Thai Economy Back In Recession

[kuffki]

Strong baht is a problem for people living on a pension and them wanting to see it weaker is far from being a crime.

yep, that is it all about. for some grumpy old man on a low pension isn't it cheap enough. And to think of a headline like "Thai Economy Back In Recession" as good news is some selfish egoistic mindset of an (economic) loser.

You seriously need to develop manners. That grumpy old man worked all his life to enjoy the rest of it. You are in no position to criticize or pass judgements.

I will still stick with my opinion - Thailand don't need people that call an economic crisis or a recession - Good News.

You can have as many opinion as you like. HOWEVER the matter in question was your manners NOT your opinion, but i guess in your opinion its perfectly normal to criticize others while in the mean time you have not grasped simple concepts of English language.

Just like most Russian coming over, do not feel the need to even learn few words in English, so when they out shopping they speak Russian and expect Thais to understand them, and when they do not, they abuse them. Now those people Thailand defiantly do not need.

And yes economic crisis or a recession is a GREAT news for some people and not only for the expats but tourists also, as well as Thai's, because in every recession there are always people who make money.

And if recession brings more tourism and more exports then the regular working local folks will benefit the most.

Edited November 23, 2010 by kuffki

[craigt3365]

Thailand isn't cheap ?

Great then. A good indicator as developing country.

Cheap tourism brings problems. Moving upscale, if ever possible, is better for Thailand.

For those looking for extreme cheap deal, you may consider Cambodia, Vietnam etc. Those who constantly bashing Thailand, now you have your chance leaving this 'third world' country LOL.

Retired expats living in Thailand like to see "cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Tourists like to see "cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Expats with income from other countries like to see"cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Expats working in Thailand for International firms on contract and are paid in $, like to see "cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Expats working in Thailand on a crappy salary like to see "strong" baht so it would appear they are earning "bigger bucks" when converted to $.

So i guess the non bashers would be the real cheap charlie's

yawn.

cheap charlies wanna see it cheaper and pray for an economical downturn.

Thailand isn't doomed by the strong baht. The exchange rates aren't that worse. Thailand is still pretty affordable for many expats. Its all good.

If you are so bored, why do you bother with these threads? Most of us would be happy if you found another website.

Kuffki: don't feed the troll. He's not from Russia and has multiple personalities. Not sure if it is two different people or what. But one post is perfect English, the next is far from it. One is lucid, the next is outta this world.

But back to the OP. Not everybody is rich. Some are here because you can live cheaper here than back home...and the weather is better! How can you call these guys losers. They are not. Just the people who bash them are.

Thailand is doing fine....actually, doing great. What the future holds? Nobody knows. But I will report on it next year!

[rgs2001uk]

Would you include retirees trying to get by on their pensions in your cheap charlies catagory? Most cheap charlies I know are good decent people.

This strong Thai baht is unprecedented; if you don't know what this means, it means its never happened before. Most foreigners who live here base their lifestyle on a certain rate of exchange, and this unexpected rate of exchange is making it hard for many of them.

The other thing to consider is how are Thais being affected. I would say the alarming increase in the cost of living here is affecting alot of Thais. A Birdy was 10 baht for a long time; within a short period of time it has risen to 13 baht. The government rolls out all these statistics but never really talks about the increasing cost of living or how well the general population is getting by.

Quote "This strong Thai baht is unprecedented".

Dont know when you first came to Thailand or what currency you use, however pre 1997 I remember the $ was always around 25 baht, today lets call it 30, so still an increase of about 20%, if you go back further the $ was about 20 baht.

If you are a Brit, I will use 40 baht as an average pre 1997, today what lets say 48 so up about 20%, I have seen the £ lower than 40, 36 and 38 baht spring to mind, if I go back far enough the £ has been even lower.

Of course for the millionaires arriving after 1997 this may come a shock, others carried out due diligence and others prepared for it.

I dont hear the "its only mickey mouse money" comments too much these days, oh for the heady days of 45 baht to the $ or 75 to the £, kiss those days goodbye, we all knew what we were getting into didnt we?

Interesting, but what you are forgetting or have no knowledge of, is that pre 1997 the cost of living in Thailand was about 20% to what it is now and bank interest rates were almost 1300% higher then today`s present rates.

