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Average oil prices to rise 9% next year

By The Nation

Dubai crude oil is expected to post greater volatility and average at US$85 per barrel next year, 8.97 per cent above the $78 average this year, according to the forecast of Thai Oil.

The largest Thai refinery said in the forecast that oil prices will rise in line with global economic expansion, as well as tight supply from Opec countries. Factors to influence oil prices next year will be capital flows, international disputes, tightened regulations and natural disasters.

"Global oil demand will average 99.8 million barrels per day, up by 1.3 million barrels from this year. Over half of the demand will come from Asia, particularly China and India. Demand in the United States, Europe and Japan will drop due to higher energy efficiency and stronger push for renewable energy," the report said.

Meanwhile, supply from non-Opec countries is expected to rise, particularly from Latin American countries and Russia. This will help absorb a possible hike in the oil prices.

Thai Oil estimated that combined refining capacity of refineries in ASia will increase by only 120,000 barrels a day, mostly from China, India and Pakistan. Some refineries have delayed the opening while some will be shut down. This means the oversupply problem will be lessened.

-- TNA 2010-12-23