Critical Update On Bird Flu

[gazza13]

I am planning to visit Thailand for three months in January. Is there an effective vacination against bird flu?

[sriracha john]

I am planning to visit Thailand for three months in January. Is there an effective vacination against bird flu?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

covered earlier in post:

There currently is no vaccine to protect humans against the H5N1 virus that is being seen in Asia.

[a2396]

What is the Thai governments position, if they have one, on the raising of poultry in densely populated urban areas? My neighbor, in a suburb of an Issan city, has converted his whole back yard to a dirty barn yard for his chickens. Oddly, he is the only house like this in the area.

[UncleDonald]

I am planning to visit Thailand for three months in January. Is there an effective vacination against bird flu?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

covered earlier in post:

There currently is no vaccine to protect humans against the H5N1 virus that is being seen in Asia.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Partly correct, but the current vaccine that is being tested aims at this particular strain. Meanwhile critics point out that it won't be effective for the strain that is being carried by migrating birds from China to Europe. Which will combine with highly transmissable flu first?

[sriracha john]

I am planning to visit Thailand for three months in January. Is there an effective vacination against bird flu?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

covered earlier in post:

There currently is no vaccine to protect humans against the H5N1 virus that is being seen in Asia.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Partly correct, but the current vaccine that is being tested aims at this particular strain. Meanwhile critics point out that it won't be effective for the strain that is being carried by migrating birds from China to Europe. Which will combine with highly transmissable flu first?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's not partly correct...it's completely correct. There is no vaccine against H5N1. That is the strain of concern among the 15 avian influenza viral strains. There are studies being conducted to create one, but until testing is completed, it's not a "vaccine".

[chownah]

I am planning to visit Thailand for three months in January. Is there an effective vacination against bird flu?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

covered earlier in post:

There currently is no vaccine to protect humans against the H5N1 virus that is being seen in Asia.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Partly correct, but the current vaccine that is being tested aims at this particular strain. Meanwhile critics point out that it won't be effective for the strain that is being carried by migrating birds from China to Europe. Which will combine with highly transmissable flu first?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's not partly correct...it's completely correct. There is no vaccine against H5N1. That is the strain of concern among the 15 avian influenza viral strains. There are studies being conducted to create one, but until testing is completed, it's not a "vaccine".

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I could be wrong here but I think that the way to describe the situation is that someone has come up with a vaccine and it is now being tested to see if it is effective against the H5N1 strain of avian virus....but in my opinion this is missing a major point which is that the H5N1 virus does not transmit very well between people but this virus will almost assuredly mutate and form a strain that will be very efficiently transmitted between people. It is highly likely that any vaccine effective against the H5N1 virus will not be effective against the mutant strain that will cause the pandemic...I believe that given the present state of the art in producing vaccines you must actually have isolated a strain of virus before you can create a vaccine and the mutant that will cause the problem either hasn't happened yet or at least has not been recongnized and isolated.

[sriracha john]

I am planning to visit Thailand for three months in January. Is there an effective vacination against bird flu?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

covered earlier in post:

There currently is no vaccine to protect humans against the H5N1 virus that is being seen in Asia.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Partly correct, but the current vaccine that is being tested aims at this particular strain. Meanwhile critics point out that it won't be effective for the strain that is being carried by migrating birds from China to Europe. Which will combine with highly transmissable flu first?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's not partly correct...it's completely correct. There is no vaccine against H5N1. That is the strain of concern among the 15 avian influenza viral strains. There are studies being conducted to create one, but until testing is completed, it's not a "vaccine".

