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Central bank poised to revise economic growth forecast

BANGKOK, April 1 – The Bank of Thailand (BoT) is on the verge of revising its forecast of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year, taking into account the impacts of the recent earthquake and ensuing tsunami in Japan, mounting violence in North Africa and the Middle East, and severe floods in Thailand's insurgency-troubled South on the Thai economy.

Mathee Supapongse, senior director of the BoT Domestic Economy Department, said that the central bank would raise these three factors for discussion at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting to be held April 20 so that they are used as additional vantage points for assessing data in its revision of Thailand's economic growth target set earlier at 3-5 per cent for this year.

The bank still believed GDP in the first half of this year would expand positively, but it must monitor the impacts of the three factors because they occurred during March.

He said the bank must closely watch the ongoing floods devastating the South because they are quite severe.

The tourism sector will definitely be affected since its is now the high season for tourism in the South. The fisheries, transportation, and agricultural sectors will also be impacted.

However, should the situation ease quickly, he said, the impacts on the economy would be minimal.

Mr Mathee said the earthquake and tsunami disaster in Japan will negatively impact Thailand’s vehicle and electronics industries in the short run as many auto parts manufacturers in Japan had halted their production, but it is expected the situation will return to normal when local entrepreneurs arrange importing the necessary parts from other countries to substitute for the Japanese suppliers.

He said the mounting violence in the Middle East would fuel the continued global oil price rise, but prices will not go up significantly because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) can increase its oil production capacity to make up any shortfalls in global supplies.

The worldwide food price crisis had not yet affected Thailand's general inflation rate. In February, headline inflation stayed at 2.87 per cent and core inflation at 1.45 per cent. (MCOT online news)

-- TNA 2011-04-01