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Can The Euro Still Be Saved?


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'The countries of the euro zone are hopelessly divided over the question of how to save the currency in the long term. Bailouts for individual countries like Ireland and Greece can only be a temporary solution. Meanwhile, an internal paper drawn up by the German government has revealed Berlin's plans for forcing private-sector investors to take their share of losses in future crises.'

continued ..http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,730375,00.html

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an internal paper drawn up by the German government has revealed Berlin's plans for forcing private-sector investors to take their share of losses in future crises.'

no such thing like an "internal' paper. both, chancellor Merkel and her finance minister Schäuble made it publicly clear a week or so ago that private investors have to expect "haircuts" in case of sovereign defaults. haircuts are anyway nothing new for private investors. it's what they experience since decades with corporates and sovereign bonds.

and that investors are aware of potential haircuts is clearly demonstrated by the yield of the "PIIGS" bonds. Spiegel journàsslists are trying to fabricate a sensation based of facts known to anybody who is interested in the matter.

Edited by Naam
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As Ireland's banks get bailed out the politicians keep talking and kicking the can down the road -

Next Portugal then Spain - everyone can see it coming

Do the tax payers of Germany have to bail out the whole of Europe - The banks have lent on property which nobody wants to buy , so who should pay the banks or tax payers /

What is the solution ? the USD has enough problems and is slowly being devalued to help the US economy / The Euro is undervalued for Germany but overvalued for all of southern Europe at this time but if the USD gets devalued further that is going to make the situation even worse /

Is there a solution without a banking collapse ?

T

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Is there a solution without a banking collapse ?

no way! Yewrope is doomed, there is no doubt about it. banks will collapse and gold will be €UR 87,579 an ounce (for starters). Thais will employ french chefs and housemaids, german scientists will work in chinese coal mines, greek fishermen will tend koi ponds in Taiwan, portuguese experts will tend the vineyards of Singapore and italian sopranos will entertain with Verdi and Puccini the diners of McDonald's in Hong Kong.

:whistling:

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and of course it is in the UK's interest that Ireland does not fail

'➢ 16% of all Irish exports are bought by the U K, €13.5 billion in 2009

➢ British exports to Ireland are 3 times British exports to China and 5 times the exports to India

➢ Trade with Ireland exceeds total U K trade with Brazil, Russia, India and China

➢ Every man, woman and child in Ireland spends an average of £3,607 per year on British goods, one of the highest per capita spends on British products in the world

➢ Last year, British food and drink exports to Ireland totalled over £2.4 billion, keeping it comfortably in the number one position as the world’s greatest importer of British food and drink

➢ Ireland is also the world’s largest importer of U K fashion and textiles. In 2009, British fashion and textile exports to Ireland totalled nearly £1.2 billion

➢ There are 43,000 Irish directors of UK companies'

from http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/22/412316/britains-problem/

I don't think you will see UK support for any bailout for Portugal or Spain ?

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Is there a solution without a banking collapse ?

no way! Yewrope is doomed, there is no doubt about it. banks will collapse and gold will be €UR 87,579 an ounce (for starters). Thais will employ french chefs and housemaids, german scientists will work in chinese coal mines, greek fishermen will tend koi ponds in Taiwan, portuguese experts will tend the vineyards of Singapore and italian sopranos will entertain with Verdi and Puccini the diners of McDonald's in Hong Kong.

:whistling:

Ha Ha - Yes you could be right ! :lol:

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an internal paper drawn up by the German government has revealed Berlin's plans for forcing private-sector investors to take their share of losses in future crises.'

no such thing like an "internal' paper. both, chancellor Merkel and her finance minister Schäuble made it publicly clear a week or so ago that private investors have to expect "haircuts" in case of sovereign defaults. haircuts are anyway nothing new for private investors. it's what they experience since decades with corporates and sovereign bonds.

and that investors are aware of potential haircuts is clearly demonstrated by the yield of the "PIIGS" bonds. Spiegel journàsslists are trying to fabricate a sensation based of facts known to anybody who is interested in the matter.