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I could be wrong here but I think that the way to describe the situation is that someone has come up with a vaccine and it is now being tested to see if it is effective against the H5N1 strain of avian virus....but in my opinion this is missing a major point which is that the H5N1 virus does not transmit very well between people but this virus will almost assuredly mutate and form a strain that will be very efficiently transmitted between people. It is highly likely that any vaccine effective against the H5N1 virus will not be effective against the mutant strain that will cause the pandemic...I believe that given the present state of the art in producing vaccines you must actually have isolated a strain of virus before you can create a vaccine and the mutant that will cause the problem either hasn't happened yet or at least has not been recongnized and isolated.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

To clear up any confusion. From the U.S. National Institutes of Health that is directing the vaccine development:

H5N1 Vaccine Explained

[ray23]

I am planning to visit Thailand for three months in January. Is there an effective vacination against bird flu?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

covered earlier in post:

There currently is no vaccine to protect humans against the H5N1 virus that is being seen in Asia.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Partly correct, but the current vaccine that is being tested aims at this particular strain. Meanwhile critics point out that it won't be effective for the strain that is being carried by migrating birds from China to Europe. Which will combine with highly transmissable flu first?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's not partly correct...it's completely correct. There is no vaccine against H5N1. That is the strain of concern among the 15 avian influenza viral strains. There are studies being conducted to create one, but until testing is completed, it's not a "vaccine".

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I could be wrong here but I think that the way to describe the situation is that someone has come up with a vaccine and it is now being tested to see if it is effective against the H5N1 strain of avian virus....but in my opinion this is missing a major point which is that the H5N1 virus does not transmit very well between people but this virus will almost assuredly mutate and form a strain that will be very efficiently transmitted between people. It is highly likely that any vaccine effective against the H5N1 virus will not be effective against the mutant strain that will cause the pandemic...I believe that given the present state of the art in producing vaccines you must actually have isolated a strain of virus before you can create a vaccine and the mutant that will cause the problem either hasn't happened yet or at least has not been recongnized and isolated.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

To clear up any confusion. From the U.S. National Institutes of Health that is directing the vaccine development:

H5N1 Vaccine Explained

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

We can all stop worrying I heard on the Thai news tonight that Thailand is the only country in Asia prepared for the pandemic. Of course they didn't say if the preperations were in the form of an effective treatment or body bags.

Anyone have some additional insight to where this statement came from?

And of course it's validity?

[sriracha john]

Yes... and no.

No country is completely prepared IMO. The report is alluding to statements by WHO officials who commended Thailand for stockpiling anti-viral treatment medications.. (remembering there is no vaccine, right? ). That is something no other country in SE Asia (not all of Asia) is doing so far, according to WHO. The "no" part has several points. One wonders how effective when the pandemic hits, will this medication still be effective? H5N1 virus has already developed resistance to 2 previously used medications... that's one of the virus's many talents. The other point is that it will take lots of other actions besides just issuing pills to deal with this problem....and wonder how well prepared Thailand is for that. While it's good news to hear that Thailand is doing "something"... but it's not like it's neighbors Cambodia, Laos, Burma, and Vietnam are in any real condition to do more... so it's a feather in the cap, by default more than anything else.

I guess the depressing and maudlin news WHO has been issuing lately such as,

"We may be at almost the last stage before the pandemic virus may emerge," Dr. Jai P. Narain, Director of WHO's communicable diseases department,

that they were hoping to project a bit of a ray of sunshine.

[Buff-horns]

looks like its already too late !!!

Bird flu pandemic inevitable, says WHO

By Lester Haines

Published Thursday 8th September 2005 14:14 GMT

The World Health Organisation (WHO) yesterday warned that a pandemic of the bird flu strain lethal to humans is inevitable, and would likely kill between one and seven million people worldwide, Reuters reports.

Dr. Jai P. Narain, Director of WHO's communicable diseases department, took time out from a Southeast Asia health summit in Sri Lanka to tell the press: "We may be at almost the last stage before the pandemic virus may emerge. Whether the avian influenza pandemic will occur, that is not the question any more, [but] as to when the pandemic will occur."

The current human death toll in Asia from bird flu is 63 - 44 in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand, four in Cambodia and three in Indonesia. Of these, only Thailand has a pandemic preparedness plan, with "a stockpile of anti-viral drugs", explained Narain.

Bird flu has now reached six Russian regions and Kazakhstan, wiping out 14,000 fowl. Narain noted that "migrating birds posed a serious risk of spreading avian flu around the world and Asia was very vulnerable as winter approaches", adding: "The virus has been detected in migratory birds in some former Soviet states where these birds traditionally fly toward Asia to escape the cold winter months."

