PAD Wracked By Division As Factions, Chiefs Try To Find Common Path

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ANALYSIS

PAD wracked by division as factions, chiefs try to find common path

By SOMROUTAI SAPSOMBOON

THE NATION

The People's Alliance for Democracy has become an organisation that is drowning in self-created ironies. Is it a "democratic" movement now? Is it campaigning to rewrite a Constitution that it has fought tooth and nail to protect? Does the "alliance" still exist, or has it become a one-man movement? Last but not least, how come the hardliners have refused to "give the street back" to the authorities despite their rally having lost steam and protesters reportedly wanting to pack up and leave all of a sudden?

One thing is for sure: the PAD is in turmoil. Reports that the movement may disband as early as April 6 followed news of serious internal conflicts, dwindling support and desperation generated by the failed campaign against the Abhisit government over the Thai-Cambodian border issue.

PAD leaders have disagreed over many things, the most important of which is the movement's immediate future.

It's not a surprise that each PAD leader will give a different answer to the question whether the movement is on the verge of being dissolved. The PAD leadership has been divided into at least four main factions; each has its own opinion about the umbrella group's future.

Sondhi Limthongkul and Chamlong Srimuang form the ultimate PAD leadership. They remain influential, albeit increasingly isolated. Sondhi last week triggered controversy by declaring that the PAD would campaign for a "No" vote in the general election, meaning the movement's supporters would mark abstention at the ballot box. Truth is, Sondhi is no longer a believer in the current electoral system, be it "No" vote or else. He doesn't want the election to take place at all, an idea reportedly backed by Chamlong.

The second faction is led by Somsak Kosaisuk, leader of the New Politics Party, which is the PAD's offshoot. He wants the party to field candidates in the next election, so Sondhi's "No" vote demand has put the two on a collision course. Somsak can still reverse his stand, but that will do more harm than good to the NPP's immediate future.

The third faction includes those caught in between. Suriyasai Katasila, secretary-general of the NPP, has vowed not to run in the election, no matter what transpires in the showdown between Somsak and the Sondhi-Chamlong camps. A source close to Suriyasai said his decision not to run was meant to prevent the PAD (which includes NPP as its affiliation) from falling apart.

Pipop Thongchai is also in this third moderate group. He's campaigning for a "No vote", but unlike Sondhi, Pipop does want an election to happen. Sondhi is advocating a "No" vote to mask his real wish to see the current democratic system overturned overnight, but Pipop wants a "No vote" to demonstrate public support for constitutional reform. In an interview yesterday, Pipop stated that if a considerable number of voters mark "abstention", the new Parliament would be under immense pressure to kick-start a charter overhaul.

Despite the conflicts and disagreement, the PAD and NPP are in the middle of a war. To disband the PAD now would serve nobody, and it would derail the "No" vote campaign even before it starts. No matter how small the number of PAD protesters remaining around Government House, they could still function as a staging ground for a campaign to question the legitimacy of the next election. Sondhi and Chamlong will have to think very hard, because ending the PAD's existence would be like shackling themselves. Their future political activities would face extreme constraints.

Disbanding the PAD also would probably mean its leaders do not understand their own organisation. The declining support does not necessarily mean the organisation, largely credited with bringing down the Thaksin regime, has come to an end. It might just mean that, instead of fighting a losing war for changes on the "outside", the time has come for the PAD leaders to look at themselves and allow the movement to naturally evolve.

-- The Nation 2011-03-29