'no such thing like an "internal' paper. both, chancellor Merkel and her finance minister Schäuble made it publicly clear a week or so ago that private investors have to expect "haircuts" in case of sovereign defaults.'

and have they the agreement of all the rest in Europe ....

'Germany has insisted the EU must create a mechanism for an orderly restructuring of stricken countries' debts, with private bondholders sharing the pain with taxpayers, as a condition for making the euro zone's three-year safety net permanent. But EU ministers have said that will not apply to existing bonds.

However one bond market investor, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: "We just cannot see how bail-outs without debt reduction can work."

A plan to restructure Ireland's banks, which had to be rescued by the state after a property boom fueled by reckless lending collapsed, will be a central plank of the broader international aid package.'

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6AC1JP20101122?pageNumber=2

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I think the Irish themselves are going to have a lot more to say on this before any resolution

here a few views from 'financial experts ' on the situation in Ireland

from http://citywire.co.uk/global/what-gurus-and-the-media-are-saying-about-ireland/a451329

'Wolfgang Münchau in the FT said economic governance through the European Council had proved 'always cacophonous and often incompetent.’

The task that needs to be solved now is to stop contagion of the Irish banking crisis, he wrote, warning that Portugal and other eurozone nations are at risk of being infected, despite claims to the contrary.

‘The Spanish finance minister said last week that Spain is not Portugal,’ he wrote. ‘There are no prizes for guessing what Italy is not.’

Münchau noted that biggest creditor to Portugal is Spain, itself in a precarious position with exposures of $78 billion. ‘A default of Irish banks would spread like wildfire,’ he said. ‘It has to be prevented.’'

and

'Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund:

'I think they should go bankrupt. I think they would be better off, I think Europe would be better off, I think the world would be better off if they went bankrupt. In America we've had cities and counties and states go bankrupt throughout our history, and America did not come to an end, the US dollar did not come to an end.... Ireland is a tiny part of the EU. It's not going to end the EU. But it would be good because it would show people that they want a strong euro, a strong currency and that people cannot just go and spend money they do not have and in the end the EU and the euro would be stronger for it.

'Someone has to pay the piper, I mean this is ludicrous, are you aware of how much money they have borrowed? Their banks alone have borrowed 80% of the gross national product. There is no way they will ever pay it off and it will cripple the Irish economy for years to come. in the future Ireland will be crippled as nearly everything they earn will go to pay off old debts.'

'There is no reason that taxpayers around the world or around Europe or in Ireland should pay for other peoples’ mistakes. The banks who lent the money and made the mistakes should lose money. The bondholders and the stockholders of those banks should lose money. It’s that simple.'

and

Mohamed El Erian, CEO of Pimco, quoted in the Sunday Telegraph:

'Ireland and its official partners must convert a short-term liquidity approach into a more sustainable long-term solution that addresses solvency, growth and economic restructuring.''

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I see the Euro as an experiment in possible preparation for a one-world currency. Just imagine the more developed countries with strong currencies, strong resource based economies, reasonable fiscal/monetary policy discipline holding the water for the Zimbabwes of the world. The angst of Germans today having to wipe the behinds of Greece, etc. will be nothing compared the turmoil of a one world currency.

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'no such thing like an "internal' paper. both, chancellor Merkel and her finance minister Schäuble made it publicly clear a week or so ago that private investors have to expect "haircuts" in case of sovereign defaults.'

and have they the agreement of all the rest in Europe ....

