BURNING ISSUE

Early poll might favour the government

By Avudh Panananda

The Nation

Politically, 2011 should be a year of changes, even though the election date still remains uncertain.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has confirmed that he will call a snap election but his timing might hinge on a number of factors that are beyond his control.

It is obvious that the premier wants to ensure the best possible solution in terms of peace and stability before he dissolves the House, but will his wish come true?

After all, the yellow and red shirts, as well as the opposition party, have the power to advance or derail the elections.

For instance, as soon as the holiday period is over, the People's Alliance for Democracy movement is gearing up to lead a yellow-shirt rally in connection with the Thai-Cambodian border dispute.

Last week, PAD sympathiser Veera Somkwamkid was arrested by Cambodian security forces on charges related to "illegally" crossing into Cambodia without a passport.

This is the second time that Veera has been in Cambodian custody while trying to prove his claim that the border marker Tambon Nong Chan, straddling Thailand's Sa Kaew and Cambodia's Banteay Meanchey, has been relocated. For some unclear reason, Democrat MP Panich Vikitsreth was among the seven Thais arrested along with Veera.

As a former vice foreign minister, Panich should have known better than to walk into a trap and become a pawn in a power struggle that has ramifications on domestic and international politics.

If the Thai government can successfully negotiate his early release, it might be too late to undo the damage because he has already provided the PAD with enough ammunition to incite the crowds.

If the negotiations fail, the volatility in domestic politics, as well as Thai-Cambodian relations, will exponentially increase - because the PAD will have reason to prolong its protests.

With the seven Thais jailed in Cambodia, a so-called patriotic group will begin protesting today to pave the way for a mass rally by the PAD on January 25. However, having yellow shirts pour into the streets does not bode well for an early election.

Fragile though the situation may be, it can get worse. The red shirts have promised to hold at least two rallies a month, and seven red-shirt leaders are planning to apply for bail today. Despite the government's pledge to facilitate their temporary release, it remains doubtful that the judges will view every red shirt in remand as deserving temporary release.

Abhisit's government appears to be caught in a vice-like grip of two rival groups, each with an impossible-to-meet agenda. The yellow shirts appear bent on faulting the government by using the border dispute as a pretext, while the reds claim "injustice" to justify their agitation.

The Pheu Thai Party, meanwhile, has a lot resting on the timing for the poll. Despite all its bragging, the main opposition party needs time to set its house in order before it can contest in the election. If the poll takes place in the first three months this year, the party may not be fully ready.

It comes as no surprise that the opposition is planning to file a censure motion, seen as a delaying tactic to force Abhisit to opt for a mid-year poll.

By buying time, the opposition harbours secret hopes that its red allies can sway public sentiment, particularly in the Northeast where it will engage in a fierce fight with Bhum Jai Thai Party and a new alliance of Suwat Liptapanlop, Pairoj Suwanchawee, Pinij Charusombat and Preecha Laohapongchana.

Under prevailing circumstances, Abhisit and his coalition partners look likely to enjoy an advantage if the vote does take place early this year, because the further the poll date is pushed back, the outcome for the coalition becomes more unpredictable.

-- The Nation 2011-01-04

Will this ever end?