I knew many ex-pats during those times that lived solely on savings interest. You could purchase a 2 bedroom house with land in a good area of Chiang Mai for 300000 baht and a family could live very comfortably on 10000 a month.

What is happening today and how it was 12/13 years ago is a completely different state of affairs. There is no comparison.

Its not that I have forgotten or have no knowledge of Thailand pre 1997, thats not the point I was raising.

The statement was "This strong Thai baht is unprecedented", this statement was wrong.

Yes I concur, not only are people affected by exchange rates, there is also the other double whammy of low or non existent interest rates and inflation.

I have no knowledge of living costs in Chiang Mai, I can only talk about Bangkok.

The one thing I could make a case for is many pensioners or retired people were better off pre 1997 than they are today, I would also urge those who think Thailand is a cheap place to retire to to reconsider, I personally know of at least 4 people who are having to reconsider their plans.

One guy has just realised that even if he saves every penny he earns for the next ten years he isnt going to have enough to retire here.

One guy bought a house and 3 condos thinking he could live off the rent, he managed to sell one condo, the other two are empty.

Another was waiting to pay off his mortgage in the UK, then rent his house out and retire here, the exchange rates mean this is no longer financially viable.

Yet another had substantial savings earning 6% at an exchange rate of 70+ baht to the pound it was doable, this guy now realises he isnt coming here to live off the interest.

Those are just the guys I know, I dare say we all know people in similair positions.

[Naam]

Thailand is my host country. i like to live in Thailand and enjoy the multitude of advantages the country has to offer. but that does not change the fact that Thailand is in each and every respect a third world country and will remain a third world country for many years to come.

:jap:

I disagree, I think Thailand is a developing country, especially if you compare it to Cambodia, Burma or Laos, those are third world countries.

of course Thailand is a developing country. the benign expression "developing" means nothing but "undeveloped" or "not yet developed" both apply to Thailand. that Cambodia, Laos and Burma are less developed is correct but besides the point.

but correct is also that Thailand is 'light years' away from having the basic infrastructure of a developed country. less than a handful of asian countries / areas can be called developed (e.g. South Korea, Taiwan and Japan). by the way, as far as i am concerned "third world country" is not a derogatory term but simply stating a fact.

[Abrak]

Thailand is my host country. i like to live in Thailand and enjoy the multitude of advantages the country has to offer. but that does not change the fact that Thailand is in each and every respect a third world country and will remain a third world country for many years to come.

:jap:

I disagree, I think Thailand is a developing country, especially if you compare it to Cambodia, Burma or Laos, those are third world countries.

of course Thailand is a developing country. the benign expression "developing" means nothing but "undeveloped" or "not yet developed" both apply to Thailand. that Cambodia, Laos and Burma are less developed is correct but besides the point.

but correct is also that Thailand is 'light years' away from having the basic infrastructure of a developed country. less than a handful of asian countries / areas can be called developed (e.g. South Korea, Taiwan and Japan). by the way, as far as i am concerned "third world country" is not a derogatory term but simply stating a fact.

Personally I feel it is a very typical example of a second world country. Anyone who wishes to describe it as third world clearly doesnt know there is no such thing as fourth world. In terms of quality of life I believe it matches many countries that are regarded as first world. To me places like singapore make the UK look very much second world and in general I would rank Thailand overall as in line with a declining first world country but I clearly understand on an objective basis that is perhaps unrealistic.

As for the economic statistics I havent looked at them in detail but they are broadly in line with expectations.Given the huge previous growth driven by restocking and exports 3 and 4 Q numbers were expected to decline. I suspect if you examine the figures you will no domestic recession just like you didnt see growth equating to 15% before. Quite frankly restocking and exports doesnt buy you a pint of beer.

The other point is that the economy is fairly capacity constrained at the moment but is still short of investment. It really cant grow much until investment picks up. Virtually every parameter is well above pre-crash numbers. Corporate profits are up 45% since the peak before the collapse. Next years growth will be very modest, it is coming off a high base, say 3-4%. To really get some quality growth we need to China to implode, because investment is needed. But there really is no investment anywhere.