'Germany has insisted the EU must create a mechanism for an orderly restructuring of stricken countries' debts, with private bondholders sharing the pain with taxpayers, as a condition for making the euro zone's three-year safety net permanent. But EU ministers have said that will not apply to existing bonds.

it does not matter whether there is an agreement or not. sovereign debtors have defaulted multiple times in the past and will keep on defaulting in future. the timing of Merkel and Schäuble was shite² but what they presented is nothing new because IMF deputy director Anne Krueger published the idea of "orderly" sovereign defaults already in august 2001. in the meantime CACs (Collective Action Clauses) were integrated not only in corporate but also in a bunch sovereign bonds.

most Thaivisa members who only know mutual funds, fixed deposits and since a few years precious metals have of course no bloody idea how many defaults of sovereign debtors happened and how often they defaulted within the last three decades. i am talking of more than a dozen sovereign countries, some of which defaulted THREE times since 1982, respectively twice after the last restructuring beginning of the '90s (e.g. Ecuador). moreover, it is nothing new or special that creditors suffered losses when defaulted debt was restructured.

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Sovereignty?! I hardly knew yeh!!

and of course it is in the UK's interest that Ireland does not fail

'➢ 16% of all Irish exports are bought by the U K, €13.5 billion in 2009

➢ British exports to Ireland are 3 times British exports to China and 5 times the exports to India

➢ Trade with Ireland exceeds total U K trade with Brazil, Russia, India and China

➢ Every man, woman and child in Ireland spends an average of £3,607 per year on British goods, one of the highest per capita spends on British products in the world

➢ Last year, British food and drink exports to Ireland totalled over £2.4 billion, keeping it comfortably in the number one position as the world's greatest importer of British food and drink

➢ Ireland is also the world's largest importer of U K fashion and textiles. In 2009, British fashion and textile exports to Ireland totalled nearly £1.2 billion

➢ There are 43,000 Irish directors of UK companies'

from http://ftalphaville....itains-problem/

I don't think you will see UK support for any bailout for Portugal or Spain ?

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it does not matter whether there is an agreement or not. sovereign debtors have defaulted multiple times in the past and will keep on defaulting in future. the timing of Merkel and Schäuble was shite² but what they presented is nothing new because IMF deputy director Anne Krueger published the idea of "orderly" sovereign defaults already in august 2001. in the meantime CACs (Collective Action Clauses) were integrated not only in corporate but also in a bunch sovereign bonds.

most Thaivisa members who only know mutual funds, fixed deposits and since a few years precious metals have of course no bloody idea how many defaults of sovereign debtors happened and how often they defaulted within the last three decades. i am talking of more than a dozen sovereign countries, some of which defaulted THREE times since 1982, respectively twice after the last restructuring beginning of the '90s (e.g. Ecuador). moreover, it is nothing new or special that creditors suffered losses when defaulted debt was restructured.

Why do you say her timing was <deleted>?

The structural problem with the Euro is that theoretically no Nation could get into a position of default and there was no provision for default or bailout. Obviously if bondholders are allowed to lend risk, risk free than they will be destructive. Bondholders fully recognized that it would only be a question of time before the free ride came to an end. Merkel's comments were described as destabilizing while I think most people would think it was more the end of the gravy train.

Genuinely, people do know about sovereign defaults bonds etc to a limited extent and find the 'free rider' principle of bonds over the recent few years something that is difficult to understand. If some German bank lends to Allied Irish why should the tax payer pay for that incredibly stupid mistake. A fixed depositor understands the idea of default but finds it incredibly difficult to understand the idea of a bondholders guarantee and as the bond holder realizes that his guarantee is a ridiculous concept in the long term you need knowledge to know the risk in the premium.

So it is just as easy to give the opposite argument. Which is that Greece bonds are not a good investment because the end result always has been and will be default based on the fundamentals or whatever (not that I have the faintest idea). But I suspect that 90% of investors have enormous difficulties understanding bondholders guarantees (and the extent of their worth) than the theory of default because bondholders guarantees are imho both a combination of liquidity solvency and moral hazard.

Merkel's comments to me are simply a statement of the obvious.

And as a simple investor, say Greece's fundamental probability of default is 95%, then the value is almost totally dependent on any knowledge of the effectiveness of the guarantee (or guess) guarantees.You know I am 100% sure there are people in Ireland that do not get the concept of why bondholders should be bailed out by them for lending to a bank that they have never been into. I am 100% sure that they get the concept of default which is the bondholder pays for the losses rather than the taxpayer. I am sure the concept they are trying to get to grips with is that the bondholder was stupid enough to lend to this stupid bank and he gets all his money back and they have to pay for it.