Narain warned that scientists were now concerned not just about poultry, but a "whole range of bird species".

Russia, meanwhile, has struggled to contain an outbreak of bird flu in the Urals, which it believes could spread west with migrating birds. In Holland, the authorites recently ordered all free-range hens, ducks and geese to be kept indoors at night in an attempt to protect them from possible infection. ®

from theregister.co.uk

[Buff-horns]

presumably if this thing starts to roll bigtime then air flights will quickly be shut down to contain the spread. no global air flights !

[sriracha john]

Dr. Jai P. Narain, Director of WHO's communicable diseases department,  "Whether the avian influenza pandemic will occur, that is not the question any more, [but] as to when the pandemic will occur."

presumably if this thing starts to roll bigtime then air flights will quickly be shut down to contain the spread. no global air flights !

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Remembering Doc's words... not if, but when....

presumably when this thing starts to roll bigtime then air flights will quickly be shut down to contain the spread. no global air flights !

[ray23]

Yes... and no.

No country is completely prepared IMO. The report is alluding to statements by WHO officials who commended Thailand for stockpiling anti-viral treatment medications.. (remembering there is no vaccine, right?   ). That is something no other country in SE Asia (not all of Asia) is doing so far, according to WHO. The "no" part has several points. One wonders how effective when the pandemic hits, will this medication still be effective? H5N1 virus has already developed resistance to 2 previously used medications... that's one of the virus's many talents. The other point is that it will take lots of other actions besides just issuing pills to deal with this problem....and wonder how well prepared Thailand is for that. While it's good news to hear that Thailand is doing "something"... but it's not like it's neighbors Cambodia, Laos, Burma, and Vietnam are in any real condition to do more... so it's a feather in the cap, by default more than anything else.

I guess the depressing and maudlin news WHO has been issuing lately such as,

"We may be at almost the last stage before the pandemic virus may emerge," Dr. Jai P. Narain, Director of WHO's communicable diseases department,

that they were hoping to project a bit of a ray of sunshine.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Great explanation THANK YOU, sometime Thai news can be a bit hard to understand. So based on what appears to be a given that we will deal with. What are the best preventive measures we can take to protect ourselves as indiviuals?

I'm not leaving Thailand, so whatever has to be done has to be done here. I would assume that is going to require some isolation. Food stocks and water would seem to be a biggy. What time frame would be best to prepare for? What stocks of medications would be best to have on hand?

[sriracha john]

Indonesia confirms fourth human bird flu death

September 16, 2005 5:35 AM

JAKARTA (Reuters) - Indonesia confirmed its fourth human death from bird flu on Friday.

The H5N1 strain has killed 64 people in four Asian countries since late 2003 and also spread to Russia and Europe.

A senior Indonesian health official said tests had shown bird flu killed a woman who died last week in a Jakarta hospital after she was admitted suffering from pneumonia and flu-like respiratory problems.

"It's positive for H5N1," I Nyoman Kandun, director-general of disease control at the Health Ministry, told Reuters.

The woman, 37, died last Saturday. She lived in south Jakarta near a chicken farm, although health officials have not said how she may have caught the virus.

Most of the people killed in Asia since 2003 caught the virus from infected birds.

Besides Indonesia, bird flu has killed 44 people in Vietnam, 12 people in Thailand and four in Cambodia.

U.N. health authorities have said more cases could be expected in Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous nation.

The government has launched a vaccination drive for poultry but carried out only limited culling because it does not have enough money to compensate farmers and more than half of all chickens in Indonesia are kept in backyards.

The WHO says the preferable approach is mass culling.

In July, Indonesia confirmed its first human casualties of H5N1 -- a father and his two young daughters in Tangerang on the outskirts of Jakarta. But authorities could not pinpoint the source that infected the family.

[ilyushin]

Link from CDC http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/avian-flu-humans.htm

This page provides an expanded list of news/links to Bird Flu related stories pulled together into one single news file for ease of access.

http://www.thepoultrysite.com/LatestNews/D...ws&Display=6187

Edited September 16, 2005 by ilyushin