, where these rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides."

Brennan said a strong surge as a result of Paula is expected to produce coastal flooding along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and on the Bay Islands of Honduras. "Near the coasts, the surge will be accompanied by large waves," he added.

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