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Sounds like sense /

While the debaters debate the fires seem to have been lit under the Euro - with Irish banks share prices plummeting and see http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/24/414621/extensive-irish-forbearance-what-was-it-good-for/

I wonder if Merkel and Germany are looking for an excuse to get out of the Euro ? Could it be that they are looking to create a dual currency Euro ( If such a thing is possible )

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Weak members should stay in the euro - Germany should resurrect the Deutsche Mark, says analyst

'But now a new, more fanciful, solution has been floated: an exit from the single currency by Germany and a few sensible friends, such as Austria and Finland, who would resurrect the mighty Deutsche Mark.

Germany's presence in the euro is a problem for the PIIGS, since the export powerhouse keeps the value of the single currency high, making it difficult for the likes of Greece and Ireland to escape their crises by increasing their own exports.

Without Germany, the euro would fall in value, giving a much-needed boost to the competitiveness of weaker members.

Graham Turner, an economic consultant at GFC Economics, says a German-led breakaway is a "realistic prospect for 2011". '

Read more: http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/71920,news-comment,news-politics,german-exit-from-euro-a-realistic-prospect-in-2011-deutsche-mark-deutschmark#ixzz16C77m7uv

Edited by churchill
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Sounds like sense /

While the debaters debate the fires seem to have been lit under the Euro - with Irish banks share prices plummeting and see http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/24/414621/extensive-irish-forbearance-what-was-it-good-for/

I wonder if Merkel and Germany are looking for an excuse to get out of the Euro ? Could it be that they are looking to create a dual currency Euro ( If such a thing is possible )

Churchill,

Your theory that you have stated several times is the very fact the UK is addressing its problem will be the key to its success going forward. While I dont happen to agree, I do believe that recognizing and addressing a problem is the key to its solution.

If you look at the evidence in the Euro, Germany have consistently suffered at other peoples expense (call it guilt over the war) or a sacrifice to instill discipline. They grew at 1% real while Greece grew at 5% real (although it wasnt real). To be honest they are now one of the most competitive nations on the earth and are actually doing very nicely on the back of the false growth of their neighbors which has weakened the Euro. It is one of those things that is fairly obvious in hindsight but very few predicted (I dont know of anyone.)

Germany with all these crappy economies would be fine bu5 for the fact that their banks lent to all this rubbish instead of their own steady progress. Also I am not sure how Germany willo handle inflation and an asset bubble (which they dont think is a good thing I assume. Germans tend to be incredibly sensible which is why noone likes them.)

Conclusion. I used to think this whole Euro debacle would eventually make the Germans give up. I was wrong. It has made Germany and Ms Merkel the most powerful force in economics. Because while everyone was on a debt driven growth path they simply were steady. And while Bernanke is trying to play reinflate the bubble she is actually addressing the fundamental problem. So Churchill, watch the markets, in my view Ms Merkel is the most influential economic policy person in the world. Because everyone else is bullshitting you and she is addressing the problems.

SHE IS NOT TRYING TO GET OUT OF THE EURO SHE IS TRYING TO TAKE IT OVER.If Weber gets the ECB post I will think she has an agenda but I feel she merely wishes to accomplish a plan. A Bloomberg poll recently voted her the most beneficial policy maker for markets. I dont take these polls seriously but the concept that someone is prepared to address a problem for short term pain and long term gain is not difficult to understand.

I do however agree that the Euro lies in Germany's hands.

Edited by Abrak
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From http://www.financeandeconomics.org/Articles%20archive/2010.11.28%20Collapsing_Europe.htm

'The scale of the Irish financial threat is considerably greater than commonly realised and presented, because the relative size of the Irish economy is being confused with the size of its external banking obligations which are significantly larger than those of Spain or Italy. Cross-border loans to Ireland by BIS-reporting banks amount to the equivalent of $715bn, and the comparable figures for Spain are $534bn and for Italy $467bn. Of course these are not the only cross-border financial flows, because they do not include outward banking deposits and securitised debt issued by the Irish government and large companies. But they are the figures that matter.