[Abrak]

Bottom line. I havent even look at the number but they are very much in line.

There is no way there is domestic recession, numbers simply reflect external factors.

There is no significant growth in the economy because believe it or not everyone is doing very well.

Anyone who thinks this economy is either a huge dynamic growth model or in recession is delusional. It has become a little trendy in the last two months because it has stood out on a couple of parameters.

In essence we are doing boringly fine. We are unfortunately not the world's most dynamic economy at present nor are we heading into a double dip. The numbers are so boring and in line I cant be bothered to look them up and 4Q will be worse. The numbers are online at the BOT - you really should not base your economic judgments on red license plates or the number of people in the restaurant last night.

[Jimi007]

Thailand is my host country. i like to live in Thailand and enjoy the multitude of advantages the country has to offer. but that does not change the fact that Thailand is in each and every respect a third world country and will remain a third world country for many years to come.

:jap:

I disagree, I think Thailand is a developing country, especially if you compare it to Cambodia, Burma or Laos, those are third world countries.

of course Thailand is a developing country. the benign expression "developing" means nothing but "undeveloped" or "not yet developed" both apply to Thailand. that Cambodia, Laos and Burma are less developed is correct but besides the point.

but correct is also that Thailand is 'light years' away from having the basic infrastructure of a developed country. less than a handful of asian countries / areas can be called developed (e.g. South Korea, Taiwan and Japan). by the way, as far as i am concerned "third world country" is not a derogatory term but simply stating a fact.

I guess you are missing my point. After going to those other countries, Thailand is relatively developed when compared to those countries, in my opinion. There is some money being invested in the infrastructure here, at least in some parts of the country... My perspective is different than yours, I guess. Fair enough...

[roamer]

Bottom line. I havent even look at the number but they are very much in line.

There is no way there is domestic recession, numbers simply reflect external factors.

There is no significant growth in the economy because believe it or not everyone is doing very well.

Anyone who thinks this economy is either a huge dynamic growth model or in recession is delusional. It has become a little trendy in the last two months because it has stood out on a couple of parameters.

In essence we are doing boringly fine. We are unfortunately not the world's most dynamic economy at present nor are we heading into a double dip. The numbers are so boring and in line I cant be bothered to look them up and 4Q will be worse. The numbers are online at the BOT - you really should not base your economic judgments on red license plates or the number of people in the restaurant last night.

I'll base my judgments on the cost of coconut milk, if you can find a Thai brand in a UK supermarket its priced some 30-40% higher than competing brands. I know a UK company that spent some £4 million importing electrical cables from Thailand in 2009, this year they expect to spend some £5.5 million, but less than £1 million of that has come from Thailand, they now shop in India and Vietnam. You can repeat this across the whole spectrum. Thailand is an export led nation with a punishingly high exchange rate. BOT figures are economic history and no guide to future performance.

[mark45y]

Bottom line. I havent even look at the number but they are very much in line.

There is no way there is domestic recession, numbers simply reflect external factors.

There is no significant growth in the economy because believe it or not everyone is doing very well.

Anyone who thinks this economy is either a huge dynamic growth model or in recession is delusional. It has become a little trendy in the last two months because it has stood out on a couple of parameters.

In essence we are doing boringly fine. We are unfortunately not the world's most dynamic economy at present nor are we heading into a double dip. The numbers are so boring and in line I cant be bothered to look them up and 4Q will be worse. The numbers are online at the BOT - you really should not base your economic judgments on red license plates or the number of people in the restaurant last night.

I'll base my judgments on the cost of coconut milk, if you can find a Thai brand in a UK supermarket its priced some 30-40% higher than competing brands. I know a UK company that spent some £4 million importing electrical cables from Thailand in 2009, this year they expect to spend some £5.5 million, but less than £1 million of that has come from Thailand, they now shop in India and Vietnam. You can repeat this across the whole spectrum. Thailand is an export led nation with a punishingly high exchange rate. BOT figures are economic history and no guide to future performance.

Yes that's how it works. Value of the currency goes up less exports less manufacturing more foreign purchases. American money goes down more exports more manufacturing less imports. Both China and the US are trying to devalue their currencies for that reason.