So we must focus on the banks, because they are at the heart of the real crisis. The cross-border loans by BIS-reporting banks for all the PIIGS amounts to $1,982bn at mid-year, which is 32% of the euro area total and disproportionate relative to the size of the economies involved. So if the largest of these debtors, which is Ireland, is allowed to fail there would probably be a full-blown banking crisis even before markets turn their attention to either Spain or Italy.'

continued ..

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From http://www.financean...sing_Europe.htm

'The scale of the Irish financial threat is considerably greater than commonly realised and presented, because the relative size of the Irish economy is being confused with the size of its external banking obligations which are significantly larger than those of Spain or Italy. Cross-border loans to Ireland by BIS-reporting banks amount to the equivalent of $715bn, and the comparable figures for Spain are $534bn and for Italy $467bn. Of course these are not the only cross-border financial flows, because they do not include outward banking deposits and securitised debt issued by the Irish government and large companies. But they are the figures that matter.

So we must focus on the banks, because they are at the heart of the real crisis. The cross-border loans by BIS-reporting banks for all the PIIGS amounts to $1,982bn at mid-year, which is 32% of the euro area total and disproportionate relative to the size of the economies involved. So if the largest of these debtors, which is Ireland, is allowed to fail there would probably be a full-blown banking crisis even before markets turn their attention to either Spain or Italy.'

continued ..

I agree.

Ireland has a mere 4.6 million people and what do they produce....?

Greece, in comparison, has 10.7 million people and is also a dwarf state with no important role other than some shipping and local agriculture.

The 2 countries might be large in NAME because of their history but not in economical power in the world; they mean less to nothing in the world.

The problem is that the world Banking system is totally fcuked up and allow minor players to grow so big and to grow so big in problems...I recall a discussion here on TV where some members sreamed from the roofs that it was FANTASTIC to deposit your money in Ireland...yeah right.

If the Banking and Governmental system allow minor players to <deleted> up thousands and thousands of clients (remember the Icesave debacle in a country -Iceland- with 300.000 people ? ) we will never learn.

Now, a tiny country of 4.6 million people has to be rescued with € 85 Billion....€ 85 Billion of other EU tax payers' money .....it's unbelievable but true. :(

LaoPo

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Euro QE coming ???

Spanish bonds go beyond the parabola

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/30/420306/spanish-bonds-go-beyond-the-parabola/

'A muddle through option could involve the ECB announcing a ‘shock and awe’ amount of QE to hoover up a significant part of government issuance. With the ECB expected to scale back extraordinary measures at this week’s meeting such an option would require the sharpest of u-turns, but might well be the most flexible and easy to implement in the short run. Or we could be headed towards total meltdown…'

and http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/30/420421/barge-pole-european-debt-no-thank-you/

'In speaking to clients and traders yesterday it’s clear that there is extremely low appetite to take fresh peripheral or financial (especially sub) exposure. There are an increasing number of investors who will not touch these assets at any price for now given all the uncertainty.

That’s the worrying sign for those that think that a lot of these problems are overstated. You can have a well articulated view on why xx or yy is solvent but if the buyers have completely dried up because of all the fear and uncertainty then micro analysis becomes secondary. For this to all end happily we need new buyers of the mountain of debt that is step by step becoming friendless in the deleveraging trade. Finding these new buyers is becoming a difficult job and maybe we’re fast forwarding towards more sizeable money printing programs.'

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From http://www.financean...sing_Europe.htm

'The scale of the Irish financial threat is considerably greater than commonly realised and presented, because the relative size of the Irish economy is being confused with the size of its external banking obligations which are significantly larger than those of Spain or Italy. Cross-border loans to Ireland by BIS-reporting banks amount to the equivalent of $715bn, and the comparable figures for Spain are $534bn and for Italy $467bn. Of course these are not the only cross-border financial flows, because they do not include outward banking deposits and securitised debt issued by the Irish government and large companies. But they are the figures that matter.

So we must focus on the banks, because they are at the heart of the real crisis. The cross-border loans by BIS-reporting banks for all the PIIGS amounts to $1,982bn at mid-year, which is 32% of the euro area total and disproportionate relative to the size of the economies involved. So if the largest of these debtors, which is Ireland, is allowed to fail there would probably be a full-blown banking crisis even before markets turn their attention to either Spain or Italy.'

continued ..

I agree.

Ireland has a mere 4.6 million people and what do they produce....?

Greece, in comparison, has 10.7 million people and is also a dwarf state with no important role other than some shipping and local agriculture.

The 2 countries might be large in NAME because of their history but not in economical power in the world; they mean less to nothing in the world.

The problem is that the world Banking system is totally fcuked up and allow minor players to grow so big and to grow so big in problems...I recall a discussion here on TV where some members sreamed from the roofs that it was FANTASTIC to deposit your money in Ireland...yeah right.

If the Banking and Governmental system allow minor players to <deleted> up thousands and thousands of clients (remember the Icesave debacle in a country -Iceland- with 300.000 people ? ) we will never learn.

Now, a tiny country of 4.6 million people has to be rescued with € 85 Billion....€ 85 Billion of other EU tax payers' money .....it's unbelievable but true. :(

LaoPo

+1

What he said

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it does not matter whether there is an agreement or not. sovereign debtors have defaulted multiple times in the past and will keep on defaulting in future. the timing of Merkel and Schäuble was shite² but what they presented is nothing new

Why do you say her timing was <deleted>?

because she made the irish bail-out (and those other bail-outs waiting around the corner) a bunch of billion YEWros more expensive.

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an internal paper drawn up by the German government has revealed Berlin's plans for forcing private-sector investors to take their share of losses in future crises.'

no such thing like an "internal' paper. both, chancellor Merkel and her finance minister Schäuble made it publicly clear a week or so ago that private investors have to expect "haircuts" in case of sovereign defaults. haircuts are anyway nothing new for private investors. it's what they experience since decades with corporates and sovereign bonds.

and that investors are aware of potential haircuts is clearly demonstrated by the yield of the "PIIGS" bonds. Spiegel journàsslists are trying to fabricate a sensation based of facts known to anybody who is interested in the matter.

"All the kings horses and all of Naams men, can't put the Euro together again" :D

Down she goes Naam and with it your dreams of an EU powerhouse :)

Nothing can be done for the Euro except to prolong the financial pain it's going through...

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an internal paper drawn up by the German government has revealed Berlin's plans for forcing private-sector investors to take their share of losses in future crises.'

no such thing like an "internal' paper. both, chancellor Merkel and her finance minister Schäuble made it publicly clear a week or so ago that private investors have to expect "haircuts" in case of sovereign defaults. haircuts are anyway nothing new for private investors. it's what they experience since decades with corporates and sovereign bonds.

and that investors are aware of potential haircuts is clearly demonstrated by the yield of the "PIIGS" bonds. Spiegel journàsslists are trying to fabricate a sensation based of facts known to anybody who is interested in the matter.

"All the kings horses and all of Naams men, can't put the Euro together again" :D

Down she goes Naam and with it your dreams of an EU powerhouse :)

Nothing can be done for the Euro except to prolong the financial pain it's going through...

i am (as opposed to many others here) far away from being a dreamer. i don't hold any €URos, i don't care whether a EU-powerhouse exists or not, i care <deleted> whether Ireland or any of the PIIGS go bankrupt or will be saved by european taxpayers as i don't pay any taxes to any EU-taxman nor do i pay taxes to the taxman of any other country.

the latter of course might change one of these days when the relevant thai authorities wake up, enforce prevailing tax laws and tax retired foreigners on the amounts they transfer to Thailand (which i think is only fair). then the hoo-haa of the resident dreamers will be much bigger than the whining "the Baht is so strong, when will it fall again?"

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